what do you think will happen with Israel-Palestine?

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not what do you think ought to happen, what do you think *will* happen.

this is something I've been thinking about, but it was crystalised by an Israeli activist I saw last night who thought it possible that, under cover of Bushi's war with Iraq, Sharon would expel the Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza, and possibly Israeli Arabs with them. This sounds a bit outlandish, but we'll know soon enough.

So what do you think is a likely course of events?

DV (dirtyvicar), Friday, 29 November 2002 10:36 (twenty-three years ago)

nadgers, forgot to flag to receive e-mail notification of replies.

DV (dirtyvicar), Friday, 29 November 2002 10:37 (twenty-three years ago)

Sharon will win the next election. He will continue to fence off the west bank grabbing territory around settlements where necessary. The big question is wether he'll let the dome of the rock fall down. My guess is he'll fix it, it will piss of fundamentalist muslims and jews alike but it will avert armageddon (biblical and more literal). There's probably a 50:50 chance of Arafat staying over the lifetime of the next israeli parliament, he could be expelled by sharon, die of natural causes or be ousted internally. Irony would demand that he go hit by a wayward scud. My guess would be Sharon would keep him around in the same ineffectual way.
Sharon I think is about retrenchment and defending the status quo. Netanyahu was about driving out the Palestinians. A sharon lead Isreal will operate by brutal pragmatism.

Ed (dali), Friday, 29 November 2002 10:56 (twenty-three years ago)

Netanyahu will win the next election. There will cat and mouse for the next thirty years as successive Israeli governments batter Palestine, as increasingly less successive attempts at Palestinian authorities both try to fight their corner whilst losing a reign on internal but particularly external extermist terrorists.

After thirty years (or nuclear/chemical/biological atrocity from either side) the world gets bored and bangs their heads together and get told that you have to share. A hopefully smarter younger generation take over. Call me a cynical dreamer.

Pete (Pete), Friday, 29 November 2002 11:04 (twenty-three years ago)

I am currently reading a book, Beyond Culture, written by Edward Hall. In it he states that the Arab-Israeli conflict will never end because once a *revenge* action has started, it can never be stopped. (This is different from our Western culture, someone can for example intervene and thus stop the process.)

nathalie (nathalie), Friday, 29 November 2002 11:09 (twenty-three years ago)

didn't sharon just get the likud nomination?

Ed (dali), Friday, 29 November 2002 11:16 (twenty-three years ago)

yes, Netanyahu conceded defeat yesterday

Jeff W, Friday, 29 November 2002 11:17 (twenty-three years ago)

Sharon is a right wing pragmatist rather than a religious nut. He's pragmatic for his own, rather than Isreal's, ends

Ed (dali), Friday, 29 November 2002 11:24 (twenty-three years ago)

it will be fux0rd

ron (ron), Friday, 29 November 2002 17:59 (twenty-three years ago)

what I think is that things will get more violent, that by learning on the job the Palestinian militants will become more effective and will target settlers and soldiers more than targets within Israel proper, that people in Israel will eventually start to notice that the rightwing solutions aren't actually guaranteeing their security but will keep voting for rightwingers anyway, and eventually for weird geopolitical reasons of its own the United States will tell Israel to pull out of the West Bank & Gaza or forfeit all American aid. This could be a long way in the future.

I also reckon that eventually Israelis will wake up to how many of their country's citizens are not Jewish, and Israel will become more a country with a Jewish majority rather than a Jewish state.

DV (dirtyvicar), Saturday, 30 November 2002 22:57 (twenty-three years ago)

Israel will pull out of the West Bank. Palestine will become a state. Terrorism and attacks from the Arab world will continue, based on the grievances of right of return, wealth, Israel's existance, perpetual anti-Semitism, American involvement, etc.

bnw (bnw), Sunday, 1 December 2002 00:02 (twenty-three years ago)

And then they'll both lez up?

N. (nickdastoor), Sunday, 1 December 2002 01:12 (twenty-three years ago)

what kind of Palestinian state do you envisage - one covering the whole of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, or one on some subset thereof?

DV (dirtyvicar), Sunday, 1 December 2002 12:49 (twenty-three years ago)

Nibbled Green line. Illegal settlements near the green line will be kept in Israel, one further in the west bank will be cut adrift. Sharon will give up none of Jerusalem or its suburbs. I reckon the most controversial thing Sharon will try is to turf the remaining palestinians out of gaza. If he doesn't he'll have the tricky problem of access between west bank and gaza. I'm going to guess that this will happen over the next 10 years or so, by gradual attrition.

Ed (dali), Sunday, 1 December 2002 13:03 (twenty-three years ago)

| was asking BNW in particular.

DV (dirtyvicar), Sunday, 1 December 2002 13:07 (twenty-three years ago)

everything is gonna burn and we'll all take turns

Queen G (Queeng), Sunday, 1 December 2002 17:34 (twenty-three years ago)

yes, isreal will eventually let the palestinians have a (real-ish) state.
yes, the problem won't go away.
yes, there is a danger that something really really nasty will go wrong in the meantime. on either side.
and yes, I thought I hated Sharon until I saw Netenyahu was the alternative. It least he's not a religious nutcase.

jon (jon), Monday, 2 December 2002 10:14 (twenty-three years ago)

what do people think will happen to the Palestinian refugees in other countries? Again, not what you think ought to happen to them, but what will actually happen to them.

I reckon that as part of some huge settlement their host countries will end up being paid a load of money to give them full citizenship rights. I don't foresee them ever being given the right to return to their or their parents' place of residence in Israel proper.

DV (dirtyvicar), Monday, 2 December 2002 15:46 (twenty-three years ago)

The future events of the relationship of the Israeli settlers and the indiginous people of the place they were settling in (the Palestinians) will mirror almost exactly the events of the relationship of the American settlers and the indiginous people of the place they were settling in (the American Indians).

Basically, as the settler population grows and "settles", the idiginous population will be basically whiped out, and the remainders will be shoved into "reservations" (or, as they're called in "The Holy Land"...'refugee camps') that grow smaller and smaller over the years.

The indiginous population of the area will continue to fight back with attacks considered "savage" and "barbaric" (suicide bombing now = scalping then?),and, in fact, these same terms are often used in Israeli descriptions of the Palestinians.

Basically, what happened to the American Indians is what's in store for the Palestinians. Hell, it's already been going on for more than 50 years.

nickalicious (nickalicious), Monday, 2 December 2002 21:50 (twenty-three years ago)

I don't see a bright future in regards to this conflict. Both sides seem to be willing to put up with a lot of violence. To use violence as a justification for more is to accept it, and *all* of its consequences (even the negative ones), no matter what grandstanding politicians say. Ultimately, it is much easier to change your own actions than those of others.

I can't speak for the Palestinians, but, after visiting Israel, I have a better perspective of what is being felt there.

When I went, in January of 2001, most, if not all, of the people I met there were very much in favor of peace, and willing to make concessions towards that end, including the creation of a Palestinian state. The right-wing government there did not seem representative of the views of a significant amount of people, maybe even the majority (this should ring a bell to those of us in the USA). The ascent of the right-wing there has a little to do, though, with the frustrations of liberals who are starting to belive that there is nothing they can do to ever satisfy the Palestinians. It may seem to them, at this point, that any action will cause the same outcome, ie more bombings (an *inexact* analogy *could* be the attitudes of some neo-conservatives to reparations for African-Americans, ie no amount of money will end the disenchantment of poor blacks with white america)

I remember meeting some people on a kibbutz there that were engaged in an Israeli-Palestinian partnership. I feel really sad when I think about the stigmitazation that was felt by both sides, though it seemed much tougher for the Palestinian members there to take the stand that they did compared to the Israelis. It must be much worse for both sides now compared to when I visited. Change in these sorts of matters is slow, and takes a lot of work, and I can't help but thinking that the highly charged climate in the Middle East will make work like this always more difficult.

I know we aren't supposed to discuss the "should" aspect of this matter, but I want to just say that unless Israel stops building settlements, the Palestinians will always feel like they are being backed into a corner, and they will therefore feel pressured to retaliate. No calm and rational solution to the problem will be found until the aformentioned cessation occurs. I also blame the many Arab nations that will NOT accept Palestinian refugees as full citizens, probably in order to ensure the continuation of the conflict.

As a side note, I feel compelled to add that Israel is a very secular state. Whereas Jews is America can pick from a host of movements that require varying degrees of ritual, sacrifice, etc., my experience of Israel is that it is much more cut and dry there. An Isaraeli is most likely either Orthodox (though there are a variety of movements within this realm), or not a practicing Jew. The rough analogy to Christianity would be the choice between Catholicism or nothing.

Aaron Grossman (aajjgg), Monday, 2 December 2002 22:29 (twenty-three years ago)

Something will spark somewhere else (Iran perhaps) throwing palestinians into tumult and somewhat diverting the fundamentalist trend of the past few years, thus gaining Israeli allies. Arafat will meet whoever the new Israeli man in charge is at a u.s. brokered conference and resign Oslo-- anyway and then everyone will keep dying for a while, especially palestinians. Something big will blow up in Israel and then who knows.

Sterling Clover (s_clover), Tuesday, 3 December 2002 07:53 (twenty-three years ago)

Iran will only blow up if prodded by Bush. it culd go either way but to BLair and Straw's credit they are grooming Iran to be a model for Islamic democracy (Oh yeah and trying to get BP's huge oil interests back)

Ed (dali), Tuesday, 3 December 2002 09:49 (twenty-three years ago)

five years pass...

Israel is 60. I don't know if there's anything new to discuss, except that I feel like I see things more clearly than ever - what was wrong with the way the state was founded and the displacement of most of the Arabs who lived there, what was wrong with and continues to be wrong with the occupation, why many Jews have a moral blind spot on Israel and why the situation seems so intractable. I feel like I've gone through a long, slow process of deprogramming, maybe one that started when I was 14 and met a Palestinian my age for the first time, but one that didn't really pick up until late in college. And it took not only Chomskies and Saids and Amira Hasses and the like but also determined friends to make me see it.

And yet I now have a real, familial connection to the state as it exists on the ground, and perhaps I continue to maintain a kind of inverted sentimental attachment to it, even a slight obsession with it, almost like it were an abusive parent and I had become cognizant of the abuse.

Sorry if this is painfully earnest.

Hurting 2, Thursday, 8 May 2008 21:08 (seventeen years ago)

four months pass...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080928/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_israel_palestinians
Exiting Olmert warns of "evil wind of extremism," meaning extremist Jews, not Palestinians. It's no "beware the military industrial complex," but it's a ballsier thing to say right now for an Israeli PM than some here might realize.

Everything is Highlighted (Hurting 2), Sunday, 28 September 2008 15:58 (seventeen years ago)

Evil wind jokes in 5...4...

Everything is Highlighted (Hurting 2), Sunday, 28 September 2008 15:59 (seventeen years ago)

Was just reading about this -- would it have been better for him to say it in office?

Ned Raggett, Monday, 29 September 2008 17:27 (seventeen years ago)

This is being interpreted as pointing more at settlers than the mainstream public or political process, right? That seems important to me, because if Israel ceases to be able to control its settlers, it actually pulls them toward the level of the Palestinians -- i.e., the authority you're negotiating peace with doesn't actually have the ability or political will to control the problems you're negotiating over.

nabisco, Monday, 29 September 2008 17:33 (seventeen years ago)


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