Hands off Iran!

Iran substitute 'The US'.

when are "we" going after the saudis anyway? i mean, that really actually is where al-quaeda is from, and it's a dictatorship with a bad human rights record, what am i missing here?

And they did such a good job when they tried that with the EU.
Hey, Brain! What are we going to do today? - The same thing we do every day, Pinky.

1. 'Iran's... government... poses a big problem for the United States and should be replaced, lawmakers said Sunday.'

2. South Korea's government poses a big problem for North Korea and should be replaced, Kim Jong-il said Sunday.

3. Britain is a 'failed state' living in the shadow of the US and would be better administered from Berlin, said Chancellor Schroeder yesterday.

4. The government of Greenland is out of touch with the wishes of the people and will be replaced at the next general election, said the people of Greenland.

That's right, it's 4 which is hopelessly idealistic and out of touch with present realities.

if anything the white house line in that slate article is MORE muted and LESS firebreathing, esp.given the scale of the victory being claimed in iraq (ie it actually — slightly — reflects acknowledgment of the difficulties ahead) (ok perhaps that's reading a lot into "that's hard", but the fact that they've stepped back from "we can now do anything" is a step AWAY from yr worst case, isn't it?)

What's so disheartening is that even the Democratic position is so far right:

'Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., a Democratic presidential hopeful who strongly backed the Iraq war, said "regime change" is the answer in Iran. He said he was not suggesting U.S. military action because of the pro-American attitudes of many Iranians.'

Which seems to imply that the fact that Iranians are not 100% anti-American is the only thing keeping the tanks from rolling into Teheran.

? I'm not spotting your connection, especially since that involved a sitting Democratic president.

The U.S. tiptoes around the Saudis because they have oil.

(Insert Louie Armstrong song chorus here, with extreme sarcasm.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35772-2003May24.html

"It worked so well in Latin America":

In an interview in February with the Los Angeles Times, Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage drew a distinction between the confrontational approach the administration had taken with Iraq and North Korea and the approach it had adopted with Iran. "The axis of evil was a valid comment, [but] I would note there's one dramatic difference between Iran and the other two axes of evil, and that would be its democracy. [And] you approach a democracy differently," Armitage said.

At one of the meetings, in early January, the United States signaled that it would target the Iraq-based camps of the Mujaheddin-e Khalq (MEK), or People's Mujaheddin, a major group opposing the Iranian government.

The MEK soon became caught up in the policy struggle between the State Department and the Pentagon.

After the camps were bombed, the U.S. military arranged a cease-fire with the group, infuriating the Iranians. Some Pentagon officials, impressed by the military discipline and equipment of the thousands of MEK troops, began to envision them as a potential military force for use against Tehran, much like the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.

But the MEK is also listed as a terrorist organization by the State Department. Under pressure from State, the White House earlier this month ordered the Pentagon to disarm the MEK troops -- a decision that was secretly conveyed by U.S. officials to Iranian representatives at a meeting in Geneva on May 3.

The MEK is considered a terrorist organisation by the (merely conservative) State department and a group of Northern-Alliance-like freedom fighters by the (ultra-hawk) Pentagon. Their camps are bombed during the Iraq war, but then a truce is made with them. But this infuriates the Iran government and pushes the Iranian state ever-faster towards nuclear armament (because it's clear that's the only way not to be invaded, see N. Korea).

Meanwhile the White House orders the Pentagon to disarm the MEK (perhaps to start their make-over into legitimate democracy campaigners in Iran), effectively splitting the group into two factions: 'politicians' who seek legitimacy and 'guerillas' with a bloody agenda. (Like the IRA, and like the GOP.) Nine days later the Saudi Arabian suicide bombings happen -- and the implication is that it's a splinter group involving the MEK guerillas who didn't believe in becoming a tool for US overt/covert operations against Tehran.

there's some complicated conspiracy theory that somehow involves Bush I and Reagan in some ploy to prevent the release of the hostages before the 1980 election. I cannot remember how credible it is.

Momus - the statement that Joe Lieberman represents the "Democratic position" is either ignorant or disingenuous.

WASHINGTON — The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier is leaving the fight with Iran and heading back to port, a U.S. official familiar with the matter said, after a fire broke out in its laundry area and left at least two sailors with non-life-threatening injuries.

in the past some chud would post a pic of a US aircraft carrier with "x-country is about to find out why we don't have healthcare". Now people might just think it is time to demand healthcare rather funding a floating brick-shithouse.

from the grauniad - date of the apocalypse pushed back slightly:

The US president, Donald Trump, has said he has instructed the defence department to postpone all airstrikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period. This is subject to the “success” of ongoing “meetings and discussions”, he said in a Truth Social post.

Trump said that, over the last two days, Washington and Tehran had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East”.

Trump said on Saturday that he was giving Iran 48 hours – until shortly before midnight GMT on Monday – to open the strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway effectively being blocked by Iran which carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Tehran said it would “irreversibly destroy” essential infrastructure across the Middle East, including vital water systems, if the US followed through on Trump’s threat.

Xp either it’s ai or the author is an idiot who doesn’t know how jokes work, I might start saying “that’s narrow like in white and tailored as in card apparently” tho

xp

there was an industrial site in Iran bombed last night and some people were reporting it as a hit on a power station, thank fuck it wasn't a power station.

If I were not completely disregarding every post calzino makes itt I would have thought the attacks had already happened!!

good for you, good for America!

calz, the footage you posted last night from jesse cohen was from march 4th, there's been a community note added since then

anyway, fingers crossed this is the start of a classic trump taco manouevre although fuck knows how it'll be possible to reverse-ferret from this position

calz is still more trustworthy than Trump

Hmm maybe what ilx needs is *better* twitter integration, so we can auto-update the twitter embeds whenever something is confirmed misinformation

xxxp
yes I have seen that now. I will harikari myself next week. No it is rare bit of good news and glad the post was bollox. If IRGC started hitting desalination plants today that would not be good.

Okay lol I looked up how "JesseCohenInv" is and why he has a platform and this is just *chef's kiss*
https://www.businessinsider.com/elliott-hedge-fund-jesse-cohen-profile-2019-10?op=1

I honestly don't follow Jesse Cohen and have never heard of them. And they posted some fake bollox and I posted it. I'm owning it!

anyway my brother lives in an Oman desert facing part of Dubai and I get real reportage from him on what's happening the Gulf. I'm glad the desalination plant there isn't getting bombed today tbh.

Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi is saying there were not any talks with Trump and he simply backed down.

from al-jazeera's liveblog:

Iranian media say no direct or indirect contact with Trump, claim he ‘backed down’
Iran’s Fars news agency, citing an unnamed Iranian source, says there has been no direct contact with US President Donald Trump, “not through an intermediary”.

The source claimed Trump “backed down” after being warned that Iran would target power plants.

The report added that Trump had said talks with Iran were under way, despite the source denying any such communication.

The claims could not be independently verified, and there has been no immediate comment from US officials.

BREAKING: Iran issues a statement DENYING President Trump's post which claimed the US and Iran have had "productive conversations" to end the Iran War:

Iran says:

1. "There has been no indirect or direct contact with President Trump"

2. President Trump is trying to "buy time"…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 23, 2026

how it'll be possible to reverse-ferret from this position

Hoping that "reverse-feeret position" isn't something my wife wants us to try tonight

At 7:04 AM ET today, President Trump said “the US and Iran have had productive discussions" to end the Iran War.

By 7:10 AM ET, the S&P 500 surged +240 points adding +$2 TRILLION in market cap.

27 minutes later, Iran completely denied all of President Trump's claims and said there has been "no contact" with the US.

By 8:00 AM ET. the S&P 500 had fallen -120 points erasing -$1 trillion in market cap.

That's a $3 TRILLION swing market cap in 56 minutes, just in the S&P 500.

It's insane how the mad king's words can flex markets in the trillions range.

More market manipulation lol

At some point you’d think some of these smart money people would get tired of holding on to his every word like it means anything

It's insane how the mad king's words can flex markets in the trillions range.

― calzino, Monday, 23 March 2026 bookmarkflaglink

More market manipulation lol

― (•̪●) (carne asada), Monday, 23 March 2026 bookmarkflaglink

Market as a site for manipulation as a feature of the system.

I will always recall how weeks and weeks of Market speculation led to Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" statement to stabilize the Euro. Seen as a masterstroke by the elitea at the time. Nobody back then saw it as a crazy how a mere statement meant poverty for millions in Southern Europe, or that if words can move markets one way by a technocrat in power then unstable words by another powerful man can zig zag markets like its happening now.

Very serious people, much expert, so stability

lol look at how CBS couches these poll results. Scroll down far enough and you get that only 40% approve of the war and 60% disapprove, 57% think it's going badly, 68% think Trump hasn't clearly explained goals, and the top priority for 92% is to end it as quickly as possible. But because of one question, where 53% say it wouldn't be acceptable to end with the current Iran regime in power, the article/analysis does a huge amount of throat-clearing and brow-furrowing about how Americans are divided on the war and don't want it to end with regime still in power.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion-poll-iran-war-regime-2028-03-22/

Thanks, Bari!

53% say it wouldn't be acceptable to end with the current Iran regime in power

this alone speaks loudly to the lack of informed opinion within the US public. any serious attempt at accomplishing this would require the kind of massive commitment of the proverbial 'blood and treasure' that almost no one in the US has the slightest appetite for. that 53% don't understand what they are asking for.

That 53% would dwindle to nothing if there were a wartime tax levied to pay for it. Scott Bessent was asked about raising taxes and he said that was a stupid suggestion.

another TACO moment

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf:

"Our people demand the complete and humiliating punishment of the aggressors. All officials stand firmly behind their Leader and people until this goal is achieved.

No negotiations with the US have taken place. This fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets and to escape the quagmire that the US and Israel are trapped in."

No negotiations with the US have taken place. This fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets and to escape the quagmire that the US and Israel are trapped in."

and it working for now lol

There's an old adage in the markets, "buy on the rumor and sell on the fact". This makes Trump's market manipulation much easier. All it gets him is a day or two of good headlines, but more importantly, it muddies the narrative by injecting confusions and contradictions.

‪Emily Gorcenski‬
✧@em✧✧✧.gor✧✧✧.s✧✧‬
· 22m
One thing that would be great to learn is if everyone reads Trump’s tweets on Truth Social at the same time or if they are delayed by some minutes to all but a small group.

At some point you’d think some of these smart money people would get tired of holding on to his every word like it means anything

― (•̪●) (carne asada), Monday, March 23, 2026 11:47 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

It’s bots not people, it’s part of the reason why the swings are so massive and so quick. The algo trading computers that just look at charts have been added to by agentic traders that read the news.

reminds me of the William Gibson book that revolves around how to get a few seconds ahead on market predictions

I think back in the 80s they used to arrest people for this type of stuff.

hey yall multiple atomic bombs were just dropped

source: people i trust

reports of bombs in the air right now over all countries

it's just as i always said. i knew this was going to happen. i'm just glad i was one of the first people to spread the news

I wanna be a part of it

@grok Is this true?

ah shit, i'm hearing reports from other people i trust that all of this is a lie

glad to hear it, glad i was wrong on that one! let's see, what do i do now...i could reassess my own value as someone who wants to be the very first person to report any news that aligns with what i want, or...i could double down

double down, no learning, full speed ahead

let's quadruple down actually, like, for the next two huge mistakes i make in a row, and if that doesn't work i will double down again until i'm right

thats why gambling is the best addiction. if you indulge it enough you could actually solve all your problems. imagine if an entire country was run that way.

In the future we'll all be otm for fifteen minutes

If I can make it there

double down, no learning, full speed ahead

let's quadruple down actually, like, for the next two huge mistakes i make in a row, and if that doesn't work i will double down again until i'm right

― z_tbd, Monday, 23 March 2026 bookmarkflaglink

If the President of the US is doing why not its subjects (bots)

It's up to you

New York, New York

Uhh, it's my girlfriend in Niagara Falls, you guys wouldn't know her

The president said his top envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spoke with their Iranian counterparts on Sunday.

However, Trump declined to say to whom Witkoff was speaking, saying he did not want them to be killed.

“Nobody wants that job right now. Nobody’s exactly looking forward to being the head of that particular country, but perhaps we’ll be able to solve that problem,” he said.

hey yall multiple atomic bombs were just dropped

OK but if this was actually true, do I buy or sell? I need information I can act on!

From the Financial Times:

Traders made bets worth half a billion dollars in the oil market about 15 minutes before Donald Trump’s post touting “productive” talks with Iran sent the price of crude tumbling and ignited volatility in other assets.

Roughly 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands between 6.49am and 6.50am New York time on Monday, just a quarter of an hour ahead of the US president’s post on Truth Social that there had in recent days been “productive conversations” with Tehran to end the war in Iran. The notional value of those trades was $580mn, according to FT calculations based on Bloomberg data.

Trading volumes for Brent and WTI leapt at the same time, 27 seconds before 6.50am. Futures tracking the S&P 500 share index jumped in price moments after the oil trade, with volumes also rising significantly during that timeframe.

It was not known whether one entity or several entities were behind Monday’s trades.

Trump’s announcement at 7.04am triggered a sharp sell-off across global energy markets and jumps in S&P 500 stock index futures and European equities as investors dialled back bets of a prolonged conflict.

The well-timed trades echoed the flurry of large highly profitable bets made on prediction market Polymarket on the timing of the US’s attacks in recent months on Iran and Venezuela.

“It’s hard to prove causality . . . but you have to wonder who would have been relatively aggressive at selling futures at that point, 15 minutes before Trump’s post,” said a market strategist at a US broker, referring to Monday’s trades.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said: “The only focus of President Trump and Trump administration officials is doing what’s best for the American people.”