Predict The Results Of The UK General Election

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What's going to happen? Outcome and majority (if applicable), plus any specific predictions so we can marvel at your prophetic powers tomorrow. Cassandras welcome.

― Tom (Groke), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:29 (twenty-one years ago)

Labour majority of 58.

― Eyeball Kicks (Eyeball Kicks), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:33 (twenty-one years ago)

Before predictions can someone remind us of the stats pre this election re the number of MPs per party.

― DJ Martian (djmartian), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:33 (twenty-one years ago)

Labour majority of 38.

xpost from the BBC website:

"At the end of the last Parliament, Labour had 410 MPs, the Conservatives 164 and the Liberal Democrats 54.

The Scottish National Party also have five seats, Plaid Cymru four, the Democratic Unionists seven, the Ulster Unionists five, Sinn Fein four, the SDLP three, and one each for Respect, Independent and Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern."

― Tom (Groke), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:34 (twenty-one years ago)

Labour majority of 74.

― Onimo (GerryNemo), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:35 (twenty-one years ago)

Currently:
Labour 410
Conservatives 164
Liberal Democrats 54
Scottish National Party 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Democratic Unionist 7
Ulster Unionist 5
Sinn Fein 4
SDLP 3
Respect 1
Independent 1
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 1

I make that a Labour majority of 161.

There are fewer seats this time due to boundary changes, so 324 are needed for an overall majority.

― mike t-diva (mike t-diva), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:39 (twenty-one years ago)

I'll predict a Labour majority of 109.

― mike t-diva (mike t-diva), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:41 (twenty-one years ago)

State of the parties at the Dissolution of Parliament - 11th April 2005

Labour 408
Conservative 160
Liberal Democrat 54
Scottish National Party/Plaid Cymru 9 (SNP 5/PC 4)
Democratic Unionist 7
Ulster Unionist 5
Sinn Fein 4 (Have not taken their seats)
Social Democratic & Labour 3
Independent 2
Independent Conservative 2
Respect 1
Speaker & 3 Deputies 4 (Do not normally vote)

Total 659
Government majority 161

Seats won at 2001 General Election

Labour 412
Conservative 166
Liberal Democrat 52
Ulster Unionist 6
Democratic Unionist 5
Scottish National 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Sinn Fein 4
Social Democratic & Labour 3
Independent 1
Speaker 1 (Stood as "Speaker seeking re-election")

Total 659
Government majority 166

― beanz (beanz), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:41 (twenty-one years ago)

Oh xpost arse

― beanz (beanz), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:42 (twenty-one years ago)

Labour Majority of 82

It want be as bad for New Labour as what happened to the Tories in 1992.

Hopefully the Lib Dems win a considerable number of marginal seats from both New Labour and the Tories, re: tactical voting.

The Tories will probably pick up about 40 - 50 more MPs.

― DJ Martian (djmartian), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:44 (twenty-one years ago)

My prediction:
Labour 376 (majority of 106)
Conservative 190
Lib Dem 52
Others 28

― beanz (beanz), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:46 (twenty-one years ago)

I wonder if the Lib Dem potential gains might not happen - an extra 3 or 4% could vote for LDs on average but not win them more seats.

― beanz (beanz), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:48 (twenty-one years ago)

Lib Dem target seats:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/gainsandlosses_ld.stm

― DJ Martian (djmartian), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:49 (twenty-one years ago)

Lots of blue seats on that chart - but most of the LD swing will come from Labour

― beanz (beanz), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:50 (twenty-one years ago)

er, maybe

― beanz (beanz), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:51 (twenty-one years ago)

Lab majority of 17.

― aldo_cowpat (aldo_cowpat), Thursday, 5 May 2005 12:58 (twenty-one years ago)

I making two:

Pessimistic: Labour majority of 40 (Labour collapse, LD and Tory tactical voting picks off seats in targeted fashion)

Optimistic: Labour majority of 100 (3 party merrygoround, with Labour losing a fair few to both, the tories losing a few to the Lib-Dems but making no suburban inroads.

― Dave B (daveb), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:07 (twenty-one years ago)

Q: what was the labour majority in the 1997 election?

― DJ Martian (djmartian), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:10 (twenty-one years ago)

I hope Blair gets his arse kicked, but sadly I feel he won't. I'd like to say Lab Maj of 40, but I'm going for Lab Maj of 80.

― Dr. C (Dr. C), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:12 (twenty-one years ago)

Labour 340
Conservative 190
Liberal Democrat 98
Others 39

― Billy Dods (Billy Dods), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:14 (twenty-one years ago)

optimistic: labour win but with a much reduced majority in favour of libs/greens/whomever and no real tory gains.

― RJG (RJG), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:15 (twenty-one years ago)

Q: what do Brian Eno, Billy Bragg, Andy Kershaw and Greg Dyke all have in common?

― DJ Martian (djmartian), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:16 (twenty-one years ago)

realistic: just that labour win in a way that is not great.

― RJG (RJG), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:16 (twenty-one years ago)

A: They all own Rattle And Hum.

― Tom (Groke), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:18 (twenty-one years ago)

They have all previously voted Labour but have switched their vote to the Liberal Democrats

― DJ Martian (djmartian), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:20 (twenty-one years ago)

My MP is the speaker and all three main parties are supporting him, so his only opposition is the SNP. He's had the seat since 1979 and had a 48% majority last time around, so I think he's a bit of a banker.

My only slightly more risky prediction: Guildford back to the Tories.

― Madchen (Madchen), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:23 (twenty-one years ago)

I blame mos def.

― RJG (RJG), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:25 (twenty-one years ago)

Just don't blame Zooey.

― Ally C (Ally C), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:26 (twenty-one years ago)

Hmm. Bragg's not a disgusted with labour man is he though, more anti-Tory tactical voter living in Dorset.

― Dave B (daveb), Thursday, 5 May 2005 13:38 (twenty-one years ago)

Tories win 30 seats, LDs win 6 seats, Nationalist parties lose ground. Labour majority around 90.

― Markleby, Thursday, 5 May 2005 15:17 (twenty-one years ago)

Everything stays the same, really.

― jel -- (jel), Thursday, 5 May 2005 15:19 (twenty-one years ago)

Markleby your predictions don't add up re the stats. Labour would have a much higher majority based on your predictions for the tories and LD.

― DJ Martian (djmartian), Thursday, 5 May 2005 15:21 (twenty-one years ago)

Labour 360 (-43)
Conservative 191 (+ 26)
Lib Dem 65 (+14)
Others 30 (+3)

Labour overall majority : 74

I also predict:

- some idiosyncratic results from the marginals where earlier anti-Tory strategic voting no longer applies.
- a historic third term win for the Labour Party to be widely reported as a defeat for Blair (who will win + is ‘damaged goods’)
- Howard will be in deep trouble (espec if they don't get 200 seats).
- The UUP, and Trimble, wiped off the map in N. Ireland
- Poor night for the Scottish Labour Party.

― stevo (stevo), Thursday, 5 May 2005 16:03 (twenty-one years ago)

Labour maj. around 45 seats.

― AdrianB (AdrianB), Thursday, 5 May 2005 16:13 (twenty-one years ago)

I predicted (a couple of days ago) Labour majority of 72. Having seen the exit poll it'll probably be a lot less than that, as every exit poll and opinion poll always seems to overstate Labour's share.

― The Horse of Babylon's Butler (the pirate king), Thursday, 5 May 2005 20:17 (twenty-one years ago)

These were the predictions I made a couple of hours ago, before I'd seen exit polls.

Lab - 360
Lib Dem - 69
Tories - 202.

That LibDem figure seems ludicrous now.

― Cathy (Cathy), Thursday, 5 May 2005 20:18 (twenty-one years ago)

Currently the results are:
Lab - 353
Con - 194
Lib Dem - 59

- so you weren't that far off.

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Friday, 6 May 2005 05:17 (twenty years ago)

Well, I got Guildford right.

― Madchen (Madchen), Friday, 6 May 2005 08:43 (twenty years ago)

eyeball kicks was pretty close

― ken c (ken c), Friday, 6 May 2005 08:51 (twenty years ago)

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