ILX Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball League 2003 -- Part 4: ...going...

Here, let me open a tag:

< bnw wrath >

Snooker? I hardly knew her!

Benching Prior + starting Danny Graves in the same week!

2 of my players are on the reality DL. What am I supposed to do? I put one of them on the yahoo! fantasy "DL" but it didn't open a roster spot for me, I don't think. What good is having a "DL" spot? I am already aware the player is on the reality DL, THANK YOU.

Sincerely,

New York Newbie

When it asks you which player of yours to drop when adding the new guy (which it always does, regardless), there should be a choice "empty". Pick that one.

Thank you. I tried that but it did not let me! Perhaps the problem is that I have 2 players on the DL? I am very worried about my team.

Sincerely,

Worried in Midtown

I read about the remedial fielding exercises Ankiel does to practice fundamentals on one of his many fan sites. Like the coach will roll the ball. Poor lil guy. :(

And if you can get Alfie for JT Snow in addition to swapping Green for Gagne, that would be a big ol' steal. Closers ain't nothin' but upstars & charlatans - treat them as such. (& gimme some - I need saves.)

Zito
Washburn
Beckett
Ishii
Lidle
Gagne
Worrell
Mantei
Macdougal

Zambonies = smoke & mirrors!

13 games pitched
1 win
4 saves
17 KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKs
10.13 ERA
2.40 WHIP
1 roofie / sexual assault allegation

come and get 'im.

I need Prior to get a W and 6 K more than Jake Peavy tonight. Me:Zambonies::Brian Wilson:Lennon-McCartney. I am obsessed.

I hope I can hang onto 9th for a while. It just seems like the right "fit."

Here is the league top 10 as of yesterday:

alfonso soriano
gary sheffield
mike mussina
alex rodriguez
carlos delgado
carl everett
eric gagne
todd helton
javier vasquez
esteban loiza

congrats you guys, y'all are kicking my ass.

My justification for this trade: I need more team speed, I need more roster flexibility, it changes my starting OF from Sosa / Berkman / Beltran to Sosa / Berkman / Wells (which is just fine w/ me), and I get rid of A) Fat Elvis and B) a dope-headed gamer that's content to suffer through hamstring pulls & turf toe & brain damage just to show how tough he is.

See, that opinion I respect. The fuckclowns in my league (who're saying the same exact thing) get NO LOVE from me.

Boring roster booshit:

Old starting lineup -
C - LoDuca
1B - Delgado
2B - Vidro
SS - Rollins
3B - fucking Glaus
OF - Sosa
OF - Beltran
OF - fucking Berkman
Util - Durazo

New starting lineup is the same, except for switching Jimenez for Glaus & Vernon Wells for Berkman. Also, if I need SBs, I can slide Cameron in for a game or two. (Also also - my league doesn't do average - we do OPB & SLG. Right on.) Jiminez is batting 2ndish for a killer lineup; Glaus is batting 5th in a lineup of stiffs where Garrett Anderson steals all his RBI opportunities. And Glaus couldn't run before he got hurt. And Berkman ... well, Berkman can just suck it.

U&K question: am I trying to justify this trade w/ you fine folks, or am I trying to justify this trade to myself? Hmmm.

The REAL impetus for this trade is the dumbest reason possible - I wanted to make a change. My team, as it stood, was pissing me off. Team chemistry blah blah. I need Felicity to come online and repost her Unassailable Baseball Truths.

Also, Detroit Tigers en fuego!!!!

that walks don't count toward total bases for pitchers? wtf?

i don't know james... i'm statwatching right now and worrell put a guy on with a BB and yet his TB is zero. i'll try to find the yahoo! definition of TB.

I found this on the INTerNet. I figure he'll fit in very nicely on the Tigers (who have actually been winning games lately! Come on guys... you're never gonna land Lebron James if you keep this up!).

That quote makes it sound like Alex Sanchez is five. Or a dog.

i giggled.

Managerial decision of the day... do I bench Derek Lowe for the game against the Yankees tonight? He's been awful away from home and the Yanks seem to have snapped out of it last night.... my mind sez no, but my heart sez yes!!

Oh no, Percival down with Bo Jackson type disease! Who Is Killing the Great Closers of Baseball?

Jason Schmidt is a big stud. I want to have like 10,000 of his babies.

H/AB = 5/13 (.385)
BB = 3
OBP = (.500)
HR = 3
3B = 1
2B = 1
SLG = (1.308)
OPS = (1.808)
R = 6
RBI = 7

He's a 3rd baseman, but he's been PH-ing and playing LF in Bonds' absence. Granted, a lot of this slugging took place at Coors, but Alfonzo continues to be less than mediocre.

CIN's Jeff Austin gives up back to back to back HRs to Furcal, DeRossa and Sheffield to start the game. He gets 2 outs before giving up a single to Fick. Up comes Javy Lopez who goes long.

6 runs on 4 HRs in the bottom of the 1st all to Austin. He gets pulled and they put in Jeff Hamilton who ends the inning.

Patterson pitches smoothly through the 2nd, well, except for ANOTHER HR from Furcal.

now it's the 3rd... no more long ball:

-J. Lopez doubled to deep left, R. Fick scored
-R. Ortiz singled to right, J. Lopez scored, V. Castilla to third, V. Castilla scored, R. Ortiz to second
-G. Sheffield doubled to left, R. Ortiz scored, R. Furcal to third
-C. Jones grounded out to first, R. Furcal scored, G. Sheffield to third

11-0 after three innings.

You can look but you can't touch... unless you open up your wallet.

(OK - second best hitter, behind Kearns.)

I was wondering what happened to felicity, I expected her to comment about her boy Prior who was rocking and rolling until two out in the 8th.

The funniest thing about that Cinci game will be waiting to see if Boone brings in a position player to pitch.

but yeah, Schmidt lasted longer. he's always been hittable but he looked good through 9, throwing 94-96 mph (152-155km/h) well into a triple digit pitch count.

Santiago = best season ever at 38 years old?! It's looking that way.

Also, help me differentiate between Casey Fossum and Jessy Foppert. I always get those two mixed up.

I can't believe I put Ricky Stone on my team and he throws at Pujols' head. What a jackass. I hate when my homerism and ILB wishes conflict.

Despite all this I'm in 8th place and should be manager of the year.

Aaron W. is running away with a 40 point advantage. He leads the league in Runs, Stolen Bases and Batting Average and is in the top 3 in RBI, Caught Stealing, OnBase%+Slugging, Wins, and ERA. His stars: Carlos Delgado and Barry Bonds on offense, Hideo Nomo and Shawn Chacon in pitching.

In second and leading the league in ERA and WHIP, skinny pups led by pitchers Kevin Brown, Matt Morris, and offensive leader Richie Sexson.

Third and fourth are held by The Lurkers and Joey "Albert" Belle Has A Posse, both with well-balanced teams.

Top 10 Players overall and respective owners:

#1. Alfonso Soriano (Zambonies)
#2. Gary Sheffield (0-fers)
#3. Carlos Delgado (Aaron Ws A-OKs)
#4. Mike Mussina (The Lurkers)
#5. Eric Gagne (Doo-Dooettes)
#6. Albert Pujols (Millar Time)
#7. Carl Everett (many turgid corpses)
#8. Mark Prior (ChicksDigKs)
#9. Bret Boone (Disco Avengers)
#10. Rafael Furcal (Millar Time)

In other news, looks like Mo Vaughn's career is over.

here's a good article from the WP (w/ DIPS talk, you stat geeks):

Evaluation By Numbers Is Beginning To Add Up

By Thomas Boswell
Thursday, May 29, 2003; Page D01

For nearly 25 years, there's been a huge food fight in baseball. The argument was basic: How do you evaluate a player?

On one side were general managers, scouts and managers. For the most part, they evaluated players the old-fashioned way -- with their eyes, stopwatches and radar guns and by looking at statistics which were popularized in the 19th century.

Their mind-set was always, "How fast does he run? How hard does he throw? What's his batting average? Does he look like a major leaguer should look?"

On the other side -- led by statistical gurus such as Bill James and Pete Palmer, and assisted by countless lesser "seamheads" (including, at times, me) -- were the geeks, the outsiders, mere fans, who thought they knew better.

The default setting of those who talked about Runs Created, Adjusted Production or Total Average was, "What's his on-base percentage? What's his slugging average? Forget steals and defense. Does he draw lots of walks?"

Guess what: "Revenge of the Nerds" may be playing in a ballpark near you.

Many of us never thought this day would come. Now, with the best-selling success of "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis, sophisticated statistical analysis has finally become a publicly acknowledged part of baseball's mainstream. As Lewis has chronicled, the methods used by the Oakland Athletics in recent years have succeeded so suddenly and so well that, after reading "Moneyball," many an owner -- especially poorer ones -- will have to ask, "Why aren't we doing it this way?"

A few years ago, Oakland General Manager Billy Beane bought the whole New School stat-analysis worldview, inspired by James's popular "Baseball Abstract" but expanded by many people over many years. Beane's 100-win low-budget A's have been constructed almost entirely on academic ideas that are heresy to traditionalists.

In Beane's world, the stats always rule. If they dictate that you replace Jason Giambi (lost to free agency) with obscure Scott Hatteberg, so be it. If numbers say that an unwanted Class AAA submarine pitcher named Chad Bradford will be a star, then you trade for him. Without ever seeing him. And if those stats say spend a No. 1 draft pick on an overweight college catcher nobody else wants, then do it and ignore the laughter. In Oakland, scouts are de-emphasized. Drafting high school kids, who have few valid stats to analyze, is almost verboten. And fresh-out-of-college whizzes with computers run the A's in cyberspace.

Just as important, Beane's disciples or imitators are now in complete control of the Boston Red Sox (for whom James is a consultant) and the Toronto Blue Jays -- the Red Sox lead the American League East and the Blue Jays are three games back. The virus has spread. The genie is out of the lamp. There's no turning back now.

Forward-thinking individuals in baseball understood many of the new statistical models long ago, but they were never in control of a franchise. Often they had to hide their knowledge as though it were shameful. In 1985, when Davey Johnson managed the Mets, he had Palmer's stat classic "The Hidden Game of Baseball" on his bookshelf. However, when he mentioned "Professor Ernshaw Cook's theory of favorable chance deviation," I knew he was a fellow "sabermetric" subversive.

What's different now is that one person -- Beane -- has been allowed to build an entire organization using the tools that some, like Johnson, knew existed long ago. A handful of tenets are at the core of what Beane is doing. Though some of the math is hard, the conclusions aren't. His "secrets" may be alarmingly easy to copy.

• Analyze all hitters through on-base percentage. Getting on base, while making the fewest outs, is the heart of offense. Walks are wonderful. Hitters who know the strike zone drive pitchers crazy. High on-base hitters usually take many pitches, foul off two-strike pitches and, as a result, exhaust the pitch limits of most quality starters. Result: Crummy relievers enter the game and get waxed. Even in a three-game series, the high on-base team wins a war of pitching attrition. The Yankees teams of Joe Torre have used this theory in recent years. The Red Sox do now.

• Slugging percentage is the only other vital offensive statistic. Power matters. Combine on-base and slugging averages, with much more emphasis on the former, and you'll automatically build a high-scoring lineup. Hard as it is to believe, many high on-base average players come cheap. Walks are boring. Nobody comes to see, or pays big salaries to, walkers. (So, Beane grabs 'em easily.) As for batting average, ignore it. Irrelevant. Forget stolen bases, too. Until your success rate is over 70 percent, attempting to steal is, mathematically speaking, a waste of time.

• A superstar, such as Giambi, can be replaced -- at reasonable cost -- in pieces. When the A's lost Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and DH Olmedo Saenz after '01, they added David Justice, Hatteberg and Jeremy Giambi. The combined on-base percentage and slugging percentage of the three new players roughly equaled the comparable statistics of the three lost players. Jason Giambi wasn't missed.

• Any decent pitcher can be turned into a star closer because any solid pitcher should be able to pitch one inning when he always enters with the bases empty. Once you create such an overrated star, you immediately trade him at peak value. Then just develop a new closer since it's so easy to do. Repeat as needed.

• To evaluate pitchers, use the breakthrough DIPS theory of stat man Voros McCracken that's been invented in the last three years. DIPS stands for "defense independent pitching statistic." It's a stunner. Nobody believed it at first, but now most serious stat geeks accept it. Once a batter hits a pitch, it's very close to pure luck whether it gets caught or not. From one season to another, for example, Greg Maddux's ERA may fluctuate by 1.5 runs even though he pitches identically. One season a lot of hits find holes. The next, they don't.

So, to learn how good a pitcher is, McCracken measures only his strikeouts, walks and home runs, because those stats are unconnected to his defense. (Nobody has to field a walk, a strikeout or a home run.) This method unearths radically underrated pitchers who had poor ERAs or bad winning percentages simply because they were unlucky. Buy 'em cheap. Then wait for their luck to turn.

There's a lot more skinny from this realm of what was once statistical mystery. But now the Blue Jays and Red Sox -- with their A's-cloned GMs -- know it, too. Billy has spilled the Beanes to Lewis. Pretty soon, thanks to "Moneyball," the whole sport will catch up to the curve -- the learning curve, that is. And it's about time.

© 2003 The Washington Post Company

Oh, thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you THANK YOU!

(Note: I actually typed the first 8 "thank you"s before Alt-V'ing because I'm SO F*CKING HAPPY! YAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAY!)

Now, if only they could dredge up better bullpen fodder besides RUDY F*CKING SEANEZ. (If Garces was El Guapo, is Seanez El Guano or something?)

I'd say something to gygax! regarding Mueller & Edgardo, but I already jinxed the Gints bullpen, so I'll shut up.

Anyway, I think this is a great trade for Boston - and Kim should totally start; he oughta baffle the AL for at least a little while. And I'm all for the new breed of younger GMs. But let's not anoint these guys geniuses. Last time I checked neither Boston nor Oakland has won jack shit. I heard the interview with Michael Lewis on "fresh air" (wow, fresh air and the Post?! Yay for the PR machine!), and it was certainly interesting and entertaining (I'm planning to pick up Moneyball; as much because I dug Liar's Poker as anything), but still I wonder if it wouldn't be prudent to hold off on the hagiographies until these guys, you know, grab the brass ring.

how healthy is Kim and will he stay healthy?

I'm all for waiting until they win before handing out accolades, but while both Riccardi & Epstein need more time to work their mojo (& Theo's the only 1 of the 3 that actually has a fat bankroll to work with), Beane's been fantastic given what he's had to work with (payroll-wise), and for him to fashion a perrenial contender without much moolah might earn him (& his staff) that "genius" cap. Though a li'l luck has to be taken into account, too - how often does a team manage to get 3 starters as great as you-know-who w/out injuries or other li'l gremlins wrecking plans?

Gygax!, from what I know, the only problem w/ Kim is his ankle. If that's his only problem, it's all good.

Hopefully Kim stays in the rotation, I need Lyon's saves, now my one bright spot.

And I've heard an ex-A's scout gripe about how Beane lusted over Ariel Prieto over Todd Helton in the '95 draft.

But this doesn't matter. What matters is ESPN comparing Shea to Kim re: success against the Yankees. Nimrods.

PS - I NEED SAVES!