99th Academy Awards March 14, 2027

Regarding Best Actor:

I just watched Project Hail Mary. It was treacly and sentimental but I kind of liked Ryan Gosling in it. Is he in line for a nomination?

Andrew Scott will be nominated for Elsinore probably, but the film doesn't sound that great to me. Likewise Matt Damon in The Odyssey. Maybe John Malkovich for Wild Horse Nine?

Tom Cruise in Digger is still to come. I love Iñárritu

Carrie Coon’s sounding like a strong Best Actress contender for The Liberation.

I hope The Invite gets recognized.

She is a favorite of mine. I will watch her in anything, but it also seems like if she is nominated it will be the sole nomination for that film

What about Inde Navarrette in Obsession? I haven't seen it

I also haven't seen The Invite

I have not seen any of these movies, but I truly hope the best movie among the nominees takes the top honors

I am also excited for next year's Academy Awards because they will be the 100th, which I'm sure we can all agree is a much more significant number

sorry, by "next year's" I meant the 2028 Awards, as the 2027 (literally next year) will be the 99th. not 100th

Gosling and Navarette are both possibilities:

https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2027

(As well as Cruise, Malkovich, and Scott.)

Obsession is at a disadvantage for having dropped relatively early, but Focus knows how to campaign for awards season so maybe Navarrette won't get left behind.

A lot of people are assuming Digger is a serious Oscar contender for Cruise, Goodman, Inarritu, etc. -- but I have to say the trailer looks really bad. I really wonder if it's the slam dunk people think it is. Seem like it could be divisive!

xp I don't think early releases are at a disadvantage as much as they used to be.

I liked Project Hail Mary and I liked Gosling in Project Hail Mary, and best actor has been awarded to people doing far less, but my hunch is that it's not his year.

Yeah Best Actor is crowded. Forgot to mention that Damon is also currently predicted as getting in.

Actress is more open this year, which is good news for Navarette. Also hearing some people suggest that Anne Hathaway should go lead this year for The Odyssey, although I'm skeptical that that's the best strategy.

It's a good strategy for Samantha Morton, tho

I also hope The Invite -- my current favorite of 2026 -- gets recognized. Adapted Screenplay seems like its best bet, but it would be cool to see it get it more.

Edward Norton tends to get nominated and would deserve one for Best Supporting Actor.

Adapted Screenplay will be crowded competition this year!

curious about Penelope Cruz. she is being predicted for La Bola Negra but my understanding is that it's a one scene performance. if that movie underperforms, maybe a nomination for The Invite becomes more of a possibility.

is this the 2026 detrius thread?

I'm seeing more critics' posts/tweets/etc. along the lines of "this is going to be [Malkovich's]/[Coon's]/etc. Oscar year" than in past years, and kind of absurd given the major unscreened films yet to come, but it may be I just haven't followed festival coverage as closely.

given a) mostly positive reviews for Wild Horse Nine out of Venice, b) the Academy's love of the last two McDonagh movies, and c) general industry affection for Malkovich, who has not been Oscar-nominated in 33 years (and has never won), I think he is quite likely to get nominated.

I haven't heard much about the Coon movie, but I think it will probably need an organic groundswell of support to get her into the mix, given that the distributor (Bleecker Street) doesn’t have much of an Oscars track record. fwiw they're also distributing the new Mike Leigh movie (Tender Loving Care), which has a lot of buzz behind it and the narrative that it is likely his last, so it may also depend on where they want to focus their efforts.

but to your general point, yeah, a lot of this is just speculative. at this time last year, people thought A House of Dynamite was going to be a major contender.

and Jay Kelly, too.

. I love Iñárritu

The most offensive thing you've ever posted.

I guess we'll know in early October if Behemoth! (written/directed by Tony Gilroy) will be a contender.

I'm glad this thread exists but it's too early for speculation.

is this the 2026 detrius thread?

I wouldn’t think so! Detrius takes in much more than Oscar contenders.

My hope is that Possible Love will get some people finally interested in Lee Chang-dong, one of our greatest directors. It stars Jeon Do-yeon, who won Cannes Best Actress in 2007 for Secret Sunshine.

His films are usually snubbed because they are too enigmatic. I think if Drive My Car can win an Oscar then one of his films can. I will be curious to see how it does at Venice. Every film I've seen of his has seemed pretty great to me. His last film Burning was 8 years ago.

Persuading my critics group to award Steven Yeun Best Supprring Actor in 2018 for Burning is one of my proudest moments.

I would've awarded Poetry Best Actress in 2011 too.

Richard Lawson engages in some Best Actress speculation in his newsletter:
https://www.premiereparty.com/p/what-the-hell-is-going-on-with-best-actress

I hope to see Antonio Banderas in the conversation.

Yeah, he deserves that. (And I want his fisherman's sweater from Tony.)

I trust no one who loves that Oasis doc -- even Matt Zoller Seitz.

My hope is that Possible Love will get some people finally interested in Lee Chang-dong, one of our greatest directors. It stars Jeon Do-yeon, who won Cannes Best Actress in 2007 for Secret Sunshine.

I can’t think of any movie that I’ve had such a “want to see/this could potentially be unbelievably awful” feeling as a hearing about a nearly three-hour film reuniting Lee Chang-dong and Jeon Do-yeon (yay!) / reuniting Lee Chang-dong and Sul Kyung-gu (ugh).

I suspect this will need its own thread, but talk of this being the first documentary to be nominated for best picture.

https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/nathan-fielder-you-can-see-everything-elizabeth-holmes-oscars-1236854109/

really looking forward to that

not as many great movies this year so far as I'd have thought though admittedly I may have missed stuff. the Invite is excellent, would love a nomination for any of the 4, screenplay, even director.

Navarette is fine in Obsession I guess but I don't quite get the, uh, obsession the internet and culture seem to be having with her.

She is good looking I think.

I'm 100% in favor of genre nominations -- I'm looking at Rachel McAdams in Send Help -- but Navarette is fine not excellent.

Variety Oscar predictions, with links to extended lists/rankings for each of the major categories.

The buzz I'm hearing (from podcasts lol) is that Andrew Scott and Julianne Moore secured their nominations (and possible wins?) at Telluride and Toronto.

Don't know that I agree with Variety on Dune/Villeneuve. The obvious corollary is LOTR: Return of the King winning in 2003. But I don't know that there's enough widespread passion for Dune as a franchise as there was for LOTR back then.

I'm so tired of Andrew Scott's Sadface Gay schtick but I think I'm the only one.

He is my best movie-friend's favorite actor, but I'm kind of with you on that, Alfred

I read that all of the Cannes film winners (except screenplay) have been submitted for the International Feature award - Fjord, Minotaur, Fatherland, The Dreamed Adventure, La Bola Negra, All of a Sudden, and Coward.

Plus, South Korea submitted Possible Love

La Bola Negra wins TIFF People's Choice Award. As far as I can tell, the first non-English language winner since 2011? Anyway, have to think that boosts its already considerable Oscar odds, especially since 16 of the last 18 People's Choice winners earned Oscar Best Picture nominations. (Only ones that didn't were that 2011 winner, Where Do We Go Now?, and 2024 winner The Life of Chuck.)