rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

i do not see any possible way conviction actually helps him

Purely in terms of votes cast, as opposed to fund-raising, I agree. Voters who would be outraged at his criminal conviction are already outraged at his indictment and trial. I'm thinking he has maxed out all the value he can derive from the "I'm being persecuted like nobody else in all of history" narrative, except for skimming off some more campaign money. It remains to be seen if more money can translate into more votes. This is such a weird election.

normally optimistic friends of mine have settled fully into 'don't count your chickens before they're hatched like we did with hillary' mode. i think lots of people were gearing up to demonstrate they'd learned that lesson in 2020 before march and the covid shutdown turned 2coops v sleepy joe into unprecedented chaos. i think the polls are reflecting that in some fashion, in the same way that 2coops' MAGAts are clearly outnumbered but then again way, way, way louder than everyone else, because they tend to be rude assholes. will they be loud enough to drown out how effectively or not "conservative" state legislatures and judges and mike johnson's house of representatives will cheat when 2scoops legit loses, is what i wonder

And, perhaps, they are the people who pick up phones and speak to pollsters.

I wish we could contain all the witty Trump nicknames somewhere

It remains to be seen if more money can translate into more votes. This is such a weird election.

that would be good for Biden then, given he's way outraised Trump and has already bought up most of the fall advertising, also he isn't spending 8 figure sums on legal bills

Onto the thread topic, I've been surprised to hear some normally optimistic friends who follow politics pretty closely and had been pretty confident that Biden was going to win start to back away from that position and, in fact, a couple of them told me they are steeling themselves for a likely Trump win.

I get where this comes from I mean if you follow politics closely it's pretty disheartening right now like Trump is on trial for 34 felonies and is alternating between falling asleep in court and raving like a lunatic outside of it, and yet it's not moving the needle at all, in fact that DJT stock is constantly going up despite the company losing unbelievable sums of money, everything seems so divorced from reality right now

then again maybe it's good to remember most people don't follow this like we do, they may know Trump is on trial but have no clue how it's actually going, if he's found guilty and it still doesn't change anything then I'd be kinda worried

I mean this morning I was thinking about Watergate, how we were told in school (and through documentaries and feature films) that this was one of the biggest scandals in US Political history, and now we've got a guy just doing illegal shit out in the open, stuff way worse than Watergate, and at such a high frequency that nobody can even keep track of it all, and it's currently being debated whether or not this will actually HELP him in the end, maybe a sign that the American empire is in free fall

if he gets convicted it's totally going to hurt Trump and help Biden and it'd be insane to think otherwise. everybody keeps focusing on two groups - his 'base' (a word I'm thoroughly sick of now), or low-info voters who might be easily duped by the narrative that this is a political witchhunt. yeah ok, those folks are going to dig in w/ Trump, but they aren't enough to win by themselves.

Independents, who largely broke for Biden in 2020, have been breaking back towards Trump so far in the polls. hard for me to believe a few percent of them don't either decide not to vote at all, or switch their vote to Biden. and right now a small bump changes everything for either side.

it's not going to be the cataclysmic shift it should be because of polarized America, so the question should really be...how much will it affect it, and will it last? the 'grab em by the pussy' scandal didn't have the lasting damage the Clinton campaign expected (if they'd just timed it a little later though it'd have killed his campaign).

personally, i'm doubting it causes anything like even a 6 point swing, but 3-4 in realm of possibility.

ultimately though I don't think Biden supporters should have any confidence right now, and the whole 'well the polls are wrong' vibes are cringe. the polls aren't wrong, however they're a snapshot of now, not a predictor of later. it's not a matter of movement, it's in what direction do things move.

It often feels like Trump's support is a fixed quantity and won't budge much in terms of size, but it's hard to gauge where the enthusiasm for him fades off from "he's our gift from god" into "I hate all politicians, but that crazy fucker doesn't act like them so voting for him feels like kicking the politicians in the nuts." Trump fatigue may keep that second group from showing up in full strength.

otoh, it feels more like Biden's support is weaker but has lots of elasticity and room to improve. Mainly he should be fighting to strengthen his image, directing as much attention as he can to the good parts of his record. Reminding people how bad and dangerous Trump is good, but should be a minor point of emphasis. Most people know that without being told. It's just that they don't want to think about Trump any more than absolutely necessary and have been trying to forget about him as much as they can.

maybe a sign that the American empire is in free fall

God willing

"I hate all politicians, but that crazy fucker doesn't act like them so voting for him feels like kicking the politicians in the nuts."

trouble is this group really seems to not like the dictator shit which Trump is leaning pretty hard into

yeah, seems like his weakest area of support. the more often he runs, the more he looks like 'another politician'.

Is 2coops like "two scoops" but ... coups?

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all. I mean, for God's sake a jury found that he sexually assaulted someone and that had no impact...

America is absolutely circling the drain like the Soviet Union was, as its obsession with militarism and octogenarian leadership are exactly the same

Not to mention an absolutely benighted hinterland of bigotry, substance abuse, worship of violence, and rampant superstition

Oh, the toxic masculinity absolutely mirrors what you see in Russia and failed Soviet satellite states like Armenia

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all.

"No impact at all" is a stretch. "Some impact" on some voters, sure. Not enough to make him lose in November, I don't think.

I don't think it'll move the dial in any significant way. He's already had two judgements against him, admittedly civil, but one involving sexual assault. And nothing happened. On the other hand, if there's a hung jury and it's a mistrial, that will be huge. That will have an impact.

So you're saying "Heads, GOP wins, tails Dems lose."

I mean, I haven't been following the trial, as you can see from the paucity of Soto posts on the Trump thread -- I'm sick of the coverage even though of course it's significant -- but if a conviction moves enough people in Scranton and Kenosha that's a good thing.

Also: should the United States have a future, the conviction of a former president matters for precedent. Fucking Nixon wasn't even brought to court.

Very much hoping things will turn around, but if they do, I don't think Trump's legal shenanigans will play much of a role...

it would help if there were a simple answer to the question "what federal crime has trump been accused of?" apparently there are three of them, and jurors can pick and choose cafeteria style, and they don't have to all pick the same one.

I don't think it'll move the dial in any significant way. He's already had two judgements against him, admittedly civil, but one involving sexual assault. And nothing happened. On the other hand, if there's a hung jury and it's a mistrial, that will be huge. That will have an impact.

― Zelda Zonk, Thursday, May 30, 2024 7:04 AM (thirty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Maybe not significant, but let's hope a conviction will move the dial in a material way.

if he's found not guilty that could be a boost. if it's a mistrial it probably won't affect a thing. it's not like the entire country hasn't watched him escape accountability time and time again for the last decade. but unless things have fundamentally shifted in this country since 2020 in a way that hasn't manifested itself at all when actual elections are held it's hard to see how Trump's numbers could get any higher than they are now

it would help if there were a simple answer to the question "what federal crime has trump been accused of?" apparently there are three of them, and jurors can pick and choose cafeteria style, and they don't have to all pick the same one.

This is incorrect in multiple ways. He's accused of felony falsification of business records under New York state law. The idea that the jury does not have to be unanimous on this is a lie spread by Trump himself.

so the idea is there are 3 separate crimes here which should be misdemeanors, but when they're committed for the purpose of manipulating an election, then they're felonies. the jury has to be unanimous in that at least one crime was committed, but they don't all have to agree on which of the 3 it is (of course, the correct answer is he committed all 3)

there was a similar thing in the trial I was on, our defendant was charged with sex trafficking and we all had to agree he'd coerced the women, didn't matter if we all agreed on which method he used as long as we all thought it was at least one of them (again, it was all of them)

the point I'm surprised hasn't been raised more is exactly how this might've affected the election, back in 2016 people actually did care about the Access Hollywood tape, it gave Hillary a double-digit polling lead for a while, but of course everyone he lost drifted back to him. while Stormy Daniels doesn't describe what happened as rape she did say he's very much that guy you hear on the tape and that she was afraid of him.

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all. I mean, for God's sake a jury found that he sexually assaulted someone and that had no impact...

― Zelda Zonk, Thursday, May 30, 2024 5:05 AM bookmarkflaglink

it was a civil trial, not a criminal trial. you can't do jail time for those

oh yeah, a lot of other presidential candidates have had civil rape judgements. No big deal.

yes that's completely what i said, fuck off

would love one day on this board where we aren't all willfully misrepresenting what the other person said

lol

look there's a hundred disqualifying things about Trump right off the bat, it sucks but the people who vote for him have already swallowed so much shit that having a civil judgement passed against him is already baked in, on the other hand if there's one group of people this country really is prejudiced against (especially conservatives) it's convicted felons, obviously a lot of these people will vote for him anyway, but its definitely not good

I had a similar reaction when I first read ZZ's post, but going back I realized "no impact" was meant in terms of public perception not jail time.

Feel like the biggest impact will be how hidebound journalists will deal with him being a convicted felon, they sort of have to mention that even by their own dumbass standards of objectivity, no?

well that's the thing if Trump has proven anything it's that labels really do matter a lot in politics and "34-time convicted felon Donald Trump" is not a good one to have, you know the Dems will pounce on it and make this a huge focus of their race which will force Trump to lean even harder into "everything is rigged but I will have my revenge" mode which is exactly what turns off the swing voters

i don't really care to have debates about what the 'impact' will be in terms of the election because in my eyes, him being found guilty of rape, even if it was 'a civil trial', was the right thing to do ethically speaking. his accuser was extremely brave and put herself in harm's way more than once and could have bailed at any point and nobody would have blamed her but she didn't.

as far as why it didn't move the needle in....idk, polls, perception, speaks more to how society views rape. even if you get a rape conviction in a criminal trial, a sizable amount of people STILL believe the victim was lying. if there's video/audio of the incident, people claim it's faked (i.e. Mason Greenwood of Manchester United, where there IS actually multiple smoking guns, only for his fans to continue to say it's fake evidence). so if a sizable chunk of the population doesn't believe the average victim when the guilty party is just a random person, they sure as fuck won't believe it when it's Trump.

I'm not sad about that because it didn't hurt his electability, I'm sad about that because rape victims go through the most ridiculous stigma of anybody in this and other countries and this simply plays into that more.

a criminal conviction in this trial will probably affect the election more, because a) people seem to trivialize civil trials as if they don't mean anything, and b) it's not rape, which is trivialized in this country to where the accusers are always presumed to be liars. that in itself is fucked up.

This is incorrect in multiple ways. He's accused of felony falsification of business records under New York state law. The idea that the jury does not have to be unanimous on this is a lie spread by Trump himself.

he's accused of *misdemeanor* falsification of business records. what makes it a federal crime is the rest of this stuff, via CNN:

Merchan told the jury in his instructions on Wednesday that their verdict “must be unanimous” on each of the 34 counts that Trump faces and that, to convict Trump of felony falsification of business records, they would have to unanimously agree that he falsified business records with the intent to commit, aid or conceal another crime — that other crime being a violation of a New York election law. But Merchan explained that while this New York election law prohibits people from conspiring to use “unlawful means” to promote a candidate’s election, jurors don’t have to unanimously agree on which particular “unlawful means” Trump may have used; they can find him guilty as long as they unanimously agree that Trump used some unlawful means.

Prosecutors provided three theories of what unlawful means Trump used. Merchan told the jury: “Although you must conclude unanimously that the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you need not be unanimous as to what those unlawful means were. In determining whether the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you may consider the following: (1) violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act otherwise known as FECA; (2) the falsification of other business records; or (3) violation of tax laws.”

no, he's accused of felony falsification of business records, it is a felony because it is in furtherance of election interference, and none of that makes it a federal crime

the falsification of business records, by themselves, are misdemeanors. the smorgasbord of "unlawful means" which enable the NY election law to be applied makes it a felony. trump is semi sort of half right here.

the shocking chickening out of abject (russian) debtor / pathological liar donald 2coups silverspoons from clearing the family name by testifying in his first (?) criminal trial (hey libs don't dignify the witch hunt with compliance!) and pinch hitting disgraced former mayor of NYC rudy '9/11 was an inside job' giuliani's manic stooge robert costello (because trump org chief accountant allen weisselberg is already in jail for (multiple counts of) perjury) (and rudy is holy shit what a fall from grace)) is another sign MAGA nation is in ascendance

makes sense!

The unbearable heaviness of thinking everything is good for Trump

gift link

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/biden-campaign-2024-election-senate/678691/

^ too optimistic for this thread

https://www.rawstory.com/roger-stone-2668542134/

Trump has judges to claim the win in 2024, boasts Roger Stone

Ok Rog, keep getting reamed at one of your pos parties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/20/trump-conviction-fundraising-campaign-donations/

Donors channeled tens of millions of dollars to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and the Republican National Committee immediately following his May 30 conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, all but erasing the massive fundraising advantage that President Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee once held.

Biden and his allied groups have raised more money than Trump and his allies have over the course of the general-election contest. But the surge in post-conviction donations to Trump’s effort — captured in part in May reports filed to the Federal Election Commission on Thursday — has the potential to dramatically reshape the presidential race.

The Biden campaign’s long-standing fundraising lead allowed his campaign to build a much larger footprint than Trump’s and to significantly outspend Trump’s effort on the airwaves. The latest fundraising results put Trump in a position to build a bigger operation and air more television ads.

The full picture of the financial strength of each campaign’s effort will not be clear until later this summer, when their allied committees are required to file reports. But at the end of May, the Trump campaign and the RNC had a combined $171 million in cash on hand, surpassing the Biden campaign and the DNC’s combined total of $157 million, according to reports filed late Thursday.

...The Trump-allied super PAC MAGA Inc. — which has been the main vehicle for pro-Trump advertising on the airwaves — took in an eye-popping $50 million donation from transportation executive Timothy Mellon a day after Trump’s conviction, giving the former president’s allies ample resources to drive his message at a moment when he is leading Biden in many battleground state polls.

thank you Mellons!!!

Mellon also the largest donor to RFK Jr.

One could be forgiven for harboring a wish to kick him in his Mellon balls