rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

https://i.imgur.com/Rx7kBq0.png

Don’t be fooled by the stonks that he got

i think he really is worried about RFK lmao

https://i.imgur.com/nF3ue9J.png

Going to announce that he had TWO brain worms.

The best worms, people are saying

“Oh I love the worms… have you seen the Dune? That’s the kind of worms we will have. Big beautiful worms…only the best.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/democrats-freakout-over-biden-00160047

the twist ending is that biden will win even with the electoral system but the electoral system will collapse, and maga scotus will confirm potus scrotus.

Politico isn't happy unless someone is freaking out over whatever is happening in politics. It's their bread and butter.

the word "genocide" does not appear in anyones freakout calculus in the piece.

Sad lol, I just assumed it would be but I'm not sure why I assumed that.

Feel like this thread is not doing a very good job of containing “Trump is gonna win.”

I save my containing talent for this thread, my genius for my life.

trump is gonna win . . . conviction in his campaign finance violation case ;)

Perhaps Lost in the Polling: The Race Is Still Close

By Nate Cohn

There’s no way around it: The news for President Biden hasn’t been great.

He has trailed in national and battleground state polls for months. His approval ratings are among the lowest on record for a first-term president. He’s struggling among young, Black and Hispanic voters. And all of this against an opponent who faces several criminal trials, including one that could have a verdict this week.

But the news is not all bad for Mr. Biden — or, at least, it’s not all that bad. The race is still pretty close. It’s close enough that he would have a very serious chance to win if the election were held tomorrow. And of course, the race won’t be held tomorrow: There are five-plus months to go for a possible Biden comeback.

Together, there’s a case for taking a glass-almost-half-full perspective on Mr. Biden’s chances. Right or wrong, it’s a case that maybe hasn’t gotten quite as much attention as it deserves.

The electoral map
How is the race close? Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

If Mr. Biden won those battleground states, he’d probably be re-elected as president. They would combine to give him exactly 270 electoral college votes provided he held everywhere he won by six percentage points or more in 2020. That means he could lose all of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and so on, and still win.

Yes, Donald J. Trump does lead most polls of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But the race is close in all three states.

In our recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls, Mr. Trump led by an average of one percentage point across the three states among likely voters. The 538 and RealClearPolitics polling averages both show Mr. Trump ahead by just one point across those states, and Mr. Trump doesn’t appear to lead by more than around two points in any of them.

As a consequence, Mr. Biden is within two points in states worth 270 electoral votes. Looking back over the longer run, his two-point deficit in the key states makes this election closer than those heading into Election Day in 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2008. If the election were held tomorrow, it wouldn’t be especially surprising if Mr. Biden won by narrowly sweeping these three states.

In fact, Mr. Biden could win if the election were held tomorrow even if the polls had an above-average year in terms of accuracy, simply because the polls don’t have to be off by much at all for him to prevail.

One reason Mr. Biden’s resilience in these states may be overlooked is that many organizations, including The Times, have been conducting polls of all six battleground states. Mr. Biden trails narrowly in the three Northern states, but Mr. Trump often claims a significant lead in the three Sun Belt states. Together, it’s clearly a bad set of numbers for Mr. Biden. But his overall deficit across these six states may overstate his challenge.

Demographics
Why is Mr. Biden competitive in the Northern battlegrounds? White voters and older voters.

In Times/Siena polling this year, Mr. Biden is running only about a point behind how he fared among white voters in 2020. For good measure, he’s also faring a bit better than he did among voters over 65. Other polls tell a similar story.

Mr. Biden’s resilience among white voters and older voters hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, but it’s very important. White voters will make up around 70 percent of the electorate in November, and their share will be even higher in the Northern battleground states that Mr. Biden will be counting on. And voters over 65 will outnumber those under 30.

In a sense, Mr. Biden has already done what would ordinarily be the hard part for a Democrat. All he needs now is what’s supposed to be the easy part: getting the usual big Democratic margins among young, Black and Hispanic voters.

Turnout
We’ve spent a lot of time explaining that Democratic successes in special elections can mostly be attributed to a pronounced advantage among the most highly engaged, high-turnout voters. As such, Democrats’ big wins in special elections do nothing to really disprove Mr. Biden’s weakness in general election polling.

But his strength among high-turnout voters is nonetheless an important edge. We just wrote about this last week, so I won’t dwell too much on it. But it raises the possibility that Mr. Biden may yet be able to win back many of the less engaged voters who support Mr. Trump in the polls. And if not, perhaps many of his disengaged defectors simply won’t show up.

Many months to go
The polls aren’t perfect — they’ve been off before and they’ll be off again. They wouldn’t really need to be off-target by much at all for Mr. Biden to squeak out a victory.

But even if the polls were exactly “right,” in the sense that Mr. Trump would win if the election were held tomorrow by the precise margins implied by the recent polls, Mr. Biden would still have a very real chance to win in November.

More than five months, after all, is a very long time in presidential politics. A billion dollars in advertisements, the debates, a possible conviction and countless other events are all still ahead. This year, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a large number of so-called “double-haters,” and Mr. Trump’s dependence on traditionally Democratic young and nonwhite voters make it even easier to see how the race might become volatile. The issue of democracy may not dominate the news today, but it will almost certainly be a central theme in the final weeks — perhaps especially if Mr. Trump is ahead.

Mr. Biden may be down slightly today, but there’s still a long way to go.

What a weird moment

You may be down slightly today, but there's still a long way to go.

has anyone read one of those "here's what happens if trump is convicted" explainers?

also i am pretty confident that if he's convicted, that will help him in november. this is, indeed, a weird moment

WITCH HUNT

The liberals and the crooked judges will do ANYTHING to stop Trump from making American great again!

who can even know what the charges are ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

i understand the eternal pessimism regarding Trump but i do not see any possible way conviction actually helps him

even if that alone doesn't change too many actual minds it still keeps him mad and on the defense which is not where you want your candidate to be, not to mention it might tie him up when he needs to be out on the trail

best i can say regarding the polls is that even if they are more or less accurate as things stand today they do still have RFK getting 12-13% and Trump outperforming nearly every downballot R, while Biden trails a bunch of the downballot Ds significantly. if that was how it actually ended I think it would be one of the all-time strangest results in election history. just saying I think there's a lot of room for things to move and it feels like way more people could be persuaded to vote for Biden than Trump

x-post-He will appeal the NY verdict if he's convicted on any of the charges and who knows when the appellate court will take up the matter

Spoiler alert, the appeals will get kicked down the road until after the election.

Onto the thread topic, I've been surprised to hear some normally optimistic friends who follow politics pretty closely and had been pretty confident that Biden was going to win start to back away from that position and, in fact, a couple of them told me they are steeling themselves for a likely Trump win. I can't tell them what to think or how to prepare, but depressing when the folks who've usually helped keep me from sinking into the despair are even starting to doubt Biden's chances.

that's what the thread is for!

I'm with frogbs: I see no reason to despair yet.

i do not see any possible way conviction actually helps him

Purely in terms of votes cast, as opposed to fund-raising, I agree. Voters who would be outraged at his criminal conviction are already outraged at his indictment and trial. I'm thinking he has maxed out all the value he can derive from the "I'm being persecuted like nobody else in all of history" narrative, except for skimming off some more campaign money. It remains to be seen if more money can translate into more votes. This is such a weird election.

normally optimistic friends of mine have settled fully into 'don't count your chickens before they're hatched like we did with hillary' mode. i think lots of people were gearing up to demonstrate they'd learned that lesson in 2020 before march and the covid shutdown turned 2coops v sleepy joe into unprecedented chaos. i think the polls are reflecting that in some fashion, in the same way that 2coops' MAGAts are clearly outnumbered but then again way, way, way louder than everyone else, because they tend to be rude assholes. will they be loud enough to drown out how effectively or not "conservative" state legislatures and judges and mike johnson's house of representatives will cheat when 2scoops legit loses, is what i wonder

And, perhaps, they are the people who pick up phones and speak to pollsters.

I wish we could contain all the witty Trump nicknames somewhere

It remains to be seen if more money can translate into more votes. This is such a weird election.

that would be good for Biden then, given he's way outraised Trump and has already bought up most of the fall advertising, also he isn't spending 8 figure sums on legal bills

Onto the thread topic, I've been surprised to hear some normally optimistic friends who follow politics pretty closely and had been pretty confident that Biden was going to win start to back away from that position and, in fact, a couple of them told me they are steeling themselves for a likely Trump win.

I get where this comes from I mean if you follow politics closely it's pretty disheartening right now like Trump is on trial for 34 felonies and is alternating between falling asleep in court and raving like a lunatic outside of it, and yet it's not moving the needle at all, in fact that DJT stock is constantly going up despite the company losing unbelievable sums of money, everything seems so divorced from reality right now

then again maybe it's good to remember most people don't follow this like we do, they may know Trump is on trial but have no clue how it's actually going, if he's found guilty and it still doesn't change anything then I'd be kinda worried

I mean this morning I was thinking about Watergate, how we were told in school (and through documentaries and feature films) that this was one of the biggest scandals in US Political history, and now we've got a guy just doing illegal shit out in the open, stuff way worse than Watergate, and at such a high frequency that nobody can even keep track of it all, and it's currently being debated whether or not this will actually HELP him in the end, maybe a sign that the American empire is in free fall

if he gets convicted it's totally going to hurt Trump and help Biden and it'd be insane to think otherwise. everybody keeps focusing on two groups - his 'base' (a word I'm thoroughly sick of now), or low-info voters who might be easily duped by the narrative that this is a political witchhunt. yeah ok, those folks are going to dig in w/ Trump, but they aren't enough to win by themselves.

Independents, who largely broke for Biden in 2020, have been breaking back towards Trump so far in the polls. hard for me to believe a few percent of them don't either decide not to vote at all, or switch their vote to Biden. and right now a small bump changes everything for either side.

it's not going to be the cataclysmic shift it should be because of polarized America, so the question should really be...how much will it affect it, and will it last? the 'grab em by the pussy' scandal didn't have the lasting damage the Clinton campaign expected (if they'd just timed it a little later though it'd have killed his campaign).

personally, i'm doubting it causes anything like even a 6 point swing, but 3-4 in realm of possibility.

ultimately though I don't think Biden supporters should have any confidence right now, and the whole 'well the polls are wrong' vibes are cringe. the polls aren't wrong, however they're a snapshot of now, not a predictor of later. it's not a matter of movement, it's in what direction do things move.

It often feels like Trump's support is a fixed quantity and won't budge much in terms of size, but it's hard to gauge where the enthusiasm for him fades off from "he's our gift from god" into "I hate all politicians, but that crazy fucker doesn't act like them so voting for him feels like kicking the politicians in the nuts." Trump fatigue may keep that second group from showing up in full strength.

otoh, it feels more like Biden's support is weaker but has lots of elasticity and room to improve. Mainly he should be fighting to strengthen his image, directing as much attention as he can to the good parts of his record. Reminding people how bad and dangerous Trump is good, but should be a minor point of emphasis. Most people know that without being told. It's just that they don't want to think about Trump any more than absolutely necessary and have been trying to forget about him as much as they can.

maybe a sign that the American empire is in free fall

God willing

"I hate all politicians, but that crazy fucker doesn't act like them so voting for him feels like kicking the politicians in the nuts."

trouble is this group really seems to not like the dictator shit which Trump is leaning pretty hard into

yeah, seems like his weakest area of support. the more often he runs, the more he looks like 'another politician'.

Is 2coops like "two scoops" but ... coups?

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all. I mean, for God's sake a jury found that he sexually assaulted someone and that had no impact...

America is absolutely circling the drain like the Soviet Union was, as its obsession with militarism and octogenarian leadership are exactly the same

Not to mention an absolutely benighted hinterland of bigotry, substance abuse, worship of violence, and rampant superstition

Oh, the toxic masculinity absolutely mirrors what you see in Russia and failed Soviet satellite states like Armenia

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all.

"No impact at all" is a stretch. "Some impact" on some voters, sure. Not enough to make him lose in November, I don't think.

I don't think it'll move the dial in any significant way. He's already had two judgements against him, admittedly civil, but one involving sexual assault. And nothing happened. On the other hand, if there's a hung jury and it's a mistrial, that will be huge. That will have an impact.

So you're saying "Heads, GOP wins, tails Dems lose."

I mean, I haven't been following the trial, as you can see from the paucity of Soto posts on the Trump thread -- I'm sick of the coverage even though of course it's significant -- but if a conviction moves enough people in Scranton and Kenosha that's a good thing.

Also: should the United States have a future, the conviction of a former president matters for precedent. Fucking Nixon wasn't even brought to court.

Very much hoping things will turn around, but if they do, I don't think Trump's legal shenanigans will play much of a role...

it would help if there were a simple answer to the question "what federal crime has trump been accused of?" apparently there are three of them, and jurors can pick and choose cafeteria style, and they don't have to all pick the same one.