The Climate Change Threat (not the Pentagon study)

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So the recent Pentagon study (already discussed on this thread, which doesn't really deal with my question) can be read to conclude that the possibility of rapid climate change is higher than most scientists and nearly all politicians think. It proceeded, of course, on more extreme assumptions than most scientists are willing to make, in order to deal with a worst-case scenario. But scientists do generally agree that there is a distinct possibility of rapid climate change in our future. What I wonder is - are the strange weather events we see more and more frequently signs of such change, signs of less dramatic phenomena, or are we just paying more attention to events that have always occurred? And, outside of the defense arena, how do we respond to more likely possibilities?

Here's a collection of climate change resources. And Woods Hole's links. Also, a good popular take by a guy I know.

g@bbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 29 March 2004 17:42 (twenty-two years ago)

I bring it up, of course, because of the "First ever" (reported) South Atlantic hurricane, headed towards Brazil. Does this have anything to do with warming effects or the "conveyor belt"? Just because it's the first we know of doesn't mean that there were not such hurricanes prior to modern tracking methods. Are there writings about older storms in the south atlantic that might have been hurricanes? Apparently, at least one of the efforts to model hurricane formation has produced small numbers of south atlantic hurricanes. These were considered to be errors.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 29 March 2004 17:47 (twenty-two years ago)

You hate the idea of me having a panic-attack-free day, don't you?

Michael Daddino (epicharmus), Monday, 29 March 2004 17:48 (twenty-two years ago)

While I try not to dwell on this too much -- I had a grinding panic over environmental collapse back in the early nineties that lasted for about a month, not a state of mind I'd want to return to -- the possibilities here are such that while I'm a generally giddy optimist about things, I'm glad I don't have kids coming into this world.

That said, Gabbneb's core point is good -- have the effects gotten worse or is the reporting getting better?

Ned Raggett (Ned), Monday, 29 March 2004 17:49 (twenty-two years ago)

Apologies, Daddino

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 29 March 2004 17:50 (twenty-two years ago)

Ocean 'dead zones' a rising threat, UN agency warns

c. (synkro), Monday, 29 March 2004 18:08 (twenty-two years ago)

Is there a connection between "dead zones" and climate change?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 29 March 2004 18:16 (twenty-two years ago)

have the effects gotten worse or is the reporting getting better?

Good questions. I don't think there is a conclusive answer to either. Anecdotal evidence is pervasive and persuasive, given the way it is reported.

Plus, it's such a political issue. We don't know the source of climate change. We don't even have good enough measurements to conclusively deduce the significance of it. If there is change that is relevant, we don't know if there's anything we can do about it. Here are other links to consider:

SATELLITE
FINDS WARMING "RELATIVE" TO HUMIDITY


The Debate Is Warming Up

Urban heat, pollution found to mess up weather
Global Warming.org

don atwater weiner, Monday, 29 March 2004 18:38 (twenty-two years ago)

Is there a connection between "dead zones" and climate change?

According to this NSC page, yes: the disruptions in the nitrogen cycle contribute to both.

(Sorry Gabbeb, I don't have anything really helpful to add, just found the above widely-reported link a bit scary.)

c. (synkro), Monday, 29 March 2004 18:43 (twenty-two years ago)

And does global dimming have anything to do with this, either?

don atwater weiner, Monday, 29 March 2004 18:46 (twenty-two years ago)

Plus, it's such a political issue. We don't know the source of climate change

Whatever the cause of climate change, the record shows that it occurs regularly in the history of the earth. So, while there may be debates about why that is, and while those debates may be 'political' in nature or not often separated from political debates about whether at the moment humans are responsible for climate change, it would seem that the existence of the climate change cycles is not a political question. Whether current weather phenomena relate to them might be political. And I suppose that how to respond to such cycles, if at all, might be political.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 29 March 2004 19:07 (twenty-two years ago)

What I am trying to say is that the significance of changing climate (i.e. how much it has changed either now or then or in the future) and the impact of that change is a matter of interpretation and speculation. I assume that the vast majority of climate research is government-funded in one way or another, so by that factor alone it probably has a degree of political reliance for survival. And even in the rare cases that this sort of research isn't publically funded, there are still likely to be political forces at hand that could possibly be reflected (or not) in the results.

don atwater weiner, Monday, 29 March 2004 20:08 (twenty-two years ago)

three years pass...

I had a grinding panic over environmental collapse back in the early nineties that lasted for about a month

-- Ned Raggett (Ned), Monday, March 29, 2004 5:49 PM

i am right in the middle of one of these. the reporting seems to be reaching a more frightening pitch. glad to see it's become a bigger issue in the public consciousness, but given the stuff i'm reading these days, i don't have a lot of confidence in "consciousness" improving our future much.

btw the SMALL PLEASURES thread was totally started to counteract abovementioned grinding panic that's been in effect for like two weeks.

BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Sunday, 30 December 2007 08:54 (eighteen years ago)

four months pass...

Exciting times.

Kerm, Wednesday, 14 May 2008 19:11 (seventeen years ago)

five months pass...

So, how much credibility does James Lovelock have with current climate boffins? Because
according to him, it's not so much a 'tipping point' as an irredeemably steep slope. That
we've fallen off. And stuff like geo-engineering http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12052171 will not restore the balance that will exists.

Barunka Hussein O'Shaughnessy (Frogman Henry), Wednesday, 15 October 2008 10:57 (seventeen years ago)

*that exists

Barunka Hussein O'Shaughnessy (Frogman Henry), Wednesday, 15 October 2008 10:57 (seventeen years ago)

There was a useful piece on 'Revenge of Gaia' on RealClimate that puts Lovelock's arguments into context.

NickB, Wednesday, 15 October 2008 12:47 (seventeen years ago)

one month passes...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081201/wl_afp/italyfloodsweathervenice

gabbneb, Monday, 1 December 2008 17:45 (seventeen years ago)

Did we have Global Warming in 1966?

the worst incident on November 4, 1966, when the city was submerged by 1.94 metres of water amid catastrophic flooding throughout Italy.

slag move (onimo), Monday, 1 December 2008 17:50 (seventeen years ago)

Yes

gabbneb, Monday, 1 December 2008 17:56 (seventeen years ago)

I don't think this latest in a long line of floodings in a sinking city built on marsh is indicative of an increasing rate of climate change.

(I don't think Global Warming had Title Case in 1966)

slag move (onimo), Monday, 1 December 2008 18:00 (seventeen years ago)

acqua altas are caused by a number of factors. Their rate and size may be reflective of climate change, a phenomenon that began to take off in the 1940s and is generally recognized as a cause of rising sea levels that threaten Venice's existence.

gabbneb, Monday, 1 December 2008 18:04 (seventeen years ago)

http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Climate_juggernaut_on_the_horizon_U_12012008.html

gabbneb, Monday, 1 December 2008 18:53 (seventeen years ago)

Arctic ice has already passed tipping point, says James Hansen

gabbneb, Sunday, 7 December 2008 21:40 (seventeen years ago)

three years pass...

so in light of two hurricanes hitting the northeast coast of the US two years in a row, is it still too boring to talk about climate change?

reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, 30 October 2012 13:20 (thirteen years ago)

I prefer wringing my hands, as I can do this while watching television.

Aimless, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 17:58 (thirteen years ago)

six months pass...

The level of the most important heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, has passed a long-feared milestone, scientists reported on Friday, reaching a concentration not seen on the earth for millions of years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/11/science/earth/carbon-dioxide-level-passes-long-feared-milestone.html?hp

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 10 May 2013 19:29 (twelve years ago)

nine months pass...

Friend is involved in this, spreading the word:
http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/climate_confidential_beacon.php

Burt Stuntin (Hurting 2), Monday, 24 February 2014 20:28 (twelve years ago)

Seriously considering signing up for that.

eeeLuvium (Leee), Monday, 24 February 2014 21:46 (twelve years ago)

The person I know who's involved has already done a lot of really great work for the Times, Nat Geo, and other publications. I'm sure it will be good.

Burt Stuntin (Hurting 2), Monday, 24 February 2014 21:50 (twelve years ago)

six months pass...

Anyone else go to the march today? I was hungover but struggled though 10 blocks or so. A dearth of minorities. Felt a little guilty drinking out of a plastic water bottle.

calstars, Sunday, 21 September 2014 20:03 (eleven years ago)

Looked very much like yuppie UWS let's play activism for a day from where I was....they didn't even have a list of demands, right? Wish they'd have showed up instead for the rally earlier this month against police brutality, which had a better chance of changing something

Iago Galdston, Sunday, 21 September 2014 22:25 (eleven years ago)

were there food trucks there? i'll bet there were plenty of wacky costumes. oh how mirthful

brimstead, Monday, 22 September 2014 00:18 (eleven years ago)

exactly

Iago Galdston, Monday, 22 September 2014 00:25 (eleven years ago)

Self-righteous vegans (redundant?) with many charming signs: "STOP KILLING MY PLANET, CARNIVORES."

did see d selzer tho

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Monday, 22 September 2014 00:53 (eleven years ago)

i went today

it was a failure because people left trash behind. also i saw some people consuming products as they left the march. fucking hypocrites, all of them

Karl Malone, Monday, 22 September 2014 01:13 (eleven years ago)

the 1574 groups that participated in the march should have met beforehand and made a list of "demands". it would have been very easy to do that since all of the groups are united by the leadership of the Great Dragon Khanaed, High Lord of the New Kingdom.

Karl Malone, Monday, 22 September 2014 01:16 (eleven years ago)

and if the participating leaders of the UN Climate Summit don't comply with our demands, why then, why, why

I suppose Khanaed would blow fire on everyone and murder everyone

Karl Malone, Monday, 22 September 2014 01:17 (eleven years ago)

sorry, i'm actually just using this thread to respond to demoralizing things said by people on twitter, demoralizing mainly because they're people that i clicked the "follow" button at some point because i thought they weren't terrible selfish bastards

Karl Malone, Monday, 22 September 2014 01:19 (eleven years ago)

I saw the dr. Sorry I didn't stop and say hello. I was out of it. Walking along central park for hours was having the worst ever hay fever attack of my life. Saw lots of people stopping in mcdonalds, eating mcdonalds fries. I mean I don't give a shit but if you could hold off on the mcdonalds for one day, that would've been a good day.

dan selzer, Wednesday, 24 September 2014 14:36 (eleven years ago)

I was exhausted enough to be sitting on the curb, as you saw. Then I went to Astoria to replenish with Hou hsiao-Hsien.

Yeah, and all the fucking Starbucks cups.

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 24 September 2014 14:39 (eleven years ago)

ten years pass...

Good piece here: https://workingclassstories.substack.com/p/higher-ground

I interviewed her for my podcast a few months ago, she's a great writer, based in North Carolina.

These floods– Helene taking the leaves off trees and collapsing the highway, the breathtaking speed of water along the Guadalupe, the day after day soaking of tropical storms so frequent they are running into each other and I can’t keep track of their dates or names– they aren‘t just hitting the poorest of us, but now are pulling down the mountains under the Hillers and backing up the drains of Biltmore. They aren’t just the Buffalo Creek Disasters sending sludge down on the miners’ families and the brown water of Katrina swallowing up New Orleans, these storms are now creeping in on the millionaire’s mile and Mar-a-Lago, too.

I find myself hoping that all this water will be Biblical, washing over us as an equalizer, a reminder that all cars’ engines seize up when submerged, that the windows of shacks and mansions are both made of glass and a flash flood breaks through them the same. I think, maybe now, now that we are all scared, maybe now they will install the sirens, maybe now they will rebuild the dams, maybe now they will cap the carbon, maybe now they will protect public lands, maybe now they will preserve the forests, maybe now we will be reborn.

But they don’t.

paper plans (tipsy mothra), Monday, 14 July 2025 13:12 (eight months ago)

I try to ignore daily Trump news,for fear of my sanity. It's still too hard to reconcile with what I believe to be reality.

Stuff like this just slaps me it the head:

Climate report publication
The Trump administration will not publish the National Climate Assessment on the NASA website, despite previously indicating otherwise.

Legal and procedural requirements
A 1990 law requires the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to produce regular National Climate Assessments.

Changes to federal climate data
The administration stopped the publication of several climate-related resources. Earlier in the year, the EPA did not publish the annual report on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions required for the United Nations, and the database tracking costly extreme weather events was also discontinued.

nicky lo-fi, Tuesday, 15 July 2025 13:03 (eight months ago)

Climate stuff is where it feels most literally like they are just trying to kill everybody. Slashing solar/wind funding and cheerleading for MORE fossil fuel consumption, it is really hard to read as anything but some orgiastic death wish.

paper plans (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 15 July 2025 14:03 (eight months ago)


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