It's October 2004 in Iraq -- oh joy

Maybe I need to be clearer. The reason I believe things are dire in Iraq is pretty simple. The evidence is accumulating that the insurgency - fostered by Baathist thugs, al Qaeda murderers, and other Jihadists - is gaining traction. That would be a manageable problem if the population despised them and saw a way through to a better society. But the disorder and mayhem continues to delegitimize the Iraqi government and, by inference, the coalition occupation. And the inability or unwillingness of the U.S. to seal the borders or effectively counter the terror contributes to the general view that the insurgents are going to win, and therefore the notion that the U.S.-led liberation may make matters even worse than they were before. And this is a vicious cycle. In other words, one reason the insurgency is spreading is because it has tacit support or merely passive acceptance among the general population. And once the general population turns against an occupying power, then things get really ... Algerian. The key moment was probably when George W. Bush blinked in Fallujah. That was when the general population inferred that we were not prepared to win. It's amazing, really. This president has a reputation for toughness and resolution. Yet at arguably the most critical moment in this war, he gave in. He was for taking Fallujah before he was against it. I cannot believe the situation is beyond rescue. But this president's policies have made it much much more difficult than it might have been. Elections are now more vital than ever - because they are the sole means of gaining the advantage in the legitimacy stakes. With those must come a relentless guerrilla war against the enemy, a massive increase in troop levels (whether Iraqi or America), and a huge effort for reconstruction. But we have thrown away a year's worth of opportunity. By incompetence and lack of will. Fallujah was a kind of Dunkirk. And Bush is no Churchill.

I have to say I didn't think of an Algerian comparison until now, and historical differences in situation aside, it's a sharp call.

What a completely wacked out situation.

With Iraq becoming more and more unstable, Iran racing to get nuclear weapons, Afghanistan still completely unstable, the conflict between Sunnis/Shias in Pakistan, the border/ethnic conflict between Russia and Georgia and the rebels in Chechnya...that whole big region of the world seems like it is one really bad day away from turning into something much more ugly. That isn't even including the problems that could come up with Saudi Arabia and the conflict between Palistine/Israel.

Not so sharp. Dunkirk was a good event strategic for the British, a bad one for the Germans. The British army in France did not go into a German POW camp, although it left its heavy equipment, and lived to fight another day. The Wehrmacht and Hitler blew the shot.

Now, if he's comparing the Marine Expeditionary Force to the Wehrmacht and Bush & the Pentagon to Hitler and the OKW, it's still crippled. Because to make it parallel, he would have had to write:
"And Bush is no Hitler." And that wouldn't work because it would infer the opposite of what happened at Dunkirk -- that the Hun ordered the Wehrmacht to advance into Dunkirk immediately to crush the Tommies without leaving it to the Luftwaffe.

Pupil

Teacher

And yet, what's this? Along comes Mr. Pot to rebuke Mr. Kettle more than somewhat unconvincingly:

Vote Bush and Sharon

From: "Baghdad, USConsul"
To: "Baghdad, USConsul"
Subject: Warden Message
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2004 14:36:13 +0000

Warden Message - Increased Security Awareness within the International Zone

On October 5, 2004, at approximately 1 pm, U.S. Embassy security personnel discovered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) at the Green Zone Café. A U.S. Military Explosive Ordnance Detachment safely disarmed the IED.
American citizens living or working in the International Zone are strongly encouraged to take the following security precautions:

* Limit non-essential movement within the International Zone, especially at night.
* Travel in groups of two or more.
* Carry several means of communication.
* Avoid the Green Zone Café, the Chinese Restaurants, the Lone Star restaurant and Vendor Alley.
* Conduct physical fitness training within a compound perimeter.
* Notify office personnel or friends of your travel plans in the International Zone.
**** Conduct a thorough search of your vehicle prior to entering it.

Consular Section
US Embassy Baghdad

Thank you for your time as president, Mr. Bush. Your services will no longer be required.

Iraqi Kurds ready to fight for Kirkuk: Barzani
Tue Oct 12,10:34 AM ET
Mideast - AFP

ANKARA (AFP) - Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani said that the oil-rich city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq (news - web sites) had a Kurdish "identity" and vowed to fight any force attempting to oppress its people, whether Kurds or other ethnic groups.

Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), was speaking after talks in Ankara with Turkish leaders, who are worried that the Iraqi Kurds are plotting to take control of the city, which also has a large population of Turkmens, a community with Turkish roots...

Army probes actions of Rock Hill-based reserves

JOHN J. LUMPKIN

Associated Press

WASHINGTON - The Army is investigating reports that several members of a reservist supply unit in Iraq refused to go on a convoy mission, the military said Friday. Relatives of the soldiers said the troops considered the mission too dangerous.

The reservists are from the 343rd Quartermaster Company, which is based in Rock Hill, S.C. The unit delivers food and water in combat zones.

According to The Clarion-Ledger newspaper in Jackson, Miss., a platoon of 17 soldiers refused to go on a fuel supply mission Wednesday because their vehicles were in poor shape and they did not have a capable armed escort.

The paper cited interviews with family members of some of the soldiers, who said the soldiers had been confined after their refusals. The mission was carried out by other soldiers from the 343rd, which has at least 120 soldiers, the military said.

Convoys in Iraq are frequently subject to ambushes and roadside bombings.

A whole unit refusing to go on a mission in a war zone would be a significant breach of military discipline. A statement from the military's press center in Baghdad called the incident "isolated."

"The investigating team is currently in Tallil taking statements and interviewing those involved. This is an isolated incident and it is far too early in the investigation to speculate as to what happened, why it happened or any action that might be taken," the coalition press information center said in the statement, sent to The Associated Press in Washington.

In the statement, U.S. military officials said the commanding general of the 13th Corps Support Command had appointed his deputy commander to investigate the incident.

The statement did not confirm several aspects of the relatives' stories, including the number of soldiers involved and the reason they refused the mission.

The soldiers refused an order on Wednesday to go to Taji, Iraq - north of Baghdad - because their vehicles were considered extremely unsafe, Patricia McCook of Jackson, Miss., told The Clarion-Ledger. Her husband, Sgt. Larry O. McCook, was among those detained, she said, saying her husband had telephoned her from Iraq.

The platoon being held has troops from Alabama, Kentucky, North Carolina, Mississippi and South Carolina, said Teresa Hill of Dothan, Ala., who told the newspaper her daughter Amber McClenny is among those being detained.

Patricia McCook said her husband told her he did not feel comfortable taking his soldiers on another trip.

"He told me that three of the vehicles they were to use were 'deadlines' ... not safe to go in a hotbed like that," she said, according to the newspaper.