Will there still be a United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in 20 years' time?

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Now that Brexit has finally, properly "happened" -- withdrawal period over, UK government voted on Johnson's deal etc., many political pundits are predicting the end of the UK within a number of years. But how will it actually play out, do you think?

Poll Results

OptionVotes
Irish unification, Scottish independence, England & Wales still in union 35
Scots independence only 14
UK will still exist in its current form in 20 years 10
Irish unification only 3
Irish unification, Scottish independence, Welsh independence 2


Grandpont Genie, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:00 (four years ago)

N. Ireland and Scotland out, Wales in, but mostly cuz I’m an ign’nt American and don’t know anything about welsh sovereignty agitation if it exists

is right unfortunately (silby), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:02 (four years ago)

Option 3, but with Wales angling for some kind of special status due to post-Johnson Tory govt (or Starmer govt, same thing) panicking about the whole shebang falling down around their ears.

josef cake (Matt #2), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:04 (four years ago)

xpost: Silby, it does exist but at far lower levels than the other two. Partly because of the fact that Wales was subjugated by the English far earlier, and partly for the related reason that any English plantation in Wales happened far earlier as a result.

This even had repercussions for the Brexit vote in Wales which, like England, was narrowly pro-leave, but if you do more in-depth analysis you discover the areas voting most strongly for leave were those with the highest English populations or people of English ancestry.

Grandpont Genie, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:09 (four years ago)

Welsh independence LOL

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:10 (four years ago)

I don't know why they would be unhappy with the status quo in Wales, they a Labour majority in the Senedd - what more do they want?!

calzino, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:11 (four years ago)

I suppose it's possible, in a fit of pique, the English might tell the Welsh to piss off.

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:14 (four years ago)

that will be the next referendum

calzino, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:16 (four years ago)

probably fair to say that Longshanks succeeded in brutally hammering all resistance to English rule in Wales in a way he couldn't do in Scotland. I don't see many Welsh independence campaigners, they are probably a minority of either yobbish Cardiff Fans who can't even spell the word or like the bourgie university prof who reluctantly took the young prince Charles under his wing in The Crown!

calzino, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:45 (four years ago)

Irish reunification, independent Scotland, rump fascist state.

scampish inquisition (gyac), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:47 (four years ago)

Voted 3. I wonder if seperatist movements within England will gain traction. Cornwall is obvious one, but wouldn’t be surprised if calls for a seperate state in far north of England or Yorkshire were to start happening.

Dan Worsley, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:52 (four years ago)

I don't see many Welsh independence campaigners

It's barely more than Cornwall (xpost with Dan!) tho I can see Cornish resentment growing once they realise how much they were propped up by the EU. Actually the Welsh might end up forming a union with the Cornish given the shared Celtic heritage and the English folk buying up property in both!

Grandpont Genie, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:53 (four years ago)

Welsh independence LOL

― Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 bookmarkflaglink

You laugh but recent polling is showing a hardened attitude for independence in Wales. Covid to thank for that one.

xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 17:54 (four years ago)

Don't quite see independence for anybody though. Many crises to come in the EU and for capital, plus if the ultras take over we actually have these weapons of mass destruction. Chances of an incident could be pretty high.

Anyway, it's going to be a wild ride.

xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 18:08 (four years ago)

I voted for the second option but it'll be in this order: Scottish independence (in less than 5 years), then Irish unification (in less than 10 years), then Welsh independence (15-20 years).

Being cheap is expensive (snoball), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 18:12 (four years ago)

Looking forward to Wales taking its seat in the United Nations, alongside Vanuatu.

Respectfully Yours, (Aimless), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 19:02 (four years ago)

I imagine Vanuatu has a higher GDP than Wales tbf.

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 19:25 (four years ago)

Heart says option 2 but option 1 is most likely you’re all stuck in hell together.

Boring United Methodist Church (Boring, Maryland), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 19:35 (four years ago)

King Archie will subjugate all rebel states in 2066.

Halfway there but for you, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 19:39 (four years ago)

UK will still exist in its current form in 20 years

||||||||, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 19:40 (four years ago)

Northern Ireland independent but not united

spruce springclean (darraghmac), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 19:41 (four years ago)

Most of Northern Ireland united with Ireland apart from the top right hand corner united with Scotland. And the Isle of Man.

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 19:42 (four years ago)

Went with #3, although it's mostly wishful thinking on my part.

pomenitul, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 20:00 (four years ago)

Scotland becomes independent and later rejoins EU, Irish (re)unification, England & Wales are what's left of UK

Lee626, Wednesday, 30 December 2020 22:06 (four years ago)

Pre-Union of the Crowns then, with added EU membership

josef cake (Matt #2), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 22:09 (four years ago)

Voted irish unification, scottish independence. Though the status quo is maybe more likely

Babby's Yed Revisited (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 22:33 (four years ago)

Tories are never going to allow another scottish independence referendum for a start

Babby's Yed Revisited (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 30 December 2020 22:34 (four years ago)

If the Tories don't allow one then the Scots will hold their own. And if the Westminster government doesn't accept a Yes vote --> UDI.

Grandpont Genie, Thursday, 31 December 2020 16:12 (four years ago)

Worked for Catalonia.

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Thursday, 31 December 2020 16:17 (four years ago)

Misspelt UDA

spruce springclean (darraghmac), Thursday, 31 December 2020 16:38 (four years ago)

If Johnson's still PM he'll most likely do the easiest thing in that moment, which would be to grant a referendum five minutes after saying he'd never do such a thing.

meanwhile back at the song (Matt #2), Thursday, 31 December 2020 16:40 (four years ago)

Federalism in the UK a dark horse option here I guess

is right unfortunately (silby), Thursday, 31 December 2020 16:44 (four years ago)

Northern Ireland independent but not united

i feel like this is some sort of step that will have to happen before a united Ireland yeah

Uptown Top Scamping (Noodle Vague), Thursday, 31 December 2020 16:45 (four years ago)

tbh its a bit groucho marx club quote wisdom but i think that the only way a united ireland could happen in a healthy way would be fifty years after the last person who cares a fig about the ideology of it has died and some young one in a roads office our side asks "why dont we.....?" in 2120 as part of a scoping exercise and her NI counterpart who normally just looks after whatever photocopiers look like at that stage says "sure" in a response and not even a local councillor notices it was done until march the next year

spruce springclean (darraghmac), Thursday, 31 December 2020 17:05 (four years ago)

Most government should be done like this, well away from politicians and certainly interested citizens

spruce springclean (darraghmac), Thursday, 31 December 2020 17:05 (four years ago)

I thought about federalism but can’t really see the route to it now. They fucked the chance to move to it after The Vow and Brexit makes it harder.

stet, Thursday, 31 December 2020 17:10 (four years ago)

PM Wilf the Younger is just not gonna stand for it lads.

nashwan, Thursday, 31 December 2020 17:11 (four years ago)

Northern Ireland independent but not united

Quite a few Loyalists supported this notion back in the day.

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Thursday, 31 December 2020 17:33 (four years ago)

Federalism in the UK a dark horse option here I guess

Not while the Tories are in charge - which is probably for the next 4000 years.

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Thursday, 31 December 2020 17:38 (four years ago)

They'll win the next two elections probably, but after that Jhn Harris will be interviewing 'voted Conservative all my life but not this time' types (who last voted Conservative 20 years ago back in 2015)

anvil, Thursday, 31 December 2020 18:40 (four years ago)

that's not even a joke, it's probably quite prescient. Only they'll voting for Wes Streeting with the grey streaks at this point!

calzino, Thursday, 31 December 2020 18:41 (four years ago)

some young one in a roads office our side asks "why dont we.....?" in 2120 as part of a scoping exercise and her NI counterpart who normally just looks after whatever photocopiers look like at that stage says "sure" in a response and not even a local councillor notices it was done until march the next year

There is some precedent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Berlin_Wall#Misinformed_public_announcements

feels about eels (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, 31 December 2020 19:09 (four years ago)

how long til an independent city-state of london?

shabbat bloody shabbat (voodoo chili), Thursday, 31 December 2020 19:41 (four years ago)

The independent city-state of Canonbury

meanwhile back at the song (Matt #2), Thursday, 31 December 2020 19:54 (four years ago)

If the Tories don't allow one then the Scots will hold their own. And if the Westminster government doesn't accept a Yes vote --> UDI.

― Grandpont Genie, Thursday, December 31, 2020 8:12 AM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is fantasy

Babby's Yed Revisited (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 31 December 2020 20:31 (four years ago)

LOL @ this fucking clown

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18983073.scottish-independence-boris-johnson-rules-new-vote-2055/

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Monday, 4 January 2021 14:13 (four years ago)

How would another ref happen in a few years time?

xyzzzz__, Monday, 4 January 2021 14:20 (four years ago)

Holyrood elections are this year, it's going to be a manifesto committment from the SNP (likely)

stet, Monday, 4 January 2021 14:30 (four years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdSqLfuRN18

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Monday, 4 January 2021 15:07 (four years ago)

Voted Scots independence only.

A Scampo Darkly (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 4 January 2021 15:53 (four years ago)

what is the UK anyway? a multinational state? or a nation state? some kind of crypto-ethnostate, or 1-4 of them? an empire rump state? an english occupation? has this ever been properly established, it all seems contested still & will only get more so I'm sure

I hope the UK comes to an end soon enough but it won't be pretty. more English nationalism is a horrifying prospect (is there any non-negative way to define Englishness, as opposed to Britishness?)

I expect radical change within 20 years, definitely for worse, hopefully some for better too but optimism is hard

Left, Monday, 4 January 2021 18:01 (four years ago)

a loose affiliation of millionaires and billionaires and baby

these are the days of miracle and wonder

cilantro vs. wade (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 4 January 2021 18:04 (four years ago)

Also fully expect Westminster to actually attempt “punishment” deals for Scotland of the kind they tried to portray the EU as giving them

stet, Monday, 4 January 2021 18:05 (four years ago)

The grim reveal of Scotland's strategic and economic utility to the UK will lead to god knows what level of fuckery during the divorce

Uptown Top Scamping (Noodle Vague), Monday, 4 January 2021 18:08 (four years ago)

Could go back to colonial mercantilism

is right unfortunately (silby), Monday, 4 January 2021 20:37 (four years ago)

Have you seen the backup at their ports?

nob lacks, noirish (darraghmac), Monday, 4 January 2021 20:38 (four years ago)

what is the UK anyway?

People have had 300-odd years to work that out and they haven't managed it yet - not that many have ever bothered trying tbf.

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 00:59 (four years ago)

lots of European countries are unitary states that have more or less restive regions that were formerly independent and have a (sub-)national identity and national movements, so we're hardly unique. probably the majority of people in each of its constituent parts have some sort of feeling of britishness still, despite it all - although they're cutting it fine in Scotland, and the occupied 6 are surely a demographic time-bomb (indelicate word-choice) for the ulster scots

Fenners' Pen (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 01:23 (four years ago)

Britishness seems an especially ill-defined concept though.

Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 12:07 (four years ago)

Britishness is "ye were with us when we done it"

nob lacks, noirish (darraghmac), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 12:15 (four years ago)

Britishness seems an especially ill-defined concept though.

― Eggbreak Hotel (Tom D.), Tuesday, January 5, 2021 4:07 AM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I feel like my rejoinder here would be that even when there is a well-defined national identity - scots are industrious, canny, salt of the earth, with a ready wit and an egalitarian spirit, we're aw jock tamson's brains etc. - it's more or less utter bullshit. also I live in Canada, what is the defining feature of a multicultural colonial nation with two completely separate cultures (anglo and franco)

Fenners' Pen (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 18:02 (four years ago)

so it's a common concern, not unique to the uk.

Fenners' Pen (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 18:02 (four years ago)

can't think of many nation states in Europe that don't contain at least one reluctant extra nation, that's true

Uptown Top Scamping (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 18:12 (four years ago)

Murra dhea and even we have Cork

nob lacks, noirish (darraghmac), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 19:05 (four years ago)

Annibyniaeth Cymru nawr!

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 19:32 (four years ago)

Scotland will never leave the UK.

I'm nearly 56. Here's me doing 18 pull ups. I'll guarantee you that none of the SNP's candidates for Holyrood 2021 will be able to do anything similar. How do I know? Because their lives are full of excuses. Everything is someone else's fault. They take responsibility for nothing pic.twitter.com/ZaDvCEGNwJ

— Craig4Pollok (@Craig4P) January 4, 2021

xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 5 January 2021 20:59 (four years ago)

Aw, he just wanted an excuse to brag about doing a bunch of pull ups. The fact that the excuse was pure tosh did not disqualify it from being used.

Respectfully Yours, (Aimless), Tuesday, 5 January 2021 21:23 (four years ago)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Sunday, 17 January 2021 00:01 (four years ago)

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Monday, 18 January 2021 00:01 (four years ago)

Ppl have spoken

spaghetti connemara (darraghmac), Monday, 18 January 2021 00:14 (four years ago)

otm

scampish inquisition (gyac), Monday, 18 January 2021 00:18 (four years ago)

They can call it ilxit

spaghetti connemara (darraghmac), Monday, 18 January 2021 00:22 (four years ago)

Wexit not on the cards then

a degree in bullshit from glasters uni (Matt #2), Monday, 18 January 2021 00:30 (four years ago)

George Osborne having a normal one today. "The PM has to keep lying about how good Brexit is, which means he couldn't tell Scotland it's better not leaving, therefore he should just refuse to have a referendum on Scotland because if he loses then the world might notice that England isn't All That and then where would be?"

stet, Wednesday, 20 January 2021 10:32 (four years ago)

one month passes...

Sinn Fein took out half-page ads in the New York Times and Washington Post, calling for a referendum on Irish unity pic.twitter.com/vR9ImLnpZa

— Liam (@Hezbolsonaro) March 11, 2021

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 12 March 2021 04:37 (four years ago)

one year passes...

Would go down well in some quarters...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11028311/Russia-nuke-England-not-harm-Scotland-Wales-say-Putin-propagandists.html

Tom D: I was in the army (Tom D.), Wednesday, 20 July 2022 09:54 (two years ago)


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