It's November 2004 in Iraq

For a country that is about to have an election, it is odd that there is so little sign of public campaigning, public debate or independent press in Iraq. The 'election' will no doubt take place. It will no doubt be called a 'success' by the Bush propaganda machine. And nothing, but nothing, will change in terms of the occupation, troop rotation, death toll, vast dollar cost, or daily lives of Iraqis.

Because the average American feels so little pain or sacrifice for this war, they will just shrug and plod on, accepting whatever they are told on the tv news and not really thinking about it much. Eventually the soldiers and their families, who are doing all the dying and sacrificing, will grumble louder, but they are not in a position to change things and are too good, too loyal to mutiny.

God, it is depressing.

oh god : (

Human Rights Watch says it is likely crucial evidence for the trials of Saddam Hussein and other former Iraqi officials has been lost or tainted.

US-led coalition forces failed to secure relevant sites after last year's invasion of Iraq, the group says.

They failed to prevent people from looting thousands of official documents from government buildings.

In connection with the hunt for WMD, the Bush people used to constantly cite that Iraq was the size of California and there were only 100,000 troops on the ground to look for them. The same logic would apply far more pertinently to the weapons used by the Iraq guerillas, which are 1000 times easier to hide than a nuclear, chemical or biological facility.

The offensize against Fallujah must be entirely political in its objectives, since it makes almost no military sense to me. It just looks like the usual 'demonstration of power' so beloved by conquerors the world over. After the city is taken, if insurrection doesn't visibly slacken, it would effectively demonstrate our powerlessness instead and undermine our position even further. But, when all you have is a $1200 hammer...

Official spokesman Thaer Naqib said the emergency would cover the whole of Iraq except Kurdish-run areas in the north.

He said the move came in response to mass killings and destruction of the country's infrastructure carried out by "criminals and terrorists".

He said the violence was part of a plot to derail the Iraqi government's progress towards January's elections.

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It is not clear at this stage what the state of emergency will mean in practice.

Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is due to give full details on Monday.

However, the BBC's Alastair Leithead in Baghdad says it could include a curfew and extra powers for the police and military.

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STATE OF EMERGENCY

Prime Minister has power* to:

Impose a curfew for a short, defined period in areas facing serious security threats

Restrict the freedom of movement, assembly and use of weapons by Iraqis or foreigners suspected of crimes

Cordon off and search an area if its inhabitants are suspected of possessing weapons

Freeze the assets of those accused of insurgency

*Under the National Safety Law passed in July

This strikes me as all very preemptive for a variety of reasons.

NEAR FALLUJAH, Iraq (AP) - As U.S. forces prepared for what is expected to be the biggest Marine-led urban assault since Vietnam

"It [the war on terror] can be won in the sense that with enough engagement and skillful policies, they [the terrorists] will look like the losing side and will find it difficult to recruit people," Perle said.

So forget your gay marriage and partial-birth abortions and stem cells and taxes and tort reform and healthcare...this election, and the future and safety of our country, probably rests on the debate between two ideas. Does killing terrorists breed more terrorists? Bush & Co. just say no.

Meanwhile, channel 11 showed Born on the Fourth of July today. Tom Cruise endlessly debating both sides of whether it was worth fighting in vietnam, about killing children and mothers and fellow soldiers (haven't heard much talk of friendly fire this time around, not like the last gulf war), some spirited scenes of the Vietnam Veterans Against the War. I was waiting for Kerry to come on the screen. It's touching, and more proof that we own at least some if not all the media that they'd show this movie today, it's no coincedence. Which they showed it 2 weeks ago...

from this article:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041108/D867EHMG0.html

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Hoping to avoid a U.N. showdown, Iran and the European Union's three big powers reached a preliminary agreement over Tehran's nuclear program, Iran's chief negotiator said Sunday.

Meanwhile, lawmakers in Iran's conservative-dominated parliament pushed for a bill banning the production of nuclear weapons in a gesture of building more international trust.

The preliminary agreement worked out in Paris with Britain, France and Germany could be finalized in the next few days, chief Iranian negotiator Hossein Mousavian told state-run Iranian television from the French capital, where talks wrapped up Saturday.

If approved, the deal would be a major breakthrough after months of threats and negotiations and could spare Iran from being taken before the U.N. Security Council, where the United States has warned it would seek to impose economic sanctions unless Tehran gives up all uranium enrichment activities, a technology that can produce nuclear fuel or atomic weapons.

If we go into Iraq and we take down Hussein?

Then I think it's over for the terrorists.

Why so optimistic?

Because having destroyed the Taliban, having destroyed Saddam's regime, the message to the others is, "You're next." Two words. Very efficient diplomacy. " You're next, and if you don't shut down the terrorist networks on your territory, we'll take you down, too. Is it worth it?" Of course it isn't worth it. It isn't worth it for any of them.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/gunning/interviews/perle.html

Senior Marine commanders gathered troops for hollered pep talks, invoking the 1968 assault on the Vietnamese city of Hue, a battle that looms large in the lore of the Corps.

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"This will increase the violence," said Mohammed Bashar Faidhi, spokesman for the Association of Muslim Scholars, which represents 3,000 Sunni Muslim clergy in Iraq. "The government is like a man walking in the dark who wants to avoid a small hole and falls into a big hole."

"At this point, the government can't even protect itself," Faidhi said. "How can it impose a state of emergency? Allawi, when he travels, half of the American Army accompanies him!"

Well, I SAID these next three months would be telling no matter who won the election. I guess we're about to see what happens.

If this guy stays in power much longer I may have an aneurysm. At least be honest about what is going to happen (i.e. Iraqi combatants and Iraqi civilians are going to be killed) and let the public deal with it. This disinformation just does my head in.

Actually, it's Ramadan 1425.

Zing! There is actually a notable Christian minority there.

Am I imagining this, or is our U.S.-approved&installed "interim government" currently engaging in civil war while declaring martial law and sealing the borders? And, more to the point, does anyone seriously think this will work? So let's say they pacify Fallujah, kill a couple thousand Sunni/Baathists (and however many local residents who, you know, didn't have the good sense to flee their homes before we flattened them). Then? What? Fallujah has a population of 300,000 -- under normal, non-being-bombed-to-shit circumstances -- and does anyone think the majority of those people are going to suddenly welcome U.S. patrols (or Allawi patrols, same differmints) on their streets? There's still this magic thinking underlying all this where at some point we've kicked enough ass that the remaining non-dead population sees the light and smells the roses and starts opening up Starbucks on ever corner and voting Republican.

Meanwhile, is anyone paying attention to the Kurds? I mean, anyone besides the Turkish government? Talk about your somewhat-less-than-metaphorical powder kegs.

This is all turning out so great.

US and Iraqi soldiers have seized the northern third of Falluja from rebels on the second day of a full-scale assault, the US military says.
Troops have been advancing towards the centre, fighting insurgents armed with rifles and mortars street by street.

Early on Tuesday the US-led troops reached a key objective early - a mosque in the north part of Falluja.

The push into Falluja came as rebels took up positions in the heart of neighbouring Ramadi, eyewitnesses said.

They say fighters moved in when US troops withdrew from the town, a former insurgent stronghold.

An observation from the Stratfor elves:

No Iraqi army or national guard unit fought in Al Fallujah, sources close to the Interim Iraqi Government (IIG) say. Iraqi national guard units reportedly have refused to attack guerrilla positions; their commanders have been unable to make soldiers move forward and some officers are siding with the troops. Only the Iraqi army's special forces unit, which is mostly Kurdish, helped search for hidden guerrillas behind U.S. Marine lines outside the city. Hundreds of Iraqi soldiers have deserted to bases around Al Fallujah, the sources added.

More on the Kurdish troops being used over at DefenseTech:

So who are these guys? Defense Tech recently spoke with an Army officer, present at the 36th's creation, to get the scoop.

"The 36th was originally known as the 'political battalion,'" he said. That's because it was formed from the militias of five major political groups in Iraq: Iyad Alwai's Iraq National Accord (INA), Ahmed Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress (INC), the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which backs Ayatollah Ali Sistani, and the two main Kurdish groups, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). About 110 soldiers were originally culled from each group.

Because of the group's diverse roots, it's supposed to be the "most reliable" of the Iraqi forces. But, in reality, only a segment of the 36th has really been trustworthy – the Kurdish fighters known as pesh merga. In an early operation, the U.S. Army officer recalls, about 60 of SCIRI's soldiers fled; so did 30-40 each from the INA and INC. But between the two Kurdish groups, only 11 dropped out, total.

George Smith's crew GlobalSecurity.org has general points about Fallujah here and reports on the specific operation here.

We'll send them all we've got!
John Wayne and Randolph Scott!
Remember those exciting fighting scenes??
To the shores of Tripoli
(But not to Mississippoli)
What do we do? We send the Marines!

For might makes right,
And 'til they've seen the light,
They've got to be protected,
All their rights respected,
Till somebody we like can be elected...

Members of the corps
All hate the thought of war.
They'd rather kill them off by peaceful means.
Stop calling it aggression -
Ooh we hate that expression! -
We only want the world to know
That we support the status quo -
They love us everywhere we go! -
So when in doubt, send the Marines!

—Tom Lehrer

The US officer in charge of the assault on the Iraqi city of Falluja has warned that fighting in the rebel stronghold could become even more intense.

Lt Gen Thomas Metz said he expected several more days of heavy fighting as his forces try to crush insurgents.

The US military said soldiers reached the centre of the city on day two of the major assault, and that 10 US and two Iraqi soldiers had been killed.

Relief groups say they are deeply worried about the fate of civilians.

A man who fled the city told the BBC the streets were littered with bodies.

GlobalSecurity.Org summation, with slightly earlier info:

By 5 p.m on 09 November 2004 all electrical power in the city had been cut as well. American troops made the greatest gains in the northeastern part of the city and had advanced about 800 yards into the city. Other units in the west of Fallujah faced heavier fire which slowed their house by house push. Insurgent forces were still seen to have relatively fluid movement, able to move around the city to reinforce areas attacked by U.S. troops.

U.S. commanders expected about 2,000 members of Iraqi Security Forces to fight with American troops but Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the top American commander in Iraq, acknowledged that an unknown number of the Iraqis did not show up. As of 09 November 2004, U.S. officials reported 38 insurgents captured, four of which were foreign fighters and that 2 marines had died in a bulldozer accident.

No problem. Just tell those whining Iraqis that "freedom isn't free." Does wonders for one's outlook, I hear.

After two full days of fighting on 10 November 2004 U.S. Military officials announced they controlled 70 percent of the city and newly captured sites included the mayor's office, several mosques, a commercial center and other major civic objectives. Targeted airstrikes continued with laser-guided bombs being used to destroy buildings that held insurgent forces. American commanders said U.S. troops and Iraqi Security Forces secured the neighborhood of Jolan in the northwestern part of the city with less resistance than expected. U.S forces also saw a lack of resistance by insurgents as they captured and crossed Fallujah's main east-west highway. However, American units in the southwestern neighborhoods of Resala and Nazal reportedly encountered brisk fighting. Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the top American commander in Iraq had predicted that resistance would be stronger as U.S. troops pushed through the outer ring of defense into the heart of the city where insurgents were expected to leave a minefield of IEDs. Some soldiers reported taking fire from mosques and that some women and children were seen firing on soldiers.

There were also some reports by U.S. troops that insurgents used some of the city's mosques to hold wounded fellow fighters. Iraqi Security Forces were believed to be heavily used to search and secure the mosques. Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz, the commander of foreign military operations in Iraq reported that many of the mosques searched housed munitions and weapons. Specifically CENTCOM announced that on 10 November 2004 the 5th Battalion, 3rd Brigade of the Iraqi Army seized Al Tawfiq Mosque with U.S. Marines from the 7th Regimental Combat Team. The Iraqi Police Service’s Emergency Response Unit was at the Hydra Mosque with the 2nd Battalion, 1st Brigade of the Iraqi Intervention Force and U.S. Marines from the 7th RCT who had captured the site. American marines and soldiers, followed by Iraqi Security Forces captured the Muhammadia Mosque in one of the largest battles in Fallujah. The New York times reported the Muhammadia Mosque held strategic significance because insurgents were using it as a command center and bunker. A convention center across the street from the mosque was captured as well and the two facilities held numerous weapons, munitions, and IED-making material. Eight marines were killed in that operation as well as an unknown number of insurgents.

U.S. Military officials reported that as of 2 a.m. 10 November 2004, at least 10 American service members and two Iraqi soldiers had been killed in the assault, 31 American and Iraqi troops had been wounded and an estimated 100 insurgents killed.

The latest reports indicate that U.S.-Allawi forces are in "control" of 70 percent of Falluja. And yet, by every strategic indication, the insurgents are winning the battle.

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Much of the Sunni insurgency appears to be figuring that they can win a civil war, and as such are looking to start one. That will surely be put to the test if the Shia indeed formally take control of the country in January and view a Sunni insurgency as an existential threat to their long-held, now-realized political aspirations. Shia who won't fight for Iyad Allawi may very well fight for their religious leaders. If so, the violence of 2003 and 2004 might look like an age of serenity by contrast. And at that point, the Sunni insurgency may no longer win--but right now, it shows every sign of getting exactly what it wants.

BBC rundown just now:

US marines in Falluja have come under sustained attack from several different directions in the headquarters they have set up in the Iraqi city.

The BBC's Paul Wood, who is at the scene, said there was sniper fire from four or five points on the horizon.

The insurgents may have regrouped, he says, after US-led troops took over large parts of the city.

Other reports speak of heavy aerial bombardment, and a fresh attack on rebel-held areas in the south.

DefenseTech has questions:

Maybe this means something. I'm more than willing to believe it doesn't. But I found it a little odd that the U.S. military's push into Fallujah seems to be almost 180 degrees opposed to the tactics and techniques laid out in the Army's new Counterinsurgency Operations field manual.

And so the murk deepens.

After three days of measurable progress, American forces trying to take full control of Fallujah are confronting an insurgent force that has renewed energy.

And as American and Iraqi forces spread their grip across the city, the constant skirmishes of close urban combat and burst-in searches door-to-door are revealing more about insurgent tactics, including sleeper cells.

Elsewhere:

Mosul, the third largest city in Iraq, has been torn by deadly violence throughout the occupation, with car bombings and assassinations becoming almost a routine part of daily life.

But the assaults have grown so incendiary over the last two days, the Stryker Brigade, the light-armored mobile unit charged with controlling the region, is pulling its battalion out of the Falluja operation to send it north. Three Stryker battalions are already in the Mosul area.

American commanders have said insurgent leaders probably fled from Falluja in the days or weeks before the offensive there and may be organizing the wave of counterattacks roiling central and northern Iraq. Mosul has seen the toughest fighting outside Falluja.

http://www.kevinsites.net/2004_11_07_archive.html#110027008986926487

The most immediate concern for the interim government is manpower. Iraq has no more than eight battalions of the newly trained troops, whose main job is to occupy cities after U.S. forces defeat insurgents. Duty in Samarra and Fallujah, which have about half a million people between them, was already stretching that force thin. Adding duty in Mosul "means you're operating right out on the edge of what forces you have -- Iraqi forces," the U.S. official said.

However many insurgents were killed in this operation, it will be offset by new recruitment in a short time - mainly because the taking of Fallujah will do more to reveal US weakness than strength. Even as Fallujah was stormed, the insurgents went to Mosul and thumbed their noses at us.

Although the Good Loyal Americans in the press corps didn't make much of Mosul at the time, you had better believe the Iraqis noticed. We only have enough troops on the ground to control Baghdad and a few select spots outside Baghdad. That got rubbed in everybody's face, but good.

The marines have more or less flattened Fallujah and made it uninhabitable. No one will be moving back into those ruins, unless it's the insurgents. They don't need homes, electricity or running water - just cover and a place to hide.

Iraq's borders are like a sieve. All those small arms will be replaced lickety-split. The insurgents can set up shop in another town, without effective opposition from the US or the Iraqi puppet government. If the US does move in on another city stronghold, they'll reduce it to rubble, create more refugees and another PR disaster, push ordinary Iraqis further from us, and do NOTHING to undermine the insurgency.

GOD, THIS IS SO STUPID! It's also violent, bloody, senseless and pointless. We never put enough troops on the ground to win this. We never will. Our troops will continue to defend themselves and their bases fairly well - casualties will remain 'light', considering what they could be in a war. But they don't have a prayer of winning this one. It's too late.

Iraq has become a poster child for American agression, violence and idiocy. As with Vietnam, it will be a lo-o-o-ng time before the larger US public realizes this. Many never will.

Senior Marine intelligence officers in Iraq are warning that if American troop levels in the Falluja area are significantly reduced during reconstruction there, as has been planned, insurgents in the region will rebound from their defeat. The rebels could thwart the retraining of Iraqi security forces, intimidate the local population and derail elections set for January, the officers say.

They have further advised that despite taking heavy casualties in the weeklong battle, the insurgents will continue to grow in number, wage guerrilla attacks and try to foment unrest among Falluja's returning residents, emphasizing that expectations for improved conditions have not been met.

The pessimistic analysis is contained in a seven-page classified report prepared by intelligence officers in the First Marine Expeditionary Force, or I MEF, last weekend as the offensive in Falluja was winding down. The assessment was distributed to senior Marine and Army officers in Iraq, where one officer called it "brutally honest."

Oh, really? Sir! Let's wait for a few months and I'll get back to you on that matter, sir!

It does sound like they did pick up a fair amount of weapons caches, at least. But I highly doubt that's everything.

US military commanders were considering whether to boost their troop levels in Iraq by several thousand, Lt Gen Lance Smith told a Pentagon news conference.

Gen Smith, the deputy head of US Central Command in Iraq, described the Falluja operation as very successful.

But he said it was "too early to say" if it had broken rebels' resistance.

His remarks contrasted with those of the top marine commander in Iraq, Lt Gen John Sattler, who said on Thursday that the offensive had indeed "broken the back of the insurgency".

WHY THEY SO IMPATRIOTIC?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6403689/