I just think that if we’re going to talk about this, we need to focus on how this specific issue and its related events might influence the election. I made a hyperbolic statement, but one which does have some truth behind it, and people took it as a cue to defend Biden and their decision to vote for him. That’s fine, but I am not so sure that has to do with the thread
― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Thursday, 2 May 2024 01:35 (five months ago) link
I don't think you're wrong, I mean if Biden loses by a slim margin (which imo is the only way he could lose) it'll be pretty easy to argue that this was the tipping point. I really hope that's not the case though, it would be one of the worst own goals in the history of American politics. I mean its not like Israel wants Biden to win.
― frogbs, Thursday, 2 May 2024 01:41 (five months ago) link
I still think Biden’s policy could wind up being instrumental to a ceasefire given a few more proxy trial balloons and some grindingly slow pressure on Bibi
― G. D’Arcy Cheesewright (silby), Thursday, 2 May 2024 01:42 (five months ago) link
Or possibly “hope” but yknow, thinking and hoping are about the same
Anyway I’m voting for him, best president of my lifetime as I keep saying
― G. D’Arcy Cheesewright (silby), Thursday, 2 May 2024 01:43 (five months ago) link
Almost anything can influence this election, because it's going to be close. Obviously nothing that makes any group of potential Democratic voters less likely to vote for Biden is good for Biden. All of that's true. Biden himself for totally selfish reasons if nothing else no doubt wishes none of this stuff was happening, or least that it wasn't happening right now. From a strictly political standpoint, there is no obvious way for him to handle this that doesn't imperil him with one important constituency or another. Whereas it's pretty much free territory for Trump, because the GOP is just lockstep kill-the-Arabs. Sucks to be Genocide Joe, whaddya gonna do.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Thursday, 2 May 2024 01:45 (five months ago) link
You could stick it to AIPAC and J-Street and do what’s right in the name of humanity but
― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Thursday, 2 May 2024 01:47 (five months ago) link
You think the overwhelmingly Dem-voting Jewish population is going to abandon Biden if he refuses to continue arming Israel? I doubt it. But he will lose (and has already lost) a ton of younger voters who won’t vote for the guy who enabling the slaughter that they see on their screens every day
― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Thursday, 2 May 2024 01:49 (five months ago) link
(Not trying to take Jewish voters for granted, but just acknowledging historic precedent in that comment fwiw)
― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Thursday, 2 May 2024 01:50 (five months ago) link
Some people are young and Jewish
― G. D’Arcy Cheesewright (silby), Thursday, 2 May 2024 01:55 (five months ago) link
I teach many of them, and they are allpro-Palestine
― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Thursday, 2 May 2024 02:01 (five months ago) link
(at least those whom I teach, that is)
I'm not debating the morality! He should absolutely stick it to AIPAC and confront the Israeli government, force a ceasefire and a two-state dialogue.
Just from a U.S. electoral impact standpoint — since that's what we're talking about — the effects of any decision are hard to predict because the margins are small. So, sure, there are enough young voters and Muslim voters to make a difference in this election. Unusually so, really. But there also remains the older and wealthier voters who always turn out, and if you somehow risk losing some numbers of those voters, that's potentially even worse. It's a bad political situation. And those tend to paralyze decision-makers whose primary goal is winning an election. And that's where we are.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Thursday, 2 May 2024 02:09 (five months ago) link
It’s not great, but then again our “democracy” is full of shit so I don’t expect much. Wish this wasn’t the case
― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Thursday, 2 May 2024 02:35 (five months ago) link
https://x.com/MavenNavarro1/status/1785785576571994299
― Glower, Disruption & Pies (kingfish), Thursday, 2 May 2024 02:49 (five months ago) link
Both sides now chanting “F***” Joe Biden” pic.twitter.com/Jbt7TU1b9b— Maven Navarro (@MavenNavarro1) May 1, 2024
I thought the uncommitted thing in Michigan was really good. Voters signalling "we might vote, you didn't lose us yet but you don't have us either", is explicit in a way that voting for minor candidates or not voting at all isn't, where they get mixed in with votes who aren't attainable
― anvil, Thursday, 2 May 2024 02:55 (five months ago) link
I think Trump is going to loudly signal that he will be much worse which could bring a lot of those voters back in the end
― frogbs, Thursday, 2 May 2024 02:57 (five months ago) link
I think what was good about the uncommitted approach is it sends a clear message of "We ARE your voters that you are at risk of losing" which is a political and strategic message, whereas "We are absolutely NOT your voters, never voting for you" is more of a moral or ethical message. But there aren't always such clear avenues available
― anvil, Thursday, 2 May 2024 03:05 (five months ago) link
Yeah the "uncommitted" movement was smart and I think effective to whatever degree it could be. It was a good way to throw rocks at the window, it got some attention.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Thursday, 2 May 2024 03:23 (five months ago) link
And this is more than rocks at a window, it's inside the house.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/college-democrats-of-america-statement-biden-gaza-campus-protest_n_663278fce4b0849b2edded55
Now this is crazy. You never see this shit. They really fucked it https://t.co/V2VXQBrllS— Sam Adler-Bell (@SamAdlerBell) May 2, 2024
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Thursday, 2 May 2024 05:04 (five months ago) link
this is legit how all of you sound to me, fwiw
― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Thursday, 2 May 2024 bookmarkflaglink
Avg ilxor age: 60
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 2 May 2024 07:53 (five months ago) link
We’re worried about our Social Security
― Never fight uphill 'o me, boys! (President Keyes), Thursday, 2 May 2024 10:43 (five months ago) link
You think the overwhelmingly Dem-voting Jewish population is going to abandon Biden if he refuses to continue arming Israel?
A surprisingly large percentage would, yes.
― il lavoro mi rovina la giornata (PBKR), Thursday, 2 May 2024 11:51 (five months ago) link
Look what happened to the Labour Party in the UK after Ed Miliband (who is Jewish) criticized Israel's 2014 campaign in Gaza. Follow that up with Corbyn and I think at one point support for the Labour Party in the Jewish community was at 9% and the Tories 81%.
― I've left the box of soup near your shoes (Tom D.), Thursday, 2 May 2024 12:02 (five months ago) link
He made it Labour policy to recognise Palestine in 2014 and Maureen Lipman went apeshit.
― steely flan (suzy), Thursday, 2 May 2024 12:35 (five months ago) link
And hasn't stopped going apeshit ever since.
― I've left the box of soup near your shoes (Tom D.), Thursday, 2 May 2024 12:45 (five months ago) link
I feel like there's a path of conditional support (you can do this but not that would thread an electoral needle, so to speak, but maybe not. Even if there isn't, it seems surprising they haven't at least looked for it
― anvil, Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:01 (five months ago) link
Missing closing bracket there, should be (you can do this but not that),
― anvil, Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:02 (five months ago) link
My comment not whether it should be done (obviously it should), but it is just as likely lead to MORE arms going to Israel under the next (Republican) administration.
― il lavoro mi rovina la giornata (PBKR), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:05 (five months ago) link
*to* lead
more on the assault at UCLA, which was the culmination of several nights of harassment and abuse:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-01/inside-ucla-pro-palestinian-encampment-on-night-of-violence
Soon after protesters, most of them students at the Westwood campus, pitched tents on Dickson Court on April 25, pro-Israel counterdemonstrators showed up with megaphones. Some shouted racist, homophobic and anti-Islamic slurs, according to campers interviewed.They set up a giant video screen near the camp that played and replayed videos of Hamas militants. They broadcast a running torrent of loud, disturbing sounds over a stereo — an eagle screeching, a child crying — and blasted a Hebrew rendition of the song “Baby Shark” on repeat, late at night, so that campers could not sleep.They returned night after night.
They set up a giant video screen near the camp that played and replayed videos of Hamas militants. They broadcast a running torrent of loud, disturbing sounds over a stereo — an eagle screeching, a child crying — and blasted a Hebrew rendition of the song “Baby Shark” on repeat, late at night, so that campers could not sleep.
They returned night after night.
This article is tabloid-y trash, but I hope better reporting on how this group is organized comes out: https://www.thedailybeast.com/jessica-seinfeld-and-bill-ackman-fund-pro-israel-counterprotests-at-ucla
― rob, Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:23 (five months ago) link
Is this issue not one where Trump's anti-globalist, ultra-isolationist rhetoric actually presents an at least functionally "no static" brighter side alternative for voters like the ones in that college dems tweet? Worth remembering that, in the now moment, he's already starting to moderate his tone on abortion.
― Rich E. (Eric H.), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:29 (five months ago) link
OTOH not sure why the fascist mob bothered, when the cops are on their side: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/02/nyregion/ucla-protests-college-campus?unlocked_article_code=1.o00.Dkds.3bezcvmCB91u&smid=url-share
― rob, Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:33 (five months ago) link
he's essentially been wondering out loud why Netinyahu hasn't simply murdered all the Palestinians while him and the rest of the GOP are working on bills which make it legal to murder protestors. if it was indeed a "we're gonna stay out of it" that would be one thing, but alas
also kinda doubt he's "moderating his tone" on abortion, think its more that its an issue he doesn't really care about and just says whatever he thinks people want to hear. when he's speaking at the convention he'll probably start talking about punishing women again
― frogbs, Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:37 (five months ago) link
it's not insignificant, but otoh the College Democrats had zero influence on my vote when I was in college
― c u (crüt), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:40 (five months ago) link
College Dems were just seen as a bunch of lame hacks who wanted capitol hill internships. No one really took them seriously as any kind of influence on campus. I don't even think they were that big or active.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:41 (five months ago) link
X13 Tom D. I don't think you can compare the US and Britain in this case. My understanding was the vast majority of British Jews are Orthodox, many with family ties in Israel, while the US Jewish population is majority reform-to-secular with no familial ties to Israel.
― Are you addicted to struggling with your horse? (Boring, Maryland), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:43 (five months ago) link
Yeah I don't think College Dems have much influence on peers, but they mean something within the party. Mostly treated as an afterthought, of course, but as that tweet notes it's super unusual for them to ever challenge the party leadership. They're generally there to start building political resumes and move up the ranks, not piss off the party bosses.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:44 (five months ago) link
As with the "uncommitted" vote, sure, the political leadership can just kind of shrug it off as insignificant. But these things add up.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:45 (five months ago) link
The vast majority of British Jews are not orthodox. Wikipedia says 42.8% - but even that seems high to me. Also a lot of the stricter Orthodox Jews don't vote at all.
― I've left the box of soup near your shoes (Tom D.), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:47 (five months ago) link
college democrats are usually the hackiest partisans of all hacky partisans. they aren’t an influential organization or anything, but the fact that even they are frustrated is a bad sign for biden's youth support
― the defenestration of prog (voodoo chili), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:51 (five months ago) link
The fact is that traditionally the Jewish community in the UK was left/ progressive leaning - in terms of voting patterns - and now it overwhelmingly votes Conservative. There are various reasons for that, of course, but the slide accelerated because of a change in the Labour Party's attitude to Israel and Palestine.
― I've left the box of soup near your shoes (Tom D.), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:52 (five months ago) link
he has also said that he would completely halt the resettlement of palestinian refugees in the states and would deport any non-citizen supporting “pro-hamas” views
― the defenestration of prog (voodoo chili), Thursday, 2 May 2024 13:53 (five months ago) link
can a mod add "US Politics:" to the beginning of every ile thread please?
(I'm kidding but y'all can be kind of exhausting with this and we got 6 more months to go)
― rob, Thursday, 2 May 2024 14:01 (five months ago) link
US is an other countries as per thread title
― G. D’Arcy Cheesewright (silby), Thursday, 2 May 2024 14:08 (five months ago) link
We’d probably stop talking about it it tabes and milo promised to vote for Biden
Anyway unfortunately as you are probably aware, #onethread
― G. D’Arcy Cheesewright (silby), Thursday, 2 May 2024 14:11 (five months ago) link
we should have put #onethread to a vote, this borad is fascist!
― rob, Thursday, 2 May 2024 14:13 (five months ago) link
Abandon as in majority vote GOP? No. But does the GOP see an opportunity to make voting Dem less default for Jewish voters? Absolutely -- otherwise why would they be hammering the idea that "our nation's top colleges are antisemitic cesspools" so hard? It is most certainly not because they care about the well-being of Jews in America or elsewhere in the world.
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Thursday, 2 May 2024 14:17 (five months ago) link