Do you think Donald Trump will be out of office by July 1, 2017?

nah, possibly not too long after tho

no ;_;

no but at this point i'd be content with a president pence for an excruciating 3+ years, i feel like any damage he'd do is more likely to be rolled back and he's more defeatable than trump and also i assume Trump's fascist pals would be gone along with him.

pence is a piece of shit but he's more predictable

the idea of bannon trying to puppet a pence administration makes for some interesting fanfic

anyways i think trump will still be here on july 1. will require a crushing midterm defeat of republicans in 2018 before impeachment becomes a possibility and even then idk. democrats kind of suck right now

there will certainly be a number of huge scandals though

marcos otm

there's really no likely legal avenue to remove him from office w the GOP in control of Congress

the thing that I keep coming back to his is his health, and the incredible stresses that the Presidency brings. the guy is already losing his mind, he's a walking heart attack. look at these fucks, they look like they belong in quarantine:

https://splicetoday.imgix.net/uploads/posts/photos/21034/Donald-Trump-Steve-Bannon-Stephen-K-Bannon-White-House-Jan-2017-Swearing-in-Getty-640x480.jpg

I didn't expect that he could possibly be elected in the first place, so I'm going to guess that he'll win a second term.

if i were the republicans i'd be very worried about trump's health. even as sick as he is, if he does die in office nobody will ever believe that it was of natural causes.

i think it all depends on how much bad shit has actually happened by july 1 - clearly a lot of egregious shit has been announced and/or planned but i'd be surprised if much of the actual sewage had started lapping around gop supporters' waists by then

plus it's only a week in to the trump administration, and while they've been hammered by the press it's entirely possible that displaying even basic competence will be enough to tip the scales so the headlines read 'embattled trump begins to right the ship' or whatever

impeachment is out. it's a long process and it wouldn't be completed by July 1, 2017, even if they started hearings today. the historic odds of assassination are under 1% within any five month period. a military coup by July 1? it has never happened yet in the USA and the tradition of obedience to civilian authority won't break down that quickly. resignation would be contrary to every fiber of Trump's wooden heart. it's for losers.

that only leaves death by sudden, but natural causes and that's far less than a 50-50 chance before July. so, despite the ardent wishes of tens of millions of people worldwide, the smart guess is: so not gonna happen.

yeah i don't think impeachment is possible before July 1, assassination attempts are p rare ever since Reagan, a military coup would be a whole new level of insanity, and a voluntary resignation just seems unlikely considering how scandal-proof he is. I put money on this date based strictly on his weight, his health, his alleged use of steroids and amphetamines, and the uniquely stressful / mind-bending experience of being the POTUS.

I have no idea. I can't bring myself to make any predictions more optimistic than total catastrophe. I'm reduced to hoping that the inevitable massive natural disaster occurs before the inevitable terrorist attack.

i think the chances of him blurting out something highly classified in a public forum by july 1 are about 95% tho

instead of daydreaming about trump dying, it is more to the point to organize and resist.

I'm sure this is 100% wishful thinking but if his approval rating starts getting into the 20's I can see a number of GOP senators flipping on him. Gotta think about re-election after all.

im not daydreaming man i've got side bets going. this is venture capitalism

i guess if and when we find out the stuff which shocked and horrified attendees at the classified cia briefing might tip the scales on this too

^^^ yeah I think this is our best chance at getting him out right now

last night Maddow was saying something about an executive order Trump was drafting to lift sanctions on Russia, which raises an awful lot of suspicion because there's literally no reason to do it. she speculated that it might be a "thank you" to them for tipping the election in his favor but we know Trump doesn't really pay his debts once he gets what he wants so I think there's a good chance this is part of some deal.

and I know the entire GOP is bending the knee for Trump right now but if there was proven Russian collusion and possible treason charges....

He'll be in till 2021 and Dems will lose in 2018.

Should we apply Trump's Razor to this question? What is the dumbest possibility that can happen? He outlives his staff?

Also, are there various U.K./Irish betting sites tracking the odds of each outcome yet?

last I heard they were offering 1:1 odds that he doesn't finish out the 4 years

we're still at Denial then?

but if there was proven Russian collusion and possible treason charges....

no there would not be, and this will never happen

No chance and I've found myself falling into the trap that it will all be over soon, but the reality is that it won't.

*of THINKING that it will all be over soon

we're still at Denial then?

― Onanisi Paizuri (Noodle Vague)

ping-ponging between that and Anger, mostly.

kind of lol at everybody who is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN about what will or will not ever happen. predicting next week is about as exact a science as predicting the afterlife at this point.

no one gets charged with treason anymore, much less a sitting President with the full support of his party

and assassination is just incredibly difficult in this day and age, the President travels in a v secure bubble, you can't just walk up to one in a train station and open fire like you could 100 years ago

no-one ever talks about that when they say things were better in the old days, eh? 'time was you could assassinate a leader, easy as pie. great days they was, lads, great days, you could shoot an archduke and then say a matinee, get a lemonade and a pie and still have chance from a shilling. of course it were all fields round here then...'

xpost until Trump decides he gots to go to McDonalds at 3 am

Shakey, if anything in this life is certain, if history has taught us anything, it is that you can trump anyone.

xpost "our assassins had a code. Leo Czolgosz had an ethos, he stood up to those capitalists! John HInckley wanted to get laid "

lol bizarro

i wouldn't be at all surprised if there were multiple attempts on obama that they didn't publicize as a precaution from it being taken as an 'open season' signal to the crazies

or, let's say, failed plans if not attempts

i've positively surprised he made it out unscathed. I was terrified of the prospect shortly after he got elected.

if we're defining "crazies" as "dudes who want to shoot prominent black men" then the US is experiencing a mental illness epidemic

as far as i can tell the secret service is the only actually effective covert us government organization. i genuinely have no idea how they manage it.

Regular parties with prostitutes iirc

lol

heh

not July but he won't last 4 years either

Shot by SS after giving the order to nuke somewhere still an outside chance...

No, he'll be dictator-for-life until he dies at the age of 152.

Bannon was cute as a young ratfucker

kind of getting some james spader vibes from young bannon

too much denim!

looks like Daryl Hall!

If it's planned right, no problem. Look how close they got to De Gaulle.

That was a long time ago. Just doesn't seem to happen any more. Unless the secret services are in on it, e.g. Benazir Bhutto.

what is the particular reason that assassination attempts on public figures have declined since the 60s, 70s, 80s?

They got Zoran Dindic with a sniper in 2003.

People just twitter storm instead

xp

no one is that into Jodie Foster these days?

I assume due to improvements in the technology and techniques of security agencies.

no mo drop toppin

I assume due to improvements in the technology and techniques of security agencies.

^^^

president goes anywhere these days, the entire surrounding area is shut down, canvassed and secured

Bullshit! There's all kinds of new stuff. I heard about rockets in an umbrella - they're tested at Fort Detrick? I can show you a dozen
poisons. Stick it in his food, he'll die in three days, no trace. We can put something in his hair, make it fall out, he'll look fuckin'
ridiculous without his hair!

Soto likely quoting that nutty movie i saw in '91

no one is that into Jodie Foster these days?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpc2pU1Ms0s

kids today just don't have the same grit they used to, they're too busy playing snake on their new-fangled nokias to take a shot at an elected representative

Or else they're killing ordinary people, that's just lazy.

Jared Loughner sure didn't have as many problems as he should have

a lot of the famous ppl assassinated in the 60s and 70s didn't have security details or even bodyguards. presidential candidates didn't get secret service protection until after RFK.

Jared Loughner sure didn't have as many problems as he should have

Reps generally don't have security details afaik

That was a long time ago. Just doesn't seem to happen any more. Unless the secret services are in on it, e.g. Benazir Bhutto.

A guy was able to shoot a rifle at Chirac's car in 2002 during the 14th of July celebrations. Missed the target.

How could I forget, we had a political assassination in the UK this year, carried out by a Brexit supporting white supremacist and fascist. He must have been delighted to see Trump win.

... last year. Brexit still won.

political assassinations obviously still happen, just not generally to heads of state, who have a higher degree of protection than lower level office-holders

Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threatening_the_President_of_the_United_States

Threatening the President of the United States is a serious crime and a class E felony under United States Code Title 18, Section 871.[1][2][3] It consists of knowingly and willfully mailing or otherwise making "any threat to take the life of, to kidnap, or to inflict bodily harm upon the President of the United States".
(...)
The statute prohibiting threats against the President was enacted by Congress in 1917. The maximum fine it allowed was $1,000. The law was amended in 1994 to increase the maximum fine to $250,000.
(...)

Convictions under 18 U.S.C. § 871 have been sustained for declaring that "President Wilson ought to be killed. It is a wonder some one has not done it already. If I had an opportunity, I would do it myself.";[7] and for declaring that "Wilson is a wooden-headed son of a bitch. I wish Wilson was in hell, and if I had the power I would put him there."

― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Friday, January 27, 2017 5:26 PM (twenty-six minutes ago)

reading through the interpretation section of this article makes it seem that the threat has to be credible to convict. i'd imagine the brandenburg v ohio ruling would be pretty instructive

contrary to popular belief you're allowed to advocate violent overthrow of the government. the president shouldnt be an exception

There are a ton of political assassinations in Russia. They're just carried out by the government instead of against it.

the president shouldnt be an exception

The law was passed under Woodrow Wilson, ilx's favorite despotic president.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/04/secret-service-wouldnt-hesitate-to-kill-mr-met.html

brandenburg v ohio

wow there's a case I haven't heard in awhile, brings back high school mock trial memoooorrieees

imo one of the cases for which SCOTUS should be most proud

buckle in for at least 4 years of this

of us debating in this thread?

I'm surprised Hunter Thompson wasn't in that Wikipedia entry; he gave a speech at some university where he said, "George Bush [the elder] ought to be stomped to death, and I'll join in," and the Secret Service showed up at his ranch to have a talk with him.

they were just there to express their criticisms of Rum Diary

of us debating in this thread?

4 years of standing under the Trump Tower garbage chute waiting for the next piece of trash to come down, hoping it is the worst yet, hoping that it will be enough to turn back the hands of time, hoping in vain, binge-watching the modern equivalent of Orwell's "Two Minutes Hate"

For some weird reason two of the latest political assassinations in Europe is Oluf Palme and Anna Lindh. Something is weird in Sweden.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Voted yes in a vision-board mindset. Wishing makes it so.

-6 approval on Rasmussen today.

Maybe when Trump said his ACA replacement would be 'terrific', he meant it in the sense of 'terrifying'.

Well, if you mean 'physically' out of the White House, there is probably a good chance as 7/1 is a Saturday and he will probably be kicking it down at Mar Lago with the big borgies on the big 4th weekend of golf and bloody human sacrifice.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

20 active users on the trump threads

The other recently permabanned

-6 approval on Rasmussen today.

lol ok. also:

Forty-two percent (42%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending March 9.

may as well wait a few more days before you shake that magic eight ball

you know that isn't a particularly good stat right

lol Gallup back to -16 after swinging the other way last week

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

oh how naive i was

Your heart was in the right place.

FWIW, I think it's still possible that he will be.