Iraq elections: could they be the ever-elusive "turning point"?

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I'm not particularly optimistic, but in the best-case scenario, with a coalition government that included Sunni representatives, might this be the point at which things slowly started to improve?

― TPL, Thursday, 15 December 2005 13:44 (twenty years ago)

Just wait to those Iranian sponsored Shia fundamentalists get their feet under the table - then the fun begins

― We Buy a Hammer For Dadaismus (Dada), Thursday, 15 December 2005 13:48 (twenty years ago)

interesting paradox, US policy in the Middle East basically amounts to two things: introduce democracy, alienate political islam. Unfortunately, these policies are not necessarily consistent; indeed one appears to directly contradict the other. So which one's gonna give?

― Pete W (peterw), Thursday, 15 December 2005 14:17 (twenty years ago)

http://images.google.com/images?q=tbn:ePwlm3M5RNcJ:www.picdiary.de/pics/pictures/272.jpg

― viborgu, Thursday, 15 December 2005 14:45 (twenty years ago)

Even Bush seems to realize this isn't all -- he muttered something in the speech yesterday about how there was still a long way to go, etc.

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 15 December 2005 15:15 (twenty years ago)

About 12 per cent of Iraqis have said they'd vote for Saddam if he was allowed to stand...

I think the biggest problem with the whole thing is that Iraq, like Yugoslavia and a whole bunch of African countries, is an artificially constructed state created bt drawing lines on a map. It is so divided along religious, ethnic and geographical lines that it's always going to struggle to work as a democratic whole.

Maybe it would do best being re-jigged along the lines of the UAE, where you have half a dozen largely independent emirates working under a loose federation, kind of like a more laid-back USA.

― Hello Sunshine (Hello Sunshine), Thursday, 15 December 2005 15:19 (twenty years ago)

They're sure to find those weapons of mass destruction now.

― DV (dirtyvicar), Thursday, 15 December 2005 15:29 (twenty years ago)

I heard some analyst yesterday comparing it to post-aparthied South Africa... that the Sunnis (the whites) will need to have their new role defined for them, by somebody. Unfortunately, there isn't clear leadership and so they're raging like all getout. I think the Kurds will ultimately secede, though, and Turkey will attack.

― andy --, Thursday, 15 December 2005 17:33 (twenty years ago)

Then there'll be an Iran-style fundamentalist revolution in what's left of Iraq.

― Hello Sunshine (Hello Sunshine), Thursday, 15 December 2005 17:46 (twenty years ago)

I'm unclear on the meaning of "improvement" in the top post. However, it's interesting that many years ago, in his utter cynicism, Noam Chomsky predicted that the US would never allow an actual democratic system to develop in Iraq because it would inevitably lead to the above-mentioned Shiite fundamentalist upwelling and Kurdish drive for secession. I have to wonder now that the worst has come to pass, is the US leadership just clueless, or do they have some ulterior motive for fomenting political instability in the region?

They're sure to find those weapons of mass destruction now.
You make me chuckle. *guffaw*...*guffaw*

― another_Oakland_radical, Thursday, 15 December 2005 18:05 (twenty years ago)

is the US leadership just clueless, or do they have some ulterior motive for fomenting political instability in the region?

can't it be both? what happens when the rapture-happy fundies come up against the empire-happy PNAC types?

― kingfish holiday travesty (kingfish 2.0), Thursday, 15 December 2005 18:06 (twenty years ago)

I'm thinking the fundamentalists have their heads too far up their asses to be effective strategists and they're generally just tools for the others...could be way off though. I've known some very smart fundamentalists.

What do you think about this story of Pentagon plans for a worldwide campaign of disinformation [BSP]?

You're either a tool...

― viborgu, Thursday, 15 December 2005 18:14 (twenty years ago)

Iraqi elections are really swell, but that wasn't the stated reason for invading Iraq. According to rednecks across America, the current reason is that Saddam was 'evil.' That's a very unique reason for invading a country, because it's not like Fidel Castro, Kim Jong-Il, whoever's running Serbia, and every African warlord is any more or less 'evil' than Saddam. As soon as the U.S. troops try and pull out, the Iraqi government gets attacked or overthrown, guaranteed. That will necessitate the U.S. keeping a certain troop level in Iraq for the rest of our lives. But, um, yeah, it's really swell that some fucking Shia got to pull the lever this week. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.

― Pussy Odor, Thursday, 15 December 2005 21:15 (twenty years ago)

I'll predict an Allawi-led secular government backed by Sunni and Kurdish groups. It'll be enough for Bush to declare victory and withdraw a swathe of troops. Ultimately the Islamic Shia parties won't worry too much because under the federal arrangement they'll control the south anyway. The Kurds will control their own bit, and the Sunni triangle will remain lawless and ungovernable. It'll be another faux turning point. Months and months of negotiating a new government, euphoria when a U.S.-friendly, secular one emerges, followed by a continuation of the insurgency and continued weakening of the central government until it's virtually meaningless. Ultimately it'll be an Iranian-backed Islamic regime in the south, a Kurdish regime in the north, and civil war in the middle.

― jz, Friday, 16 December 2005 13:05 (twenty years ago)

... then there's always the problem that the educated middle class is predominantly Sunni

― We Buy a Hammer For Dadaismus (Dada), Friday, 16 December 2005 13:09 (twenty years ago)

"I'll predict an Allawi-led secular government backed by Sunni and Kurdish groups"

hmm, first election returns are coming in and this doesn't look likely. Civil war, heeeeeeeere we gooooooooooooooooooooo

― Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Monday, 19 December 2005 22:58 (twenty years ago)

Link?

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Monday, 19 December 2005 23:06 (twenty years ago)

this is just AP/Yahoo, I'm lookin for more specific stuff...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051219/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

― Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Monday, 19 December 2005 23:14 (twenty years ago)

Something more.

What happens next is...amusing.

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, 21 December 2005 17:30 (twenty years ago)

I am surprised I have not yet posted a cynical quip to this thread. I continue to wonder if I am a fool to try to manufacture any small measure of hope in regard to that poor, masticated semi-nation, but it would certainly be nice if the USA could ease away from the mess we've made and let this elected government sweat out its own way forward, one that is informed by its citizens and not by our grasping corporate handmaiden of an administration and our bullet-headed military brass. My worser nature continues to whisper in my ear: you fool!

― Aimless (Aimless), Wednesday, 21 December 2005 17:49 (twenty years ago)

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