El Niño!!

y'all ready for this??

A “super” El Niño is gaining strength as we speak. If the climate phenomenon continues building at this pace, it could become the strongest El Niño we’ve seen in more than 75 years.

Yeah California press has been referencing past "super" El Niño years of 82/83 and 97/98 for comparison, and that this year is looking to exceed those high "watermarks".

I remember 98. We drove over the Altamont Pass into the Central Valley towards Tracy and I recall seeing nothing but water as far as the eye could see. Was very disturbing.

Yeah, it'll be something, that's for sure.

Yeah I remember 1998 as well, that was a wet winter!

We can obv use the rain, but at least in Northern CA, the reservoirs are already in pretty good shape

the mixed blessing of heavy rains means tons of extra vegetation which will be tinder-dry by the summer

Aware? you bet! Ready? more like resigned to it.

I lost my car in Socal to flooding during 97/98 El Niño. Parked it at the bottom of a hill while at my friend's house and came out to it submerged. loved that little Honda Civic

According to the internet, a super El Nino in NYC environs means a warmer and dryer fall, and typically a warmer and dryer (less snowfall) winter? But interspersed with increased chances of chaotic storms that don't follow the pattern. So, ummmm....sorry to California?

https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/08/ELNINO_RAINFALL_2026.png

The 1982-1983 El Nino inspired some excellent National Geographic photos: that issue was a fixture of my childhood.

There was snow in some parts of Montana this past weekend. Where I live we get snow by Halloween at the latest, and it might be coming earlier this year.

yeah the california ski resorts are looking towards a heavy year, but you can't even drive up there if there's too much snow on I-80

A lot of us within that big brown bit in the middle of that map upthread (Sydney, Melbourne, Tasmania, etc) have officially just had the warmest winter (June-August is usually 'winter' here for statistical purposes) since records began, though I understand that rainfall itself didn't depart much from average. Can't say I'm a fan of El Niño.

can't say I'm a fan of climate change, either

Totally. And the years when it's a double act with El Niño are years when everything is (even more) likely to catch fire here a couple of months from now.

ride ride ride the wild surf

Concerns are mounting about an ocean phenomenon known as a Kelvin wave that could raise sea levels along the California coastline by up to a foot, as scientists say El Niño is supercharging the threat of storm surges and flooding in the coming months.

As an incredibly strong El Niño continues to develop in the Pacific, the phenomenon brings with it a strange shift in the ocean. The Kelvin wave phenomenon is created when trade winds that usually blow from South America towards Asia die down or reverse in El Niño years, setting off a massive, slow-moving slosh of water.

Yeah for me in San Francisco, El Niños can easily overwhelm the shared sanitary/storm sewer system and turn old creekbeds (and houses adjacent to them, even on hills) into rivers of black water.

I am starting my preparations.

I've tried to shore up my place this year and store supplies to anticipate it because it seems like it's going to be a deluge

SF experienced 10+ inches of rain from Dec 26th 2022 through Jan 4th 2023, with almost 5 inches coming on New Years Day. My street, which slopes downhill, was a river of water, and the cracks in my retaining wall resulted in water pouring into my downhill neighbor's basement. I also had interior leaks along the back and side walls of my house. It was not good.

Recommend Daniel Swain's YT channel if you want to get into the numbers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPJkTkX-S-s

I've tried to shore up my place this year and store supplies to anticipate it because it seems like it's going to be a deluge

Mm, pondering this for sure. Happy to have a top floor apartment but that can have its own risks, though the roof's gotten a lot of extra patchwork in the intervening years.