Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

As requested. WmC do you want to close the other thread?

Yair Wallach, who is an Israeli academic at SOAS very much not sympathetic to Likud/Bibi, is a good source on twitter atm, but like all the content out there atm, proceed at your own risk.

He retweeted this video of a young woman from one of the kibbutzes (kibbutzim?) that was attacked earlier:

By far the most powerful Israeli response I have seen.

This 19 year old girl survived the horrific massacre in Kibbutz Be’eri.

This is her message to her fellow Israelis and to the world.

Watch the whole thing.pic.twitter.com/qSPKZX4pzg

— Benzi Sanders (@BenzionSanders) October 14, 2023

Thanks, gyac.

Chotiner and Sari Bashi, the program director at Human Rights Watch:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-humanitarian-catastrophe-in-gaza

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W43C8xhh5E

Sam & Emma interviewing Omar Shakir, Israel & Palestine Director at HRW this morning

looks like David Dayen in there too

Yes, but trying to ask a question of the guest when Sam is in interview mode is a tall order

Why is our political class so invested in suppressing criticism of the apartheid regime? The answer is obvious. Western states support Israel in order to maintain their power at a crucial crossroads of world trade. Challenging that power is impermissible, because any attempt to hold Israel accountable for its crimes is – by definition – an attempt to hold our own states accountable for their involvement in them. Not only are our rulers prepared to let Israel level Gaza; they will even provide it with diplomatic cover and military supplies.

https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/impending-genocide

As noted, I know numerous IRL people with Israeli flag avatars saying that they stand with Israel no matter what.

Plus I know IlXorz and others who almost uniformly condemn Israel as a brutal apartheid state that continues to use "but the Holocaust" as a laminated carte blanche for every atrocity the IDF wishes to commit. (There is a bit of a strawman in there but that's another topic for another time.)

I have met exactly zero people in between. I know it is not about me and/or my feelz. And I don't love "both sides"ing US politics either. The discourse is polarized and will remain so.

Absolutely no-one has talked about this situation at work, there's been no conversation about it at all, maybe people don't talk about it at work in the US either I don't know.

No offence Tom but that was a post I was hoping could be left behind in the old thread

xp, thank you for that gyac, incredibly moving. I also recommend the NYTimes Daily from today on the situation on the ground in gaza from the perspective of people caught in it, difficult listening:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/podcasts/the-daily/gaza-israel.html

(the ep labeled "Voices from Gaza")

I’m just going to say that I am not in-between on this issue, but that should be obvious by now.

xp I know people are all about bearing witness but I find this stuff incredibly upsetting.

I don’t think it was mentioned but Humza Yousuf who is Scotland’s first minister has family trapped in Gaza. I am linking this video as I find this content extremely upsetting.

Bernard's mother and family went out of their way to tell me that they would be praying for my family in Gaza. We hugged, we cried, and we promised to re-dedicate ourselves to peace and to be unequivocal; no innocent man, woman, or child should pay the price of another's actions. https://t.co/Vv1fz9gXqJ

— Humza Yousaf (@HumzaYousaf) October 13, 2023

Also, for context on the Kibbutz Be'eri post and those less familiar with the situation of the past 15-20 years (and again disclaimer I am hardly an expert myself): from Ariel Sharon onward, Israeli policy has been increasingly tilted toward a phony sort of "disengagement." In my mind, it traces back to the building of the West Bank wall although that could be simplistic take. But Netanyahu has turbo-charged this idea, basically that Israel could just kind of ignore the territories (at least other than soldiers stationed in the West Bank) rather than engage in any more ongoing negotiations, that the West Bank could continue to develop economically even without full agency or freedom, and that Gaza would be the kind of counterexample (i.e. life would be worse than in the West Bank) as long as Hamas was there. That terrorism could simply be prevented or minimized through "security," the settlements in the West Bank could continue quietly, and most Israelis would just live their lives and not worry.

Netanyahu is also notoriously corrupt and venal, and he has maintained power through a coalition with right-wing settler and religious parties, giving both more power (which also angers the more secular wings of Israeli politics as Israel gradually takes on additional trappings of theocracy, though it is hardly a full theocracy).

Netanyahu also favors his voters. The kibbutzes near Gaza tend actually to be center-liberal to left. They are not Netanyahu voters. There is a strong sense that Netanyahu "neglected" these areas as the girl expressed in her video, and that is also reflected in the sense that he neglected security near the Gaza border. I genuinely do not know whether Netanyahu "allowed" the attack but I seriously doubt it for reasons I stated in the prior thread. I think this was more hubris and stupidity and myopia.

"I don’t think it was mentioned but Humza Yousuf who is Scotland’s first minister has family trapped in Gaza. I am linking this video as I find this content extremely upsetting."

Mentioned this in the last Israel thread.

You can count on one hand the number of European leaders who have talked about Palestinians as human beings

And they’re all backpedaling now given protests and public pushback.

The President of the University of Pennsylvania has released her 3rd or 4th public statement apologizing for letting a Palestinian writers conference take place last month

The President of the University of Pennsylvania has released her 3rd or 4th public statement apologizing for letting a Palestinian writers conference take place last month

people are so fucking gross

Public statements issued by university presidents are generally tailored to a narrow and specific segment of the public, mainly anyone with influence over university revenues or endowments. They are paid to know how to read that room.

Aimless, we know. No offense.

Well, yeah. When you've got Dick Wolf threatening your donations because you let Palestinians into a building named after him...

a name like Dick Wolf must never be besmirched

Always guarantee the BBC will always be fucked.

The BBC admits that it misled the public about pro-Palestinian demonstrations in the UK. pic.twitter.com/oi4nVf5DN7

— Lowkey (@Lowkey0nline) October 16, 2023

i think about this poem by Palestinian poet Najwan Darwish all the time pic.twitter.com/jv5WOOjobb

— هستی hasti (@youarehasti) October 16, 2023

xp - That retraction was also poorly phrased and could be misleading.

This is @GhassanAbuSitt1, a surgeon who is currently saving the lives of Palestinians in a hospital in Gaza. He's just reported that counter terrorism police have showed up at his house in the UK and harrased his family.pic.twitter.com/GOvl5aQLHG https://t.co/bugmmZPAMM

— Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) October 16, 2023

That retraction was also poorly phrased and could be misleading.

glad i'm not the only one who thought this

OTM

I know this is old news, but it still blows my mind that the range of Acceptable Opinions on Israel is narrower in the West than it is in Israel.

That Darwish poem is great. Notable that Armenians were just cleansed from Artsakh by Azerbaijan and absolutely no-one in the west cared.

Yup. Armenia could be invaded in the next few weeks btw.

xxp two words: Social Media.

Nuanced discussions are often lacking in the echo chambers of social media and the 24 hour news cycle. The only place where I've seen nuanced discussions about the topic are on platforms that favor more nuanced discussion, such as ILX and (yes, believe it or not) Reddit.

I do wonder if the "outrage economy" of clickbait extremism online and the 24 hours news cycle will finally hit a limit of societal acceptability in western democracies, but I'm not holding my breath, they still make $$$

"We called a pro-palestinian march pro-Hamas. We accept that this was a thing that we said". WTF.

Now here's the weather.

True, I understand in theory how misinformation supposedly works. But I'm finding it extremely challenging to trust some of the news sources being cited and finding myself turning to reddit, and other news sources that I don't normally consult trying to see what areas of dispute exist over even just the factual reporting.

xp

Interestingly enough, a private forum I participate in is completely avoiding talking about this, and honestly it might be for the best.

The ukpolitics sub is overall fanatically pro-occupation and pro-genocide, and they are gradually losing their shit as they observe the public becoming turned off by this stance. Also they are usually witheringly critical of the Tories but have suddenly become staunchly supportive of Sunak and Braverman.

Are you taking about Reddit or something

I have met exactly zero people in between.

To the extent I've talked to people about this, almost everybody I know IRL is "in between" the two positions you describe.

Reddit is a paragon of “nuanced discussion” now. We are truly fucked.

Actually was just thinking about this specific issue in non-Reddit terms which still definitely apply to Reddit. How this conflict is a godsend for the extreme right (and whatever apologists they may have claiming to be “leftist”). Because it so thoroughly divides actual leftists from liberals steeped in realpolitik or whatever they’re on.

a name like Dick Wolf must never be besmirched

There's nothing decent to besmirch. The Law & Order "franchise" is a formulaic, sensationalist pile of shit. All 1,316 episodes of it.

Also pretty depressing how my social media feed was blissfully Ben Shapiro-free until various people decided his thick-headed, one-dimensional take on the Middle East was the voice of reason this past week.

xxp two words: Social Media.

Nuanced discussions are often lacking in the echo chambers of social media and the 24 hour news cycle. The only place where I've seen nuanced discussions about the topic are on platforms that favor more nuanced discussion, such as 4chan and (yes, believe it or not) Stormfront.

We get it. You don't like Reddit.

I don’t like social media illiterates upholding a literal right wing extremist-captured disinformation service as their go-to for balanced discussion.

lol what

Lol hey i wasnt even posting here viborg

Yes, the famously extremist platform, reddit

Extremely milquetoast maybe

Iran needs nuclear weapons, is my conclusion

have the fates of saddam/muammar/kim jong-* taught people nothing

Looks like Iran kept going through much of the night. First time Israel has tasted any of its own medicine.

Its all v, v grim (Grim is the one word I know now, for everything)

Iran confirms limited damage at Fordow nuclear site, atomic body says
Iran confirmed that its Fordow nuclear facility sustained limited damage after recent attacks, the semi-official ISNA news agency reported on Saturday, citing a spokesperson for the country’s atomic energy organisation.

“There has been limited damage to some areas at the Fordow enrichment site,” state atomic energy agency spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi said, reports Reuters.

“We had already moved a significant part of the equipment and materials out, and there was no extensive damage and there are no contamination concerns.”

Here's a good recap of the risks

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74n23y1x48o

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/in-twist-u-s-diplomacy-served-as-cover-for-israeli-surprise-attack-c79b2206?st=g1cPdd&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

In Twist, U.S. Diplomacy Served as Cover for Israeli Surprise Attack
Talks seen as a way to keep the peace gave Israel the opportunity to land heavy military blows

https://www.972mag.com/gaza-expulsion-aid-delivery/

The planned expulsion of Gaza’s population is already underway

Israel is conditioning aid delivery to force Gazans south into ‘concentration zones.’ This scheme has begun to stall, but that only portends greater brutality.

...

The recurring massacres of Palestinians rushing to food distribution centers, with at least 245 Palestinians killed in the past two weeks, have shocked many. But these incidents should not distract us from the structural change: instead of hundreds of food distribution centers operating across the Gaza Strip by experienced international organizations, Israel set up only four centers for over two million people. That is not how to meet the needs of a population after many months of devastation and deprivation. It’s how you starve and strip survivors of their human dignity.

The location of the four centers is no less important. One is in the central part of the Strip along the Netzarim Corridor, and three in the south, west of Rafah. A quick look at the map is enough to understand: there is no connection between the locations of the “distribution centers” and the needs of the people.

Instead, the goal is to promote “moving the population” southward, ideally into the “concentration zones.” Since this constitutes a crime against humanity, Israel employed concealment tactics: first expelling established aid groups that could provide aid efficiently, then outsourcing distribution to opaque entities like the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

As early as May 11, Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly stated in a secret session of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that “receiving aid would be conditional on Gazans not returning to the places from which they came to the aid distribution sites.” This policy’s underlying logic was confirmed by Dr. Tammy Caner, a lawyer and director of the Law and National Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a think tank with close ties with the Israeli military.

Indeed, the recent and sudden U-turn by Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich — who went from vehemently opposing any aid to “Arabs” to endorsing it so “that the world does not stop us and accuse us of war crimes” — should also be understood as an endorsement of Netanyahu’s scheme to use food distribution to extort Gazans into “consenting” to their displacement.

Dr. Caner also confirmed that according to most experts, if Israel’s stated concern is Hamas seizing aid supplies, the logical solution would be flooding Gaza with abundant provisions in order to eliminate any single group’s ability to monopolize resources. But in fact, monopoly is precisely the point: Israel wants it for itself, to wield it as leverage against the civilian population. Starvation and distribution under the occupier’s conditions are two complementary methods of using food as a weapon.

Tweet of the day, they know what they did and still doing pic.twitter.com/kkp6wn8zvH

— Furkan Gözükara (@GozukaraFurkan) June 15, 2025

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/in-twist-u-s-diplomacy-served-as-cover-for-israeli-surprise-attack-c79b2206?st=g1cPdd&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

In Twist, U.S. Diplomacy Served as Cover for Israeli Surprise Attack
Talks seen as a way to keep the peace gave Israel the opportunity to land heavy military blows

― rob, Saturday, 14 June 2025 bookmarkflaglink

I think you could also read this as Iran's failure (one of perhaps many), too.

A threadapp with a digest of the events of the past few months.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1934147537306288218.html

xp true, getting played by donald trump in 2025 is pretty embarrassing, and hand-wringing over the US having lots its intl credibility over this is probably missing the larger point in multiple ways

Is this the only thread for Israel/Iran? Surprised how little talk there has been here. Good to keep in mind that there is one country in this conflict who has

- Has nukes
- Refused to allow IAEA inspectors in to their nuclear sites
- Won't publicly acknowledge their nuclear program at all
- Has not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

..and that country is not Iran

Yes but only democracy in the Middle East etc *hollow laugh*

"Is this the only thread for Israel/Iran?"

Only one I can see.

Would say Iran's fall would be a catastrophe for Palestine and the middle east, and ultimately the world. We have all seen what has befallen Libya and what's happenung with Syria rn...the bombardments in Lebanon etc.

must say the CaspianReport youtube video from 5 months ago seemed to forecast all of this v accurately

I wouldn’t entirely bet against Iran.

The IDF just bombed Iran's state TV studio while it was live on air. pic.twitter.com/J9oMkHP6MK

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) June 16, 2025

the hubris of the Netanyahu government far exceeds the hubris of the Bush-Cheney war in Iraq and we all know how well that turned out.

Well they're getting away with it, so no reason for them to stop.

I guess a new thread is warranted but I also don't know what to say about this. How many times does "well that's a textbook war crime" need to be said before it means nothing

Making my way through this piece on working class history and struggle in Iran, from a few months ago

https://illwill.com/iran

xp
tbf to Israel, I'm not sure if "cutting off food supplies, luring starving people to aid centers, then massacring them" (another 36 today) is in the war crimes textbook yet, that's pretty innovative

Oh there’s a historical parallel…

War crimes are not adequate for what has been happening, its just convenient shorthand.

xp
I know the Nazis used starvation and food control as a weapon in various ways across different contexts, but did they specifically do this bait & kill scenario? I wouldn't be surprised of course

War crimes are not adequate for what has been happening, its just convenient shorthand.

― xyzzzz__, Monday, June 16, 2025 1:28 PM (five minutes ago)

I agree. but bombing a TV station and then openly saying "yep we did it" literally could be used to explain the concept of a war crime

So Trump goes on social media and says everyone should evacuate Tehran...

Israel has already made the same announcement
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/16/iran-threatens-to-leave-nuclear-weapons-treaty-as-israeli-bombing-enters-fourth-day

*had

is it time for a war on Iran thread

Never has it been clearer that “no one is free until Palestine is free” is not a chant but a warning, as we all stare into the abyss of another world war.

— Heba Gowayed هبة جويد (@hebagowayed) June 17, 2025

Nothing I have ever studied or taught has prepared me for this phase. When a sitting U.S. president publicly threatens a civilian capital with annihilation on social media, turning genocidal language into official communication, IR’s clean theories of calibrated violence and…

— Amal Saad (@amalsaad_lb) June 17, 2025

of course right on cue putin bombs kyiv some more and nobody even notices

Israel-Iran war in 2025

"The Israeli government continues to claim that it's defending 'all its citizens.' But Arab towns are still last in line for basic services extended to other citizens, if they're in line at all. We've lived through 16 years of Hezbollah missiles, multiple Gaza wars, and now, the Iranian retaliation, and somehow the state has yet to install real shelters in most of our communities. And yet, you won't hear loud protests. Even after the deaths in Tamra, there were no fiery op-eds, no viral hashtags nor mass mobilization. In part, that's because we – Palestinian citizens – live in the overlap of two unbearable realities: the danger we face here, and the devastation we witness in Gaza" – Nagham Zbeedat

From Haaretz

https://archive.ph/VNsta

"As for how he’s managed to pull off this remarkable government takeover with virtually no meaningful opposition, Smotrich has always understood the origin of the current propelling him. “I believe that the yearning of generations for this land, and the confidence in our ultimate return thereto, are the most profound driving forces of the progression of the Return to Zion which led to the establishment of the State of Israel,” he wrote in the 2017 plan. On the inconvenient reality of the land’s current inhabitants, he added, “The statement that the Arab yearning for national expression in the Land of Israel cannot be ‘repressed’ is incorrect. It worked fine for the State of Israel, and it needs to work in the same way for Judea and Samaria."

“it worked fine” 🤮

I hope it doesn’t need to be said, least of all to Americans living under Trump and his horror show of cabinet members and other spokespeople, but Smotrich does not speak for all Israelis nor do all Israelis believe there is a cosmic “profound driving force” on the side of their government

What Israelis believe isn't the issue. The UK have been supporting this too; the sanctions imposed last week were a piece of theater.

Israelis convincingly voted for Likud in 2022, knowing that Smotrich and his party would be prominent in any coalition. Smotrich's party was the third largest on its own.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/17/not-for-you-israeli-shelters-exclude-palestinians-as-bombs-rain-down

The NYT with uh very helpful analysis:

The Israeli military campaign has weakened Iran, but it has not yet destroyed the country’s nuclear program or collapsed its government, and it may still fall short of both. The war could also devolve into an intractable quagmire with no exit strategy or offramp.

… “One wonders whether effective military performance is matched by a sober political vision,” said Nimrod Novik, a former senior Israeli official and a fellow at Israel Policy Forum, a research group in New York. “Or, like in Gaza, we are left without an endgame. Time will tell.”

lol “one wonders”

https://www.jns.org/chief-israel-planner-at-pentagon-bashes-jewish-state-publicly-extensively/

Shame these views can't form the basis of policy

Well he didn't last long.

https://www.jns.org/pentagon-removing-israel-planner-from-joint-staff-launching-probe-after-jns-scoop/

Israel now using tanks to kill people trying to get flour: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/17/israeli-soldiers-shoot-dozens-in-latest-massacre-at-gaza-aid-sites

For those who read these accounts (instead of going on about how its from twitter) may have noted Amal has been quiet for quite a while and only reposting.

Here she puts together her thinking on a future where Iran is defeated, but how the fight would go on and what potential shape it would take.

https://twitter.com/amalsaad_lb/status/1935406075479773570?s=19

Lol, deleted. Basically, things will get worse.

Its been slightly rewritten

THREAD: What would happen if Iran collapses as a state?
Unlike previous regime change wars that targeted individual states, what's happening now aims to eliminate the ideological and material infrastructure of resistance across the entire region. As a project rooted in a…

— Amal Saad (@amalsaad_lb) June 18, 2025

This thread is along similar lines

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1935461018676740510.html

More horrific footage from the Israeli settler pogrom against the Christian village of Taybeh, Ramallah, in the West Bank, where settlers set houses and vehicles on fire. pic.twitter.com/97xW3epLEf

— Ihab Hassan (@IhabHassane) June 25, 2025

here's a big Haaretz piece on the food distribution killings; there have been 549 Palestinians killed in the month since the GHF started distributing aid: https://archive.ph/ilyEU

"It's a killing field," one soldier said. "Where I was stationed, between one and five people were killed every day. They're treated like a hostile force – no crowd-control measures, no tear gas – just live fire with everything imaginable: heavy machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars. Then, once the center opens, the shooting stops, and they know they can approach. Our form of communication is gunfire."

The soldier added, "We open fire early in the morning if someone tries to get in line from a few hundred meters away, and sometimes we just charge at them from close range. But there's no danger to the forces." According to him, "I'm not aware of a single instance of return fire. There's no enemy, no weapons." He also said the activity in his area of service is referred to as Operation Salted Fish – the name of the Israeli version of the children's game "Red light, green light".