October 10, 2004: “This time, friends, I have some very important news for all of you. Unlike the usual silly gossip that goes on around the White House, intermingled with loud praying, this is really news. We are about to embark on another war! Yes, it has been decided and carefully planned. Who are we going to war with? Iran.
Thesis: Iran hates the United States and Israel. Iran has atomic weapons and missiles (the Shahab, courtesy of North Korean/Russian technicians) It can easily reach Tel Aviv. It can also reach US troop concentrations in Iraq. Israel is scared shitless. Their pressure groups have leaned on the White House, with a great deal of assistance from Cheney and the Neocons. The actual plan is this:
The U.S. has no troops available for an Iranian adventure and the Israelis would rather not lose any warm bodies so…it has been firmly decided that both Israel and the U.S. will launch a surprise attack against 1., Iranian missile sites, 2. Iranian nuclear facilities and 3. the leadership of Iran located in and around Tehran. How will this be done? By aircraft attack using U.S. developed “smart bombs” and the so-called “bunker-buster” bombs designed to destroy underground reinforced concrete facilities .We just sent these to Israel. Because of the political ramifications, the Israelis will conduct the main strikes, supported by U.S. aircraft as needed. The aim will be to wipe out any vestige of nuclear weaponry, its delivery system and all the Iranian leaders capable of starting any attacks on Israel
Since it would be a problem for Israeli Air Force units to fly round trip from Israel, the solution will be to launch these attacks from U.S. aircraft carriers located in the Persian Gulf area. As I write, the super carrier USS John F. Kennedy (CV 67) is now in the Persian Gulf along with the so-called Essex Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) [31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) (SOC)] which consists of:: USS Essex (LHD 2) USS Juneau (LPD 10) USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49) USS Mobile Bay (CG 53USS Hopper (DDG 70) USS Preble (DDG 88)
The initial attacks will be an early-morning surprise attack launched to coincide with religious services in Tehran’s Muslim mosques with the idea of catching not only the leading Mullahs inside but a large number of their congregations as well. One attack will concentrate on these religious centers and the other will hit both the underground nuclear facilities and identified (courtesy of U.S. satellite shots) missile launching sites. The U.S. will supply observation and radio surveillance aircraft with radar-jamming capacities operating out of Turkey and Italy. The entire attack is scheduled to last no more than one hour with at least three waves of Israeli aircraft utilized. No warning will be given to the Iranians and no declaration of war. The possible deaths of foreign diplomats in the attacks has been discussed and accepted as part of the price.
This attack has the full support of the President who wants it launched before the elections. He can then make a speech to the American people stating that the evil Iranian nuclear weaponry has been destroyed by the Israelis with the full cooperation of his government as partof his heroic war against terrorists. Believe me, that speech has already been written and I have seen a copy of it. The brass here feels that this will have a tremendous impact on the American people, just before the elections. No U.S. ground troops will be used; Bush will stress that this is a joint U.S.-Israeli anti-terrorist project. Part of the speech deals with ongoing Shiite Iranian physical support of their Shiite brethren in Iraq and that by knocking out the Iranian nuclear weaponry, at the same time, they are protecting GIs from ongoing guerrilla warfare. The brass is literally rubbing it’s hands and drooling over what they see as Bush’s Final Victory.
I have seen a negative report copy from someone in the Pentagon [who is not going to get promoted] that says if the Iranians get wind of this little game, they might strike first and they might also realize that large numbers of vulnerable American troops are concentrated inside Iraqi cities, prime targets for a nuclear tactical attack. These people are literally insane and I really hope you don’t delete this. Something really has to be done to stop these maniacs before we all die of radiation sickness!”
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On May 6, the US House of Representatives adopted a resolution calling upon the White House to "take all appropriate steps to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons." If a similar resolution were also approved by the Senate, the administration would be authorized to stage a preventive attack against Tehran. It seems unlikely that a strike against Iranian nuclear sites will occur before the US elections in November. And if there is an attack, it will probably be executed by Israel – with Washington's tacit approval, because Israeli bombers would have to pass through Iraqi air space, which is controlled by US forces.
A study by the American Monterey Institute that describes the goals and possible consequences of a military strike is already making the rounds. According to the study, "300 Russian advisors" still work at Bushir – a risk factor. Experts expect that an attack would focus on the plants at Natan and Arak: "They are partially underground and protected by modern air defense systems." Because the Iranians could strike Israeli cities and further escalate the civil war in Iraq with their "Shahab-3" rockets (range: 1300 kilometers), the Monterey analysts warn against military action. Furthermore, they argue, it would only temporarily prevent the Iranians from building the bomb; Iran, according to the study, has large uranium deposits at Jasd and has the technical capabilities of rebuilding the bombed plants on its own.
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(from Asia Times)
The US under President George W Bush and his neo-conservative policymakers has every intention of unsheathing the regime-change strategy if he is re-elected in November. The neo-cons' aspirations of global hegemony have encountered a rude awakening in Iraq. However, those ambitions are neither abandoned, nor are they dead. They are undergoing a process of regrouping and rethinking about the future modalities of America's global dominance, but especially in the Middle East, in the event that Bush gets a second term.
Under a re-elected Bush, Iran has most to fear about America's potential exercise of regime change, for a variety of reasons. First, there continues to be bad blood between Iran and the US related to the hostage crisis of the late 1970s. Second, after the dismantlement of Saddam Hussein's regime, Iran has emerged as a major country that is confronting US hegemony in its immediate neighborhood, and is willing to take on the lone superpower rhetorically. Third, Iran continues to exercise considerable influence in Iraq. As such, it challenges America's dream of establishing its permanent presence in a subservient Iraq by ensuring the creation of a diffident regime.
As the US waits for the International Atomic Energy Agency and the European Union Three (France, Germany and the United Kingdom) to persuade Iran to abandon all aspirations of developing nuclear weapons, it is also becoming fairly certain that Iran has already made a decision to materialize that option. We are currently given two predictions about the date by which Iran would develop nuclear weapons. The Central Intelligence Agency estimates it to be by 2010, while Israel says 2007. Bush is likely to give the international actors time to persuade Iran to come clean regarding its nuclear program until November of this year. If he is re-elected, look for a possible preemptive US unilateral attack or a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by late this year, or early next year.
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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(from The Sunday Times)
Israel targets Iran nuclear plant
ISRAEL could launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power station if Russia goes ahead with plans to supply it with fuel, a senior American official warned last week.
Amid growing concern in the US government over Iran’s apparent determination to build a nuclear bomb, the official said he believed Israel would attack the plant, on the Gulf coast, if it appeared fuel rods were about to be shipped there.
Sources in Tel Aviv confirmed that the Israeli military had completed rehearsals for such a strike. “Israel will on no account permit Iranian reactors — especially the one being built in Bushehr with Russian help — to go critical,” an Israeli defence source said.
Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, recently called Iran the “biggest danger to the existence of Israel”. He said: “Israel will not allow Iran to be equipped with a nuclear weapon.”
According to Israeli sources, any strike on Bushehr would probably be carried out by long-haul F-15I jets, flying over Turkey, with simultaneous operations by commandos on the ground.
“If the worst comes to the worst and international efforts fail, we are very confident we’ll be able to demolish the ayatollahs’ nuclear aspirations in one go,” said a source familiar with the plans.
The source said the strike could be accompanied by an attack on other targets, including a facility at Natanz where the Iranians have attempted to enrich uranium — another route to making a bomb. A plant at Arak producing heavy water could also be hit.
A classified document delivered to Sharon earlier this year and seen by The Sunday Times highlighted the anxiety of the Israeli defence establishment over the seriousness of the perceived threat from Iran.
The document, entitled The Strategic Future of Israel and written by four of the country’s senior defence experts, said the military “should attack countries which develop nuclear weapons”. It also described Iran as a “suicide nation” and recommended “targeted killings” of members of the country’s elite, including its leading nuclear scientists.
Israel, whose own nuclear weapons programme is undeclared, showed its determination to prevent “rogue” Middle Eastern regimes acquiring the bomb when its planes destroyed a reactor built by Saddam Hussein, then the Iraqi leader, at Osirak in 1981.
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The American commission investigating the September 11 terrorist attacks is also expected to reveal new evidence of contacts between Al-Qaeda and Iran when it reports this week.
Additional reporting:
Mark Franchetti, Moscow
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...1182664,00.html
― Frank Swedehead, Wednesday, 13 October 2004 11:22 (twenty-one years ago)