The next huge global financial crisis/collapse

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2015/02/index.htm

not predictive specifically but prob relevant context

Tradition dictates that the shit hits the fan in September/October.

voted spring, still time to stockpile food and seeds and weapons

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/beware-great-2016-financial-crisis-warns-city-pessimist

where can I apply for the local position of City Pessimist

Apply here.

need it to wait until mid november

Voted fall, but I don't know what moment counts as shit really hitting the fan. There are often multiple moments, sometimes months apart.

ASAP

people predict crises too often. i don't see anything major happening soon.

We've got five years, my brain hurts a lot

people predict crises too often. i don't see anything major happening soon.

― remove butt (abanana), Wednesday, January 13, 2016 11:53 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

nah, something's definitely up

consumer confidence!

18 at the earliest

There should be a 'lets kick back and surf that wave when it comes' option.

Like I wonder the background of the people making predictions - what bets have they placed on the outcome and what they gain from it if they are right about it.

voted 2017. people have a year of toughing out increasing "corrections" and various govt half measures before some big institution goes pop and everyone stops pretending.

"the market can stay irrational longer than your short bet can stay solvent"

re: predictions. Obv Chinese markets have gone downhill but that has been happening before the end of the year.

I'm not sure it will be "big institution goes pop" that will push things over the edge. Or even a worldwide stock market meltdown.

Exciting times.

Last time around there was a specific thing that sunk the economy (mortgage backed securities and the derivatives who loved them) and there were actually people sounding warnings about them for a while before the collapse, as well as some false starts and "whews". This time it doesn't seem like there's one clear culprit, more like the monetary policy that has propped things up since last time is running out of steam.

Chinese markets started going down last year but the plunge was halted by govt intervention. Now they are plunging again.

'in a crowded hall, exit doors are small' is a pretty chilling thing to read, no matter what the context is

I think there'll be a big recession, possibly worldwide, but it will be a standard recession rather than a full on 2008-style meltdown. Problem is that confidence (and govt balance sheets) are so fragile that when it does hit it'll hurt a lot more than a standard recession.

yeah

prob just endless stagnation (while the rich keep getting richer obv)

i think hurting's right, there doesn't seem to be something big that's about to pop, more like some not good but not freaky normal stuff

said this on the other thread but what are the really bad things going on in the global economy? china slowing down and no one really knows how slow, oil prices low, europe stagnant, emerging markets disappointing expectations. anything else?

i guess i agree with matt but i'm not convinced it's going to be big or global. obviously you never know with these things

I feel like there is probably some murky bad shit we don't fully know about yet, bc there always is. A lot of people innocently said the RMBS stuff wasn't going to blow up as bad as it did because they didn't realize how much off-balance sheet crap there was, how much bad loan practice there was, the finite details of CDS contracts that could trigger chain reactions, etc. A lot of people, though others cynically promised all would be ok knowing better. So I'm ready to find out that there's more bad shit under the surface in this case too.

yup

maybe this time it will be offset a little more by the low commodity prices but things are still pretty scary as they stand.

voted Autumn 2016 (northern hemisphere)

no 'roaring twenties' option?

Voted Autumn 2016 too.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

I'd say around 2019.

Can we get over the last crisis first?

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

when was the before last one? 2000? 1973? 1939? would break the trend for another one to come so soon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987) ?

so we should be good for another 10 years :-P

I always thought the last one before the dot-com bust was the S&L crisis

Fun times

the current tech bubble is probably deflating but since mostly it's VC money wrapped up in that it might avoid affecting real people's wealth all that much.

dow is lowest in a little over two years

Buy, buy, buy!

Concern going around that Citigroup is overexposed to energy -- apparently they're being cagier about it than other banks which is worsening the fear. Stock is really tanking.

Here's an article from January about energy exposure at the big banks:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-u-s-banks-energy-factbox-idUSKCN0UY2K4

It looks like Morgan Stanley was highest at 5%, and their stock has been crushed even worse then Citi. Citi was next at 3.3%, and then BofA at 2.4%.

For a year or two leading up to the 2008 crisis, financial companies were putting out reports giving their supposed exposure to housing, and these often turned out to be underestimating or hiding exposure. I don't know the details of energy structured finance enough to say whether there's a similar risk here (and maybe no one does, since if the banks are being banks they're disguising the risks in a different way than they did last time around), but I think that's probably part of why the market is jittery.

I wonder what news came out at precisely 2:38 pm that caused a nearly identical-looking sudden bounce in the dow, nasdaq and S&P.

Well, when looking at those exposure numbers you also have to keep in mind the leverage (which was way higher in 2008 than it is now). So for a bank levered 10x, a 5% loss in assets could wipe out equity by 50%, which is why you see bank stocks getting crushed. But in 2008 when the banks were levered sometimes as much as 30x, it would make the bank insolvent.

True. I don't think anyone expects a 100% loss on anyone's energy loan portfolio, but that definitely highlights the risks. I've also been hearing "well these are asset-backed loans so it's not as bad as it sounds" but as a complete industry know-nothing I still kind of wonder -- what assets? Wells that no one wants to drill? Drills that are of no use when oil is at $27/barrel? Like, mortgages are secured debt too, that doesn't mean banks or other mortgage investors come out ok foreclosing on the underlying properties.

Starting to pay attention to the Hanjin bankruptcy and what's going on in the shipping and shipping finance industries, think it could portend something larger

more stranded performance artists?

Shipping does appear to be fairly specific in that they've massively oversupplied the market with capacity but the idea that demand for physical 'things' is dropping is interesting.

Apparently a lot of carriers have been running at a loss and some shipping banks are at risk as well. If shipping prices have to rise sharply it could mean interesting things for this crazy global economy we've developed. I mean it's specific but it's also baked into everything.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/maersk-to-split-into-two-units-1474529401

Maersk splitting off its oil shipping business -- getting hit hard by both low oil prices and shipping price wars

Real-time Hanjin ship tracker: https://www.lloydslist.com/ll/incoming/article535968.ece - there's still a lot out there.

Can't wait for the markets to flip the fuck out right after I put a down payment on our new house. Why couldn't I have voted for fall 2017 instead?

can't believe there wasn't a post 2018 option itp. we may have but i'm pretty sure we aren't guaranteed a financial crisis in the next 2 years ffs.

the consensus of ilx economic geniuses tho is next month i guess better buckle up