Meanwhile, over in Georgia

http://www.exile.ru/178/178010101.html

As for why I'm reading this thread...none of your fucking business. Or, more succinctly, because I am curious. Perhaps that doens't meet your distinguished qualifications (or am I supposed to brag about my neighbor who goes to Georgia 3-4 times a year for work) but then again, I don't feel the need to be a) interesting enough to gain your subjective approval or b) care if you care.

And while I enjoy Ed's intellect (and he's a Mac dude so he starts off a lot higher in the ranking than mose) from time to time, I don't blindly follow his pontifications every which way. He's right sometimes and he's wrong others. Same with Blount. I realize you want to blanket Ed with authority on this issue but unfortunately, some of us will be happy to watch the issue actually unfold. Can't you find some other thread to shit on?

If there is a news topic I feel it important to cite a connection or personal stake in something as a matter of 'declared interest' - if you think that's a brag you're insecure, so please don't take it out on me. Although he's my boyfriend, Ed has actually earned my respect for his knowledge in this area - I don't 'blindly follow his pontifications every which way'.

As for this inane series of posts, I only care enough to yank your chain. Which was so unimpressively easy that I have to say it is now...boring. See ya 'round, Suzy.

(Back to tonight's action in Tblisi for y'all and bed for me)

A TV producer in Tbilisi reports on the situation

Anybody as creeped out by the whole South Ossetia thing as I am?

The South Ossetians, presumably

Uh, okay...

Serious answer: it's pretty disturbing. Things could get really ugly, really fast, and much as one hopes the powers that be will let their economic interests trump their sabre-rattling, sometimes shit gets out of hand.

xpost

I'm not sympathetic to either side, here.

If anything, Georgia's behavior seems to be the more questionable of the two, but that all depends on whether Han Russia shot first.

yeah, bad behavior all around. timing it during the Olympics is such a classic shitbag move ("no one's looking! let's kill some people!")

I tend to agree but they're both behaving like swine.

Interestingly, the Ossetians' ancestors, the Alans (who accompanied the Vandals into Gaul and settled in Portugal) are also ancestors of the Serbs.

I'm no apologist for Russia, but the more I think about it, the more likely it seems to me that Georgia struck first. Given that Russia has extended citizenship to most of South Ossetia, I'd imagine they see themselves as legally obliged to defend the area. (Whether or not that's also a handy prextext in realpolitik terms is, of course, another thing entirely.)

Georgian Foreign Ministry website's been amusingly hacked: http://www.mfa.gov.ge

A terrible situation, but not all surprising ... on the upside, for the West it is useful as it bodes well for perhaps strengthening or locking down HEU. Georgia has always been the weakest link in nuclear proliferation due to geography and political climate (i.e. Georgia currently is a 2.x on CPI) and both the United States and Russia have been at loss about what to due about the northern border (including South Ossetia), so in the least it offers a opportunity for greater global security if annexation occurs.

I don’t want to say too much (to save myself from looking like an ass) but while contemporary politics would suggest this is about annexation I believe this is political maneuvering on Russia’s part to put Saakashvili in the spotlight (which is obviously not in his best interest). It should be said, Saakashvili has fewer friends in the West than Putin and if an overthrow is intended this was the way to do it (at least from a strategic POV).

I live in georegia but i dont see rusia no where not even sound but they says theres tanks should i be worrie

"Nø need to fear the Russians. The Havarti Quesadilla Revolutionary Årmy is the real menace. The south will be reclaimed. Long live the Dano-Mex revølution. Long Live Knud Gonzales, the river to his people."

haha jon

might be a troll but stil a+

might be a troll

You think?

yeah, bad behavior all around. timing it during the Olympics is such a classic shitbag move ("no one's looking! let's kill some people!")

-- Shakey Mo Collier, Friday, 8 August 2008 18:54 (2 hours ago) Link

It's never a good time.

Quite a good article in tomorrow's Times. There doesn't seem to be much doubt that this is the big one.

I was in Georgia a month ago and read about the South Ossetia / Abkhazia situations. I remember thinking to myself "see, there are always a million potential flashpoints that seem really serious but never really go off" and smugly imagined myself as thinking like a seasoned diplomat.

Oops.

Richard Holbrooke, the former American ambassador to the United Nations, said that Russia’s aims in the escalating conflict were clear. “They have two goals,” he said. “To do a creeping annexation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and, secondly, to overthrow Saakashvili, who is a tremendous thorn in their side.”

xpost

The idea is that with Russia out there conducting its rogue war, when the US invades Iran, Russia wouldn't be a credible voice to oppose the US attack. (As far as I followed it.)

If it does kick off in Iran, no-one is going to give two hoots what Russia might or might not be up to in Georgia

I don't know what to make of all this.

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/08/13/did-karl-rove-chat-to-saakashvili-about-south-ossetia-too/

Did Karl Rove Chat to Saakashvili about South Ossetia Too?
By: emptywheel Wednesday August 13, 2008 12:41 pm
42
diggs
digg it

The White House has started to panic over a July 9 meeting between Condi Rice and Mikheil Saakashvili, desperate to suggest they didn't encourage Georgia's crack-down in South Ossetia. Given that panic, I wonder whether Karl Rove had any similar chats with Saakashvili when they were in Yalta together just days later?

Now, there's been a lot of justified chatter about the role of Randy Scheunemann, who appears to be advising the Republic of Georgia at the same time as he provides campaign advice to John McCain.

Sen. John McCain's top foreign policy adviser prepped his boss for an April 17 phone call with the president of Georgia and then helped the presumptive Republican presidential nominee prepare a strong statement of support for the fledgling republic.

The day of the call, a lobbying firm partly owned by the adviser, Randy Scheunemann, signed a $200,000 contract to continue providing strategic advice to the Georgian government in Washington.

Given the way McCain has boasted of his frequent calls to Saakashvili in attempts to reclaim the mantle of the best international leader, it raises questions of whether the Administration's "see no evil" approach to Georgia was part of a deliberate campaign strategy.

Particularly when you consider the fact that Karl Rove may have met with Saakashvili just days after the July 9 private dinner between Condi and Saakashvili that the White House, State, and DOD are now panicking about. Rove was in the neighborhood, in Yalta, at a conference with Saakashvili three days after the meeting (h/t brendanx).

Anything to win an election, right? I don't know.

"Rove was at the Y.E.S. (Yalta European Strategy) conference. Along with Tony Blair, Mikulas Dzurinda, Aleksander Kwasniewski, William Taylor, and a couple hundred of their closest friends."

http://www.yes-ukraine.org/

Anyway, the $200,000 fee for lobbying on behalf of Georgia by Scheunemann is no conspiracy theory. But the guy has a great resume: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/06/17/randy_scheunemann_mccain_advis.html

McCain's connections to Saakasvili are well known to those who are paying attention and I wouldn't put it past McCain (or rather, his advisers) to have a plan beforehand to exploit this to their mutual benefit.

Thx Mitya for responding to Ned's question.

More on this fiasco's perception in Russia. From a Czech paper:

http://www.tol.cz/look/TOL/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=282&NrSection=2&NrArticle=19850

The highly emotional media coverage of the conflict has helped to inflame public opinion. Most of those polled by the Russian media hold the view that the conflict was a provocation on the side of the United States, the country that they believe "perceives Russia as its main competitor."

According to a recent poll conducted by the influential nationwide polling agency VTSIOM, every fourth Russian sees the United States as an enemy. Similarly, 25 percent see Georgia in the same way. Other states in Russia’s “axis of evil” include Ukraine and the Baltic nations.

"The way that the West tries to present Russia in the conflict in Southern Ossetia has one major goal: the talk is about changing the charter of the United Nations, where Russia is one of five countries who have the veto right," St. Petersburg lawyer Igor Kalinin told me in a street poll this week. "There’s no legal mechanism to deprive us of this right, therefore everything is being done to discredit Russia and to change the charter. Today, the world is balanced by that charter.

....

Sergei Shelin, a St. Petersburg-based political analyst, said the result of the crisis in South Ossetia would be “the irreversible secession of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia.”

Perhaps predictably, most of those Russians who have access to Western television channels and agency reports tend to disdain the foreign coverage as "anti-Russian propaganda."

Many Russians blame the United States much more than Georgia. As Mikhail Romadov, a theology student, said in a street poll, Russia and Georgia, as nations, are not enemies. "These two nations are friendly and Orthodox," he said. "Therefore, I think this conflict is in the interest of the world’s major powers, who are not interested in having Russia as a strong economic and political rival.”

>McCain's connections to Saakasvili are well known to those who are paying attention and I wouldn't put it past McCain (or rather, his advisers) to have a plan beforehand to exploit this to their mutual benefit.

A plan is one thing but I think Russia called McCain/Sakaashvili/Scheunemann's bluff.

I wouldn't put anything past Karl Rove

anti-American sentiment in Russia dies hard I see.

seriously most Americans don't give two shits about Russia anymore. Standard narrative is "we won the Cold War and now they love our jeans and rock n roll, those crazy drunken commies!"

>seriously most Americans don't give two shits about Russia anymore

Which is perhaps why desperate Republicans didn't think anything of engineering a crisis on the *one* issue (foreign policy) McCain has consistently polled ahead of Obama on (by up to 20 points). Yet just like with Iraq (Scheunemann miscalculated there as well, if you read the resume link) they underplayed the consequences

And now Putin has served check mate, and it is a crisis. I don't think Bush was anticipating the tanks moving towards Tblisi, at that volley ball game

Bush is probably drunk 24/7 these days, I doubt he's anticipating much of anything

Or maybe this was partially stage-managed by the Russians? Whatever the case, for this to start at the beginning of the Olympics is no coincidence

x-post Bush is probably drunk in anticipation that he'll get to go back to the ranch after all these years of being center-stage

These conspiracy theories ... it's like the US has become Israel all of a sudden

so russia is "moving around" in georgia. anyone think they're planning an occupation of the whole country? or are they just trying to pull the "irregulars" into line, to stop future flare-ups? (like they say)?

still kinda shook

It's getting colder out there: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080814/pl_nm/shield_poland_dc

U.S. and Poland sign missile shield deal

WARSAW (Reuters) - Poland finally agreed on Thursday to host elements of U.S. global anti-missile system on its territory after Washington improved the terms of the deal amid the Georgia crisis.

---

RUSSIA VEHEMENTLY OPPOSED

If everything goes to schedule, the interceptor base would be ready by around 2012, officials have said. The Czechs have already signed an agreement to host the radar although parliament there must ratify it.

Russia has vehemently opposed placing the shield installations in central Europe, saying they would threaten its security and upset the post-Cold War balance of power in Europe.

Washington reiterated on Thursday this was not the case.

"In no way is the (U.S.) president's plan for missile defense aimed at Russia," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said. "The purpose of missile defense is to protect our European allies from any rogue threats."

Moscow has threatened to take retaliatory steps against Poland and the Czech Republic, its former reluctant vassals who are now part of the European Union and NATO.

---

"rare success"

Russia has also been angered by Poland's strong verbal support for Georgia.

The shield deal, if approved by parliaments in Prague and Warsaw, will be a rare success for President George W. Bush who has argued it is essential to contain the threat of a potentially nuclear-armed Iran.

Washington hopes the shield might persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program, although Teheran says it wants to develop nuclear energy only to generate electricity and not to make nuclear weapons.

Not sure how this snuck into the press, but one of my (reliable) friends reported reading in a story today that a Russian regular army soldier - a Chechen, in fact - said that his unit had been in South Ossetia for months (i.e. Russia had planned for this eventuality).

http://osinform.ru/foto/7787-vojjna-v-juzhnojj-osetii-89-fotografijj.html

Thanks. Some of those are none too pretty. Funny how you can know how that's what war's all about, but not really think of 'til you see the pictures

Kremlin announces that South Ossetia will join 'one united Russian state' says the Times. It's pretty brazen stuff now by Russia. The backstory seems to be shifting slightly day by day too, so that what initially seemed a crazy gamble by Saakashvili now looks more like a last-ditch attempt to pre-empt an imminent invasion that was going to happen anyway - exactly what Mitya said three posts above

saakashvili met this girl at the vancouver olympics and made her the georgian economy minister! she was in my grad class!

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/28/georgian-minister-rues-nightclub-photo/

╔══════════════ ೋღ☃ღೋ ══════════════╗
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Repost this if ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ you are a beautiful strong black woman ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ who don’t need no man ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
╚══════════════ ೋღ☃ღೋ ══════════════╝

― jaxon, Wednesday, 5 October 2011 04:13 (18 hours ago)

Uh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYHLHTUSwU0

^^ that is Ivanishvili's son rapping about (I think) Georgian Dream, his eccentric billionaire father's political movement.

Not sure what to make of Georgian Dream. Saakashvili is fairly widely discredited but Ivanishvili's alliance seems to be held together by little more than his personality / cash.

Yeah, shit is bananas over there. I heard something about a horrible prison rape scandal, but haven't read much about it.

opening chords sound like "Bye Bye Bye"

His lipgloss is something else. Apparently there is a Saakashvili supported rapper who Bera has beefed with publicly.

Kakha Kaladze appears to be Deputy Prime Minister now!

Wow. Apparently they're going with the "invite all the cool kids to the party" approach?

There appears to have been a coup / revolution, of sorts, in Abkhazia. Protesters have taken over government buildings, the President has fled and the government has resigned. It's not entirely clear what their objective is at the moment.

Twitter now being used for pass-agg diplomacy:

Carl Bildt
‏@carlbildt

If @PrimeMinisterGE does not want to listen to the best friends of his country in EU that’s his choice. We take note. @LinkeviciusL

Bildt - Swedish Foreign Minister
PrimeMinisterGE - PM of Georgia
Linkevicius - Lithuanian Foreign Minister

Context: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/07/saakashvili_doesnt_need_a_little_help_from_his_friends

წყლის ჭავლი pic.twitter.com/0BOZzjYtHc

— Rezo 🇬🇪 (@RezoBear) March 7, 2023

The first inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh have reached Armenia. Nearly the entirety of the population - 120,000 people - are expected to leave the territory as Azerbaijan takes control. https://t.co/ok1Wz2JLeb

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) September 24, 2023

The President of the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Samvel Shahramanyan, has signed a degree on its dissolution, effective immediately. The Republic is no more. https://t.co/pyIszJ8tBU

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) September 28, 2023

auto-correct doesn't know about decrees?

That's right. Knowing how to spell doesn't make you less of a shit.

grumpy much today, xyzzzz?

Spare us the posts where you feel you are "hated" by some on here, or you made to feel "less than human".

That's all I'll say.

Protests escalating again

HappeningNow: #Tbilisi’s main avenue is packed with tens of thousands of people protesting against the #RussianLaw.
People keep coming irrespective of tear gas and rubber bullets.#NoToOligarch #Ivanishvili pic.twitter.com/MPghQQKdQS

— Giorgi Oniani (@OnianiG) May 1, 2024

This is Tbilisi. Heart of Europe. 10:25 pic.twitter.com/vciUS2gyeq

— Nodar Rukhadze (@xonoda) May 2, 2024

A lot of conflicting reports on just how big these crowds are but certainly appear to be growing

Fascinating to see!

Yeah, good for them... hope it's not another Belarus situation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5lEcJCJec0

Further footage here

Yeah, good for them... hope it's not another Belarus situation

Has something of a Maidan feel, with the arrival of Titushky as well, though so far small in number

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CB1S7d91fLk

Starting to look like Maidan

Chichinadze street side of the parliament right now. Police pushed people here and stopped for now. pic.twitter.com/bRJ853bcKk

— Mariam Nikuradze (@mari_nikuradze) May 13, 2024

What foreigners and the Vake/youth liberal bubble needs to understand is this:

YES. Most (but not all) of the country is on their side on the Russian law

YES. 80%+ are pro-EU

YES. Almost everyone hates Russia

BUT....🧵 https://t.co/2Zb6PqIqYO

— Alex Scrivener - ალეკო სკრივენერი (@alscriv) May 17, 2024

Not exactly a counter-argument as such, but could be a broader picture on where the Georgian public as a whole is right, now. b