rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

I am currently locked down by my boss telling me I have to stay in this office until 5pm.

― Never fight uphill 'o me, boys! (President Keyes), Monday, April 29, 2024 2:03 PM bookmarkflaglink

that's the spirit!

It'll teach you discipline

it will teach you how to live under the iron whip of Barron Trump.

BDSM Trump

flag post for unwanted mental imagery

(not really. it's a verbal flag, or vf to save time)

how many yards do we have to march back?

back to the glory days of the 1950s and early 60s, before the longhairs ruined everything, and when people knew how to treat the founding fathers with some respect!

Of course, most of those longhairs grew up and continue to ruin things by going MAGA.

Long Haired Freeper People

Both sides now chanting “F***” Joe Biden” pic.twitter.com/Jbt7TU1b9b

— Maven Navarro (@MavenNavarro1) May 1, 2024

doesn’t feel like a great sign that the most politically engaged folks on both sides hate his guts

He said he would bring us together.

That has to be confusing for all the MAGA protesters who think Joe has a lock on the pinkos of America.

back to the glory days of the 1950s and early 60s, before the longhairs ruined everything, and when people knew how to treat the founding fathers with some respect!

Cool, back when taxes on the rich were 90%, the New Deal was in full effect, and unions held significant sway in the country.

😵‍💫

Long Haired Freeper People

God, some Oliver Anthony updating "Signs" for Trump people seems like an easy payday.

And the sign said
"Anybody caught without a mask
Will be shot on sight"

don't wanna be doing the Jacob Wohl "hipster coffee shop" thing but I do go into cardrooms to play poker every month or so which is a haven for middle aged white guys who love to complain about everything. it's the only safe space for conservatives that I go to really, where people just openly talk about how much they hate Democrats. it's obnoxious but kinda interesting to hear up close how these people think. anyway, they blame Dems for everything, and also think Biden is senile and will be "swapped out" any day now. same shit they always say. however I did notice that they are increasingly getting sick of Trump as well, saying stuff like "he needs to learn when to shut the fuck up". one guy is still burned up by the "I prefer the guys who weren't captured" comment directed at John McCain. another guy has apparently gone to "all" the Wisconsin Trump rallies but skipped this recent one because "he just says the same things over and over".

idk if this means anything exactly but the Republicans could have an enthusiasm problem on their hands. despite what you see in the media and in online spaces I don't think your average Trump voter is exactly willing to lay their lives down for him. they're so good at astroturfing this shit making it sound like there's a "silent majority" out there of Trump stans but when actual organized events happen barely anyone bothers to show up. we know that Republican voters would rather vote for Hitler than a Democrat but I think that's really all Trump has going for him right now. also the fact that he continues to insist 2020 is rigged might supress his own vote. like the thing they kept saying was "who cares, Biden's gonna win again", implying that "they" were gonna fix it no matter what. lmao if that actually convinces people to stay home this time around.

they are the drake stans to biden's kendrick

He's literally bringing nothing more to the table that he didn't already serve in '16 and '20. I can't be the only one who saw him speak at the court about the college riots a couple weeks ago and think he's trying to turn it into a new George Floyd/BLM situation to run on.

Easy to see why. Resentment toward "rioting college punks" is an issue that inflames more passions than "eggs cost too damn much" or "if I've said it once, I've said it a million times, that election four years ago was rigged".

the BLM protests were way more widespread and resulted in a lot of shit getting broken, these seem to be happening mostly at college campuses which you know they never go near

We're only six months out from the election and I'm just gonna say that with *all this stuff* going on — bad vibes everywhere — I'm sliding fully into the "Trump is gonna win" camp. I hate it and don't want it, but if he's still sitting where he is poll-wise even with everything that's out there against him, it seems to me that he's kind of solidly camped out in the "challenger vs. an unpopular incumbent" category, which is sadly somewhat impervious to the actual qualities of the challenger. This is going to be much more a referendum on the status quo as people perceive than it is a referendum on Trump, and that strongly favors him.

Happy to be wrong! But I feel more strongly that he's going to win right now than I did at any point in 2016 or 2020. It's gonna suck.

personally I am feeling a bit more optimistic, another HCR C&P here:

Yesterday, FreedomWorks, the right-wing organization that was backed by the Koch family at its start in 2004 and that was behind the Tea Party movement, abruptly shut down. FreedomWorks attacked Democratic measures for business regulation and social welfare because it embraced libertarian principles. Its revenue had dropped by half since 2022, its president, Adam Brandon, told Luke Mullins of Politico. But in the end, what did the organization in was the party’s split over Trump.

That split was crystal clear in Tuesday’s Republican primary election in Indiana. Trump won that election, but with only 78.3% of the vote. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who suspended her campaign in early March and has not campaigned since, won 21.7%.

Before the Indiana primary, on May 2 political statistician Tom Bonier debunked the idea that Haley’s support came from Democratic-leaning voters flooding the primary vote to hurt Trump. Crunching the numbers in North Carolina showed that Haley voters there “were not substantially younger than the GOP voters (41% over 65 vs 45% among reg[istered Republicans]). They were overwhelmingly white (94% of Ind[ependent]s vs 97% of [Republicans]), and were actually more likely to be men (51% of Ind[ependent Republican] primary voters vs 50% of [Republicans]).” In short, he wrote, “[e]very indicator suggests these Independents voting in [Republican] primaries are more likely [Republican] voters. They just don't like Trump.”

Political commentator Chris Cillizza today called attention to the numbers that landed before Tuesday. On March 12, Haley won 13.2% of the vote in Georgia (or 78,000 votes). On March 19 she won 17.8% of the vote in Arizona (111,000 votes), 13.9%* of the vote in Florida (155,000 votes), and 14.4% of the vote in Ohio (161,000 votes). On April 2 she won 12.8% of the votes in Wisconsin (77,000 votes). And on April 23, Haley won 16.6% of the votes in Pennsylvania (158,000 votes).

If Biden picks up even one in five of these votes, Cillizza noted, “it matters bigly.”

Happy for some optimism! But boy I've really given up on hoping for any relief from Republicans of any stripe.

Three high-level Republicans this week told media they would not vote for Trump, helping to pave an off-ramp for other Republicans. Former House speaker Paul Ryan told Yahoo Finance that he would write in another Republican rather than vote for Trump. “Character is too important to me,” he said.

Cassidy Hutchinson, former aide to Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, also cited character when she said she would not vote for Trump. “I’ve never voted for a Democrat in my life, but I would absolutely consider voting for Joe Biden this upcoming November because he will not seek to destroy our nation [or] our Constitution, and he has the statesman character that we need in an elected official.”

Georgia’s former lieutenant governor Geoff Duncan went further on Monday night, endorsing Biden, whom he had called in an op-ed a “decent person I disagree with on policy,” over Trump, whom he described as “a criminal defendant without a moral compass.” “Sometimes the best way to learn your lesson is to get beat, and Donald Trump needs to get beat. We need to move on as a party. We need to move on as a country,” he said."

the fact that that tea party group is shutting down is evidence that there is no market for what they are selling, and the number of voters rendered politically homeless by the GOP move from small government to racism/populism is too small for anyone to care about, except the likes of chris cillizza (who is now a management consultant btw).

the rejection of trump personally by a small but significant number of voters who are otherwise reliable republicans is a different thing, and has the potential to matter a lot, but we shouldn't kid ourselves that it's a policy disagreement or a durable "split" that will continue after he drops dead.

the number of gopers for whom "this time it's finally personal" is like 5 and they all on tv.

a miraculous conviction might swing that to double digits tho

Worth remembering though that Dems have consistently over performed their polls since 2018. I don’t see why this would be any different.

kind of depends on how much pollsters have adjusted based on that

I think Biden could withstand any one of the following conditions, but the combination of all of them is a heavy lift: his age/general sense that he's not very strong or present; ongoing economic unease regardless of what the metrics say; Trump's unshakeable base; left-wing fury over Gaza; the complete derangement of the Republican party and right-wing media; the lack of a compelling vision or message beyond "things aren't really that bad, and that guy's a jackass."

On the other hand, sure, there's all of Trump's negatives, there's abortion, there's the overall clownishness of the GOP (see also "complete derangement"), so, sure, there's a fighting chance. But ugh, feeling dour about it all.

Even if Trump somehow wins, Dobbs pretty much will keep Dems controlling likely both the House and Senate I feel9+. Going to be a lame duck single term where he'll attempt to flex some Executive branch muscle (likely incompetently), dismiss his criminal cases, and pardon people left and right. He'll need full control of all three branches to undo democracy. RIP the Supreme Court, Palestine, and protest freedoms though. Anyone thinking voting out Biden is going to make things better in Israel or "send a message", the leopards are waiting to eat your face.

feel9+

Times are strange, even my typos are getting weirder...

just wanna remind everyone that two non-consecutive terms is exceedingly rare

Geoff Duncan OTM

I don't think Trump'll win but I can't see the Democrats taking the Senate even if there's a Dobbs blue wave... at the very best the Dems will win Arizona and Montana, but they just have no chance at all in Ohio or West Virginia (or Texas, which I've seen some delusional people claiming is up for grabs). Senate is gonna be GOP controlled with at best a 51-49 split.

(someone from Ohio please give me hope)

The reasonable scenario: Biden wins, House goes comfortably Dem, Senate goes tightly GOP.

...which would be unusual in modern times

So no judges are getting confirmed

or Texas, which I've seen some delusional people claiming is up for grabs

Death, taxes and people convincing themselves that this election is the one where Democrats can win a statewide race in Texas

I've started seeing an attack ad on Colin Allred that just talks about Beto, it's hard to believe he's really stoking the passions of Republican voters in 2024.

Feel like Kennedy could be a factor in Texas more than most states

Guilt factor I guess

I do think Gallego will win in Arizona, Lake is insane and I think the voters there want someone more moderate. I hope Tester wins in Montana, he's charismatic enough I think. I also hope Sherrod Brown is elected for a fourth term in Ohio. Bernie Moreno is a really bad person.

If the senate ends up being 50-50 and the house is in democratic control and Biden wins re-election, a lot could be accomplished

Guilt factor I guess

Until the filibuster is abandoned a 50-50 senate is still a stalemate on the majority of issues.

except for federal judicial confirmations, I think (correct me if I'm wrong), which is of great importance

also, I may be projecting, but there seems to be increasing interest in getting rid of the filibuster

Not if you poll most Democratic senators #norms