rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

kind of depends on how much pollsters have adjusted based on that

I think Biden could withstand any one of the following conditions, but the combination of all of them is a heavy lift: his age/general sense that he's not very strong or present; ongoing economic unease regardless of what the metrics say; Trump's unshakeable base; left-wing fury over Gaza; the complete derangement of the Republican party and right-wing media; the lack of a compelling vision or message beyond "things aren't really that bad, and that guy's a jackass."

On the other hand, sure, there's all of Trump's negatives, there's abortion, there's the overall clownishness of the GOP (see also "complete derangement"), so, sure, there's a fighting chance. But ugh, feeling dour about it all.

Even if Trump somehow wins, Dobbs pretty much will keep Dems controlling likely both the House and Senate I feel9+. Going to be a lame duck single term where he'll attempt to flex some Executive branch muscle (likely incompetently), dismiss his criminal cases, and pardon people left and right. He'll need full control of all three branches to undo democracy. RIP the Supreme Court, Palestine, and protest freedoms though. Anyone thinking voting out Biden is going to make things better in Israel or "send a message", the leopards are waiting to eat your face.

feel9+

Times are strange, even my typos are getting weirder...

just wanna remind everyone that two non-consecutive terms is exceedingly rare

Geoff Duncan OTM

I don't think Trump'll win but I can't see the Democrats taking the Senate even if there's a Dobbs blue wave... at the very best the Dems will win Arizona and Montana, but they just have no chance at all in Ohio or West Virginia (or Texas, which I've seen some delusional people claiming is up for grabs). Senate is gonna be GOP controlled with at best a 51-49 split.

(someone from Ohio please give me hope)

The reasonable scenario: Biden wins, House goes comfortably Dem, Senate goes tightly GOP.

...which would be unusual in modern times

So no judges are getting confirmed

or Texas, which I've seen some delusional people claiming is up for grabs

Death, taxes and people convincing themselves that this election is the one where Democrats can win a statewide race in Texas

I've started seeing an attack ad on Colin Allred that just talks about Beto, it's hard to believe he's really stoking the passions of Republican voters in 2024.

Feel like Kennedy could be a factor in Texas more than most states

Guilt factor I guess

I do think Gallego will win in Arizona, Lake is insane and I think the voters there want someone more moderate. I hope Tester wins in Montana, he's charismatic enough I think. I also hope Sherrod Brown is elected for a fourth term in Ohio. Bernie Moreno is a really bad person.

If the senate ends up being 50-50 and the house is in democratic control and Biden wins re-election, a lot could be accomplished

Guilt factor I guess

Until the filibuster is abandoned a 50-50 senate is still a stalemate on the majority of issues.

except for federal judicial confirmations, I think (correct me if I'm wrong), which is of great importance

also, I may be projecting, but there seems to be increasing interest in getting rid of the filibuster

Not if you poll most Democratic senators #norms

I saw an interview with Mark Kelly from AZ and he was all for getting rid of the filibuster, which surprised me. I agree it will most likely not happen in the next administration, though

Ditch the filibuster and centrists will find a new excuse.

Anyone thinking voting out Biden is going to make things better in Israel

Good news! The only person who thinks that is someone you made up in your head.

Instantly regretted the snark of that post but c'mon, it's been argued out endlessly on here and it should be clear by now that the ppl talking about witholding their vote for Biden due to Gaza are not in fact under the illusion that Trump would be better.

xp the problem with the filibuster from the democratic side is not the centrists, they will vote in lockstep - it's republicans who the NYT describes as centrists but who are really not at all. The entire republican party apparatus has devolved into something much more feral. And I guess the worry is what happens when they assume control

Almost anything is possible, from republicans scraping wins of the presidency, senate and house, to a complete republican wipeout that reaches far down to state and the local level. But this stuff does not fill me with confidence

My housing plan would provide a tax credit that would give Americans $400 a month to put toward their mortgage when they buy their first home or trade up for a little more space.

That’s breathing room.

— President Biden (@POTUS) May 11, 2024

caek otm

You stupid lefties complain about means testing well how about some reverse means testing? You like that?!

On the other hand, there’s this https://www.axios.com/2024/05/11/bidens-red-counties-trump and meanwhile the RNC has no money and no staff. Seems possible the national nature of the campaign could end up spreading Republican organizing so thin they could do even worse than they have done in special elections.

wheeeeeee
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

Jennifer Wright, a registered nurse in Sterling Heights, Mich. She supported Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020, and to her the election comes down to one question: “Who is the best candidate who is going to help me be in a financial situation to retire?”

“Even me, as a registered nurse, I’m buying Kroger brand or store brand. I’m not buying Jif. We’ve all had to cut back,” she said.

what's the nation coming to when registered nurses can't buy Jif

My kids are forced to eat Jpeg

likely voters looking better for biden, but no room for optimism in this containment thread

Kroger brand actually more peanut-y. tastes more real. doesn't have that glorious Jif smoooooooothness though.

poke fun all you want but the takeaway from that article is that the Biden administration gaslighting people by telling them that the economy is fine and they’re wrong to feel pinched is a bad move, and that actually listening to and doing something for people who are working multiple jobs and still having trouble piecing things together is a better way to

like sorry i don’t feel the economy is doing great as i get home from one job only to have to go to another one just so i can afford my mortgage and groceries

Since no one else has made this joke:

“Choosy moms choose chaos”

I do agree wholeheartedly that “what are y’all on about, the economy is totally awesome” is a message that shouldn’t be pushed

There is a way out of this, according to Mark Penn. Stop being such a peace loving lefty, Joe:

President Biden appears behind in all the swing states and his campaign appears all-too-focused on firming up his political base on the left with his new shift on Israel, a $7 trillion budget, massive tax increases and failing to connect on the basic issues of inflation, immigration and energy. By pitching too much to the base, he is leaving behind the centrist swing voters who shift between parties from election to election and, I believe, will be the key factor deciding the 2024 race.

Our reaction to the economy is mostly vibes. The worst financial crunch of my life happened between fall '09 and roughly fall '11 when like table I juggled several teaching jobs and still just about broke even. Obama wasn't "gaslighting" me about the state of the economy -- my personal economic news sucked! But it's not as if Obama were responsible for it nor did I not vote for him (NB: I did not vote for him in '08; I voted for no prez candidate).

Telling voters that "everything is okay and you are just overreacting and don't understand economics" isn't a winning strategy, and it absolutely is gaslighting.

i read that interest rates won't go down because rental prices won't go down. or i guess this is what the fed is blaming on not bringing interest rates down. rental prices just won't go down. they really are just too high.

it's almost as if too much power is held by the rentier class

there was an article about the SNP a couple of weeks ago which had a paragraph which could apply to pretty much any centre-left party

Sturgeon, Yousaf and the like are always willing to do the right thing so long as they don’t have to fight anyone for it. Or, at least, not anyone too powerful. They want action on climate change, they just don’t want a bare-knuckled scrap with big oil. They want to solve the housing crisis, but don’t let those rent controls squeeze landlords too tight. They like to think they represent the nation in some sort of inevitable march towards progress. Their version of progress is broadly left-wing, but they don’t seem to see the social forces holding it back (other than unionists) as the enemy. This sort of centrism is what the commentariat thinks of as hard headed because they are generally against standing up to the powerful. In reality, it’s woolly thinking.

I have had to downgrade from Ben & Jerry's to a slightly less delicious brand of ice cream, so if the only alternative to Biden is a series of direct blows to the back of my skull with a sledgehammer, the choice is clear.

The thing is economics haven't represented the reality for the average American in quite a long time, but the metrics are the same ones used during the Trump administration, and those numbers are not painting the picture that Trump or anti-Biden voters are claiming it does.

The economy wasn't good for the average American under Trump either! It was good for rich people, business owners (but only some), and people who were already very well off. The point people itt are making, as opposed to the Biden administration, is that by the established rubric that has been used, these voters are simply imagining things were better under the previous administration, and they're largely being influenced by narrative.

Presidents will always claim the economy is great under them and was bad under the other guy no matter what the numbers say. But in a 40 year period where inflation greatly outpaced wages, more jobs were shipped overseas than created here, and we continue to use the stock market as a primary indicator of how well the economy is, despite fewer and fewer Americans even owning stock or having any kind of investments whatsoever....the economy is never going to be good for the average American.

I don't ever see that changing because capitalism is doing what it was always intended to - lower operating costs and increase profits. Political polarization now casts every election as a "please keep the fascist out of office" referendum, and on the Democratic side, any time a candidate beyond moderate emerges as a serious contender, the influential network within the party will collude to take down that candidate.

I will never vote for a candidate in my lifetime who I like, because I live in a state where I constantly have to vote against the evil guy, because of how oppressive it has become to most of my friends living here.

None of the things that are true today will change unless massive violence breaks out in the streets because nobody has to listen to the average American anymore otherwise. But few seem to have the stomach because for most, things rarely get bad enough to the point where they feel they have no other choice. It's a persistent state of "wow this is really bad but I still have much to lose and I have family that I can't make these decisions for".

The only major movements in making change have come through civil disobedience, civilian uprising through obstruction, or rioting.

But the average American buys into the narrative that only working with the system is acceptable, so after we win our little Pyrrhic victories, these voters go flock to the Republican who will get rid of the people blocking the Target they wanted to go to. Who then nominates all fascist SCOTUS justices and throws the country in the garbage for another forty years.

I'm not writing all that to say "life is futile, fuck it", because I recognize all the brave work many people itt do on a regular basis, organizing, and giving back, and actually enacting real change. I'm just continually depressed by the state of the cyclical nature of misery and just happy I'm probably on the back half of my life now and won't have any children to grow up in the worst of it.

i wish the really rich were more uncomfortable in this country. they should be. that's why they like trump though. they know he will protect them from the peasants the next time nobody can find toilet paper. where is the black bloc when we need them?

Bragging about any positive economic achievements (or indeed just vibes) to a monolith of voters is normal incumbent behaviour. If Biden/Dems weren't doing it they'd be just as damned.

The quote from the nurse was interesting only in that it's hard to accept that things like inflation staying consistently below 3%, or a tax cut or some other financial incentive would really be the only things keeping people who feel that way from switching, given that she already voted for the extreme of Trump twice (tho I do get that there are a bunch of people who voted for Obama twice and Trump twice).