Will there still be a European Union in 20 years' time?

Voted EU will be larger.

Balkan countries will join: Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia.

Possibly, Moldova will join too.

EU will still exist in it's current form, notwithstanding whether one or two countries do a brexit

EU will include Scotland/NI in 20 years

^ both fairly possible options missing imo

i think the EU will exist and will have more member nations in 20 years, whether it will have undergone institutional changes i'm not sure

Think it's likely that it'll be larger, but some current members may exit too. Italy the prime candidate in that respect.

Larger, especially if the alternative is starvation

EU will include Scotland/NI in 20 years

^ both fairly possible options missing imo

― spruce springclean (darraghmac), Thursday, 31 December 2020 bookmarkflaglink

I think this could be included in the "will the EU be larger". I could also have included Wales and/or England as re-joining.

Italy exiting would be a bigger issue that calls into question the viability of the EU? Don't think it can absorb this one like Brexit.

Italy is the next big one, whether it coming after brexit makes it bigger due to momentum/entropy or whether it has an effect as an inherently more "european" nation is what im not sure you're asking?

that's partly why i wonder if the EU won't undergo structural changes rather than risk a rash of states leaving. democratic and financial centralization feel negotiable to an extent?

What changes would be big enough to count as "structural" tho, rly?

Like, will the EU shapeshift in that time, almost certainly, but would they or we agree on what came under such a heading? Unlikely, its not the nature of the beast.

Configuration is the very heart of it, and complexity allows for almost any sequence of instruction/legislation to still come under whatever they wanted to keep calling the same essential project

This is largely beyond my pay grade but looser ties on the tax imperatives, maybe even shenanigans with the euro amongst other stuff? Plus a change in the relative importance of MEPs?

Yeah structural not necessarily the right word but

I don't think Italy will leave the EU btw.

(looks into crustal ball, waves hands over it impressively, intones magisterially...)

The EU will give up on the project of eventually functioning as a United States of Europe and step back toward looser integration of member states in order to reduce friction and keep current members from jumping ship. So, bigger, but much looser.

Italy is the next big one, whether it coming after brexit makes it bigger due to momentum/entropy or whether it has an effect as an inherently more "european" nation is what im not sure you're asking?

― spruce springclean (darraghmac), Thursday, 31 December 2020 bookmarkflaglink

Mainly its because Italy is part of the single currency.

yeah they'd be able to handle their debt accordingly, like Japan do with their own sovereign currency.

Possibly, Moldova will join too.

Not while there's a Pridnestrovie in town

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Feel like "the whole thing explodes" is a bit underpriced here. EU support among voters in Italy and France is tepid at best and it's not too hard to imagine a huge crisis that blows everything up.

Tbf France hates everything, including itself.

Constant whining and denigration of everything certainly played a role in me leaving France a few years back! That and the lead grey skies of Paris...

I bumped up against someone recently who tried to dismiss my claims that the Erasmus thing is a class issue - oh no it isn't they said. Well ok then my experience of growing up with two Irish immi parents, both of whom never went into higher education, and a lot of that upbringing as part of a poor single parent family unit, and me leaving school with fuck all qualifications and my only experience of any after school care was this complete thug trying to threaten and bully me onto a shitty YTS scheme. Yeah of course it isn't a class issue - it's just cos I'm a useless twat who had even heard of it before brexit!

Ok, so a lot of you have faith in the future and in the durability of institutions.

Missed this poll. Would have voted for splitting into a bloc or the whole thing explodes/new world order established. Surprised, like Zelda, by the confidence in the status quo.

why would the continued existence of the EU count as "faith in the future"? strange fbpe sentiment there from xyzz

Dont see any reason to think any other state will leave the EU as they governments wont be daft enough to allow them the choice via referenda. The EU is expansionist. Dont see anything optimistic about this view

why would the continued existence of the EU count as "faith in the future"? strange fbpe sentiment there from xyzz

― Daniel_Rf, Friday, 22 January 2021 bookmarkflaglink

Ok how would you read it?

a resigned sigh at the fact that our current hegemonies are far from dead and unlikely to become any better

like if you made a "will the United States of America still exist in 20 years?" poll I'd vote yes too but I wouldn't view that as a positive

I would read it as more like at a time when so much is under attack, where trust in everything is low, that ppl would say this EU thing will beat that trend to grow...as an act of faith/counter to that.

I wouldn't think to compare to the US. It's been around for much, much longer.

I suppose when you think of it we all see things in different ways too whem you get right down to it eh

That's the beauty of humanity, so many different points of view with no single truth or 'certainty'.

And yet

We must make a choice, in the end

As @GeorgeWParker - brilliant steward of this piece - reported back in January 2020, industries were told they were in "secular decline" - and who could forget @afneil telling @MakeUK_ conference that No.10 thought 3D printing was the answer /8https://t.co/kYX7jOn8n9

— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) January 22, 2021

NORTH vs SOUTH 2.0:

Spain, Greece and Portugal reject the EU call for 15% cuts in natural gas consumption to help Germany

Spanish Energy Minister (clearly aiming at Berlin): "Contrary to other countries, Spain hasn't been living beyond its means in energy terms"#EnergyCrisis

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 21, 2022

Italy will have new elections. The outcome might be shit.

https://twitter.com/davidrkadler/status/1550154527617204225?s=20&t=OKHcL7XF1EisHZigiBHieA

Draghi saved the EU in 2012. He may yet destroy it in 2022.

https://www.ft.com/content/f5fd0ed1-254e-4dee-8959-783a1d3883b4

JUST IN: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is seriously ill with severe pneumonia - Der Spiegel

— BNO News Live (@BNODesk) January 3, 2025