Second Referendum - Who Wins?

^ who would win, not who you would vote for

This would probably be a more worthwhile exercise if non-UK ilxors refrained from voting in it.

banter heuristic outcome: leave wins by an increased margin

close Remain win but ossified Leave support among at least 40% of the electorate

I have such misgivings about the whole notion I'm tempted to say none of us whatever happens.

I'd prefer it if Parliament can revoke Article 50 without taking it to a public vote.

Remain though, with ensuing decimation of the Labour party.

what's the question? 1 leave OR remain? 2 if leave: may's deal OR no deal?

1. Who sets the question, and what do you think it should be?

7. The last EU referendum climaxed with a Labour MP being shot and stabbed in the street by a self-declared British nationalist, after a toxic discussion about immigration that came after decades of right-wing scaremongering, liberal and left failures to counter that scaremongering, and a pro-EU campaign that largely accepted the right’s terms of debate on the issue. Very little seems to have been learned from Cox’s murder, and its political specifics. How would you ensure that a second vote on this issue would not be just as – or even more – unpleasant? How will you counter the full-on assault on the UK’s democratic institutions that will come from the far-right press, its political representatives and street movements?

8. What will you say to people in Leave-voting areas – especially the ones who hadn’t voted before and saw this as their one chance to send a message to the political establishment – that they can’t have the thing they voted for? (Especially given that telling people how much money the EU provides to their region didn’t have much effect last time.)

9. How will you convince people who voted Remain in 2016 but are not particularly animated by the EU as an issue, and are bored with the whole thing (as my mother, for example, tells me whenever the subject comes up), that they should vote again?

11. Why are you so certain that Remain will win, given how the 2016 referendum turned out? What will you do differently this time?

14. And what will you say to people to say that if you don’t respect the result of the first vote, why should anyone respect the result of a second?

15. Once all these questions are answered – who will lead your campaign?

https://newsocialist.org.uk/questions-organisers-peoples-vote-campaign/

remain wins easily

fuck the entrenched leave voters you disagree with a lot of ppl about a lot of issues lyfe

3rd option: its not happening.

you're supposed to pretend it will

It would be a totally different campaign on both sides - the Remain side would be "you've seen what Brexit actually looks like now" rather than vague Project Fear. The Leave campaign would be a hysterical betrayal narrative that would sweep enough people along with it to be dangerous.

Safe to say the Remain side would be a lot less complacent now and committed enthusiatic europhilia feels like more of a thing than three years ago, while Leave voters could be experiencing burnout or boredom. Plus its the Remain side that becomes about kicking established politicians this time round.

I think Remain wins but narrowly. God knows how wide the margin of victory would need to be to even vaguely setlle this.

it would need to be a victory of this scale to settle it (for a generation, at least):

Yes 17,378,581 67.23%
No 8,470,073 32.77%

Remain 55+% with a turnout around 80%

Narrowly remain, our troubles are just beginning.

what's the question? 1 leave OR remain? 2 if leave: may's deal OR no deal?

― PaulDananVEVO (||||||||),

whatever version of leave you think vs whatever version of remain (i think theres only one but who knows)

3rd option: its not happening.

― xyzzzz__,

Of course its not happening out there in the real world. In here we can speculate

the Remain side would be "you've seen what Brexit actually looks like now" rather than vague Project Fear

But we haven't seen what Brexit looks like?

I dont know that the campaigns would be particularly different. Leave would focus more on the elites are stealing democracy, idk what Remain would do

I think you're right about some level of fatigue on leave side but I wouldn't bet on any outcome other than a tiny margin of victory for someone

Remain just needs to start doing the absolute polar opposite of what they have done since 2016. and obv don't let the likes of Geldof, Blair, Salmond, Izzard, Adonis anywhere near it again.. and even then they are doomed :p

Remain 55+% with a turnout around 80%

I think Remain would win but I think the turnout would collapse - which would suit Remain.

unguessable which is still only the 3rd or 4th reason not to do this shit

well Germany have their faults, but at least they realised referendums don't suit cobbled together contrivances of "United" kingdoms, with too many fucking loon tunes!

I think remain would win, and the turnout would be way up!

yes, i think so too

Seriously, all those who were indifferent or were don't know, now have purpose and know.

like i think its obvious.

but idg where uk ilx is on the whole thing tho its very interesting tbs tbs

hasn’t been a single poll in almost a year now with Leave lead. 70 polls since GE17 show only two (+1) leads, 5 Ties, 63 Remain leads, recent avg plus 7/8 remain.

Hypothesis: General Election 2017 was a structural break in polled support for Remain/Leave

Via @britainelects pic.twitter.com/gLnSCpi5nW

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) March 26, 2019

Y-axis key there

it’s really misleading, as Tom Ewing pointed out. The movement is a lot more slow moving and the general positions more static than it implies. Trust and accuracy really not helped by that sort of thing.

plus the remain leads are all within the margin of error.

I wouldn’t want to press the issue within that envelope

am i missing where those trends are actually identified or wha

the result wouldn't matter

because democracy would've been betrayed or...?

Things are already broken

yes, the uk's status in the EU is already broken and they wouldn't be able to operate as before, 'leave' is as we have seen uselessly vague.

You don't think that couldn't be repaired with the help of a different government, better diplomacy and concerted effort from all sides? With this lot in power, it's broken, I agree.

there's no way the brexit noise is going away for the next decade or so whoever is in power and whatever happens next, so the UK's status will be precarious in a way it never was before

Seriously, all those who were indifferent or were don't know, now have purpose and know.

This is a remarkably optimistic view of a group of 'voters', a lot of whom would struggle to name the Prime Minister. Not only are these people unlikely to vote but I can well imagine that large numbers of people who DID vote in the first referendum, who have never or rarely voted for anything before or since, and who seem to have voted overwhelmingly to leave, would have reverted to their customary state of lassitude/apathy. I'm not seeing much evidence that the general public are more exercised about Brexit than first time round.

i fought with me ma so im setting fire to the gaff, fuck it

OK, I roll back the word "all" there, and substitute "most".

But then again, I didn't get where I am today by being reasonable!

(where am i?)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

jesus get this to bercow. tonight!

I'm not seeing much evidence that the general public are more exercised about Brexit than first time round.

If this whole thing had actually engaged those voters politically, folks would now be excited about an extension enabling them to vote for their MEPs and thus exercise British control over the Brussels bastards in the event of no Brexit

On the one hand, that's a decisive win.

On the other, the Talk Talk/Mark Hollis poll got more votes in total.

no no the results are in millions iirc

less talk talk more baulk baulk

lol @ waking up and wanting any kind of 2nd ref today and everyday