Will there still be a United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in 20 years' time?

N. Ireland and Scotland out, Wales in, but mostly cuz I’m an ign’nt American and don’t know anything about welsh sovereignty agitation if it exists

Option 3, but with Wales angling for some kind of special status due to post-Johnson Tory govt (or Starmer govt, same thing) panicking about the whole shebang falling down around their ears.

xpost: Silby, it does exist but at far lower levels than the other two. Partly because of the fact that Wales was subjugated by the English far earlier, and partly for the related reason that any English plantation in Wales happened far earlier as a result.

This even had repercussions for the Brexit vote in Wales which, like England, was narrowly pro-leave, but if you do more in-depth analysis you discover the areas voting most strongly for leave were those with the highest English populations or people of English ancestry.

Welsh independence LOL

I don't know why they would be unhappy with the status quo in Wales, they a Labour majority in the Senedd - what more do they want?!

I suppose it's possible, in a fit of pique, the English might tell the Welsh to piss off.

that will be the next referendum

probably fair to say that Longshanks succeeded in brutally hammering all resistance to English rule in Wales in a way he couldn't do in Scotland. I don't see many Welsh independence campaigners, they are probably a minority of either yobbish Cardiff Fans who can't even spell the word or like the bourgie university prof who reluctantly took the young prince Charles under his wing in The Crown!

Irish reunification, independent Scotland, rump fascist state.

Voted 3. I wonder if seperatist movements within England will gain traction. Cornwall is obvious one, but wouldn’t be surprised if calls for a seperate state in far north of England or Yorkshire were to start happening.

I don't see many Welsh independence campaigners

It's barely more than Cornwall (xpost with Dan!) tho I can see Cornish resentment growing once they realise how much they were propped up by the EU. Actually the Welsh might end up forming a union with the Cornish given the shared Celtic heritage and the English folk buying up property in both!

Welsh independence LOL

― Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 bookmarkflaglink

You laugh but recent polling is showing a hardened attitude for independence in Wales. Covid to thank for that one.

Don't quite see independence for anybody though. Many crises to come in the EU and for capital, plus if the ultras take over we actually have these weapons of mass destruction. Chances of an incident could be pretty high.

Anyway, it's going to be a wild ride.

I voted for the second option but it'll be in this order: Scottish independence (in less than 5 years), then Irish unification (in less than 10 years), then Welsh independence (15-20 years).

Looking forward to Wales taking its seat in the United Nations, alongside Vanuatu.

I imagine Vanuatu has a higher GDP than Wales tbf.

Heart says option 2 but option 1 is most likely you’re all stuck in hell together.

King Archie will subjugate all rebel states in 2066.

UK will still exist in its current form in 20 years

Northern Ireland independent but not united

Most of Northern Ireland united with Ireland apart from the top right hand corner united with Scotland. And the Isle of Man.

Went with #3, although it's mostly wishful thinking on my part.

Scotland becomes independent and later rejoins EU, Irish (re)unification, England & Wales are what's left of UK

Pre-Union of the Crowns then, with added EU membership

Voted irish unification, scottish independence. Though the status quo is maybe more likely

Tories are never going to allow another scottish independence referendum for a start

If the Tories don't allow one then the Scots will hold their own. And if the Westminster government doesn't accept a Yes vote --> UDI.

Worked for Catalonia.

Misspelt UDA

If Johnson's still PM he'll most likely do the easiest thing in that moment, which would be to grant a referendum five minutes after saying he'd never do such a thing.

Federalism in the UK a dark horse option here I guess

Northern Ireland independent but not united

i feel like this is some sort of step that will have to happen before a united Ireland yeah

tbh its a bit groucho marx club quote wisdom but i think that the only way a united ireland could happen in a healthy way would be fifty years after the last person who cares a fig about the ideology of it has died and some young one in a roads office our side asks "why dont we.....?" in 2120 as part of a scoping exercise and her NI counterpart who normally just looks after whatever photocopiers look like at that stage says "sure" in a response and not even a local councillor notices it was done until march the next year

Most government should be done like this, well away from politicians and certainly interested citizens

I thought about federalism but can’t really see the route to it now. They fucked the chance to move to it after The Vow and Brexit makes it harder.

PM Wilf the Younger is just not gonna stand for it lads.

Northern Ireland independent but not united

Quite a few Loyalists supported this notion back in the day.

Federalism in the UK a dark horse option here I guess

Not while the Tories are in charge - which is probably for the next 4000 years.

They'll win the next two elections probably, but after that Jhn Harris will be interviewing 'voted Conservative all my life but not this time' types (who last voted Conservative 20 years ago back in 2015)

that's not even a joke, it's probably quite prescient. Only they'll voting for Wes Streeting with the grey streaks at this point!

some young one in a roads office our side asks "why dont we.....?" in 2120 as part of a scoping exercise and her NI counterpart who normally just looks after whatever photocopiers look like at that stage says "sure" in a response and not even a local councillor notices it was done until march the next year

There is some precedent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Berlin_Wall#Misinformed_public_announcements

how long til an independent city-state of london?

The independent city-state of Canonbury

If the Tories don't allow one then the Scots will hold their own. And if the Westminster government doesn't accept a Yes vote --> UDI.

― Grandpont Genie, Thursday, December 31, 2020 8:12 AM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is fantasy

LOL @ this fucking clown

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18983073.scottish-independence-boris-johnson-rules-new-vote-2055/

How would another ref happen in a few years time?

Holyrood elections are this year, it's going to be a manifesto committment from the SNP (likely)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdSqLfuRN18

Voted Scots independence only.

what is the UK anyway? a multinational state? or a nation state? some kind of crypto-ethnostate, or 1-4 of them? an empire rump state? an english occupation? has this ever been properly established, it all seems contested still & will only get more so I'm sure

I hope the UK comes to an end soon enough but it won't be pretty. more English nationalism is a horrifying prospect (is there any non-negative way to define Englishness, as opposed to Britishness?)

I expect radical change within 20 years, definitely for worse, hopefully some for better too but optimism is hard

a loose affiliation of millionaires and billionaires and baby

these are the days of miracle and wonder

Also fully expect Westminster to actually attempt “punishment” deals for Scotland of the kind they tried to portray the EU as giving them

The grim reveal of Scotland's strategic and economic utility to the UK will lead to god knows what level of fuckery during the divorce

Could go back to colonial mercantilism

Have you seen the backup at their ports?

what is the UK anyway?

People have had 300-odd years to work that out and they haven't managed it yet - not that many have ever bothered trying tbf.

lots of European countries are unitary states that have more or less restive regions that were formerly independent and have a (sub-)national identity and national movements, so we're hardly unique. probably the majority of people in each of its constituent parts have some sort of feeling of britishness still, despite it all - although they're cutting it fine in Scotland, and the occupied 6 are surely a demographic time-bomb (indelicate word-choice) for the ulster scots

Britishness seems an especially ill-defined concept though.

Britishness is "ye were with us when we done it"

Britishness seems an especially ill-defined concept though.

― Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Tuesday, January 5, 2021 4:07 AM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I feel like my rejoinder here would be that even when there is a well-defined national identity - scots are industrious, canny, salt of the earth, with a ready wit and an egalitarian spirit, we're aw jock tamson's brains etc. - it's more or less utter bullshit. also I live in Canada, what is the defining feature of a multicultural colonial nation with two completely separate cultures (anglo and franco)

so it's a common concern, not unique to the uk.

can't think of many nation states in Europe that don't contain at least one reluctant extra nation, that's true

Murra dhea and even we have Cork

Annibyniaeth Cymru nawr!

Scotland will never leave the UK.

I'm nearly 56. Here's me doing 18 pull ups. I'll guarantee you that none of the SNP's candidates for Holyrood 2021 will be able to do anything similar. How do I know? Because their lives are full of excuses. Everything is someone else's fault. They take responsibility for nothing pic.twitter.com/ZaDvCEGNwJ

— Craig4Pollok (@Craig4P) January 4, 2021

Aw, he just wanted an excuse to brag about doing a bunch of pull ups. The fact that the excuse was pure tosh did not disqualify it from being used.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Ppl have spoken

otm

They can call it ilxit

Wexit not on the cards then

George Osborne having a normal one today. "The PM has to keep lying about how good Brexit is, which means he couldn't tell Scotland it's better not leaving, therefore he should just refuse to have a referendum on Scotland because if he loses then the world might notice that England isn't All That and then where would be?"

Sinn Fein took out half-page ads in the New York Times and Washington Post, calling for a referendum on Irish unity pic.twitter.com/vR9ImLnpZa

— Liam (@Hezbolsonaro) March 11, 2021

Would go down well in some quarters...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11028311/Russia-nuke-England-not-harm-Scotland-Wales-say-Putin-propagandists.html