so let's place bets: how long before the US invades Iran

I admit it doesn't seem like we have the manpower for invasion, but a rational understanding of logistics didn't stop us in Iraq....

And at least, no matter what Iran actually has, they will be able to confirm "stuff" was found. Oh what stuff they will find!

O.Nate's take strikes me as sound at this point. Yes, the rhetorical balderdash is kicking in but I suspect reality will be another matter.

I don't think simply "talking shit" is in the DubyaCo. playbook. They're more of a "slash and burn" type outfit.

i should point out that the iranians are 100% as culpable as the iraqis. they had the option to NOT send wave after wave of young men directly into the line of fire, and for whatever reason chose not to exercise that option.

i should also mention the hundreds of thousands of iraqi soldiers, iraqi civilians, and most of all kurds who died because, let's face it, chemical weapons are just capricious, especially in windy places like the mountainous deserts between iran and iraq.

sorry for the misunderstanding vahid (but by yr interpretation would't Iraq also have suffered at the hands of US WMDs...? making the national total 3, not 2?)

and instead the populace rising up to overthrown their theocratic oppressors, the already-paranoid & edgy Iranian government will (probably) crack down on any pro-democracy efforts for another 10 years or so.

i just want to point out that let's not forget that the iranians are coming off (having been coming off for ten years now) a war that cost millions and millions of lives (upper-bound estimate = 20 million, counting civilians, combined for the iranians, iraqis and kurds).

the iranians (and iraqis) are recovering from their WWI. so they are in a position not unlike that of the nuclear club, post WWII. they probably don't ever want to see that sort of wastage of life, again. yeah, the mullahs are deep-down-evil, but they're not insane, or monsters, or aliens. they want that reassurance that the chinese, and russians, and british, and french, and americans, and israelis share. they want to know that nobody will ever risk fucking with their borders because they've got the bomb. they don't want to waste 1000s and 1000s of people like the iraqis are doing to kill an american a week (and why would they??)

so it's safe to say the iranians have a nuclear WMD program.

kingfish, no way, no how. i dunno why i never chimed in on this thread, but it always seemed weird to me people pulling the "us gonna invade iran next" line. from a strategic standpoint, it ain't iraq. much bigger country, bigger population, and not hindered by 10+ years of sanctions. from a political standpoint, well given us involvement in the region in the past 20 years, and that even at the time we were denouncing them and they were denouncing us we were working together (arms for hostages deal, iran-contra, anybody remember?), and that there's been a huge amount of continuity from the reagan/bush I eras personell-wise into the bush II era, why would we topple a country that:

1. we obstensibly remade into the regional power.
2. we've palling around with on an unofficial basis for years (people in d.c. don't throw out their rolodexes, i have to assume it's the same in tehran).

Liberal Democracy at its best!

"Hey Iran! If you don't allow Inspectors in then we'll assume you're breaking International Law! Like Iraq! Who, um, allowed Inspectors in. And we'll attack you! Unless you've got, um, nuclear weapons. Which you're not allowed to have. Or we'll attack you. Unless you've got them. Goddamn Commies."

oh plz. Iran is still an important concern, but don't you think it's natural that people would mourn MICHAEL FUCKING JACKSON for five minutes? jeezus.

One of the Ayatollahs today asked for the death penalty for demonstration leaders...

stay classy Iran

oh plz. Iran is still an important concern, but don't you think it's natural that people would mourn MICHAEL FUCKING JACKSON for five minutes? jeezus.

― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 25 June 2009 21:09 (14 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

Clearly not the most important thing going on. However it does provide a convenient break for the news media, who appear to be getting bored anyway, coupled with an increasing shutdown of communications from Iran. Things seem to be running out of steam in Iran due to the brutal crackdown and the lack of leadership on the opposition side although anything could happen.

Khomeini fomented his movement from exile - tough to see anyone assuming a similar role from within the country.

It's looking more and more like this change, if it occurs at all, will be slow-burning and subterranean. And may not even have a real figurehead.

I think so, there was a quote up thread or on one of the blogs about how the Iranian revolution took a year to depose the shah. The cat is definitely out of the bag. However it puts Obama in a tricky situation, assuming he still wants to speak with Iran he will have to do it with Ahmedinejad, which will legitimise him, however that very fact may encourage Ahmedinejad to come to the table.

As someone pointed out on the news the other night, we don't HAVE diplomatic relations w Iran at the mo. So it's a moot point unless yeah, Obama issues the invitation and Imadinnerjacket RSVPs.

however that very fact may encourage Ahmedinejad to come to the table.

will be very surprised if this happens. This whole thing is gonna make Imadinnerjacket (isn't more of a Members Only jacket?) more difficult and assholish, not less.

more like m night shamalamadingdong

I cannot help but be impressed with how clever the protesters are, how sophisticated. Today, fearing violence at demonstrations, they simultaneously released loads of green balloons at 1PM.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e20115706d5e57970c-500wi

lolling hardcore at admin's clumsy attempts to pin Neda's murder on the CIA

seriously who do they think they are going to fool

'Iran trial' for UK embassy staff

"Naturally they will be put on trial, they have made confessions."

Sounds a bit ominous.

"Yes, we have a BBC license..."

Oooooohhh, finally some good news!!
Apparently,

The most important group of religious leaders in Iran called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate on Saturday

And then there's the bad news... Biden Suggests U.S. Not Standing in Israel’s Way on Iran

Flaring up again. This whole thing is turning into some long game tension.

yeah this is gonna drag on for awhile. at some point, Khameini's gonna have to decide how many people he's willing to murder to retain power.

374

It would depend on how public the murders are, I'm guessing. Secret murders are easier to pile up for big numbers. Massacres in public streets take more chutzpah.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8153593.stm

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-protests31-2009jul31,0,7400028.story

And I'm glad to read it.

hung out with a coupla iranian dudes in kampala. they were thrilled to see me wearing a green shirt

I say a year-and-a-half.

― Shakey Mo Collier, Wednesday, February 9, 2005 2:34 PM (4 years ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

Mid-to-late 2006 feels about right.

― Fish fingers all in a line (kenan), Wednesday, February 9, 2005 2:36 PM (4 years ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

:(

Better luck next time guys

Stalin would be proud

now that's what I call a show trial!

I can't help but feel this will actually weaken their grip on power in the long run.

eh, I dunno. it all comes down to who has the guns and who's running the prisons, and both seem to be pretty firmly in Khameini's hands, clerical disputes notwithstanding.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/6256173/Mahmoud-Ahmadinejad-revealed-to-have-Jewish-past.html

this explains why he looks so much like my dad

love how much this country hates britain:

Meanwhile, Basijis surrounded Ayatollah Sanei’s office and started chanting, “Death to Sanei,” “Sanei is an unbeliever,” “Sanei is a source of emulation for the British,” and “BBC, Sanei, congratulations on your union.” One slogan they kept repeating was, “This army that has turned up is for the sake of [out of love for] the Leader,” apparently referring to themselves.

http://www.bp.com

A building loomed up against the sky. It was dimly lit by firelight and suggested to me a glimpse of the Tower of London with the corner turrets knocked off. In front of this were some vast boilers with uncouth chimneys stretching out of sight into the dark sky. The whole thing, weird and eerie, was reflected in pools of water, through which black figures toiled and splashed, pushing some loaded trollies. Then we came out into a lighted area at the foot of a mysterious-looking furnace tower, where strangely clad men, not unlike tattered and disreputable monks, were hauling at a great black object, some boiler or piece of machinery.

The workmen on closer view showed that they were dressed in sacking or some such rough material in a sort of tunic. They wore long curly hair and curious hats that looked like Assyrian helmets.

"What race are these men?" I asked the Chief.

"They are the Medes and Persians," he replied.

I think as a matter of fact they were Kurds.

It is a very simple style of get-up to imitate. For purposes of private theatricals I will tell you how to do it, in case you should find the stage direction, "Alarums and excursions. Enter the Medes and Persians."

Take a very tattered, colourless, and ill-fitting dressing gown, without a girdle and flopping about untidily. Wear long black curly hair to shoulder. Put plenty of grease on. Then knock handle off a round-bottomed saucepan, very sooty, and place on your head. Dirty your face and you might walk about Abadan without attracting notice.

I daresay if I knew something technical about the refining of oil I should not find these works so fascinating. There is always a glamour about a thing only half understood. Probably the retorts and boilers and all the apparatus here are of the very latest pattern, yet so strangely unlike modern machinery do they seem that I find myself wondering if I have gone back into some previous age and unearthed strange things of prehistoric antiquity. These solemn-looking turbaned Indians might be tending the first uncouth monsters of engineering—the antediluvians of machinery. These serried ranks of tall iron funnels, these rude furnaces fed by crawling snakes of piping, these roaring domes of fire might be crude steam engines evolved by Titans when the world was young.

http://www.newenglishreview.org/files/100/Image/Abadanrefinery.jpg

i mean i know why they hate britain i just think its great how old habits die hard

i know you do, max. but i don't think many iranians see britain's villainy as "old".. in the scheme of iran it's about as new as it gets. the only thing newer is america's double-cross in the 50s.

Not unexpected

Iranian state television has made a documentary about the death of Neda Agha Soltan, a young Iranian woman who was shot dead during the June postelection protests in Tehran, suggesting she was an agent of the United States and Britain who staged her own death.

Neda's last moments were filmed on a cell phone and watched by millions of people around the world, becoming a symbol of democratic resistance to the regime.

The state-television documentary suggests the video of Neda's dying moments merely depicted her pouring blood on her own face from a special bottle she was carrying. Later, the documentary alleges that 27-year-old Neda was shot dead in the car that was taking her to a hospital.

The conspiracy theory alleged in the documentary is in line with comments by Iranian officials, who have repeatedly described Neda's death as "suspicious" and a "premeditated scenario" to defame Iran.

shit is getting out of hand

🇮🇷| Mayor of Tehran giving statistics on last night’s terrorist attacks in Tehran:

• 2 hospitals and medical centers were attacked.
• Economic infrastructure was targeted, including attacks on 26 banks.
• 25 mosques were attacked and set on fire.
• Basij bases and police… https://t.co/geD0rscUfs pic.twitter.com/oyXaZ9kJaL

— Arya - آریا (@AryJeay) January 9, 2026

oh god the shah’s son wants to come back lol

it's fucking incredible listening to the bbc trying to legitimise this cunt, addled, deluded minds that are still completely submerged in the empire mindset. You know lads, the world is watching and you look really fucking stupid.

there is a definitely a common theme that the rich-kid scions of the elites that flee radical revolutions are invariably absolutely fucking ghastly. See also the Venezuelan millionaire diaspora.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbZC04eqMCg

right now I think it’s safe to ignore any Western media about this.

oh yes, it's heavy stomach churning propagandistic bullshit with no mentions of Mi6 or CIA.

the son of a despotic British puppet monarch says something like " we need a unifying figure to lead us into freedom and democracy (and humble as unassuming as I am - I reckon I'm the best candidate for this role tbh)"

and Mossad of course

i dont think that’s in trump’s and putin’s vision yet so i think a while though we likely would keep throwing and giving missiles.

Funny that this bro is posting on X... I thought we're 'The Great Satan'?

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday lashed out at President Trump and anti-government protesters in a series of posts on the social platform X, as unrest over the economy has turned into angry demonstrations in cities across the country.

he’s a grok power user

check his hard drives!