rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all.

"No impact at all" is a stretch. "Some impact" on some voters, sure. Not enough to make him lose in November, I don't think.

I don't think it'll move the dial in any significant way. He's already had two judgements against him, admittedly civil, but one involving sexual assault. And nothing happened. On the other hand, if there's a hung jury and it's a mistrial, that will be huge. That will have an impact.

So you're saying "Heads, GOP wins, tails Dems lose."

I mean, I haven't been following the trial, as you can see from the paucity of Soto posts on the Trump thread -- I'm sick of the coverage even though of course it's significant -- but if a conviction moves enough people in Scranton and Kenosha that's a good thing.

Also: should the United States have a future, the conviction of a former president matters for precedent. Fucking Nixon wasn't even brought to court.

Very much hoping things will turn around, but if they do, I don't think Trump's legal shenanigans will play much of a role...

it would help if there were a simple answer to the question "what federal crime has trump been accused of?" apparently there are three of them, and jurors can pick and choose cafeteria style, and they don't have to all pick the same one.

I don't think it'll move the dial in any significant way. He's already had two judgements against him, admittedly civil, but one involving sexual assault. And nothing happened. On the other hand, if there's a hung jury and it's a mistrial, that will be huge. That will have an impact.

― Zelda Zonk, Thursday, May 30, 2024 7:04 AM (thirty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Maybe not significant, but let's hope a conviction will move the dial in a material way.

if he's found not guilty that could be a boost. if it's a mistrial it probably won't affect a thing. it's not like the entire country hasn't watched him escape accountability time and time again for the last decade. but unless things have fundamentally shifted in this country since 2020 in a way that hasn't manifested itself at all when actual elections are held it's hard to see how Trump's numbers could get any higher than they are now

it would help if there were a simple answer to the question "what federal crime has trump been accused of?" apparently there are three of them, and jurors can pick and choose cafeteria style, and they don't have to all pick the same one.

This is incorrect in multiple ways. He's accused of felony falsification of business records under New York state law. The idea that the jury does not have to be unanimous on this is a lie spread by Trump himself.

so the idea is there are 3 separate crimes here which should be misdemeanors, but when they're committed for the purpose of manipulating an election, then they're felonies. the jury has to be unanimous in that at least one crime was committed, but they don't all have to agree on which of the 3 it is (of course, the correct answer is he committed all 3)

there was a similar thing in the trial I was on, our defendant was charged with sex trafficking and we all had to agree he'd coerced the women, didn't matter if we all agreed on which method he used as long as we all thought it was at least one of them (again, it was all of them)

the point I'm surprised hasn't been raised more is exactly how this might've affected the election, back in 2016 people actually did care about the Access Hollywood tape, it gave Hillary a double-digit polling lead for a while, but of course everyone he lost drifted back to him. while Stormy Daniels doesn't describe what happened as rape she did say he's very much that guy you hear on the tape and that she was afraid of him.

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all. I mean, for God's sake a jury found that he sexually assaulted someone and that had no impact...

― Zelda Zonk, Thursday, May 30, 2024 5:05 AM bookmarkflaglink

it was a civil trial, not a criminal trial. you can't do jail time for those

oh yeah, a lot of other presidential candidates have had civil rape judgements. No big deal.

yes that's completely what i said, fuck off

would love one day on this board where we aren't all willfully misrepresenting what the other person said

lol

look there's a hundred disqualifying things about Trump right off the bat, it sucks but the people who vote for him have already swallowed so much shit that having a civil judgement passed against him is already baked in, on the other hand if there's one group of people this country really is prejudiced against (especially conservatives) it's convicted felons, obviously a lot of these people will vote for him anyway, but its definitely not good

I had a similar reaction when I first read ZZ's post, but going back I realized "no impact" was meant in terms of public perception not jail time.

Feel like the biggest impact will be how hidebound journalists will deal with him being a convicted felon, they sort of have to mention that even by their own dumbass standards of objectivity, no?

well that's the thing if Trump has proven anything it's that labels really do matter a lot in politics and "34-time convicted felon Donald Trump" is not a good one to have, you know the Dems will pounce on it and make this a huge focus of their race which will force Trump to lean even harder into "everything is rigged but I will have my revenge" mode which is exactly what turns off the swing voters

i don't really care to have debates about what the 'impact' will be in terms of the election because in my eyes, him being found guilty of rape, even if it was 'a civil trial', was the right thing to do ethically speaking. his accuser was extremely brave and put herself in harm's way more than once and could have bailed at any point and nobody would have blamed her but she didn't.

as far as why it didn't move the needle in....idk, polls, perception, speaks more to how society views rape. even if you get a rape conviction in a criminal trial, a sizable amount of people STILL believe the victim was lying. if there's video/audio of the incident, people claim it's faked (i.e. Mason Greenwood of Manchester United, where there IS actually multiple smoking guns, only for his fans to continue to say it's fake evidence). so if a sizable chunk of the population doesn't believe the average victim when the guilty party is just a random person, they sure as fuck won't believe it when it's Trump.

I'm not sad about that because it didn't hurt his electability, I'm sad about that because rape victims go through the most ridiculous stigma of anybody in this and other countries and this simply plays into that more.

a criminal conviction in this trial will probably affect the election more, because a) people seem to trivialize civil trials as if they don't mean anything, and b) it's not rape, which is trivialized in this country to where the accusers are always presumed to be liars. that in itself is fucked up.

This is incorrect in multiple ways. He's accused of felony falsification of business records under New York state law. The idea that the jury does not have to be unanimous on this is a lie spread by Trump himself.

he's accused of *misdemeanor* falsification of business records. what makes it a federal crime is the rest of this stuff, via CNN:

Merchan told the jury in his instructions on Wednesday that their verdict “must be unanimous” on each of the 34 counts that Trump faces and that, to convict Trump of felony falsification of business records, they would have to unanimously agree that he falsified business records with the intent to commit, aid or conceal another crime — that other crime being a violation of a New York election law. But Merchan explained that while this New York election law prohibits people from conspiring to use “unlawful means” to promote a candidate’s election, jurors don’t have to unanimously agree on which particular “unlawful means” Trump may have used; they can find him guilty as long as they unanimously agree that Trump used some unlawful means.

Prosecutors provided three theories of what unlawful means Trump used. Merchan told the jury: “Although you must conclude unanimously that the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you need not be unanimous as to what those unlawful means were. In determining whether the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you may consider the following: (1) violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act otherwise known as FECA; (2) the falsification of other business records; or (3) violation of tax laws.”

no, he's accused of felony falsification of business records, it is a felony because it is in furtherance of election interference, and none of that makes it a federal crime

the falsification of business records, by themselves, are misdemeanors. the smorgasbord of "unlawful means" which enable the NY election law to be applied makes it a felony. trump is semi sort of half right here.

the shocking chickening out of abject (russian) debtor / pathological liar donald 2coups silverspoons from clearing the family name by testifying in his first (?) criminal trial (hey libs don't dignify the witch hunt with compliance!) and pinch hitting disgraced former mayor of NYC rudy '9/11 was an inside job' giuliani's manic stooge robert costello (because trump org chief accountant allen weisselberg is already in jail for (multiple counts of) perjury) (and rudy is holy shit what a fall from grace)) is another sign MAGA nation is in ascendance

makes sense!

The unbearable heaviness of thinking everything is good for Trump

gift link

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/biden-campaign-2024-election-senate/678691/

^ too optimistic for this thread

https://www.rawstory.com/roger-stone-2668542134/

Trump has judges to claim the win in 2024, boasts Roger Stone

Ok Rog, keep getting reamed at one of your pos parties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/20/trump-conviction-fundraising-campaign-donations/

Donors channeled tens of millions of dollars to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and the Republican National Committee immediately following his May 30 conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, all but erasing the massive fundraising advantage that President Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee once held.

Biden and his allied groups have raised more money than Trump and his allies have over the course of the general-election contest. But the surge in post-conviction donations to Trump’s effort — captured in part in May reports filed to the Federal Election Commission on Thursday — has the potential to dramatically reshape the presidential race.

The Biden campaign’s long-standing fundraising lead allowed his campaign to build a much larger footprint than Trump’s and to significantly outspend Trump’s effort on the airwaves. The latest fundraising results put Trump in a position to build a bigger operation and air more television ads.

The full picture of the financial strength of each campaign’s effort will not be clear until later this summer, when their allied committees are required to file reports. But at the end of May, the Trump campaign and the RNC had a combined $171 million in cash on hand, surpassing the Biden campaign and the DNC’s combined total of $157 million, according to reports filed late Thursday.

...The Trump-allied super PAC MAGA Inc. — which has been the main vehicle for pro-Trump advertising on the airwaves — took in an eye-popping $50 million donation from transportation executive Timothy Mellon a day after Trump’s conviction, giving the former president’s allies ample resources to drive his message at a moment when he is leading Biden in many battleground state polls.

thank you Mellons!!!

Mellon also the largest donor to RFK Jr.

One could be forgiven for harboring a wish to kick him in his Mellon balls

hey guys

hi

so bad...

welcome to the resistance

Hi

ugh

cain't watch won't watch

Might as well just let Trump start moving his stuff back into the White House

staring out the window at the San Gabriels. Thinking about that chapter in the McPhee book and contemplating time.

I don't know if you can blame CNN for the format--I think Biden got the no-audience, mic-turned-off concessions.

there's still plenty of time for him to die

That golfing detour was bizarre. Trump's cheating on the golf course is infamous; and hate to say it, but Biden's a six-handicap like I'm Mookie Betts on the baseball field.

Wrong thread there for those last two posts.

But what of the "no fact check" clause? I didn't realize that that extended to their questions being ignored and then not being able to do anything about it.

Not sure about that. I remember there was one debate, not sure which one, where the moderators got a lot of grief for fact-checking answers...Obama/Romney, maybe?

folks watching presidential debates is not a good or cool or worthwhile thing to do

I was in a hipster coffee shop and everyone was watching the debate on their phones