What if Ronald Reagan had died in 1981?

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The date is Monday, March 30, 1981. President Reagan has been in office for a little over two months. Elsewhere in the world, Thatcher has been prime minister for barely under two years, Pope John Paul II is only a couple of years into his papacy, and Brezhnev, while fading, is still in charge of the USSR. In South Africa, P. W. Botha oversees an apartheid regime not apparently going away anytime soon, at least not without a fight. The Cold War is looking to reintensify, even while Afghanistan appears to be a new proxy front in the battles between the two superpowers. The recent return of the hostages in Iran have soothed many feelings in America, though Iran and Iraq themselves are engaged in a bitter war that shows no signs of letting up.

After delivering a speech to the Construction Trades Council in DC, President Reagan leaves the building, passing by a gaggle of press and public. As he turns to wave and acknowledge the crowd briefly, an unknown assailant draws a gun and swiftly fires. Reagan's press secretary is wounded in the head, while a Secret Service agent and a DC policeman are also hit. The assailant is swiftly overpowered and disarmed, while Reagan has been almost immediately forced into the car by Secret Service agent Jerry Parr and driven from the scene.

It is only after the car has left that Parr realizes to his horror that despite his best efforts to protect the President that one of the assailant's shots was all too lucky. Ronald Reagan has died in Parr's arms.

By the end of the day, Vice-President George Bush has been flown in from Texas where he too was giving a speech and inaugurated. President Bush, still showing visible shock over the turn of events, speaks to a horrified nation that has now lost two presidents to assassination in under twenty years, along with one resignation and two almost-successful assassination attempts. Barring any personal catastrophe, President Bush, the former CIA head who the previous year had run against Reagan before agreeing to a VP spot, will now lead the nation through January 1985.

---

The above scenario, probably because it's based on a vivid memory of what happened that day (Reagan's own thoughts can be found here), has been my favorite alternate/counterfactual history question to pose for some years now -- I think I first wondered about it back in 1990 or so, and ever since then it comes to mind ever more strongly. I wonder *what* -- if anything -- might have changed, and how it would have changed. What would be the cultural reference points? What would have Bush done/not done in Reagan's place for at least the remainder of that presidential term? What else might have happened elsewhere? Is it incorrect to apply 'great man' theories of history in this case, or not? ('Great man' not being used in a value judgment of Reagan or Bush but rather the idea that individuals can/will have an effect on historical developments, as often if not always opposed to beliefs that larger social/political/religious trends will matter more in the end.)

What do you think?

Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 21:56 (twenty years ago)

sounds like a PKDick novel (just add telepathic aliens)! Religious Right would've had a hard time w/Bush in office - Cold War probably would've progressed the same though. hard to say...

Shakey Mo Collier, Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:00 (twenty years ago)

bush didn't believe in trickle-down economics. so it's likely the economic landscape of the 80's would have been different. better or worse and for whom though, I'm not equipped to say. but it's a fair guess that he would have been a one-termer.

kyle (akmonday), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:01 (twenty years ago)

also, Regan would have been as mythologized and as fondly remembered as JFK

kyle (akmonday), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:02 (twenty years ago)

democrats would rule the earth - and possibly no 9/11 if funding to muhajadeen trickled to nothing. cold war would've played out similar, maybe even ended earlier - the sovs were going bankrupt, don't buy this "reagan/the pope/yo mama ended the cold war" bullhockey.

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:02 (twenty years ago)

kyle - no way, '81 recession hit hard. people would be fond of reagan, sure, but not in the way they are of jfk.

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:03 (twenty years ago)

(everyone read my posts on this thread as wishfulfillment, obv.)

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:03 (twenty years ago)

It is hard to say, since both the president and the vp at the time are still kind of a mystery to me. Yeah, the religious right was pretty noisy back then, but I'm not sure if they were all that friendly with Reagan himself - I think they just seized the opportunity, or maybe it was really a backlash against the liberal evangelicals (who had a greater presence in the seventies). Reagan's economics were pretty dire, though - couldn't get much worse.

x-post: what other ppl said. No way Bush would have lasted.

All of the time, and none of the art (dymaxia), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:05 (twenty years ago)

he was only two months into his presidency; getting killed trumps not turning the economy around in 60 days. the recession would have been laid on Carter's head. (xpost)

kyle (akmonday), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:05 (twenty years ago)

agreed that Bush would've been a one-termer and hstencil OTM re: the Soviets (might be stretching about 9/11 tho - I don't think Bush had any qualms about funneling weapons to potentially dangerous people - see Iran/Contra; and as former head of the CIA almost certainly subscribed to the ludicrous "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" POV)

Shakey Mo Collier, Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:06 (twenty years ago)

yes actually we'd probably have had a fucking totalitarian society in place by summer 81 instead of waiting until 2002

kyle (akmonday), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:07 (twenty years ago)

not if bush couldn't turn it around in his hypothetical 3 year, 305 day reign. dude couldn't even manage a mild recession when he was prez, mind you.

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:07 (twenty years ago)

2002? did i miss something that year?

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:08 (twenty years ago)

he would have had his CIA broheems eliminate all his critics! I think we'd be thinking much worse of Bush I actually. people look back on him fondly now since his son is such a fuck, but really, the guy was the head of the CIA; how good can he be?

(xpost)

2002: patriot act. maybe that was 2003.

kyle (akmonday), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:10 (twenty years ago)

also, Regan would have been as mythologized and as fondly remembered as JFK

Or as much as William Henry Harrison.

Pleasant Plains /// (Pleasant Plains ///), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:11 (twenty years ago)

oopos I guess it was in 2001. that was fast of them.

kyle (akmonday), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:11 (twenty years ago)

2001, dude. "A SHIT ODYSSEY"

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:11 (twenty years ago)

don't bag on Harrison! that man died for your sins!

kyle (akmonday), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:11 (twenty years ago)

also i think our current totalitarian streak sorta has its roots more in 1994 - and not even Reagan so much! tho the repubs claim his legacy, dubya is "reaganesque," blah blah.

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:12 (twenty years ago)

William Henry Harrison died for somebody's sins, but not mine.

Pleasant Plains /// (Pleasant Plains ///), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:12 (twenty years ago)

i think the only thing we know for sure is that we'd have Ronald Regan $10 bills now

kyle (akmonday), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:13 (twenty years ago)

xpost damn you arkasasan!

"WILLIAM HENRY HARRISON DIED FOR SOMEBODY'S SINS BUT NOT MIIIIIINE"

huh. doesn't really roll off the tongue.

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:13 (twenty years ago)

no, we wouldn't have reagan $10 bills now. but we might soon, back in our world.

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:13 (twenty years ago)

Arkansassassin

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:13 (twenty years ago)

ATTENTION RAPPERS ET AL

Allyzay do not obtain to make download of yours MP3 (allyzay), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:24 (twenty years ago)

omg so money

hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:28 (twenty years ago)

I admit I'm amused at the turn this has taken.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:46 (twenty years ago)

the only thing that would change is that Reagan Youth would never have gotten together, written that song Degenerated, and the Lone Rangers from Airheads would have had to write their own song

i got nothin

pete and pete (pete and pete), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 22:56 (twenty years ago)

We would have been better off. Bush Sr. is still a horrible person with evil intentions, but he's the only even semi-competent republican to have inhabited the whitehouse since, shit, maybe Eisenhower. And he still would have only had one term. I bet you anything we'd be on our, like, 20-something-th year with a democratic president.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 23:41 (twenty years ago)

I know nothing. I talk out of my ass.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Wednesday, 27 April 2005 23:41 (twenty years ago)


There probably wouldn't have been as much music by people with funny hair.

All of the time, and none of the art (dymaxia), Thursday, 28 April 2005 00:42 (twenty years ago)

england would still have thatcher, tho. so:

http://www.wavelengthtoronto.com/graphics/aug-2004/jesus-mary-chain.jpg

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 28 April 2005 04:24 (twenty years ago)

I just can't, I can't understand it. Don't know why.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 28 April 2005 04:36 (twenty years ago)

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 28 April 2005 04:46 (twenty years ago)

emigres:

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 28 April 2005 04:47 (twenty years ago)

fighting the good fight against thatcherism:

http://www.ultra-pop.org/images/band/kajagoogoo.jpg

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 28 April 2005 04:49 (twenty years ago)

remember that welsh coal miners strike?

http://www.ultra-pop.org/images/band/alarm.jpg

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 28 April 2005 04:52 (twenty years ago)

i'm not sure what was going on in the thatcher era re: gay rights, but something had to have been happening...

http://www.nostalgia-warehouse.co.uk/images/CULTURE%20CLUB%20WAKING%20UP.jpg

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 28 April 2005 04:54 (twenty years ago)

even non-uk residents were concerned with thatcher's policies (and had funny hair):

http://this.is/u2/diskar/02/cd.jpg

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 28 April 2005 04:56 (twenty years ago)

Acting President Haig would have pressed the button and none of us would be here today. End of debate.

Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Thursday, 28 April 2005 04:58 (twenty years ago)

he didn't get the chance.

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 28 April 2005 05:00 (twenty years ago)

i think he wouldn't have lived long enough to give aids to gorbachev in a bath house in moscow

more like ronald gay-gun, Thursday, 28 April 2005 06:22 (twenty years ago)

Hm, different.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 28 April 2005 13:12 (twenty years ago)

bush didn't believe in trickle-down economics.

Neither did Reagan.

Cunga (Cunga), Friday, 29 April 2005 08:14 (twenty years ago)

eleven months pass...
I know have a conscious sense of what a quarter-century feels like.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 30 March 2006 05:25 (twenty years ago)

Know? Now. Etc.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 30 March 2006 05:26 (twenty years ago)

http://www.mobicomics.ca/covers/marvel/whatif_v2_marvel_81_s.JPG

timmy tannin (pompous), Thursday, 30 March 2006 05:29 (twenty years ago)

Welsh miners' strike?

Forest Pines (ForestPines), Thursday, 30 March 2006 06:23 (twenty years ago)

the only thing that would change is that Reagan Youth would never have gotten together, written that song Degenerated, and the Lone Rangers from Airheads would have had to write their own song

And the Dead Kennedys wouldn't have penned Kinky sex makes the world go round, either.

Markelby (Mark C), Thursday, 30 March 2006 08:42 (twenty years ago)

It's a vision.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 30 March 2006 12:48 (twenty years ago)

Search Carmaig's de Forest's "Hey Judas": John Hinckley, you done a bad thing when you missed.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 30 March 2006 13:24 (twenty years ago)

i remember this day--i was in fourth grade. i think we were let out of school early because of it, which is strange. it was a good day for me, though, cause my dad gave me this sweet programmable clock radio.

mookieproof (mookieproof), Thursday, 30 March 2006 13:51 (twenty years ago)

"Reagan's dead, son. Enjoy the music."

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 30 March 2006 14:24 (twenty years ago)

Welsh miners' strike?

In the same way that Thatcher's England apparently impacted upon the Jesus and Mary Chain (who aren't English). God, I'm like a stuck record correcting the Canadians Americans about this today.

ailsa (ailsa), Thursday, 30 March 2006 17:08 (twenty years ago)

That's quite all right. You're from the Orkneys, right?

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 30 March 2006 17:15 (twenty years ago)

five years pass...

I know have a conscious sense of what a quarter-century 30 years feels like.

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, March 29, 2006 11:25 PM Bookmark

http://tinyurl.com/vroooo0ooooom (Pleasant Plains), Wednesday, 30 March 2011 14:58 (fifteen years ago)

Hitchens tried a similar experiment.

It was extraordinary that, in Mikhail Gorbachev, Reagan was dealing with a man who knew that the Soviet Union could not sustain the arms race and a man who was out of patience with the satraps of East Germany. To Gorbachev goes an enormous share of the credit. But if I run the thought experiment and ask myself whether Walter Mondale would have made a better interlocutor in 1987, I cannot make myself believe it. This does not involve un-saying any of the things about Reagan that his admirers would prefer us to forget. But it does acknowledge the distinction between a historic presidency and an average one. Reagan's friend Margaret Thatcher once said that the real test of her success was the way that she had changed the politics of the Labour Party. By that standard, the legacy of Reagan in permanently altering the political landscape is with us still.

Hey Look More Than Five Years Has Passed And You Have A C (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 30 March 2011 15:01 (fifteen years ago)

I was in the first grade. It was the first time of maybe two or three other times where instead of working on classwork, our teacher turned off the lights and wheeled a television set into the classroom. For two hours, we watched shaky camera angles of men falling onto the sidewalk and limos driving off. In my mind, I couldn't really put together what was going on here. It sure didn't look like what you'd picture at a presidential assassination.

One of my classmates said something like "I'm glad he's dead!" and our teacher yelled at him. I talked to my grandmother that night and we talked about how happy those Iranians must be now.

I remember watching the "Woman" video by John Lennon a few months before with my mom and knowing that something had happened. By the time the Pope got shot a few months later and then Anwar Sadat, it just seemed that people got shot all the time. Kind of weird now to think how the Tucson shootings was tragic in so many ways, but also stands out because public figures just don't seem to get shot at as much anymore.

http://tinyurl.com/vroooo0ooooom (Pleasant Plains), Wednesday, 30 March 2011 15:04 (fifteen years ago)

an equally (if not more) interesting thought experiment would be if Gorbachev hadn't come into power in 1985.

joyless kunt who afaik contributes nothing but toothless mockery (Eisbaer), Wednesday, 30 March 2011 17:13 (fifteen years ago)

Had that never happened, Sarah Palin would never had to worry about the Eye of Putin.

Hey Look More Than Five Years Has Passed And You Have A C (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 30 March 2011 17:15 (fifteen years ago)

five years pass...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjaXmBiUoAAUzBO.jpg

-- bob marley

mookieproof, Thursday, 26 May 2016 21:21 (nine years ago)

rub a dub style

F♯ A♯ (∞), Thursday, 26 May 2016 22:56 (nine years ago)

biased media

Treeship, Thursday, 26 May 2016 23:22 (nine years ago)

three months pass...

They let Hinckley out today.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/john-hinckley-freed-mental-hospital-35-years-after-reagan-assassination-n646076

clemenza, Saturday, 10 September 2016 21:15 (nine years ago)

this already spurred hilarious 'joeks' from people that someone should tell John that Jodie Foster is in love with Trump. hurr hurr hurr

Neanderthal, Saturday, 10 September 2016 21:19 (nine years ago)

"I don't think that anybody who tries to nullify a national election with a bullet should ever been walking free, no matter what their mental state," former federal prosecutor Joseph DiGenova said.

what a...weird way to phrase it? I realize murdering a politician is handled differently from that of a civilian, all the way down to the name they give it, but the prosecutor seems more bothered that he "violated the will of voters" rather than attempting to commit murder.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 10 September 2016 21:22 (nine years ago)

Getting shot at is just a hazard of the job...

brimstead, Saturday, 10 September 2016 21:32 (nine years ago)

wanna see if Hinckley is open to a musical collaboration

Neanderthal, Saturday, 10 September 2016 21:38 (nine years ago)

Maybe we'll finally get that "Greatest American Hero" reboot now

8 Whisps (Myonga Vön Bontee), Saturday, 10 September 2016 21:54 (nine years ago)

Does the release have something, maybe a lot, to do with the fact that Reagan survived? I don't know the law here.

clemenza, Saturday, 10 September 2016 22:06 (nine years ago)

it's arbitrary, like all other criminal justice matters

brimstead, Saturday, 10 September 2016 22:11 (nine years ago)

I think the prosecutor is making a perfectly reasonable point if you assume incarceration in cases such as Hinckley's is supposed to function as a strong deterrent. Like espionage or treason.

Anacostia Aerodrome (El Tomboto), Saturday, 10 September 2016 22:12 (nine years ago)

xxp I don't know much about it either, but wasn't he found not guilty by reason of insanity? and it led to an outcry and a raising of the bar for what qualified on that score?

soref, Saturday, 10 September 2016 22:14 (nine years ago)

The release has nothing to do with the fact that nobody died, it has everything to do with him never having been convicted in the first place

Anacostia Aerodrome (El Tomboto), Saturday, 10 September 2016 22:14 (nine years ago)

like, RTFA ppl

Anacostia Aerodrome (El Tomboto), Saturday, 10 September 2016 22:15 (nine years ago)

It's really not a big deal, lots of worse people get released all the time

brimstead, Saturday, 10 September 2016 22:25 (nine years ago)

Administrative stuff, shuffling papers, copying papers, that lullabyllic drone of old laser printers, shhoooooooosh

brimstead, Saturday, 10 September 2016 22:26 (nine years ago)

four years pass...

happy 40th!

i was in fourth grade; think we got sent home from school early. of more importance to me that day is that i happened to get a really cool programmable clock radio with a number pad

mookieproof, Tuesday, 30 March 2021 15:23 (five years ago)

My mom picked me up after school to take me to my piano lesson. When I got in the car, she'd been listening to the news on the radio and she said, "Reagan was shot!" I immediately blurted out, "GOOD!" I was eight. My mom gave me a look that said, "Technically, I should scold you for saying that, but...well, it's Reagan, so I'll let it slide."

Montgomery Burns' Jazz (Tarfumes The Escape Goat), Tuesday, 30 March 2021 15:38 (five years ago)

it's tragic that he survived

Wayne Grotski (symsymsym), Tuesday, 30 March 2021 16:09 (five years ago)

"I don't think that anybody who tries to nullify a national election with a bullet should ever been walking free, no matter what their mental state," former federal prosecutor Joseph DiGenova said

this guy's changed his tune in the last few months...

Wayne Grotski (symsymsym), Tuesday, 30 March 2021 16:10 (five years ago)

I wonder what would have happened to Jodie Foster. It would have been funny if she'd married him.

Alba, Tuesday, 30 March 2021 16:15 (five years ago)

Alternative history is always wrong, but my memory in general is that the senior George Bush, who would have taken over, was only slightly less retrograde than Reagan and would most likely have kept most of Reagan's cabinet and continued most of his policies.

The real missing piece with Reagan out of the way would have been Ron's uncanny ability to put an affable, genial face on reactionary politics. He sold the country down the river, but like any good salesman, he always had a smile, a quip and an 'aw shucks' attitude to make it feel like he was your best friend and would never steer you wrong.

Judge Roi Behan (Aimless), Tuesday, 30 March 2021 17:58 (five years ago)

Party realignment would've been delayed a few more years. Without Reagan, no Reagan Democrats or New Right, which would not have been the case, by contrast, if he'd been killed in April 1985.

Bush would've lost in 1984.

So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 30 March 2021 18:02 (five years ago)

england would still have thatcher, tho. so:

But only till 1984 when the IRA successfully blew her up in Brighton.

Duncan Disorderly (Tom D.), Tuesday, 30 March 2021 19:00 (five years ago)

Party realignment would've been delayed a few more years. Without Reagan, no Reagan Democrats or New Right, which would not have been the case, by contrast, if he'd been killed in April 1985.

But there were Reagan Democrats prior to 1981 - they helped get him elected. You're suggesting Bush would have lost them somehow?

Also I'm not sure why everyone is convinced Mondale would have beaten Bush in '84.

Josefa, Tuesday, 30 March 2021 19:46 (five years ago)

We think Mondale would've been the nominee? The frontrunner, surely, but not confirmed.

Reagan gave those former Dems a name. I hold the movement would've been stillborn -- he'd have been the LaFollette of the right.

So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 30 March 2021 19:49 (five years ago)

It's true Gary Hart came close to winning the nomination in '84 (I'd forgotten how close), but I'm not sure how an early Bush presidency would've kept the Dem primaries from playing out the same way.

Josefa, Tuesday, 30 March 2021 20:05 (five years ago)

An no guarantee Hart would've beaten Bush either.

Josefa, Tuesday, 30 March 2021 20:18 (five years ago)

two months pass...

F/X aired The Americans episode about the Reagan assassination attempt a few times the past week. At one point, you hear what is obviously an actual news report that James Brady has died. My memories of the event are dim--don't recall that being misreported.

clemenza, Tuesday, 29 June 2021 15:05 (four years ago)

It was, according to a couple of the bios. Deaver cried when he heard the (wrong) news.

So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 29 June 2021 15:23 (four years ago)

The way things are framed in the episode, it's pretty humorous in retrospect. The Russian-spy wife (because of a recording they obtain) is panicked that Alexander Haig has the nuclear football and is staging a coup; her Russian-spy husband says stay calm and wait it out, else we'll set off WWIII.

clemenza, Tuesday, 29 June 2021 15:36 (four years ago)

two months pass...

NEW: A federal judge has approved the unconditional release of John Hinckley Jr., who wounded then-President Ronald Reagan and three others in a failed assassination attempt in 1981. https://t.co/BiTlFCCJNH

— NPR Politics (@nprpolitics) September 27, 2021

mookieproof, Monday, 27 September 2021 15:46 (four years ago)

also, Regan would have been as mythologized and as fondly remembered as JFK
― kyle (akmonday), Wednesday, April 27, 2005 5:02 PM (sixteen years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Seems to me this ended up happening anyway. He'll be on money before I'm dead, probably.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 27 September 2021 15:52 (four years ago)

(Assuming akmonday was talking about the president and not Donald Regan that is)

Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 27 September 2021 15:53 (four years ago)

Bush would have faced a hard primary challenge in '84 without two terms under Reagan to ease the right wing's hostility (and then it wasn't very successful - Buchanan in '92, etc.). I don't know who had the profile to run against him - Jesse Helms?

papal hotwife (milo z), Tuesday, 28 September 2021 07:02 (four years ago)

Jack Kemp maybe

Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Tuesday, 28 September 2021 10:25 (four years ago)


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