VEEP 2004

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So I'm just going to assume that Dean gets the nomination and start the fun of picking the VP candidate. I already started posting about that on this thread. Here's a restatement and some more ideas...

The ideal candidate will balance the ticket in geography, personality, ideology, knowledge of or experience with particular issues or in particular arenas, and perhaps gender/race/ethnicity or interest group. They will also be someone who would be a credible President and Commander-in-Chief, who would get along with the nominee, and who would serve a useful purpose in the office. On the trail, they would be someone who would look good on a stump/stage with the nominee, and who would preferably help draw attention/excitement to the campaign. In general, there should be some caution about overcompensating, i.e. picking someone who calls attention to the weaknesses of the nominee. Finally, perhaps obviously, the candidate shouldn't have major weaknesses that threaten to outweigh their benefits (a nonentity may be better than a potential liability), and shouldn't significantly hurt the party through the opportunity cost of giving up their day job (i.e. giving up a Senate seat that they would otherwise keep or run for).

For Dean, the geographical balance favors someone from outside the Northeast (and not from an upscale urban precinct in another part of the country). The experience balance favors someone who has national security and foreign policy experience, and someone who has Federal experience, who knows Washington, Congress in particular. The ideology balance favors someone who is or appears more of a centrist, but they need not be in the further right wing of the party because Dean isn't in the further left wing. The personality balance favors someone who is more Middle American in temperament, more sociable, more religious or expressive of religiosity, and either less abrasive or more confident in their aggressiveness. The need to look good next to the candidate may mean that you need someone somewhat short (Dean is 5'9, I think).

I'll go through my proposed candidates, in order of preference.

Top Tier:

1) Bill Richardson

The positives are just so long. His political resume is almost as broad as Bush 41's was. He was a longtime member of the House from New Mexico, became Ambassador to the UN, then a Cabinet Secretary (Energy), and is now Governor of New Mexico. He has both foreign policy and national security experience, serving on the House Intelligence committee, and being called upon to negotiate with Iraq, Afghanistan and North Korea, among other places. And he knows energy, an increasingly important issue. He's energetic and knows everyone in Washington and is well-liked. He's a guy's guy type, not a metrosexual, and a moderate hawk, which would compare nicely with Cheney. He's a West/Southwesterner (born in CA). And he's hispanic, raised in Mexico, and fluent in Spanish. He'd go a long way to helping Dems win NM, AZ, NV, FL and maybe even CO.

The negatives. Some people just aren't going to vote for him because he's Hispanic. I have an older family member, a lifelong Democrat, who might be among them. How many people, I don't know. Also, some have suggested that blacks will be angry that a latino candidate is on a ticket before a black one is. There are some Clinton-era Energy Dept scandals, which I don't know a lot about, though they don't seem major. He's 6 inches taller than Dean, and a big guy, which might look funny. The big thing is he may not do it. He has said he isn't in the running, but I don't put too much stock in that. But maybe he thinks Dean will lose and he wants to wait four years, when his term expires in 2007.

2) Bob Graham

The positives. He's an obvious choice, having been considered by every Dem nominee since Dukakis. A longtime Senator, he's well-respected and well-liked on both sides of the aisle for his moderate temperament, collegiality, niceness and intelligence, if undistinguished in his legislative record. He was Chairman of the Intelligence committee and harshly criticizes the administration on its non-response to the terrorism issue. He's a moderate hawk (perhaps more hawkish than the Bush admin) who nevertheless opposed the war. He's the most popular politician in Florida, arguably the most important state (though I think it's trending Republican and while we should fight for it we should focus more on the Southwest and the Mississippi River states), who has potential appeal throughout Appalachia and the South and in the Sun belt. He's a bubba of sorts, who will appeal to cultural conservatives, and a "regular guy" who's made a practice throughout his career of going on "work days" in different jobs to learn about what people do. He's in his mid-to-late 60s, and could appeal to older voters. He appears to get along with Dean (and appears to be actively running for his veep spot). And he's friends with Jimmy Buffett, so maybe we'd get the parrothead vote.

Negatives. He isn't that old, but he seems it. There's nothing scintillating about him in the slightest, and in the debates/talk-shows he sometimes looked out of it. His terrorism-alarmism cuts both ways. And he has a habit of obsessively recording minutiae of his daily activity (e.g., 8:17 AM, what kind of cereal he's eating for breakfast), which was considered weird enough for him to lose his status as frontrunner to be Gore's veep. Together, these things make him look a little weird/nuts/early-Alzheimers. And he's had heart problems in the past (though clearly that's not prohibitive in nominees today). Those don't seem like that much, so perhaps he's the safest net-positive/negative choice. However, while his niceness/mildness pairs well with Dean, it may not create much excitement compared to the Lieberman announcement or on the trail. Then again, perhaps the genius Dean campaign will find a way to make him exciting. Maybe he and Dean can get a lot of attention by going on "work days" together.

3) Wes Clark

Positives. Well, duh, the resume. Successful General who's also experienced in foreign policy and reasonably well-versed in domestic political issues, not to mention a brilliant Rhodes scholar. Beyond that he's temperamentally at least compatible with the Democratic mainstream and with an empathetic capacity (or at least the appearance of same). Good tv skills. Aggressive, but non-descriptly middle-American with the potential to help pick up Arkansas (maybe), and perhaps other parts of the South or the Midwest.

Negatives. More than a few. He's never been in government before, or elected to anything. Moreover, you can be the smartest guy in the world and still not be a good politician. He certainly isn't a bad one, but he has a long way to go. Put him on the spot when he's unprepared and it has the potential to be a disaster. Get him away from his advisors and you realize how much he relies upon and is molded by them. And there's such a thing as too smart with some people. He, like Clinton, will be easily painted as slick, a flip-flopper, untrustworthy. I'm not sure I don't feel that way about him. Clinton won twice of course, but he was helped twice by Perot and had an appeal to core Democrats that Clark does not. And there are lots of people in the military who will speak out against him and suggest that he almost started World War III in Kosovo. I think that he's been very successful in the military but in certain fundamental ways is not of its culture. Finally, he's run against Dean and there may be enough moments from the primary campaign that can be used by the other side in the general. His strengths are significant, but he's missing a key one, and I'm not sure I'm willing to take the risks.

My alternative choice would be Gen. Anthony C. Zinni, CentCom prior to Tommy Franks, who has become a harsh critic of the Administration and who, like Clark, has significant foreign policy negotiation experience, especially in the Mideast. The problem is that he said today in the Washington Post that he's sworn off politics. Not to mention the fact that he's a Republican. He endorsed Bush in 2000 (though this is what led to his current distrust of any candidate), and considers himself best aligned with moderate GOP hawks like Powell, Lugar and Hagel. But maybe it's time for the Democrats to be open to such moderate foreign policy Republicans. The larger issue though is I have no idea where he stands on or what he knows about anything domestic. So it's a nice idea, but probably not.

Second Tier

4) Dick Gephardt/John Dingell

Relatively unexciting, but not necessarily disastrous, choices whose advantages are that they're experienced Members of Congress (Gep as Majority leader, Dingell as the longest-serving member of the House) from the Big River midwest region, which Democrats won last time and are most in danger of losing in 2004, for demographic/trend reasons and because Dean is going to have a tougher time with the culture of this region than elsewhere. More importantly, perhaps, they have very strong union support, and we want the old-like manufacturing unions heavily involved in this election and in this region. Many think that these unions' strong turnout efforts in 2000 are the reason Gore almost won, and some think that they will be dispirited if/when their man Dick loses the nomination, and will have little incentive to work for Dean because they won't get the credit due to his campaign skills, internet operation and media presence. Giving them more of a stake in the campaign could be a good idea. Both have moderate tendencies, Gephardt as a hawk, and Dingell as strongly pro-gun, but are otherwise mainstream to liberal Democrats. But neither have serious foreign policy experience.

Gep has lots of negatives of course, as a wimpy, boring Washington politician with no eyebrows. And again, he's a primary opponent who attacked Dean harshly (for Gephardt). But back in 1988, Dean supported Gep's Presidential campaign, which was run by Dean's current campaign manager. Maybe they can heal their wounds. And maybe boring is irrelevant if the unions' get out the vote effort gets the job done.

Dingell may be problematic with women and the gun control lobby, people Dean may need help appealing to, and is not a moderate on economic issues. And I'm not sure he wants to go anywhere from his House seat or if he has any interest in Dean.

Alternate Big Riverians include Sen. Tom Harkin and Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa, but I'm not sure Iowa will be a problem in 2004. While Harkin can be tough, he's not tough enough and may be too liberal and boring. While Vilsack gets decent "regular guy" marks and can be energetic, he's probably too inexperienced. I'm not sure we want to give up either of them.

5) Bill Nelson/Mark Warner/John Edwards/Mary Landrieu

These guys are all less experienced rising stars in the party whose value as a nominee would be in their Southernness and moderation and in their broad cultural appeal. It would be a risk to take them because they leave big holes in the ticket, so they're probably not great choices, but it's possible they could refresh the ticket the way the Lieberman choice did.

Landrieu and Edwards both have real Southern appeal and are attractive. And Edwards is very smart and has a creative policy program.

My exciting guy here is Bill Nelson. He's a first-term Florida Senator, on the Armed Services committee, who was previously a Congressman and Florida Treasurer and Insurance Commissioner. He looks like an authentic, but not flashy Southern guy, Trent Lott without the helmet-hair. The kicker is he was an astronaut. But it would be a real insult to Bob Graham to take the other guy from Florida, and we probably don't want to give up his seat.

Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia wouldn't be a bad choice either. He won in a State that Dems conceivably could pick up, in part by appealing to the new tech corridor in Northern VA's Fairfax county. He could help with the moderate, male, economy-focused "investor class." But in his first term at the State level, he's probably a little green.

g@bbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 24 December 2003 05:57 (twenty-one years ago)

If you're looking for some Prez/Veep humor, this is the site for you (once you get past the dumb/boring Edwards paragraph, which contains a really tasteless passage if in fact the author is aware that Edwards' son died in a car accident).

gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 24 December 2003 05:59 (twenty-one years ago)

People Who Are Being Discussed Who I Lean Against:

Jay Rockefeller - talked up because he's very popular in West Virginia, and perhaps in surrounding states like PA and OH, and is an experienced, moderate Senator on the Intelligence Committee. I say no because he's dorky-looking and "Rockefeller" will not play well anywhere he doesn't come from (but what of the Roc-a-Fella vote?).

John Breaux - well, he wouldn't do it, I wouldn't think. Might get some broad appeal and surprise out of it, but would be outweighed by dismay from supporters. While a real Democrat, a bit too far to the right.

Sam Nunn - again, I don't think he'd go there. Perhaps less of a Democrat than Wes Clark? Not exactly gay-friendly, and we won't win GA no matter what. Then again, if he's a Republican, he's the acceptable kind on foreign policy and is well-respected and smart. But, don't think it would work.

Bob Kerrey - he fits the Washington and foreign policy/national security bills and has war experience, but the Vietnam questions would be too distracting at worst, and he left politics for NYC and he wouldn't bring any excitement or constituency

Ann Richards - would appeal to the elderly and perhaps the culturally conservative and women but not even all that popular in Texas anymore and no foreign policy or Congressional experience (though DC connections).

gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 24 December 2003 06:27 (twenty-one years ago)

Gore picked Lieberman to help him win Florida and look at all the good it did him.

I don't know Dean's strength in California, but if he can't win it on his own merits he can't win the presidency. Picking someone like Barabara Boxer might be tempting, but it would leave him much too vulnerable in the border South, because he'd look too 'liberal'.

Ideally, Wes Clark will figure out that he can't win it all and will begin to tailor his campaign for a veep bid, by making himself as the ultimate "security without stupidity" candidate. Clark also needs to show well in the border South primaries. Just being from Arkansas won't be enough. He needs to embrace his southerness and his military credentials as his main appeal. That would make Clark the ideal veep for Dean, by protecting his flank.

Once he's on the ticket, Clark would need to rip into Bush and Cheney's military policies from a military POV. The USA is throwing a vast amount of blood and treasure into Iraq, with no publically articulated policy of what constitutes victory or how we get there from here.

No other veep could do this vital job as well as Clark could. It would free up Dean to talk about Bush's corrupt domestic policies, which is where his best credibility lies. Domestically, Bush has done nothing but crap on the poor and middle class.

Aimless, Wednesday, 24 December 2003 20:58 (twenty-one years ago)

clark has opened his mouth too much about this in the past few days, I don't think he'd be offered at this point.

anthony kyle monday (akmonday), Wednesday, 24 December 2003 21:20 (twenty-one years ago)

No! No! To play the game correctly, Clark has to conduct himself strictly as a presidential candidate until at least Super Tuesday. At least in public, he must.

Aimless, Wednesday, 24 December 2003 22:57 (twenty-one years ago)

there are only three southern states in play for the democrats: arkansas, west virginia, and florida

clark's military background will help in west va, and he's from ak

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Thursday, 25 December 2003 19:24 (twenty-one years ago)

but i agree that he's been whining too much about "the dangle" and aimless has a point that he at least needs to behave like a presidential candidate until super tuesday, not like a big baby

not sure i feel comfortable with him as VP anyway; the guy voted for reagan and both bushes

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Thursday, 25 December 2003 19:32 (twenty-one years ago)

I don't think Clark is a possibility though it's clear lots of supporters in both camps would love a Dean/Clark ticket.. As friends who work for the military have explained to me many times, one doesn't reach the rank Clark has without a number of skeletons in the closet, and they'd all be dragged out. I have heard some stories already. Plus I don't find him all that appealing as a candidate, what is weird about his alleged appeal to Southern voters is that I only hear this theory from liberal urbanites who basically seem to assume the majority of voters are hopelessly shallow. I am in favor of the Dems dispatching Clark to attack Bush/Cheney on defense issues, but don't quite trust that he'll try to be a good party man once he realizes he can't have the #1 or #2 spot in the party.

I heard Richardson will prob not be in the running as he lobbied too hard for this post in 2000 and annoyed some folks in the party establishment.

Graham is possible. Dean's been saying he needs someone to fill the foreign-policy experience spot on the resume. Who else would be suited to that?

daria g (daria g), Friday, 26 December 2003 08:00 (twenty-one years ago)

don't all politicians have skeletons in the closet to some extent? I mean, why would an average military person automatically have a more damaging past than an average politician?

teeny (teeny), Friday, 26 December 2003 13:17 (twenty-one years ago)

not sure i feel comfortable with him as VP anyway; the guy voted for reagan and both bushes

Ah! There is the beauty of the vice-presidency. Once elected, the president can utterly ignore the veep, should it please His Majesty to do so. A veep is a shade less powerful than the man who powdered the king's wig.

Aimless, Friday, 26 December 2003 19:54 (twenty-one years ago)

graham is possible

am I the only person that think graham comes across as kind of, uh, buddy hackettesque? And not foul-mouthed Las Vegas buddy hackett, but "Love Bug" Buddy Hackett. He seems too lumpy and cuddly to be on the ticket. This is really shallow, I know. Also, I don't really know jack about him.

anthony kyle monday (akmonday), Friday, 26 December 2003 21:04 (twenty-one years ago)

Graham is possible because candidates pick VPs to be seen and not heard. they dont want anyone to overshadow them. for example: quayle, lieberman. i also think this is why we wont be seeing a dean/clark ticket. dean/richardson would be good tho..

i really dont think vp's mean squat in the general election. it depends on circumstances i suppose. someone mentioned liberman being gore's hope to win florida, and look how that went. i think cheney might have leant some credibility to bush but only in some circles. i mean look at how many vp's get smoked when they try and run for president when their boy is done with their term.

bill stevens (bscrubbins), Friday, 26 December 2003 21:11 (twenty-one years ago)

there's one down.

g--ff (gcannon), Monday, 5 January 2004 06:27 (twenty-one years ago)

a bigger denial than before, but he can change his mind at any time. may be just a reflection of the realization that he probably won't get it.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 5 January 2004 13:14 (twenty-one years ago)

two months pass...
Three months to Veep! Three months to Veep!

Note the short-list shockers:
- the presence of Kerrey
- the absence of Richardson

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 16:55 (twenty-one years ago)

two months, rather, right?

I really want Richardson to be a possiblity, boo.

I worry about the Kerry/Kerrey possibility, it's just going to take up valuable media time with explanations about which one we're talking about.

NOBODY LIKES DICK GEPHARDT, EVEN IN MISSOURI.

teeny (teeny), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:02 (twenty-one years ago)

two months, rather, right?

right.

I really want Richardson to be a possiblity, boo.

so do I. there's no good reason to think he's not.

I worry about the Kerry/Kerrey possibility, it's just going to take up valuable media time with explanations about which one we're talking about.

hey, it gets free media coverage.

NOBODY LIKES DICK GEPHARDT, EVEN IN MISSOURI.

well, what about Ohio? Michigan? Minnesota?

one of Gep's advantages is that he can be an attack dog without ever coming close to looking mean. whether he's effective is another question. I don't think it's going to be him, though I do think he will be in the Kerry administration.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:07 (twenty-one years ago)

McCain! I would campaign for that ticket.

bnw (bnw), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:12 (twenty-one years ago)

Graham, maybe? That's where my money is.

Girolamo Savonarola, Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:12 (twenty-one years ago)

if McCain would do it, Kerry would take him immediately, and the election would be over (though maybe I really overestimate the country). but it's pretty unlikely. while he loathes Bush, I don't think he wants to be VP, especially in a Dem administration. he'll campaign in other ways.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:15 (twenty-one years ago)

graham looks like buddy hackett. there's no way.

anthony kyle monday (akmonday), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:16 (twenty-one years ago)

And Dick Cheney looks like Mr. Burns. So what?

Girolamo Savonarola, Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:20 (twenty-one years ago)

graham looks like buddy hackett. there's no way.

Meet Southern Comfort. No way Dems win it, but someone like Graham might change the discourse there a tiny bit, with butterfly effects.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:20 (twenty-one years ago)

Mr Burns would kick Buddy Hackett's ass. Not that people pay THAT much attention to the VEEP, but Cheney is a nasty, relentless ass, and Graham doesn't have an edge (that I've seen).

anthony kyle monday (akmonday), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:22 (twenty-one years ago)

OMG Kerry/McCain would be ballot GOLD.

nickalicious (nickalicious), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:24 (twenty-one years ago)

yeah but if kerry kicked it we'd have an anti-abortion republican as president. Sorry, Mccain has some good qualities, for sure, but he has a lot of undesirable ones (to me).

anthony kyle monday (akmonday), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:26 (twenty-one years ago)

yeah but if kerry kicked it we'd have an anti-abortion republican as president

you think if Kerry "kicked it" McCain would change the policies of his administration?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:31 (twenty-one years ago)

i doubt McCain will happen... I mean, jesus, the repercussions within the Republican party alone would be unfathomable if McCain agreed to it, but I doubt he will.

donut bitch (donut), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:33 (twenty-one years ago)

Come to think of it, I think the Repubs would pretty much cut off McCain just like they did Lott and other controversial Republicans... "traitor" would be a quick resonating word within the conservatives me thinks.

Then again, I wasn't involved in politics enough to remember if Lloyd Bentsen went through the same thing when he accepted Dukakis's nod for veep.

donut bitch (donut), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:34 (twenty-one years ago)

didn't we/can't we trade zell miller for McCain?

teeny (teeny), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:35 (twenty-one years ago)

Here's a question no one has asked.

Does Bush HAVE to keep Cheney? Given Cheney's heart problems, there could be an amicable decision to drop Cheney as veep choice, and have Bush choose McCain as veep.

*shudder*

donut bitch (donut), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:39 (twenty-one years ago)

Then again, I wasn't involved in politics enough to remember if Lloyd Bentsen went through the same thing when he accepted Dukakis's nod for veep.

Lloyd Bentsen was a lifelong Democrat, no?

Given Cheney's heart problems, there could be an amicable decision to drop Cheney as veep choice, and have Bush choose McCain as veep.

McCain loathes Bush. He is friends with Kerry. Would never happen in a million years.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:45 (twenty-one years ago)

they won't dump cheney, he controls everything fropm his little bunker.

anthony kyle monday (akmonday), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 17:59 (twenty-one years ago)

I thought I remember Bentsen being a Republican at some point, but maybe this was well in his past... never mind!

donut bitch (donut), Tuesday, 30 March 2004 20:09 (twenty-one years ago)

A good NYT piece on the nature of most modern Veep choices, which usually seek to emphasize something about the top of the ticket, and don't often try to reach out to a region.

The article suggests to me that Kerry, if he follows the historical trend, will pick someone
1) with significant experience, including experience in Congress,
2) with a sense of seriousness/gravitas,
3) who preferably has served in the military (though he might be able to substitute governmental experience with military or intelligence or foreign policy issues).
4) who is regarded as a straight-shooter
5) who does not have substantial ideological differences with Kerry (but perhaps experience will override this factor).

This is the list, including marginal candidates, that I think the article dictates:
Max Cleland
Dick Gephardt
Bob Graham
Bob Kerrey
John McCain (who isn't an option)
Bill Nelson
Sam Nunn
Bill Richardson

The list dosn't include, of course, John Edwards or anyone else age 55 or younger (Bill Richardson just makes the cut), such as reported candidates IA Gov Tom Vilsack, VA Gov Mark Warner, AZ Gov Janet Napolitano and KS Gov Kathleen Sebelius. I don't think any of these people are seriously being considered. Kerry's people are probably throwing them out as thanks for support and to build up names for the future and to keep the other side off the trail. But maybe I'm looking at things the wrong way - I assume Kerry will want to emphasize his experience by adding to it, but is it possible that he wants to do so instead by contrasting it with someone younger?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 11 April 2004 15:40 (twenty-one years ago)

Don the oddsmaker says:

Max Cleland - 30 to 1 (the suicide pick...zero upside)
Dick Gephardt - 35 to 1 (zero freshness, the eternal campaigner)
Bob Graham - 10 to 1 (I just don't get the appeal of this guy)
Bob Kerrey - 5 to 1 (I think his problems in 'Nam are way overrated)
John McCain (who isn't an option) - 1 zillion to 1
Bill Nelson - 15 to 1 (what Gabbneb said re: dicking Graham is OTM)
Sam Nunn - 5 to 1 (good on paper, not a great campaigner)
Bill Richardson -5 to 1 (Is he really out of the running or what?)
Evan Bayh - 5 to 1 (my "favorite" of the bunch)

don carville weiner, Sunday, 11 April 2004 16:50 (twenty-one years ago)

Somehow I don't believe it will be anyone on that shortlist. And if you sliced a bit of Gephart off the innards would say 'loser' as with Brighton rock.

suzy (suzy), Sunday, 11 April 2004 16:58 (twenty-one years ago)

I agree that Cleland (perhaps the most marginal on the list) has no upside and that Gephardt (perhaps the least) has no freshness. But I'm not sure these things matter. The first rule is don't make a mistake. Both of these guys are above reproach (though maybe picking someone really bland is a mistake). Next, emphasize Kerry's credentials. Both these guys would do it. And we do want an eternal campaigner (Gephardt is the epitome, Cleland is far from it).

Bob Graham - I'm really not sure how strong a candidate he is. He doesn't have much appeal to anyone I know, though I think he could appeal a bit to older folks and Gulf Coasters. But he wouldn't get picked for appeal, he'd get picked for being a relatively safe choice who could do the job. His service on the Intelligence Committee and the Cong Cmte investigating 9/11, as well as his economic experience, including as Governor and a businessman, are relevant.

I think Bob Kerrey's Nam problems are overrated too.

Nunn - good point re campaigning. Dick Cheney isn't exactly Mr. Stump Speech either. Then again Kerry doesn't connect (vomit) like Bush. Maybe that really is a hole for him to fill (his people claim there are none other than regionalism but that may be disinformation), but he also doesn't want someone who upstages him.

Bill Nelson - I think he has enough experience, just not a lot or as much as others. And while he'd be a fresh (but not all that exciting or attractive) face, the fact that he isn't known wouldn't do much for gravitas. I'm not sure how relevant the Graham thing is, though. Graham is 67 years old and he knows the five-years-younger Nelson is on the list.

Richardson hasn't taken himself out of the running - you say you don't want it when you do want it. But if he's said that there are better choices, he may be honest, and I'm beginning to think that he'd be right. But he's done a lot more than those in his age cohort - even Hillary hasn't been a Congressman, Cabinet Secretary, UN Ambassador, negotiator with a nuclear state, Governor, and Nobel Peace Prize nominee. Admittedly, some of these involved short terms.

Bayh - He has been high if not on the top of my list. I did consciously leave him out of this one, though, based on the factors in this article. But maybe I shouldn't have. He's a Senator with a bit of a record and (recently?) on the Armed Services Cmte as well as a former Governor. But he's 49 years old, and while he looks older than the (actually older) Edwards, I'm not sure he gets up to the gravitas stage. And he's never been close to battle. And this article says balancing ideology isn't so important. If you want a moderate, I think Nelson might be a better pick on most of the fronts that this article says to me should be relevant.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 11 April 2004 17:22 (twenty-one years ago)

It seems to me that more than anything, you want a ticket to inspire voters to get out. The balancing of ideologies is always overrated--when you are Veep you toe the company line and it's no more complicated than that.

You do want an eternal campaigner, but you want want that is fresh. Gephart = voter confusion = ball & chain. Yes, familiarity is nice in the beginning but in the long run Gephart is Washington Establishment. And you already have that on the ticket, so that's another reason Gephart isn't the right person.

I think that jacking up the military cred is waaaaay overrated, or at least overrated in terms of being a difference. Look at what Clinton did with his military record vs. Poppy. Look at Bush 43 and Cheney. It's a non-issue. You don't need "credibility" as a military to give the country a plan on how to stabilize (er, exit?) Iraq. You just need a plan that people can reasonably buy into.

I also think gravitas is way overrated, or at least in this election. You cannot out-gravitas the President, and if you make gravitas an issue then you are wasting energy and money. Plus, Kerry's got enough of it. It would be awesome if there was a younger pitbull type that would go after Cheney and make him look like an old man, rather than see a wonk-off with a dude like Richardson in the debates.

Napolitano is okay. That gov from Kansas wouldn't be good. I'd like to see a woman on the ticket if she was a fireball. This may be sexist, but if there was a really attractive woman on the ticket, do you think it could be a difference maker? I do. Who is the hottest female pol, anyway?

Also, I like the idea of that Ford kid from Tennessee on the ticket. But he's too young, right?

don carville weiner, Sunday, 11 April 2004 18:05 (twenty-one years ago)

Where are you guys getting your VP options from?

Dan I., Monday, 12 April 2004 01:03 (twenty-one years ago)

Major media outlets, to begin with. Google is your friend. These aren't necessarily the people the campaign is considering, but enough people talk about this that the pick is highly unlikely to be someone who hasn't been discussed by lots of people.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 12 April 2004 01:06 (twenty-one years ago)

Who is the hottest female pol, anyway?

http://estelle.jppss.k12.la.us/Landrieu_files/image002.jpg

Well, he asked!

Pleasant Plains (Pleasant Plains), Monday, 12 April 2004 01:27 (twenty-one years ago)

Mary's not hot enough to be a voting difference.

don carville weiner, Monday, 12 April 2004 10:27 (twenty-one years ago)

It would "swing my vote", ifyouknowwhatImean.

Pleasant Plains (Pleasant Plains), Monday, 12 April 2004 15:23 (twenty-one years ago)

Veep Thrills

gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 14 April 2004 02:42 (twenty-one years ago)

My Kerry-augmentation criteria spat out Hillary, Gephardt and Kerrey on top, with Biden, Graham, Nelson, Clark, Cleland and Edwards in the second tier. Not bad.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 14 April 2004 02:46 (twenty-one years ago)

i got clark, graham up top with bayh, kerrey, nelson second tier.

cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 14 April 2004 20:17 (twenty-one years ago)

did you see safire's kerry cabinet?

cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 14 April 2004 20:18 (twenty-one years ago)

Is it a good sign or bad sign that some of the things Kerry will consider are gender and race? Is that craven or sexist or racist? Is there anything wrong with placing merit on characteristics that have nothing to do with performance, skills, etc.?

don atwater weiner, Wednesday, 14 April 2004 21:10 (twenty-one years ago)

I love Gary Hart. He should pick him.

Whatever happened to Tim Wirth? He was starred as the "next Gary Hart" and kind of thought to be a future presidential contender in the late 80's (also from Colorado) but after serving in the state department under clinton, it seems he disappeared.

kyle (akmonday), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 00:38 (twenty-one years ago)

I like Bradley a lot as a Senator (not so much as an ex- one), but not as a candidate.

hstencil (hstencil), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 00:41 (twenty-one years ago)

OK, Kerry himself has picked the best Veep ever

While in Colorado, Kerry made a quick stop in Aspen for a $500,000 fund-raiser at the home of Michael Goldberg, president of Miami-based airline leasing company Aerolease International. Kerry invited Aspen resident and writer Hunter S. Thompson to ride in his motorcade and brought three copies of Thompson's book about the 1972 presidential race, "Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail" for autographs.

"Just to put your minds all at ease, I have four words for you that I know will relieve you greatly," Kerry told the fund-raiser. "How does this sound — Vice President Hunter Thompson."

Elvis Telecom (Chris Barrus), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 06:03 (twenty-one years ago)

Best idea ever!!!

Dan I. (Dan I.), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 06:12 (twenty-one years ago)

After "President Hunter Thompson", I guess.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 06:12 (twenty-one years ago)

Oliphant makes a decent case for the somewhat vague 'value-added' candidate and argues that Edwards dominates the category, though he does not discuss other candidates. Particularly noteworthy - he not only ignores the gravitas factor, arguing as I have at least as devil's advocate that 'experience' need not be substantial, he thinks Edwards' ability to connect with younger people is something Kerry needs.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 16:38 (twenty-one years ago)

Bush's big message lately is that he's the candidate of optimism. Is that:
a) in anticipation of an Edwards pick?
b) an attempt to engender an Edwards pick, because they want to run against him?
c) an attempt to prevent an Edwards pick by making us believe they want to run against him?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 16:51 (twenty-one years ago)

One downside to Edwards could be getting shown up in a debate with Cheney, as he was once or twice in the primaries. I don't know how many people actually watch VP debates, though the audience is sure to be bigger this year (and bigger if Edwards is the nominee). And they'll be replayed enough that the media-selected key moments will sink in. Of course, the risk might be worth significant rewards - the trial lawyer might get in a few points that are devastating enough to outweigh any Cheney points. And more generally, while it will be the old hand vs. the kid, it will also be the prince of darkness vs. Johnny Sunshine.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 16:55 (twenty-one years ago)

Well we all know that optimism is what creates jobs. So why not a job as vice president?

rasheed wallace (rasheed wallace), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 16:55 (twenty-one years ago)

My final short list (I think):

Winner - Nunn
Runners-Up - Breaux, Edwards, Vilsack
Wild card - Bradley

gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 27 June 2004 20:07 (twenty-one years ago)

Following yer template:

Winner: Vilsack
Runners-Up: Edwards, Nunn, Richardson
Wild Card: Bradley

Though a significant amount of this may be wishful thinking.

j e r e m y (x Jeremy), Sunday, 27 June 2004 20:16 (twenty-one years ago)

Richardson was the last person I left off mine.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 27 June 2004 20:19 (twenty-one years ago)

Funniest selection I've heard so far (via Free Republic)...

Kerry/Anonymous 2004

If we told you, we'd have to kill you.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 27 June 2004 20:27 (twenty-one years ago)

http://www.votewithavengeance.com/images/VilsackFamily.jpg

gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 27 June 2004 22:25 (twenty-one years ago)

EXACTLY.

Dan I., Sunday, 27 June 2004 22:27 (twenty-one years ago)

I was pointing out his kids, who are a little more midwestern than Chris Heinz. This is a little better...

http://www.northlibertyiowa.org/images/governor/standlobby.jpg

...but you have a point.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 27 June 2004 22:36 (twenty-one years ago)

See the thing is, no one really liked the gym teacher and his meathead sons, did they?

Dan I., Sunday, 27 June 2004 22:38 (twenty-one years ago)

What am I saying? There's always the huge swell of sympathy and school spirit when one of them dies in a drunk driving accident during Senior year.

Dan I., Sunday, 27 June 2004 22:43 (twenty-one years ago)

I'm leaning toward Vilsack, he wouldn't overshadow Kerry and I was intrigued by the portrayal he got in a New York Times profile today - not just the life story (though that's something, for sure) but the ability to connect to people in small town America and to deal with issues on that level. Perhaps that was the appeal of Edwards in a theoretical sense (son of a millworker blah blah blah) but his image is so much "I appeal to people in the South" and he hasn't got much experience.

And did Kerry really ask McCain to consider running with him?
If you take Kerry's word for it, he did an interview on Nightline a couple days ago and told Ted Koppel point blank that he hadn't asked anyone yet to be his running mate.

Winner - Vilsack
Runnersup - Edwards, Gephardt, Nunn

daria g (daria g), Monday, 28 June 2004 01:04 (twenty-one years ago)

I knew that once I finalized my list, I'd want to add to it - I'm not sure about him, but I think Mark Warner might be a risk worth taking. Also, I should note that I left off a couple of sitting Senators who would be good candidates, because none are so great so as to justify risking a seat.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 28 June 2004 19:32 (twenty-one years ago)

It will never happen.

dan carville weiner, Wednesday, 30 June 2004 20:34 (twenty-one years ago)

i nearly died laughing reading that today. rush limbaugh did a show recently about how gephardt had veep locked up becuz the 'thugs' in 'big labor' demanded it. and of course how this just goes to show JUST HOW MUCH democrats hate america.

cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 30 June 2004 20:40 (twenty-one years ago)

It won't be Gephardt either. Bet your life on it.

dan carville weiner, Wednesday, 30 June 2004 20:46 (twenty-one years ago)

I agree that there's no way it's HRC, but if that party-unspecified 'insider' knows what they're talking about in terms of theme/criteria, it sure sounds like we're getting Sebelius, whose tenure as governor has focused on fiscal responsibility, education and health care, and who was formerly KS Insurance Commissioner, on Clinton's healthcare quality commission and named one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Healthcare by a Modern Healthcare magazine.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 30 June 2004 21:04 (twenty-one years ago)

Haha thanks dondan for reminding me why I don't read the Drudge Report! It was still very funny, though.

VengaDan Perry (Dan Perry), Wednesday, 30 June 2004 21:13 (twenty-one years ago)

I don't read Drudge either. But my brother called me panting, and you know, Drudge probably gets a boner every time he gets a referring link from ILX. So there you have it.

My brother is an attorney in KC. He doesn't think much of Sebelius, but when I asked him about it last week, he was so woeful about Bush that I think she would worry him on the Kerry ticket.

dondan atwater weiner, Wednesday, 30 June 2004 21:22 (twenty-one years ago)

VICE PRESIDENTS BERT AND ERNIE?; SPECULATION INTENSIFIES IN WASHINGTON

http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/gallery/2002/12/17/Xkerry.jpg http://www.ifs.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/Icons/ernie.bert.gif

Official Washington and the entire press corps will be rocked when Sesame Street's Bert and Ernie are picked as Kerry's VPs and a massive sunny-day-fest will begin!

So predicts a top Washington insider, who spoke to the DRUDGE REPORT on condition he not be named.

"All the signs point in their direction," snuffled the insider, one of the most influential and well-placed in the nation's capital. "It is the solution to every Kerry problem."

MORE

"There are three issues that this campaign will be decided on -- national security, the letter C, and the number 8, not necessarily in that order."

"Kerry believes that no one is better on national security than he is, he served in Vietnam after all, so he has that covered and the suggestion that he needs to strengthen the ticket with someone who has national security credentials is dismissed as foolish."

The insider continues: "The Democrats feel like reading and math are the domestic issues. But how to make them the dominant topics of conversation -- break through war and terrorism? Get two experts at once! Bert and Ernie catapult the issues out front through their use of humor and their colorful fuzzy exteriors. When they last tried to bring their message to America, Cookie Monster ate their letter- and number-shaped pecan sandies. Republicans will use the 'Monster issue' against them, saying that if Bert and Ernie can't manage other Muppets, they won't be able to tackle real issues. Their response -- Grover's Cookie Monster memoir/expose Leaving a Trail of Crumbs Behind. The book reveals Cookie Monster's dirty 'Oscar' ties as well as his youthful indiscretions with former associate 'Animal'. Plus, Bert and Ernie will benefit from powerful surrogate Elmo, who will bring their message to the morning talk shows.

"There are differences of opinion about how this election will be won but one school says its all about the base. Republicans are bumping up against the ceiling with support from their base and Democrats are sitting on the floor. Bringing two fresh faces to the campaign would change that, as Democrats unify their two key consituencies when Bert and Ernie tell Main Street how to get to Sesame Street.

"Official Washington and national media will fall in love with the idea immediately letting Kerry/B&E dominate the news through July and up to the Republican convention. They will say they are doing it for the good of the country. I am convinced this is going to happen."

MORE

"But what about having to wait to run for president? If Bush wins then Bert and Ernie are co-nominees for 2008 because it will be all Kerry's fault (who could blame one Muppet, let alone two?). If Bert and Ernie win they are tied as the first Hispanic VPs of the United States, which would help them become the first Dominican and first Puerto Rican co-presidents, respectively. It would be historic in its own right and change the nature of politics in this country, and mark their place in the history books for ever."

gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 30 June 2004 22:04 (twenty-one years ago)

gabbneb i kiss you

cinniblount (James Blount), Thursday, 1 July 2004 04:04 (twenty-one years ago)

One more wild card - Franklin Raines

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 1 July 2004 20:35 (twenty-one years ago)

Vilsack, Edwards, and Gephardt are the short list; decision early next week. My money is on Edwards, I don't think Kerry is going to pull some big surprise here.

kyle (akmonday), Thursday, 1 July 2004 20:48 (twenty-one years ago)

I give you Vice President Vilesack. Erm, I mean Nastynuts. Uh, Grossballs. Oh hell.

VengaDan Perry (Dan Perry), Thursday, 1 July 2004 20:56 (twenty-one years ago)

Bert and Ernie are hispanic?

Dan I., Thursday, 1 July 2004 21:55 (twenty-one years ago)

From a nonoymous but reliable email xchange:

according to my sources, which are quasi-reliable, kerry is looking to get gephardt as his runningmater. i'm going to keep the typo because it's more amusing that way.

j e r e m y (x Jeremy), Friday, 2 July 2004 01:47 (twenty-one years ago)

M I S T A K E !!!!

kyle (akmonday), Friday, 2 July 2004 06:30 (twenty-one years ago)

I refuse to believe any sane candidate would include Gephardt on his ticket.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Friday, 2 July 2004 08:51 (twenty-one years ago)

two weeks pass...
shoulda put money on this.

hstencil (hstencil), Friday, 16 July 2004 14:11 (twenty-one years ago)

are we going to discuss the bounce (or lack of it, as some might attest)?

I like Edwards as far as his charisma goes. He blew Kerry off the set on 60 Minutes.

dan carville weiner, Friday, 16 July 2004 14:35 (twenty-one years ago)

I s'pose we could also discuss all the "dump Cheney" noise (not that there's much to it).

hstencil (hstencil), Friday, 16 July 2004 15:14 (twenty-one years ago)

In this divided electorate, a Kerry/Christ ticket wouldn't have had much of a bounce.

Symplistic (shmuel), Friday, 16 July 2004 15:49 (twenty-one years ago)

I haven't seen any discussion about the "60 Minutes" interview. I'm not too sure that they came across very well. Theresa singing "Getting to Know You" didn't come across very normal.

Pleasant Plains (Pleasant Plains), Friday, 16 July 2004 16:06 (twenty-one years ago)

that was a bit weird. also, there is this dumb gay lovers joke/meme that cropped up immediately following Edwards selection that Leno played up a lot with some lousy fake campaign ad that got replayed everywhere, and 60 minutes seemed to allude to it, subconsicously ("they REALLY LIKE each other"). This goes hand-in-hand with the "John Kerry is an effete Frenchman" shit the republicans were pulling back during the primaries. The best part was when John Kerry looked like he was going to strangle Leslie Stahl for interrupting them.

kyle (akmonday), Friday, 16 July 2004 16:16 (twenty-one years ago)

Every new GOP meme is defense masquerading as offense. For each attack, ask yourself what fear it tries (and often succeeds) to paper over. Why the 'gay lovers' (real heart and soul of America stuff there) meme, our mention of which does their bidding? Before the choice, the meme was that Kerry/Edwards wouldn't happen because they wouldn't get along, they'd look awkward together. Then it did happen. And boy did they get along. The GOP was afear'd. They'd have to drop the 'these guys don't really like each other' line, and needed something to replace it, fast. So they went in entirely the opposite direction. No one calls that a flip-flop, of course.

As for the 'bounce', with some subscription to Pleasant Plains' divided-electorate caveat above, there certainly is one. The evidence is as follows (remember announcement was 7/6 AM; * indicates poll included Nader):

NBC poll (7/6): Kerry 54-43

*NBC/WSJ poll (6/25-28): Bush 45-44
*NBC poll (7/6): Kerry 49-41

*IBD/TIPP poll (6/14-19): Bush 44-41
*IBD/TIPP poll (7/6-10): Kerry 47-43

*Gallup poll (6/9-30): Bush 45-44
*Gallup/CNN/USAT poll (7/8-11): Kerry 50-45

Rasmussen poll (7/6): Bush 47-46
Rasmussen poll (7/10): Kerry 49-45

Time poll (6/2-4): Bush 49-48
Time poll (7/6-8): Kerry 49-45

Newsweek poll (7/8-9): Kerry 51-45

CBS/NYT poll (6/23-37): Kerry 45-44
CBS poll (7/6): Kerry 49-44

*Zogby poll of Tennessee (6/15-20): Bush 57.4-38.6
*Zogby poll of Tennessee (7/6-10): Tie at 47.5

*Zogby poll of Ohio (6/15-20): Bush 50.5-45.1
*Zogby poll of Ohio (7/6-10): Kerry 48.6-47.9

*Zogby poll of New Hampshire (6/15-20): Kerry 46.2-42.9
*Zogby poll of New Hampshire (7/6-10): Kerry 49.3-40.3

*Zogby poll of Wisconsin (6/15-20): Kerry 50.6-46.2
*Zogby poll of Wisconsin (7/6-10): Kerry 53.3-43.9

*Zogby poll of Missouri (6/15-20): Bush 48.6-47.9
*Zogby poll of Missouri (7/6-10): Kerry 50.1-46.8

*Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania (6/21-22): Kerry 44-43
*Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania (7/6-11): Kerry 46-41

Mason-Dixon poll of North Carolina (5/14-17): Bush 48-41
Mason-Dixon poll of North Carolina (7/12-13): Bush 48-45

The big poll cited to show that there was no bounce was the AP/Ipsos poll (7/5-7) that showed Bush up 49-45. The AP/Ipsos poll has never shown a Kerry lead (except in a pre-Edwards poll that included Edwards as the prospective veep). While Bush did go up 3 points in that poll since the pre-Edwards poll, Kerry's support stayed the same - Bush's jump came entirely out of Nader, who went down 3.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Friday, 16 July 2004 17:21 (twenty-one years ago)

(I should add the caveat that I find the Zogby state polls suspect, both before and now)

Some more state polls:

Florida (SUSA 6/12-14): Bush 50-43
Florida (SUSA 7/9-11): Kerry 47-44

*Florida (Zogby 6/15-20): 50.3-46.1
*Florida (Zogby 7/6-10): Kerry 50.8-44.2

*Michigan (Zogby 6/15-20): Bush 46.8-46.1
*Michigan (Zogby 7/6-10): Kerry 50-44.1

South Carolina (SUSA 7/10-12): Bush 51-44

gabbneb (gabbneb), Friday, 16 July 2004 17:43 (twenty-one years ago)

I left out who was leading the Florida June Zogby - Bush

gabbneb (gabbneb), Friday, 16 July 2004 17:45 (twenty-one years ago)

That was my divided electorate caveat, bitch.

Symplistic (shmuel), Friday, 16 July 2004 19:38 (twenty-one years ago)

There was a small bounce, but Bush's pollster was calling a fifteen point Kerry lead after the convention. Which is such an impossible outcome (and would mean Kerry's won, besides) that it's as if he had an ulterior motive of some kind by raising expectations of a huge bounce that will never come, leading the media to say "Kerry's bounce disappoints" etc etc

Symplistic (shmuel), Friday, 16 July 2004 19:42 (twenty-one years ago)

did anyone else hear the nader/dean debate on NPR?

nader is such a putz.

amateur!st (amateurist), Friday, 16 July 2004 19:43 (twenty-one years ago)

Sorry Symplistic.

I heard the Nader/Dean debate. Not that exciting, but it did have one great moment (paraphrased, perhaps)...

Moderator: "Governor Dean, do you have any advice for Mr. Nader?"
Dean: "Yeah, lighten up."

gabbneb (gabbneb), Friday, 16 July 2004 19:56 (twenty-one years ago)

i liked when dean asked nader what his plan for winning 200 electoral votes was.

amateur!st (amateurist), Friday, 16 July 2004 19:58 (twenty-one years ago)


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