The shittest of bins - rolling the Global Economy back to the Stone Age

The other thread is getting way too long.

Yesterday, I had someone from the US ask me if I could help build a Chinese battery factory in Australia to get round the tariffs.

Globalizations is getting weird.

In case this new thread takes hold, the "other thread" is: Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

let's just do this and be legends

can mods please unlock the old thread

it was definitely time for a new shitbin thread

why? xp

that was a grand old thread and ed didnt even ask if anyone wanted a new one, rude

obvs they are intertwined, but was it deliberate to switch from a US economy thread to a Global one?

we are even being forced to downsize our threads ... things are not looking good

rip usa

i dont understand the logic of needing a new thread even its ok for seventeen years and however many posts but now its not

thread tariffs

good luck USA

it's over

line go down

Rally in US stocks evaporates as White House doubles down on tariffs on China

i'm more concerned that threads about american economics are being outsourced to australia. also, are we allowed to talk about the "US economy" or is that not inclusive enough for the woke ilx message board?

can mods lock this thread i made a new one Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

stop being a baby

US econ talk goes here now: Freedom

stop being a baby

― budo jeru, Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:22 PM (twenty seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

what a charming young man

lol rob

a politics thread by any other name still sucks ass

we are even being forced to downsize our threads ...

Reportedly DOGE operatives have entered the 77 borad

oh no, do they have access to the voting rolls from all of our polls?

a politics thread by any other name still sucks ass

― glum mum (map), Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:27 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

lol true

taytayfan is gonna have a lot to answer for xp

i like the old one because shitbin is such a great word

(Fred Schneider voice)

Down, down, down…

i like the old one because shitbin is such a great word

― a (waterface), Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:34 PM (forty-seven seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

seriously "The shittest of bins" absolute worst ilx jokey thread title voice

omg relax the title is fine, now you're just being an asshole!

dude can we not call each other assholes

We have a new thread for US
USA Economics - Protectionist Waste Management down 2%

pointless bitching about ilx thread titles is a long and outstanding tradition

here's an idea: don't tell me how to post

Not to be a dick, but non-US posters often complain about excess US content

someone needs a wittle nap and a baba

seriously "The shittest of bins" absolute worst ilx jokey thread title voice

― lag∞n, Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:36 PM (five minutes ago)

oh I think we can do worse

shit bin ein auslander

youre right its not nearly the worst it actually a totally normal bad ilx thread title

someone needs a wittle nap and a baba

― a (waterface), Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:40 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

seriously go out and find a hug bro

the shittiest of bins would have been better

lol thats what i thought it said

I’m totally fine with Ed starting this thread and WmC locking the old one, for whatever that’s worth

sad, its like the great recession meant nothing

tombot otm, the old one was for the 2008 USA crash, now we're taking it on a world tour baby

this thread will be even bigger and greater

we'll make so many posts, so many

stonks

kind of ironic b/c we have arguably not fully recovered from 2008 even now, yet here we are chopping our legs off

im going to post in the new usa economy thread when i see line go down, tho id prefer to post in the old one even if op has abandoned it

happy with this thread for global and non-US direct stuff tho ofc there will be overlap

Too much economics.

the tariff back and forth just feels like a schoolyard exercise at this point.

"ok, well now it's 145% tariff"

"ok well we just put 155% on you"

"fine. 160"

"165 for you!"

"ok INFINITY tariffs"

"Infinity plus 1!"

"Infinity plus infinity"

"you can't do that"

the funny thing is 125% might as well be infinity so the game has stopped when it comes to tariff levels - but my impression is that china has quite a few other, idk call it DLC, measures still in the queue

Yeah, Adam Tooze says it's literally trade-stopping level. How long can we actually manage that? Seems insane.

the funny thing is 125% might as well be infinity

That's what Beijing said today, they're not gonna hike 'em any higher regardless of what Trump does.. the tariffs have pushed ANY U.S. goods out of reach

They should keep the stock market open today for a special session

Yes, it's a shame the entertainment stops at the weekend.

Vietnam’s manufacturers have been hit with mass cancellations of already signed export contracts after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. Officials in Binh Duong, one of VN manufacturing hubs, said in just 3 days (5-8 Apr) export contracts to US worth US$708m have been cancelled pic.twitter.com/fCu03Rjn6F

— Nga Pham (@ngahpham) April 12, 2025

And when I mean everything I mean everything.

― xyzzzz__, Thursday, April 10, 2025 5:35 AM (two days ago)

not gonna say that's not hot, but i'm more into soft doms

also a good reminder of how much of this shit is fucking idiot patriarchy. dude in the "beg for it bitch" video is even _manspreading_.

Some detail around Xi's "Fortress China" program to become more self-sufficient

https://archive.is/YFzOG

Basically: work in progress

(Thanks)

A number of people are now quite vested in the idea that China has steeled itself up against a new trade war with the US -- and it no doubt is true in a legal sense (as China has new retaliation tools).

But dependence on external demand is still China's achilles heel

8/ pic.twitter.com/LsyG0szm2U

— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) April 14, 2025

Like if this were a game for global empire—which it is def not, right?—i’d guess china could wait a little for more internal usa disruption, then act/collude to really sink the dollar (they recently met w usual adversaries and huge bondholders japan and sk), then give assurances to sk and japan, and then while usa flounders take taiwan.

they might temporarily kill that usa market but the rest of the world might line up, and everyone would have to put up with a momentarily smaller global economy-pie.

It’s not in China’s interest for the US to go belly-up

No, but China has enough leverage to choose how much pain to inflict on the USA and where.

https://scontent-lhr8-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/489996619_10232171449342833_6321872794130099818_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=aa7b47&_nc_ohc=5M7N6UJdAj0Q7kNvwGiAfqG&_nc_oc=AdnVuZ5KUNK8NBhxKghmgPLORuZFaClH5N3x-Qg6MhFAp6Zk_AjA6ATkDbS8ZZCFWO7SAz29-krl_6qt95VWXLXS&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr8-2.xx&_nc_gid=ugi4JT8RQfN0Z9ym7uOs3Q&oh=00_AfHZWW3dEli9Yf9khLoaTUBv3rbhtRd7M2Aee8IvKhyC3g&oe=6803E41E

China halting all Boeing orders https://t.co/z2EhUDmptZ

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) April 15, 2025

lol get fucked boeing

when even my partner a super non-conspiracy person is going “wait has boeing been assassinating its critics?” i’m pretty sure their reputation is over.

Art of the deal.

china and vietnam sign 45 cooperation agreement deals today in the face of trump’s tariffs pic.twitter.com/h6nvPIgoli

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) April 14, 2025

Does China sell treasury bills?
I want in on this economic juggernaut

Hong Kong suspends postal service to the US after Trump's tariff hikes https://t.co/1yVHsxgPFD

— CNN (@CNN) April 16, 2025

The Art of the Deal.

The Japanese trade delegation came to meet in good faith with Trump’s economic team and after a while, they realized that Trump’s team didn’t know what they wanted and lacked any authority to reach a deal. So they just left.

That’s where we are in our tariff negotiations. 🫠 pic.twitter.com/9J5CZaSVxY

— Turnbull (@cturnbull1968) April 20, 2025

https://archive.ph/apDcr

I think some of the reasoning in the piece doesn't quite scan though I like it how it says US only have paper while China have actual critical goods.

China can scale back production but that would surely mean job losses and social stresses that would need to be mitigated, which is on top of past stresses to its economy (property bust).

For me the advantage is that the Trump admin are all over the place, its highly unstable governance and so China and other impacted countries could see it out.

Basically: US have elections. China do not.

Interesting thread on China's economy, their real state crash and future fallout.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1928344817710313900.html

Prices around here definitely, noticeably on the rise. The coffee beans I sometimes pick up at Aldi went from close to $6 to close to $8. The beans I used to get at the local co-op went from $9.99 to $11.99. Had a friend just tell me the big bag of beans they would get at Costco went up even more dramatically. She also told me at the regular supermarket they saw them repricing basically the entirety of the liquor section. I can only assume similar things are afoot in every sector.

But the sign said Trump= Low prices

Sign, sign, everywhere a sign

my pres election management strat is so different now

campaign i mean

oh that's right we bosom manor'd the new thread title.

a line of shittier bins grows nearer on the horizon

Most countries have stopped shipping packages to the US because of the removal of the "de minimis" customs exemption.

This AP article from Saturday lists a bunch of countries, but there are many more, including India and Japan as of today.

The end of an exemption on tariff duties for low-value packages coming into the United States is causing multiple international postal services to pause shipping as they await more clarity on the rule.

The exemption, known as the “ de minimis” exemption, allows packages worth less than $800 to come into the U.S. duty free. A total of 1.36 billion packages were sent in 2024 under this exemption, for goods worth $64.6 billion, according to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol Agency.

It is set to expire on Friday. On Saturday, postal services around Europe announced that they are suspending the shipment of many packages to the United States amid confusion over new import duties.

Postal services in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Italy said they will stop shipping most merchandise to the U.S. effective immediately. France and Austria will follow on Monday.

The U.K.'s Royal Mail said it would halt shipments to the U.S. on Tuesday to allow time for those packages to arrive before duties kick in. Items originating in the United Kingdom worth over $100 — including gifts to friends and family — will incur a 10% duty, it said.

Does this mean the USA is... increasingly isolated?

And now the Governor of the Federal Reserve has been fired. Can't wait to see what Marco Rubio does with the job!

Australia's paused too (with exceptions for person to person gifts if under $100)

I dunno - government shutdown with firings and layoffs, 100% additional tariffs on China, AI bubble, dollar down, gold up...

...Browns have a lefthanded QB

Jamie Dimon warning about a likely 'market correction'

Meant to revive this, given the biggest one-day drop today since April after Trump threatened China with heavy tariffs. Could be the top of the peak yesterday.

rollercoasterdrop.jpg

...Browns have a lefthanded QB

<3

BTC took a tumble in spite of the egregious market pumping going on under the hood. big players cashing out?

Gold through the all-time roof

The one problem with Adam Tooze is when you try to explain his ideas to other people you just end up sounding insane pic.twitter.com/KPDkpbFbHR

— Brooks Otterlake (@i_zzzzzz) October 12, 2025

otoh it’s never been not as described there ime

I read somewhere years ago that car repossessions are one of the earliest canaries in the coal mine, when things are rolling towards the shit bin, especially in the U.S. People will give up almost anything before they'll give up on the car. (You can even live in the car!)

Alarm bells are ringing on Wall Street. The recent collapses of Tricolor, a used car seller and sub-prime auto lender, and First Brands, an auto parts supplier, have put the finance industry on edge, almost two decades after problems in the sub-prime mortgage lending market set the stage for the global financial crisis.

“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO, ominously cautioned analysts this week, after the US’s largest bank disclosed a $170m charge tied to Tricolor’s bankruptcy. “Everyone should be forewarned on this one.”

As the car lending market shows signs of strain, business around repossessions is booming. “Right now, we’re overwhelmed with work,” George Badeen, who runs Midwest Recovery and Adjustment in Detroit, Michigan, said.

yes jamie your office is all cockroaches

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File%3ARepo-Man-Poster.jpg

Jamie Dimon IS a cockroach

Dang it, just wanted to put Emilio Estevez from Repo Man here