2017's Oscar Nominees

In descending order:

Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
CMBYN
Get out
The Shape of Water.

Fuck the rest.

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This year would've been particularly easy to guess what the slate would've been with just five ...

Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Will wait till I've seen Ladybird but atm Phantom Thread > CMBYN > Get Out. Not fussed about seeing the rest.

CMBYN - admirable I suppose but a bit boring.
Darkest Hour - haven't seen don't want to.
Dunkirk - An effective fairground ride.
Get Out - great, won't win.
Lady Bird - haven't seen, want to.
Phantom Thread - terrific, won't win but maybe a slightly higher chance than Get Out.
The Post - haven't seen, everyone says it's dull.
TSOW - haven't seen, really want to.
Three Billboards - Disappointing but enjoyable.

Of the five I've seen, Lady Bird; of the other four, Call Me By Your Name could conceivably change that.

I've only seen Phantom Thread, Get Out and (ugh) Dunkirk, and I plan to keep it that way for the foreseeable future.

Phantom Thread, Lady Bird and Get Out are the only three better than good here, tho I'll also stunt for aspects of The Post and CMBYN, and Sicinski's take on Dunkirk at least gives me pause.

I've seen one and I plan to keep it that way for the foreseeable future. Not on the Oscar beat this year, makes my winter a whole lot happier.

I liked Get Out and sort-of liked CMBYN, but I don't feel like I can vote in this without having seen Lady Bird, The Phantom Thread, The Post or The Shape of Water (the others don't interest me at all).

I think I like The Phantom Thread better as a title; sounds more superhero-ey.

Phantom Thread - 9/10
Lady Bird - 8/10
CMBYN - 8/10
The Post - 7/10
Dunkirk - 6/10
Get Out - 6/10

will see Shape of Water at some point, no interest in the other two.

Phantom Thread 8/10
Get Out 8/10
CMBYN 7/10
Dunkirk 6/10
TBOEM 5/10

Not yet opened in the UK:
Shape of Water (but have never, ever liked this dude's movies, so not hopeful)
Lady Bird

No interest:
The Post
Darkest Hour

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Seen five, voting for Get Out, which is gonna be a cultural touchstone for years and years. Not sure you can say that about any of the other films

Released exactly a year ago this weekend. If it wins -- a big if -- it'll be, what, the earliest movie released to win Best Picture since Silence of the Lambs?

Would be thrilled if it won, I think it's gonna walk away with Screenplay but lose out on the other major categories

It would also be the only horror winner since then. I'm pretty sure TSOW is taking it, though.

I can honestly say I have no idea what is going to win Best Pic.

It's going to not be Darkest Hour or The Post or Call Me By Your Name. Beyond that, anything's possible.

Shape of Water seems to be heavily favoured among awards that tend to be predictive of the Oscars BP

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/oscars-math-predicts-a-shape-water-best-picture-win-1089106/item/best-picture-oscars-2018-ben-zauzmer-math-1089109

have seen 6/9

PT, but really who cares and FUCK 'EM

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.