Rick Santorum '06

BY BRETT LIEBERMAN
Of Our Washington Bureau

National Republican leaders remain hopeful that U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum can turn around his struggling campaign, but they might have already written off the Pennsylvania race to Democrat Robert P. Casey Jr., if their checkbooks are any indication.

Neither the National Republican Committee nor the National Republican Senatorial Committee has reserved time at Pennsylvania television stations for "independent expenditure" ads supporting Santorum, R-Pa. Neither committee has spent any money on such ads for Santorum, the GOP's No. 3 leader in the Senate.

Independent expenditures are advertisements done without the knowledge or approval of a candidate's campaign.

The national committees' spending in Pennsylvania is only a fraction of what is being spent in Ohio, Tennessee and Missouri in what they are calling a firewall strategy to limit Democrats' gains next month.

The RNC transferred slightly more than $1 million to the Republican State Committee, but those funds are to be used for all races, including three to five competitive House elections.

In contrast, the RNC and NRSC have spent more than $8 million to help Sen. Mike DeWine in Ohio, and $3.3 million for Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri.

And the National Republican Congressional Committee has given millions of dollars to help vulnerable House members, particularly in the Philadelphia suburbs.

A political analyst speculated that the national committee's lack of spending in the Pennsylvania Senate race reflects a desire to concentrate on other critical contests, and recognition that Santorum's campaign has raised a great deal of money.

"The truth probably rests a little with both sides," said Chris Borick, a political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

"I would be shocked if the strategists in the party are writing off the campaign," he said.

The GOP strategy has left Democrats playing a waiting game to see how much money Republicans put in before spending their own funds. Independent groups have filled some of the void for both parties by running their own ads.

GOP leaders insist they fully support Santorum, who trails Casey in four recent state polls, and that suggestions otherwise are "just inaccurate" wishful thinking by Democrats.

"The NRSC's strongly supporting Sen. Santorum, and all you have to do is turn on your TV now" to see, said Dan Ronayne, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

"The fact of the matter is we are, and we think Senator Santorum is well-positioned to win this race and we're actively helping," he said.

Ronayne pointed to a "coordinated" ad the committee is airing statewide. Such ads are paid for by national party committees with the consent and acknowledgment of a candidate's campaign.

Coordinated advertising is subject to much lower spending limits, near $1.5 million, which is why parties focus on independent expenditures, which have no limit.

Though Republicans have said Santorum's re-election is their top priority, unlike some other candidates, he continues to have no trouble raising the resources to fund his own aggressive television campaign.

"He doesn't need it, so why give it to him?" Republican consultant William Green asked.

Despite trailing in polls, Santorum has raised more than $20 million and has enjoyed a 2-1 cash advantage over Casey.

"The one thing I'm sure of is that he won't suffer from lack of resources," GOP strategist Charlie Gerow said.

Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, doubts money will be a deciding factor in the U.S. Senate election.

"Santorum has to turn this around, if it is even possible, on his own," he said.

But the money can make a difference in "potentially salvageable" Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee elections that could tip to either party, Sabato said.

"If the House goes Democratic, ... President Bush will need one house of Congress as a stop-gap for his point of view," he said. "Given the closeness of these three races, the GOP would be foolish not to concentrate resources on them."

The Republican Governors Association has been pouring money into other states, but has not committed additional funds to help Republican challenger Lynn Swann, who trails Gov. Ed Rendell by as much as 20 points in some polls.

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, chairman of the RGA, campaigned with Swann yesterday and announced $250,000 in new money to demonstrate that it has not given up on his campaign.

But Republicans and independent analysts said it was a drop in the bucket compared to the millions of dollars Rendell has available.