2005 Japanese election results and what, if anything, they mean

The DPJ also let Koizumi turn this election into a referendum on postal reform. While everyone agrees that it is an important issue, there are several other topics worthy of discussion which were virtually ignored during the campaign. The Pension system needs to be restructured, a low birthrate coupled with nearly zero immigration means that the population will actually begin to contract sometime in the next two years, and relations with China and Korea are still at their lowest points in years. This was a chance for Japan to face up to a lot of the problems that have been plaguing it for a while, but the opportunity was squandered.

With regards to postal reform, Koizumi has consistently been very vague about his exact intentions. There is a massive amount of money deposited in postal savings accounts, and while I agree in principal with taking the savings away from the politicians and bureaucrats who use them to underwrite wasteful public works projects carried out in the name of patronage, I'm not exactly clear on how he intends to invest them.

At any rate, Koizumi took a massive gamble and has emerged stronger than any Japanese Prime Minister in at least a generation. Like Dubya said about himself last November, Koizumi's now got political capital. What remains is to see exactly how he intends to spend it. His party's right leaning tendencies coupled with his stubborn insistence on continuing the visits to Yasukuni shrine mean that relations with the rest of Asia will most likely remain chilly. But perhaps he'll be able to make some headway in the economic sphere.

However, as you mention, J, the fact that Koizumi is all too happy to appease the more conservative factions in Japan, as well as his continuing visits to the Yasukuni shrine are a poor indicator of this actually happening so long as he is in office.

Shame really..China seems like they would be happy to have Japan playing a stronger role in the east asian community, as well as on the UN security council, if only Japan were to step up and take some responsibility for their past actions.

"So how long until the Asian arms race breaks out for real?"

Sadly, the way things have been going, probably sooner than anyone would like. Japan's post-war pacifism is weakening and there has been talk of amending Article 9 of the constitution, in which they renounced the sovereign right to wage war.

Koizumi lost the vote to privatise the post office in parliament. He then called the election and purged the rebel mps and is going to do it all again. Why did he win the election? It's not because a massive majority of people want postal privatisation. It's because he enlisted a lot of celebrities to replace the excluded rebel mps. And also because of a vague sense that "modernisation" and "reform" are necessary. But again, what does "reform" mean when it's just a question of syphoning cash out of the public realm into the private one? Was Thatcher right when she did it? Look what happened to the British Railway system!

"And the government has a huge pile of cash with which to finance public building projects: bridges, dams, and so on. These pieces of infrastructure are often described as "unnecessary", but they keep people working and serve communities on remote islands, and so on."

Useless public building projects and make-work projects don't benefit the Japanese at all. The real purpose behind them is to curry favour with rural voters. If they're really interested in keeping people employed, then push ahead with policies designed to stimulate the economy which will result in the creation of actual jobs. I am not a fan of privitization for it's own sake, but pork-barrel politics in Japan have reached epidemic proportions and the government's continued access to the postal savings is a key component of this system.

In addition, I think it's fair to say that Japan doesn't need to pour concrete along any more riverbanks, mountainsides or coastlines. There's no more need for sparsely populated villages to be served by 6 lane highways and bridges which lead nowhere. The aesthetics of unchecked patronage and the construction state that it spawned are nearly as offensive as the damage it's done to the economy.

Before he proceeds, Koizumi needs to outline, in detail, how he intends to use the money to stimulate growth. However, it's painfully clear that things cannot be allowed to continue as they have for the past 6 decades.

You mean the six decades which have seen Japan go from a heap of rubble to the world's number two economic power and number one creditor nation, right?

You mean the six decades which have seen Japan go from a heap of rubble to the world's number two economic power and number one creditor nation, right?

It's EXACTLY that kind of thinking that has resulted in Japan limping through the past nearly decade-and-a-half in a state of semi-permanent recession. In case you haven't noticed, it's not 1945 anymore. The world has moved on and Japan needs to do the same.

And isn't "currying favour" with voters by providing them with jobs and infrastructure entirely legitimate democratic politics?

It's bribery, and a country which has been underperforming so spectacularly for so long, can ill-afford it.

Here's a right wing thinktank licking its chops over the prospect of privatisation and explaining exactly who it helps:

"If the Japanese public abandons the caution fostered by unlimited government guarantees and preferential tax treatment for PSS deposits, and begins to invest their savings in private banks and other investment vehicles -- the country's economy will never be the same. Huge amounts of pent-up capital would then be moved into private financial markets. This would help to bolster not only Japan's incipient economic recovery but, over time, financial markets around the world."

"This would help to bolster not only Japan's incipient economic recovery but, over time, financial markets around the world."

While I dislike rightwing think tanks as much as the next guy, in what universe is this a bad thing?

I'd love to see you put this one to a New Orleans audience about now.

"The typical Japanese retail investor remains conservative in their outlook. Many confuse investment and speculation and equate the stock market with a casino. As a result, they have preferred the security of guaranteed bank deposits and especially that of the Postal Savings System (PSS), even though this has resulted in annual interest rate returns of less than 1%."

Let's have that again in English:

"The typical Japanese citizen remains somewhat capitalist-communist in attitude. Many correctly realise that if they invest their money in the private banking system it will be used for speculation in that international casino, the stock market, rather than being spent on projects they can see and appreciate in Japan; bridges, dams, post offices near where they live, and so on. As a result they have preferred the security of guaranteed bank deposits and especially that of the Postal Savings System (PSS), even though this has resulted in annual interest rate returns of less than 1%."

Putting security over percentage interest return, putting public works over private profit, putting utility over capitalist "streamlining" and "synergies" (which call themselves "efficiency" without saying who they're efficient for), and thinking of the international capitalist system as a "casino", these are what make the Japanese "communist capitalists". And what Koizumi, caving in with admirable "resolution" to the demands of international capital markets, is doing is trying to make the Japanese "capitalist capitalists". Great, just what the world needs; more capitalism.

"Of great concern to many Japanese is the destruction of Japan's once legendary natural beauty by massive and often unnecessary public works undertaken by the Construction Ministry and its subcontractors. The construction industry is so large in Japan that the name dokken kokka ("construction state") is commonly used by Japanese pundits when describing their country. Public works are huge business in Japan for contractors and government bureaucrats alike, and spending in this area has grown to two or three times that of other industrialized countries. The result of these environmentally disruptive works, according to Kerr, is that Japan has become arguably the world's ugliest country.

Kerr told Asia Times Online: "Speaking to civic groups and others around the country, I have met a great many people who are outraged with what is happening to the environment here. There is a dialogue going on, even within the government - but change is still outweighed by the vast power of the bureaucratic machine."

A look at the concrete-gray coasts of Japan will humble any visitor previously excited by the scenic pictures in travel books and on postcards. According to Kerr in the book Dogs and Demons, 97% of all major rivers in Japan are dammed - and all are lined with concrete. By 1993 an astounding 55% of Japan's coastlines were covered in concrete laid down by government programs. The gray concrete of the once-natural beach lines is punctuated by piles of countless concrete and iron tetrapods - four-legged anti-erosion barriers that look like large jacks and are often as large as bulldozers.

"I miss the natural scenery from my childhood days," said Aichi resident Makiko Kato. "When I was young, it was much more beautiful. These days, the beaches and rivers are artificial, everything is concrete."

Driving through Aichi, the host region of the expo itself, it is not uncommon to see hillsides covered in massive, grid-like masks of reinforced concrete, apparently designed to prevent erosion. Hiking through even remote trails in the sparsely populated area of Shitara in eastern Aichi, it is common to come across mountain streams that have been paved under with squared-off concrete waterways, waterfalls that now trickle along stained concrete chutes. The whole country, it seems, is one giant construction project."

Japanese people are legitimately worried about these things. Going to the beach nearly anywhere on the Pacific coast has almost become a joke because it's nearly guaranteed to be indescribably ugly.

I suspect people in New Orleans would have been rather happy to have a bit of concrete between them and the sea. And sea levels are rising thanks to climate change. So tell me, are the private banks who profit from post office privatisation going to construct barriers against that?

Tell me, do you agree or disagree with this statement: "Capitalism prefers instability to stability and cure to prevention. Rather than letting governments prevent disasters by programs of public works, capitalists would prefer disasters to happen periodically, claiming lives, and the survivors be compensated afterwards from insurance schemes... assuming they've signed up for them."

I suspect people in New Orleans would have been rather happy to have a bit of concrete between them and the sea.

The difference here is that they actually needed it. We could turn this into a discussion on the merits of the construction state, but the point is that Japan is not working, and hasn't been for a long time. The new global situation requires new approaches and a shake-up of the overly cosy relationship between government and the construction companies is at least a start.