Predict the Next Pope

No he *didn't* ok

Except for that whole 'going to church all the time' thing.

How do you know? He could start ripping off his clothes and drooling during his next live appearance and then *that* would be your last mental image of him.

Or maybe just hookers.

I don't think they're gonna go back to a conservative - they may stay the course or go liberal.

x-post: Ned, that's nothing. Where I live, I've seen shop signs that bear names with no vowels in 'em.

But he doesn't fall neatly into conservative or liberal, not because he's a moderate or a uniter, not a divider, but because his speeches and public appearances are liberal -- and his policies, and the policies of the papal offices in general, are conservative.

So if it swings, which way do you go? Do you swing the public appearance, and go for a Pope who encourages a more conservative stance? Many old school Catholics in power want that, particularly in Europe. Do you swing at the policy level, and go for someone who'll bring things back in the direction of Vatican II -- maybe motivated by clerical attrition and the fact that most Catholics are more liberal than the ones currently in power?

But even the swing tendency could be inaccurate now; the voting makeup of the College is unlike it's ever been, and I'm not sure it'll be clear until after the fact how that'll affect the election.

The following Roman Catholic leaders head the list of likely candidates to succeed Pope John Paul II, who was elected in 1978 and next month will become the third longest-serving pontiff in history.

• Francis Arinze, 71, a Vatican-based Nigerian who is admired for his efforts at interfaith dialogue. He serves as prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments, which reviews liturgical texts.

• Giovanni Battista Re, 70, an Italian who is a veteran of the Vatican diplomatic service and now heads the Congregation for Bishops, overseeing bishops around the world.

• Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 67, a soft-spoken intellectual from Argentina who takes mass transit rather than a chauffeur-driven limousine.

• Norberto Rivera Carrera, 61, archbishop of Mexico City and an important voice in Latin America. Carrera, a progressive on social issues, is doctrinally conservative.

• Godfried DanNeels, 70, archbishop of Belgium and a leading voice in the European church. He is a moderate who supports greater democracy and chats with constituents on his Web site.

• Dario Castrillon Hoyos, 74, a Colombian national who heads the Congregation for the Clergy and is known for his advocacy on behalf of the poor.

• Claudio Hummes, 69, a Franciscan and archbishop of Sao Paulo, Brazil. He is a doctrinal conservative who supports decentralization by increasing the powers of national conferences of bishops.

• Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, 62, of Honduras, a rising star in the Latin American church whose youth might augur another long papacy and work against him.

• Christoph Schoenborn, 58, archbishop of Vienna, highly educated and a prolific author of religious works. Active in reconciliation effort with Orthodox Christianity.

• Angelo Scola, 62, patriarch of Venice, hometown of three 20th-century popes. He received his red cap in October and is viewed as a possible surprise candidate.

• Angelo Sodano, 76, an Italian who serves as the Vatican's secretary of state and is No. 2 in church hierarchy after the pope, taking on an increasingly visible role as the pope's health has limited his activities.

• Dionigi Tettamanzi, 69, archbishop of Milan and a moderate who many people believe is the front-runner among the Italian succession hopefuls.

(Greeley has written two pertinent books to this; the better of them, I forget the title, is a sociological study of American Catholics. The other's a novel about a papal election, White Smoke. His novels aren't as good, but it's fun. Kerry, you're probably familiar with Greeley, but if not, I think you'd like him.)

Some of those poll results also point out the split between the speaking JP2 and the acting JP2: I think the people he delegates to, like Cardinal Ratzinger, take a lot of the brunt for his most conservative stances, but I certainly think he's aware of what they're doing. (And he can be blatantly conservative himself when it comes to some things.)

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I haven't read the ones with the romance-looking covers either, so those I'm not sure of. White Smoke has romance elements, sort of -- the main character, a reporter covering the papal election, is separated from his wife (divorced? I forget; but not annulled, so still married according to the Church), and his mentor/friend Bishop Blackie (a character from other Greeley books) wants to reunite them. So there's a love interest, certainly, but that's not the thrust of the book. There's a Grisham-like thriller angle, too, which I think detracts from it somewhat -- but that's me, I'm automatically going to think that a story about a papal election has plenty of suspense as it is, without guns :)

Contract With An Angel is the kind of thing that could have been terrible "inspirational fiction" in many people's hands -- the conceit is "millionaire media mogul Raymond Neenan is visited by his guardian angel. Michael informs Neenan that his life is almost over and that he needs to make amends for mistreating people in his profit-centered existence, among them his wife; his estranged offspring, who hate him; and numerous business associates," flipping the whole "selling your soul to the devil thing" -- but the feel-good quotient isn't any higher than the average Oscar-season movie, and it's fun and clever rather than preachy, I think.

His nonfiction, his sociology stuff and writings on American Catholicism, is brilliant, and pretty accessible. He's really a Catholic writer first, novelist second, but the novels I've read are still fun.

My favourite priest was the Dancing Priest, but alas he's dead.

http://www.computerjargon.com/images/galleries/interestingfriends/pope.jpg

Arinze is basically the ultimate nightmare for liberal Catholics, right?