Israel, Palestine & the Levant rolling events: Oct 23 on

As requested. WmC do you want to close the other thread?

Yair Wallach, who is an Israeli academic at SOAS very much not sympathetic to Likud/Bibi, is a good source on twitter atm, but like all the content out there atm, proceed at your own risk.

He retweeted this video of a young woman from one of the kibbutzes (kibbutzim?) that was attacked earlier:

By far the most powerful Israeli response I have seen.

This 19 year old girl survived the horrific massacre in Kibbutz Be’eri.

This is her message to her fellow Israelis and to the world.

Watch the whole thing.pic.twitter.com/qSPKZX4pzg

— Benzi Sanders (@BenzionSanders) October 14, 2023

Thanks, gyac.

Chotiner and Sari Bashi, the program director at Human Rights Watch:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-humanitarian-catastrophe-in-gaza

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W43C8xhh5E

Sam & Emma interviewing Omar Shakir, Israel & Palestine Director at HRW this morning

looks like David Dayen in there too

Yes, but trying to ask a question of the guest when Sam is in interview mode is a tall order

Why is our political class so invested in suppressing criticism of the apartheid regime? The answer is obvious. Western states support Israel in order to maintain their power at a crucial crossroads of world trade. Challenging that power is impermissible, because any attempt to hold Israel accountable for its crimes is – by definition – an attempt to hold our own states accountable for their involvement in them. Not only are our rulers prepared to let Israel level Gaza; they will even provide it with diplomatic cover and military supplies.

https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/impending-genocide

As noted, I know numerous IRL people with Israeli flag avatars saying that they stand with Israel no matter what.

Plus I know IlXorz and others who almost uniformly condemn Israel as a brutal apartheid state that continues to use "but the Holocaust" as a laminated carte blanche for every atrocity the IDF wishes to commit. (There is a bit of a strawman in there but that's another topic for another time.)

I have met exactly zero people in between. I know it is not about me and/or my feelz. And I don't love "both sides"ing US politics either. The discourse is polarized and will remain so.

Absolutely no-one has talked about this situation at work, there's been no conversation about it at all, maybe people don't talk about it at work in the US either I don't know.

No offence Tom but that was a post I was hoping could be left behind in the old thread

xp, thank you for that gyac, incredibly moving. I also recommend the NYTimes Daily from today on the situation on the ground in gaza from the perspective of people caught in it, difficult listening:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/podcasts/the-daily/gaza-israel.html

(the ep labeled "Voices from Gaza")

I’m just going to say that I am not in-between on this issue, but that should be obvious by now.

xp I know people are all about bearing witness but I find this stuff incredibly upsetting.

I don’t think it was mentioned but Humza Yousuf who is Scotland’s first minister has family trapped in Gaza. I am linking this video as I find this content extremely upsetting.

Bernard's mother and family went out of their way to tell me that they would be praying for my family in Gaza. We hugged, we cried, and we promised to re-dedicate ourselves to peace and to be unequivocal; no innocent man, woman, or child should pay the price of another's actions. https://t.co/Vv1fz9gXqJ

— Humza Yousaf (@HumzaYousaf) October 13, 2023

Also, for context on the Kibbutz Be'eri post and those less familiar with the situation of the past 15-20 years (and again disclaimer I am hardly an expert myself): from Ariel Sharon onward, Israeli policy has been increasingly tilted toward a phony sort of "disengagement." In my mind, it traces back to the building of the West Bank wall although that could be simplistic take. But Netanyahu has turbo-charged this idea, basically that Israel could just kind of ignore the territories (at least other than soldiers stationed in the West Bank) rather than engage in any more ongoing negotiations, that the West Bank could continue to develop economically even without full agency or freedom, and that Gaza would be the kind of counterexample (i.e. life would be worse than in the West Bank) as long as Hamas was there. That terrorism could simply be prevented or minimized through "security," the settlements in the West Bank could continue quietly, and most Israelis would just live their lives and not worry.

Netanyahu is also notoriously corrupt and venal, and he has maintained power through a coalition with right-wing settler and religious parties, giving both more power (which also angers the more secular wings of Israeli politics as Israel gradually takes on additional trappings of theocracy, though it is hardly a full theocracy).

Netanyahu also favors his voters. The kibbutzes near Gaza tend actually to be center-liberal to left. They are not Netanyahu voters. There is a strong sense that Netanyahu "neglected" these areas as the girl expressed in her video, and that is also reflected in the sense that he neglected security near the Gaza border. I genuinely do not know whether Netanyahu "allowed" the attack but I seriously doubt it for reasons I stated in the prior thread. I think this was more hubris and stupidity and myopia.

"I don’t think it was mentioned but Humza Yousuf who is Scotland’s first minister has family trapped in Gaza. I am linking this video as I find this content extremely upsetting."

Mentioned this in the last Israel thread.

You can count on one hand the number of European leaders who have talked about Palestinians as human beings

And they’re all backpedaling now given protests and public pushback.

The President of the University of Pennsylvania has released her 3rd or 4th public statement apologizing for letting a Palestinian writers conference take place last month

The President of the University of Pennsylvania has released her 3rd or 4th public statement apologizing for letting a Palestinian writers conference take place last month

people are so fucking gross

Public statements issued by university presidents are generally tailored to a narrow and specific segment of the public, mainly anyone with influence over university revenues or endowments. They are paid to know how to read that room.

Aimless, we know. No offense.

Well, yeah. When you've got Dick Wolf threatening your donations because you let Palestinians into a building named after him...

a name like Dick Wolf must never be besmirched

Always guarantee the BBC will always be fucked.

The BBC admits that it misled the public about pro-Palestinian demonstrations in the UK. pic.twitter.com/oi4nVf5DN7

— Lowkey (@Lowkey0nline) October 16, 2023

i think about this poem by Palestinian poet Najwan Darwish all the time pic.twitter.com/jv5WOOjobb

— هستی hasti (@youarehasti) October 16, 2023

xp - That retraction was also poorly phrased and could be misleading.

This is @GhassanAbuSitt1, a surgeon who is currently saving the lives of Palestinians in a hospital in Gaza. He's just reported that counter terrorism police have showed up at his house in the UK and harrased his family.pic.twitter.com/GOvl5aQLHG https://t.co/bugmmZPAMM

— Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) October 16, 2023

That retraction was also poorly phrased and could be misleading.

glad i'm not the only one who thought this

OTM

I know this is old news, but it still blows my mind that the range of Acceptable Opinions on Israel is narrower in the West than it is in Israel.

That Darwish poem is great. Notable that Armenians were just cleansed from Artsakh by Azerbaijan and absolutely no-one in the west cared.

Yup. Armenia could be invaded in the next few weeks btw.

xxp two words: Social Media.

Nuanced discussions are often lacking in the echo chambers of social media and the 24 hour news cycle. The only place where I've seen nuanced discussions about the topic are on platforms that favor more nuanced discussion, such as ILX and (yes, believe it or not) Reddit.

I do wonder if the "outrage economy" of clickbait extremism online and the 24 hours news cycle will finally hit a limit of societal acceptability in western democracies, but I'm not holding my breath, they still make $$$

"We called a pro-palestinian march pro-Hamas. We accept that this was a thing that we said". WTF.

Now here's the weather.

True, I understand in theory how misinformation supposedly works. But I'm finding it extremely challenging to trust some of the news sources being cited and finding myself turning to reddit, and other news sources that I don't normally consult trying to see what areas of dispute exist over even just the factual reporting.

xp

Interestingly enough, a private forum I participate in is completely avoiding talking about this, and honestly it might be for the best.

The ukpolitics sub is overall fanatically pro-occupation and pro-genocide, and they are gradually losing their shit as they observe the public becoming turned off by this stance. Also they are usually witheringly critical of the Tories but have suddenly become staunchly supportive of Sunak and Braverman.

Are you taking about Reddit or something

I have met exactly zero people in between.

To the extent I've talked to people about this, almost everybody I know IRL is "in between" the two positions you describe.

Reddit is a paragon of “nuanced discussion” now. We are truly fucked.

Actually was just thinking about this specific issue in non-Reddit terms which still definitely apply to Reddit. How this conflict is a godsend for the extreme right (and whatever apologists they may have claiming to be “leftist”). Because it so thoroughly divides actual leftists from liberals steeped in realpolitik or whatever they’re on.

a name like Dick Wolf must never be besmirched

There's nothing decent to besmirch. The Law & Order "franchise" is a formulaic, sensationalist pile of shit. All 1,316 episodes of it.

Also pretty depressing how my social media feed was blissfully Ben Shapiro-free until various people decided his thick-headed, one-dimensional take on the Middle East was the voice of reason this past week.

xxp two words: Social Media.

Nuanced discussions are often lacking in the echo chambers of social media and the 24 hour news cycle. The only place where I've seen nuanced discussions about the topic are on platforms that favor more nuanced discussion, such as 4chan and (yes, believe it or not) Stormfront.

We get it. You don't like Reddit.

I don’t like social media illiterates upholding a literal right wing extremist-captured disinformation service as their go-to for balanced discussion.

lol what

Lol hey i wasnt even posting here viborg

Yes, the famously extremist platform, reddit

Extremely milquetoast maybe

Rafah is v much going too happen.

BREAKING: Netanyahu told Blinken during their meeting today he won't accept a deal that will include ending the war. He said if Hamas doesn't drop this demand there will be no deal and Israel will invade Rafah, per Israeli and U.S. officials

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 1, 2024

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/gaza-period-product-women-use-birth-control-to-skip-menstruation-1.7179069

Israel briefs US on plan to move Gazans ahead of Rafah invasion
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/03/israel-gazans-rafah-invasion-00156024

Don't do it, says former PM Ehud Olmert in Ha'aretz (sorry, this is paywalled, but the headline gives the gist)

https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-05-03/ty-article-opinion/.premium/israelis-must-flood-the-streets-to-keep-the-idf-out-of-rafah/0000018f-3aac-d516-afbf-feeea9ff0000

(Olmert is no left-winger.)

Ben Dror Yemini, writing in Yediot Aharonot, firmly from the right, says too that Israel can't go into Rafah now, arguing that Israel can't afford the worldwide condemnation that would follow the inevitable destruction there. (sorry, this is in Hebrew, but Google Translate will gist you.)

https://www.ynet.co.il/yedioth/article/yokra13898333#!/replace

I was listening to the relatively centrist Israel Policy Pod and they also seemed to think that it's probably time to just wrap up operations in exchange for the hostages and go home. Hard to say whether Bibi really wants to go in or is just holding it as a threat.

TBH I don't really understand the emphasis by the Israeli right on Rafah, as though it's some final boss of Hamas. What do they think they will finally achieve? A "we got him" moment with Sinwar or Daif? I mean that's probably the answer, but I doubt that achieves much other than a PR moment - red meat for the base.

Does anyone feel like they understand what's happening with the ceasefire deal? I'm p confused by what I'm reading

I'm confused too. To some extent it's inevitable: every actor (not just Israel and Hamas but the US and Qatar too) has incentive to leak assertions which they think will push the information environment their way, and which may not reflect reality. We are not going to know what's happening for sure until god willing the bombs stop falling and the hostages start coming home.

otm

a negotiated cease-fire agreement will mean the conflict hasn't ended in surrender by Hamas. Netanyahu made the complete defeat and abolition of Hamas the centerpiece of his rhetoric since day one. He now sees he can't follow through on that without the world dropping a hammer on Israel (and on him). All sides are jockeying like crazy to figure out how to craft the details to make the outcome appear to their own constituency in the most favorable light.

I don't understand it either, but one thing I have learned is that it's almost impossible to understand exactly what's going on in negotiations even as a party, so trying to figure it out from third party news outlets is always fraught.

yeah that makes sense, thanks all. Given the bleak state of the famine in the north and the (related) difficulty of imagining what's going on with the hostages, I'd like to be hopeful but just have to wait and see

Any truce Israel will accept will have to include Hamas out of power, at a minimum. I’m sure they’d demand the surrender of Hamas leaders. Those by themselves are going to be hard to get agreement to, but it’s hard to imagine not just the Israeli govt but the Israeli population accepting anything less.

All sides are jockeying like crazy to figure out how to craft the details to make the outcome appear to their own constituency in the most favorable light.

Which ... is good! If the killing stops and the aid comes through unimpeded and the hostages come home I couldn't give less of a half of a shit about who "gets to say they won." Let everybody say it, if that's what it takes.

I feel the same. But we aren't the ones at the table. Their priorities and calculations are not the same as ours.

Al Jazeera banned from Israel. Valedictory statement prerecorded by an old friend of mine:

https://x.com/ajenglish/status/1787116285912096811?s=46&t=Xety4ZUudTBKt4dxOZMmDw

that’s… not great news

This ban does nothing to protect the people of the state of Israel, but it does conveniently help to protect the current government of the state of Israel.

Depressed, I once again fell for optimistic reports that made a ceasefire sound hours away. The reporting is really weird. Do we just ... not *know* what's in the deal Hamas is rejecting?

If the negotiations are at a delicate stage then if any side leaks details it will probably be apparent who did it and may blow things up. But, really who knows?

This is going to be an unimaginable nightmare. The furtherance and culmination of a Genocide can be stopped and our government has the power to stop it. Their blood will be on all of our hands, but our leaders most of all. https://t.co/jjZ4jK5doG

— Nathan ' FOIA' Tankus (@NathanTankus) May 6, 2024

Depressed, I once again fell for optimistic reports that made a ceasefire sound hours away. The reporting is really weird. Do we just ... not *know* what's in the deal Hamas is rejecting?

There was never going to be a deal. The negotiations always look like outrage management.

RAFAH NOW pic.twitter.com/qyhaC7XbkF

— Muhammad Smiry 🇵🇸 (@MuhammadSmiry) May 6, 2024

BBC:

Hamas official says 'ball in Israel's court'
Hamas official says 'ball now in Israel's court' after group has indicated it would accept the terms of a ceasefire plan.

In a statement published on its official website, Hamas says its leader Ismail Haniyeh conducted a telephone call with the prime minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and with the Egyptian intelligence minister, Abbas Kamel, and informed them of Hamas's approval of their proposal regarding a ceasefire agreement

Apparently Hamas approved a 'softened' version that is not acceptable to Israel - mainly over the duration of the ceasefire? I dunno

Israeli officials do not sound like they are going to accept the ceasefire proposal that Hamas has accepted.https://t.co/9WFlbk8UCj

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) May 6, 2024

Other reports say Israel are considering it

There's zero downside for Israel in accepting a ceasefire that "permanently ends" the war because that permanent end only lasts until Sinwar violates the ceasefire, unless he doesn't, in which case -- great! But there is a downside *for Netanyahu* and that is the problem.

Yeah, Bibi's right flank will accept nothing less than complete annihilation

I mean Hamas also just fired a bunch of rockets at Israel in between it leaking that they accepted and them officially saying they accepted, so who the fuck knows. I feel like praying for it to be accepted. I think eephus is probably OTM.

The state of things right now, both from @haaretzcom:

Israeli sources: the deal isn't what we agreed to at all, it's a ploy

Foreign diplomatic sources: the deal is basically the same one Israel agreed to, the ball is in Netanyahu's court pic.twitter.com/SBcUnneBZC

— Gregg Carlstrom (@glcarlstrom) May 6, 2024

“we don’t believe them and want to kill them all so we will say they are liars and antisemites” is pretty much Israel’s modus operandi

"I mean Hamas also just fired a bunch of rockets at Israel in between it leaking that they accepted and them officially saying they accepted"

Here is another excuse for you.

An Egyptian official tells @Alhadath_Brk that Hamas attack on Kerem Shalom on Sunday that killed several IDF soldiers sabotaged the hostage deal talks https://t.co/nggj9fs6Q1

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 6, 2024

Israel strikes targets in eastern Rafah as Netanyahu says deal Hamas accepted is "far from meeting demands"
Follow live https://t.co/ubVMztT6rV

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) May 6, 2024

Netanyahu knows this deal is what Israel needs and what Israelis want — show some spine and if it means the Kahanists bring down your government so be it.

If true and successful, this will allow Israel to have total control on the border with Egypt, facilitate the expulsion of Palestinians and the ground reoccupation and recolonisation of Gaza. pic.twitter.com/QbovSxxMJb

— Nicola Perugini (@PeruginiNic) May 6, 2024

I don’t think that’s accurate. Israel only took control of the Palestinian side of the crossing. That doesn’t give them the ability to expel people without cooperation from Egypt.

Time will, in the end, tell

Interesting thread from Amal on where we go from here.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1787873390805582099.html

Israel demolishes dozens of homes of its Bedouin citizens in the southern part of the state ('Negev'), where they have been part of the landscape for centuries or more. This has been going on extensively since 1948.

Ethnic cleansing of Arabs is going on inside internationally… https://t.co/XO0ZFNpenP

— Alon Mizrahi I without equality there's no freedom (@alon_mizrahi) May 8, 2024

Good god pic.twitter.com/DFMqDaLtNa

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) May 14, 2024

Raids appear to be targeting monetary exchanges by arresting owners and breaking into buildings. Cannot help but feel connected to the moves Israeli officials announced earlier today about forcing the collapse of the Palestinian Authority by depriving it of funds. https://t.co/fE2868xro6

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) May 15, 2024

Lucidly detailing an endlessly bleak view, so much I didn't know (worth it despite the chill)--hope he's wrong about some of this worth reading transcript because while listening I tend to think about something I hear and miss subsequent point:
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/15/1251546031/gaza-will-be-one-big-displacement-camp-for-the-foreseeable-future-journalist-say

Thanks, listened to it this AM. Extremely depressing, although kind of reinforcing what I already knew. I think I said something in the other thread shortly after Oct 7 about how I didn't get the sense there was any plan. I'm not even sure what a plan could look like.

I also just recently listened to this: https://tlv1.fm/the-tel-aviv-review/2024/05/13/israel-hamas-war-7-months-on/ and it crystalized some things for me about the situation and Bibi. In particular there is a portion I'm having trouble copying and pasting, but the gist is that the guest says that while he does not normally like to ascribe too much to individual leaders, that Bibi can really be said to have made it his entire life project to ensure that no Palestinian state is ever created, from very early in his political career, whereas even other Likud leaders at the time often grudgingly believed that a two-state solution would have to be reached.

I realized that Bibi is a master of liminal political situations - Gaza was not "occupied" but it was not free, the West Bank was conquered but also not annexed, Palestinians could have "limited autonomy" under the Palestinian Authority, a non-government government. The settlements are Israeli but not in Israel. And now Gaza is again occupied but not occupied in a different way. The IDF is not the responsible occupying power, but there is also no functioning government. No one controls Gaza, which itself has been a kind of liminal territory since 1948.

Landmark piece on settlers here -

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/magazine/israel-west-bank-settler-violence-impunity.html

Haven't clicked but I guess its landmark purely bcz its NYT..

This interview...just the levels of violence ans dehumanisation, if you are still breathing..

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/tanya-haj-hassan-interview-gaza-healthcare/

200+ abductions!

Medical workers reporting from Gaza are some of the most difficult things I've ever read (I didn't read that one, but there was an NPR one a little while ago that was nauseating), though I'm fairly squeamish.

The NYT piece looks interesting (only just started it). Perhaps the general scope of events isn't news, but the first part's focus on the settler movement's impunity from the law as a force undermining Israel as a democracy and diving the country politically seems worth reading. Here's a gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/magazine/israel-west-bank-settler-violence-impunity.html?unlocked_article_code=1.sk0.1wPs.rgEUqaRH0JSa&smid=url-share

Haven't finished that interview, doubt I will