Hands off Iran!

Iran substitute 'The US'.

when are "we" going after the saudis anyway? i mean, that really actually is where al-quaeda is from, and it's a dictatorship with a bad human rights record, what am i missing here?

And they did such a good job when they tried that with the EU.
Hey, Brain! What are we going to do today? - The same thing we do every day, Pinky.

1. 'Iran's... government... poses a big problem for the United States and should be replaced, lawmakers said Sunday.'

2. South Korea's government poses a big problem for North Korea and should be replaced, Kim Jong-il said Sunday.

3. Britain is a 'failed state' living in the shadow of the US and would be better administered from Berlin, said Chancellor Schroeder yesterday.

4. The government of Greenland is out of touch with the wishes of the people and will be replaced at the next general election, said the people of Greenland.

That's right, it's 4 which is hopelessly idealistic and out of touch with present realities.

if anything the white house line in that slate article is MORE muted and LESS firebreathing, esp.given the scale of the victory being claimed in iraq (ie it actually — slightly — reflects acknowledgment of the difficulties ahead) (ok perhaps that's reading a lot into "that's hard", but the fact that they've stepped back from "we can now do anything" is a step AWAY from yr worst case, isn't it?)

What's so disheartening is that even the Democratic position is so far right:

'Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., a Democratic presidential hopeful who strongly backed the Iraq war, said "regime change" is the answer in Iran. He said he was not suggesting U.S. military action because of the pro-American attitudes of many Iranians.'

Which seems to imply that the fact that Iranians are not 100% anti-American is the only thing keeping the tanks from rolling into Teheran.

? I'm not spotting your connection, especially since that involved a sitting Democratic president.

The U.S. tiptoes around the Saudis because they have oil.

(Insert Louie Armstrong song chorus here, with extreme sarcasm.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35772-2003May24.html

"It worked so well in Latin America":

In an interview in February with the Los Angeles Times, Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage drew a distinction between the confrontational approach the administration had taken with Iraq and North Korea and the approach it had adopted with Iran. "The axis of evil was a valid comment, [but] I would note there's one dramatic difference between Iran and the other two axes of evil, and that would be its democracy. [And] you approach a democracy differently," Armitage said.

At one of the meetings, in early January, the United States signaled that it would target the Iraq-based camps of the Mujaheddin-e Khalq (MEK), or People's Mujaheddin, a major group opposing the Iranian government.

The MEK soon became caught up in the policy struggle between the State Department and the Pentagon.

After the camps were bombed, the U.S. military arranged a cease-fire with the group, infuriating the Iranians. Some Pentagon officials, impressed by the military discipline and equipment of the thousands of MEK troops, began to envision them as a potential military force for use against Tehran, much like the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.

But the MEK is also listed as a terrorist organization by the State Department. Under pressure from State, the White House earlier this month ordered the Pentagon to disarm the MEK troops -- a decision that was secretly conveyed by U.S. officials to Iranian representatives at a meeting in Geneva on May 3.

The MEK is considered a terrorist organisation by the (merely conservative) State department and a group of Northern-Alliance-like freedom fighters by the (ultra-hawk) Pentagon. Their camps are bombed during the Iraq war, but then a truce is made with them. But this infuriates the Iran government and pushes the Iranian state ever-faster towards nuclear armament (because it's clear that's the only way not to be invaded, see N. Korea).

Meanwhile the White House orders the Pentagon to disarm the MEK (perhaps to start their make-over into legitimate democracy campaigners in Iran), effectively splitting the group into two factions: 'politicians' who seek legitimacy and 'guerillas' with a bloody agenda. (Like the IRA, and like the GOP.) Nine days later the Saudi Arabian suicide bombings happen -- and the implication is that it's a splinter group involving the MEK guerillas who didn't believe in becoming a tool for US overt/covert operations against Tehran.

there's some complicated conspiracy theory that somehow involves Bush I and Reagan in some ploy to prevent the release of the hostages before the 1980 election. I cannot remember how credible it is.

Momus - the statement that Joe Lieberman represents the "Democratic position" is either ignorant or disingenuous.

it is true, gotta make the war worse near the end of the week so you can lower the stock market on monday with positive news

Democracy Now!

Iran hit far more U.S. military targets across the Persian Gulf region than the Trump administration has acknowledged, with satellite images reviewed by The Washington Post showing damage to at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. bases.
Meanwhile, a new report by the Center for International Policy estimates the U.S. has spent nearly $72 billion dollars on the Iran War, or $1.2 billion dollars per day on average. That's nearly three times the amount of the Pentagon's official estimate

RADDATZ: We heard on Friday Rubio say you expected a response from Iran about a peace proposal. Why haven't you gotten one?

UN AMBASSADOR MIKE WALTZ: I think part of it is that their leadership has been so devastated and fractured

Trump admin folks back to these allegations while even CNN says:

US intelligence assesses that Iran’s new supreme leader is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence. The reports found that precise authority within a now-fractured regime remains unclear, but that Mojtaba Khamenei is likely helping direct how Iran is managing negotiations with the US to end the war.

Khamenei has not been seen in public since he sustained serious injuries during an attack that killed his father and several of the country’s top military leaders at the beginning of the war, leading to speculation about his health and role in the Iranian leadership structure...Part of the uncertainty stems from Khamenei not using any electronics to communicate, instead only interacting with those who can visit him in-person or by sending messages via a courier, one of the sources added.

Khamenei remains isolated as he continues to receive medical treatment for his injuries, including bad burns on one side of his body impacting his face, arm, torso, leg, the sources added.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/08/politics/iran-khamenei-us-deal-intelligence

Did the Iranian government ever confirm that Mojtaba Khamenei "sustained serious injuries during an attack that killed his father... including bad burns on one side of his body impacting his face, arm, torso, leg"? Or is all this reporting on his medical condition entirely dependent upon the US/Israeli government intelligence services?

Khamenei remains isolated

Would you say... increasingly isolated?

It seems obvious to me that the Iranian regime's best play is to keep Hormuz locked down until they extract major concessions from the USA. The Trump administration's has already conceded that Hormuz is effectively under Iranian control for the foreseeable future, no matter how hard they try to conceal this behind a barrage of lies and bluster.

For now the war has settled into a contest of wills, with Trump betting on his blockade and Iran betting that steeply rising US gas prices and overall inflation will prevail. The US military options beyond the blockade are so bad that only desperation can make them look worth trying, but Trump is stupid, impatient, and vengeful he seems like the type to try military escalation in spite of its futility.

Iran’s Response to the U.S. Proposal: Deal or Renewed Conflict?

🔹According to multiple reports – including WSJ, Al-Mayadeen, and Tasnim – Tehran’s response to the U.S. proposal includes immediate end to the war; guarantees against renewed attacks; sanctions relief; lifting OFAC restrictions on oil exports; release of frozen assets; end of maritime pressure/blockade on Iran.

🔹Iran also reportedly links any agreement to de-escalation on other regional fronts, especially Lebanon. That suggests Tehran is treating the conflict as part of a broader regional security arrangement, and not just a bilateral issue.

🔹On Hormuz, Tehran has reportedly proposed phased reopening/stabilization of the strait in exchange for U.S. steps on sanctions, removing shipping restrictions, and de-escalation. In other words, Hormuz is treated as part of an eventual deal, and not a concession to make upfront.

🔹But the biggest challenge appears to be the nuclear file. Iran has reportedly rejected dismantling its nuclear infrastructure – as expected. Instead, it is willing to discuss limits, sequencing, monitoring, and addressing the concerns of its highly enriched uranium

🔹Reports also suggest Iran wants nuclear negotiations to continue during a 30-day follow-on phase AFTER an initial ceasefire/political understanding. That sequencing is probably one reason Trump reacted so negatively.

🔹From Tehran’s perspective, making irreversible concessions first would repeat the vulnerabilities exposed after the collapse of the JCPOA. That is why guarantees also reportedly became a major part of the Iranian response.

🔹Trump has called Iran’s response “inappropriate” and “unacceptable.” That sounds less like tactical dissatisfaction and more like rejection of the overall framework Tehran proposed.

🔹The timing also matters. Trump spoke with Netanyahu after receiving the Iranian response. The call highlights how closely the diplomatic and military tracks remain intertwined with Israeli calculations.

🔹At the same time, both Trump and Netanyahu made comments today that may indicate preparation for renewed escalation.

🔹Trump said the war is not necessarily over, only around “70%” of objectives were achieved, and indicating that more military moves may still be needed.

🔹Netanyahu also suggested that the job is not done because Iran still has its nuclear program, still supports proxies, and still has ballistic missiles.

🔹That framing is important because those objectives go well beyond what Iran appears willing to negotiate away.

🔹Tehran’s apparent position is to preserve strategic infrastructure while negotiating de-escalation. But Israeli strategic objectives increasingly appear aimed at long-term rollback of Iran’s capabilities.

🔹That mismatch is becoming more dangerous. The atmosphere now increasingly resembles coercive diplomacy backed by preparation for renewed conflict. Both sides still seem to believe additional pressure could improve their position.

🔹Iranian military signaling today may reflect the same assessment. Warnings from IRGC naval and aerospace commanders, issued around the time Tehran submitted its response, may have been intended as deterrent messaging ahead of a possible new escalation cycle.

🔹Overall, the trajectory is clearly becoming more unstable because the two sides appear to be negotiating toward fundamentally different end states.

It seems increasingly likely that the US and Israel will renew their full-scale war on Iran. There is little indication they have the resources to achieve more than they already have, or even to undo the strategic damage they have inflicted on themselves since 28 February.

It seems likely that the biggest casualties of a renewed war will be neither Iran nor Israel, but rather the Arab states on the Persian Gulf.

Israel is likely to view such destruction as a net benefit. But if the Arab states lose their value to Washington, and if the US is additionally forced into strategic retreat, that also means Israel's value as a US proxy is sharply diminished

Early April news out now

The United Arab Emirates carried out military strikes on Iran, making it the only other country to join the United States and Israel in its war against the Islamic Republic, according to a report on Monday.

The strikes, which the UAE has not publicly acknowledged, included an attack on a refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The attack took place in early April, the report said, which said it was around the time US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, but did not specify if it was before or after the declaration.

It’s the coalition is the willing

Snack maker Calbee's packages go black and white amid Iran war ink crunch

https://asia.nikkei.com/business/food-beverage/snack-maker-calbee-s-packages-go-black-and-white-amid-iran-war-ink-crunch

Snack maker Calbee's packages go black and white amid Iran war ink crunch

https://asia.nikkei.com/business/food-beverage/snack-maker-calbee-s-packages-go-black-and-white-amid-iran-war-ink-crunch

Pentagon prepares 'Operation Sledgehammer' to renew war powers after Donald Trump's epic Fury plan fails

Meet the new war, same as the old war

To be followed in sixty days by Operation Corpse Heap.

You could have a steam train
If you just lay down your tracks

thought Hegseth looked a bit like David Rasche

If you rebrand the war every 60 days it’s a new war, right?

Yeah that’s their reasoning behind it

To be followed in sixty days by Operation Corpse Heap.

just before that though, there is “There is Definitely Peace and We’re Not Planning to Immediately Jump Straight Into The War”, where hegseth and rubio have no possible idea why congress thinks there is going a war that is supposed to be authorized after 60 days, when there is clearly no war happening at all, the united states is just in “ready mode"

xp

I must say, this thread is much easier to read these days. I look at it every morning and compare its sources wit what I see in American newspapers and wire services.

I will say this is the weirdest war the U.S. has been in in my lifetime, in the sense that it may or may not be going on at any given time.

Like the Gulf War in 1991 but longer.

Did that one ever end?

In his testimony, Admiral Cooper described the prevention of civilian deaths on the battlefield as “a matter that I’m passionate about.” But he also conceded that his staff had not investigated any of the incidents documented by The Times or human rights groups….

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has terminated dozens of positions across the Pentagon and the major U.S. combatant commands that focus on civilian deaths. Most of these positions worked under the umbrella of the Pentagon’s Civilian Harm Mitigation Response office, which was created by Lloyd J. Austin III, Mr. Hegseth’s predecessor.

Admiral Cooper said that the team focused on civilian casualties at U.S. Central Command had shrunk from 10 officers to just one over the past year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/us/politics/civilian-deaths-strikes-iran.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ilA.4kz5.K4lCw9yZ1bKr&smid=nytcore-ios-share

Wasn't sure whether to put this in this thread or the US-economy-dying thread, but an internal AutoZone memo is circulating saying that they're expecting their supply of lubricating fluids (motor oil) to decrease by 40% very soon.

https://www.ft.com/content/f636f726-b185-4f6a-91d2-75ea3d1b9beb?syn-25a6b1a6=1

And this is from a JPMorgan Briefing

Even so, not every barrel can be drawn. Out of the 8.4 billion barrels in global inventories, we estimate only 0.8 billion barrels are realistically available without pushing the system into operational stress. As of April 23, roughly 280 million barrels have already been consumed to cushion the impact of the conflict. On paper, that still suggests comfortable buffers. In practice, the picture is more complicated. Floating storage can be tapped quickly, but only a slice of onshore inventories-
-around 580 million
barrels—is readily accessible. The rest is effectively locked up in pipeline fills, minimum tank levels, and other operational constraints.

This is why inventory floors matter. A market can still hold hundreds of millions of barrels, and yet become fragile once working stocks fall too low. Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation. Pipelines lose pressure flexibility, terminals cannot load efficiently, refiners struggle to secure the right grades on time, and traders bid aggressively for nearby supply. The system does not fail because oil disappears, it fails because the circulation network no longer has enough working volume. The same principle applies to refined products. Product inventories are somewhat more flexible than crude, but a meaningful portion must still be maintained as a strategic and operational buffer-particularly to support critical sectors such as transportation and aviation.

and Ukraine is knocking the shit out of Russian refineries

See Trump has had another request from [insert name of state here] so he's not attacking/wiping Iran off the map now ;-)

now I imagine he’s doing this as much to annoy Hegseth as anything

Trump has exhausted his bag of negotiating tricks. They aren't working on Iran's leaders, who do have a plan and know it is a good one. I predict he will continue to cycle through all the ploys he's used so far, while waiting for something new to happen. He won't change a thing he's doing even though his current course has proved incapable of producing any progress to a resolution; it only deepens the disaster and causes pointless pain and misery for countless millions everywhere. Trump won't feel the slightest need to make a new plan or try to end the stalemate. Pain and misery only matter if they are happening to him. Last week he literally said he doesn't give a single thought to the problems he is causing for ordinary people.

tl;dr we are fucked

the markets are pretty much done reacting to his bullshit anymore. He's totally stuck and like you said just waiting for something to happen that might change things.

like maybe a coronary

we already were fucked xxpost

well he got high on his own supply with the Venezuela thing, and rather than learn a lesson from all this, he'll likely do something stupid like invade Cuba so he can get an easy 'win'... they wanna look like big tough guys again

we already were fucked

sure. understood. but he is notably expanding the reach of "we" to cover ever-larger segments of the general population, both here in the USA and worldwide. welcome to "we", poor white supremacists.

Excerpt from NY Times on an a failed Israeli and Trump plan from the beginning of their war :

[i]Days after Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials in the opening salvos of the war, President Trump mused publicly that it would be best if “someone from within” Iran took over the country.

It turns out that the United States and Israel went into the conflict with a particular and very surprising someone in mind: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president known for his hard-line, anti-Israel and anti-American views.

But the audacious plan, developed by the Israelis and which Mr. Ahmadinejad had been consulted about, quickly went awry, according to the U.S. officials who were briefed on it.

Mr. Ahmadinejad was injured on the war’s first day by an Israeli strike at his home in Tehran that had been designed to free him from house arrest, the American officials and an associate of Mr. Ahmadinejad said. He survived the strike, they said, but after the near miss he became disillusioned with the regime change plan….[/]

Excerpt from NY Times on an a failed Israeli and Trump plan from the beginning of their war :

[i]Days after Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials in the opening salvos of the war, President Trump mused publicly that it would be best if “someone from within” Iran took over the country.

It turns out that the United States and Israel went into the conflict with a particular and very surprising someone in mind: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president known for his hard-line, anti-Israel and anti-American views.

But the audacious plan, developed by the Israelis and which Mr. Ahmadinejad had been consulted about, quickly went awry, according to the U.S. officials who were briefed on it.

Mr. Ahmadinejad was injured on the war’s first day by an Israeli strike at his home in Tehran that had been designed to free him from house arrest, the American officials and an associate of Mr. Ahmadinejad said. He survived the strike, they said, but after the near miss he became disillusioned with the regime change plan….[/]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/iran-israel-us-leader-ahmadinejad.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

This ever descending horror would make for an excellent satirical Armando Ianucci movie

i think if step one of your plan to install ahmadinejad as leader of iran is 'bomb him out of jail' you might well be on the wrong track

I'm sure the news that US/Israel consulted Ahmadinejad is going to work out great for him internally.

too soon Mike

Michael Bay is set to direct a military drama based on the recent rescue of two US crew members who crashed in Iran.

They will be played by Optimus Prime and Bumblebee.

ours cost $30 million, theirs cost like $2500 each

At least 42 U.S. military aircraft have been lost or damaged since the start of the war with Iran, according to a recent analysis that compiled news reports and officials’ statements to tally losses.... During the conflict, the U.S. has lost 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones, according to the Congressional Research Service. The drones cost about $30 million apiece and can carry as many as 16 Hellfire missiles.

I have some on sale for $350

Important #Iran developments in the past 24 hours:

🔹Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir is on his way to Tehran.

🔹The Pakistani prime minister will travel to China, probably conveying some Iran-related messages.

🔹Qatar has reportedly sent a negotiating team to Tehran, in coordination with the U.S., to help secure a deal.

🔹Tehran has been easing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Reportedly, 35 ships passed yesterday; the figures were 31 and 28 on the previous two days.

🔹Ghalibaf has appointed Esmaeil Baghaei, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, as the spokesman for the Iranian negotiating team.

wonder if Qatar sent their equivalent of Jared

Jared and Vance probably have been sent on a mission to Eric trumps wedding in the Bahamas hence the flurry of activity.