Cameron has a ten point lead. Why?

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According to The Guardian.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,,1790661,00.html
And the Lib-Dems aren't doing any good either. What do people think Cameron is going to deliver? Apart from the end of Blair? And why don't the Labour Party seem to care?

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Monday, 5 June 2006 10:08 (nineteen years ago)

Apparently the "he's fit" factor has spoken.

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Monday, 5 June 2006 10:12 (nineteen years ago)

a lot of it has to be that this has been a very bad half-year for new labour; any tory would pick up votes. between the nhs and home office crises, any amount of sleaze, and, among the tiny number of conscience voters, the continuing war, it's obvious why people hate labour.

meanwhile cameron appeals to swing voters in exactly the same way blair did in 96-7.

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Monday, 5 June 2006 10:14 (nineteen years ago)

who knew that their cyclist killing left on red transport policy would be so popular, it can't be anything else as they haven't announced a single policy that differentiates them from Labour.

― Ed (dali), Monday, 5 June 2006 10:36 (nineteen years ago)

People really, really hate this government now, and Cameron's softly-softly approach has neutralised the "it's us or the Tories!" factor upon which they've relied from now on.

Also, there'll be a lot of people voting for the first time at the next election who have no real memory of a Tory government but a stack of reasons why they resent New Labour.

― Matt DC (Matt DC), Monday, 5 June 2006 10:53 (nineteen years ago)

The most interesting thing from that poll is that 41% of the public said that the most important issue facing the UK today was "immigration". Cameron's managed to appeal to the nationalists without really having to do much, it's a good trick.

You put those poll figures into an electoral calculator though and the Tories still don't get a majority. Assuming the usual tactical bias between labour and lib dem voters, you'd get this:

CON: 317 (up 119)
LAB: 270 (down 86)
LIB: 28 (down 34)

Which goes to prove the point that the Tories will make their best gains by policies that would appeal to Lib Dem voters: ie, middle class liberals who have no truck with socialism or any other "dangerous" left wing ideals.

Campbell was a fucking ridiculous choice for the Lib Dems to be honest, there's about 25 photogenic pseudo-Camerons they could have appointed, and instead they go for some doddering old fart who is going to basically kill them off as a feasible third choice party. Well done.

― Dom Passantino (Dom Passantino), Monday, 5 June 2006 10:55 (nineteen years ago)

It also doesn't give us a chance of a Lib/Lab pact either. A Con/Lib pact, however...

― Dom Passantino (Dom Passantino), Monday, 5 June 2006 10:57 (nineteen years ago)

A bloody Coldplay government. That's all we need.

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Monday, 5 June 2006 11:09 (nineteen years ago)

But they couldn't be sure the pretty boys weren't, y'know (*makes 'drinky drink' gesture with hand*)...or worse. Whereas sagely Ming seemed a safer option for temporary stabilisation.

― Konal Doddz (blueski), Monday, 5 June 2006 11:22 (nineteen years ago)

I mean, the public didn't really mind that Kennedy was a pisshead or that Ashdown fucked anything with a hole and a pulse... maybe the Lib Dems should just be the party of hell raisers. Although getting rent boys to shit on you may be a little bit extreme.

― Dom Passantino (Dom Passantino), Monday, 5 June 2006 11:24 (nineteen years ago)

xpost
It's all yellow.

― Billy Dods (Billy Dods), Monday, 5 June 2006 11:24 (nineteen years ago)

or not xpost...

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Monday, 5 June 2006 11:48 (nineteen years ago)

that is teh question...

― mark grout (mark grout), Monday, 5 June 2006 11:50 (nineteen years ago)

that 41% stat is fucked!

do 41% of people have really easy lives or what? cos i really don't see how immigration could top anyone's list of anything? i can see how people might object to uncontrolled immigration (and i guess people be conflating the home office's multiple fuck-ups with immigration as a whole), but how in hell is it priority #1?

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Monday, 5 June 2006 11:52 (nineteen years ago)

Have you opened a newspaper in the last five years?

― Matt DC (Matt DC), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:04 (nineteen years ago)

those pesky tabloids eh? (xpost)

― Konal Doddz (blueski), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:08 (nineteen years ago)

not really!

xpost

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:10 (nineteen years ago)

but that's kind of what i mean: immigration has almost no palpable effect on day-to-day life, or not on 41% of people it doesn't.

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:11 (nineteen years ago)

Has immigration rhetoric added an undercurrent of "and those arabs, they want to blow us up" in the last year?

― Andrew Farrell (afarrell), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:15 (nineteen years ago)

The most interesting thing from that poll is that 41% of the public said that the most important issue facing the UK today was "immigration".

it doesn't actually say this in the article does it?

where is the correlation between 41% favouring Cameron and 41% saying immigration is problem #1? where is that second stat actually coming from?

― Konal Doddz (blueski), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:15 (nineteen years ago)

The 41% immigration point is in the full article, refernced over at: http://politicalbetting.com/

― Dom Passantino (Dom Passantino), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:18 (nineteen years ago)

yeah.

xpost

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:19 (nineteen years ago)

http://images.thesun.co.uk/picture/0,,2006251606,00.gif

― Andrew Farrell (afarrell), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:22 (nineteen years ago)

Race Relations stroke Immigration?

That's one heck of a catch-all category.

― mark grout (mark grout), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:23 (nineteen years ago)

economy 10%!!!!

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:26 (nineteen years ago)

Ahh...now race relations and immigration are pretty different issues... its possible people could be highlighting the former as an issue from a non-reactionary standpoint.

― hobart paving (hobart paving), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:27 (nineteen years ago)

The Sun article also points out that Tony Blair's approval rating is minus 41%, which is what you get when you subtract his 'dislike' percent from his 'like'.

― Andrew Farrell (afarrell), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:28 (nineteen years ago)

...but I wonder what sort of effect polls like this have. I mean, a lot of people see it and think "why is THAT the number one issue?", but then do other people see it and think "well, lots of other people are worried about that, perhaps I should be too"?

― hobart paving (hobart paving), Monday, 5 June 2006 12:29 (nineteen years ago)

Just to repeat Enrique

economy 10%!!!!

That explains a lot to me. Blair and Brown's one spiel has been - look at the economy, we didn't fuck it up like they said we would. But it turns out no-one gives a damn. Presumably because they don't feel it's going so badly?

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Monday, 5 June 2006 22:10 (nineteen years ago)

Man, I look forward to seeing all you whiny "I hate Blair"ites waking up under the Tories for a few years.

― pleased to mitya (mitya), Monday, 5 June 2006 22:45 (nineteen years ago)

What, just because Blair's not a Tory it means we have to like him?

― chap who would dare to be a nerd, not a geek (chap), Monday, 5 June 2006 23:02 (nineteen years ago)

No. Just because Cameron is not Blair doesn't mean he's better.

― pleased to mitya (mitya), Monday, 5 June 2006 23:07 (nineteen years ago)

I'm not saying he is. In fact I'm sure he's worse. Blair is still bad, though.

― chap who would dare to be a nerd, not a geek (chap), Monday, 5 June 2006 23:11 (nineteen years ago)

Britain seems to have become a very scared, inward-looking country. Both here and in the US, politics is largely about being afraid of foreign people, but in the US there's a much more positive and meaningful idea of nationality than there is here (whatever you think of its contents and manifestations). People are shit at being English now. There's no national unity or drive to do anything, no strength or focus. When the only interest people have in politics is negative, no wonder they collpase into the warm smile and bumbly demeanour of a David Cameron, like the country can escape into some Hugh Grant film. National issues have become a downer and charismatic pandering to this desire to disengage from them isn't going to help.

― Ogmor Roundtrouser (Ogmor Roundtrouser), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 02:45 (nineteen years ago)

Man, I look forward to seeing all you whiny "I hate Blair"ites waking up under the Tories for a few years.
New Labour takes a page from the Dems again? "You can't criticize us, at least we're not THEM!"

― milo z (mlp), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 02:52 (nineteen years ago)

'Man, I look forward to seeing all you whiny "I hate Blair"ites waking up under the Tories for a few years.'

Why would you look forward to this?

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:29 (nineteen years ago)

Because we should hold on to nurse for fear of something worse?

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:32 (nineteen years ago)

Neal Lawson on Cameron in the Graun today

― Dave B (daveb), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:34 (nineteen years ago)

Why are the government not really going for Cameron, is what I really want to know? That whole davethecameleon stuff was lame. They need to start plain lashing out at him. Something along these lines...
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article625030.ece
...but stronger.

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:38 (nineteen years ago)

Sorry, i notice it's one of those la-di-da portfolio articles...

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:39 (nineteen years ago)

Try this for a thought experiment. What if it's actually in the objective interests of the middle and working classes to vote for Cameron at the next election because New Labour has become so rightwing and out of touch?

Yes, but it isn't, is it? The fundmental misconception that Cameron's Tories would be doing anything different from (insert name here)'s New Labour cripples the argument before it's argued. It's the Americanisation of British politics, where the Left has been banished to the extremist sidelines and the only "arguments" now allowed are between the Right and the Centre Right.

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:42 (nineteen years ago)

that's an idiotic article though!

labour spelling out that they are T.O.R.I.E.S. is not going to win it, i'm afraid, because uh, hello, they are L.A.B.O.U.R., the geniuses who brought you the iraq war and pfis.

xpost

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:43 (nineteen years ago)

The fundmental misconception that Cameron's Tories would be doing anything different from (insert name here)'s New Labour cripples the argument before it's argued.

no, i think he knows that, he's saying it would make labour left-wing. probably foolhardy -- labour will never be left-wing.

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:44 (nineteen years ago)

And doesn't that Lawson article just kind of assume that Cameron will actually be in charge when he becomes PM? I don't hear any liberal sentiments coming from anyone else in the conservative party. Davies as Home Secretary, Liam Fox in health, Hague as foriegn secretary? Right bunch of lefties...

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:44 (nineteen years ago)

If Labour move back to the left and the Lib Dems move back to the centre, surely that helps them both a _lot_ more than the opposite?

― Dom Passantino (Dom Passantino), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:45 (nineteen years ago)

Also, the term 'try this for a thought experiment' - shudder...

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:45 (nineteen years ago)

don't try it...

Not if they're not elected it doesn't.
(Dom xpost)

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:47 (nineteen years ago)

This is the thing, it's near impossible for the Tories to form the next government. They'll either have to form a coalition government or we do the two elections in one year thing again (which'll kill off Labour for a good two terms if it happens).

Basically, they need to get Blair the fuck out of there, get Brown to be prudence... TO THE XTREEEM as a leader, and hope that some Tory members start aspyxiating in sex games again.

― Dom Passantino (Dom Passantino), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:49 (nineteen years ago)

We'rrrrrrrrre doomed

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:50 (nineteen years ago)

brown freezing public sector pay: speakin' to tha BASE there...

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:51 (nineteen years ago)

(freezing "fucking idiot corporate know-nothings in top nhs positions" pay is good policy though.)

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:51 (nineteen years ago)

DON'T TRY IT

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:52 (nineteen years ago)

Cameron would make public sector workers pay for privilege of working in the public sector.

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 09:53 (nineteen years ago)

What if, and as an idea it seems to be popular amongst some folks i have spoken to, them LP skips Brown and moves straight to some new fellow?

I just can't see Brown cutting it.

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:23 (nineteen years ago)

I don't know who the new fellow would be though.

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:24 (nineteen years ago)

Patricia Hewitt?

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:25 (nineteen years ago)

The new issue of Viz has a cut-out England flag on the centre spread. Acroos the horizontal bar it says "I'M NOT RACIST, I JUST WANT ENGLAND TO WIN". Bah. Despressing.

"I'M NOT RACIST, I JUST DON'T WANT TO VOTE FOR A SCOTSMAN"

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:26 (nineteen years ago)

the observer was saying 'alan johnson', which would be funny cos of the 'peep show' thing, but no-one knows who he is.

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:28 (nineteen years ago)

Alan Johnson = too working class

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:29 (nineteen years ago)

(i am among those who don't know who he is.)

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:30 (nineteen years ago)

Wait till he starts playing croquet on the lawn then you'll hear about him

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:32 (nineteen years ago)

"As I see it I am the only alternative for the premier in England. I believe Britain could benefit from a fascist leader," said Momus, arriving at Victoria Station in a well-publicized return to the UK.

― Momus (Momus), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:32 (nineteen years ago)

David Davies was on GMTV this morning, apparently he had a break in, fair enough. He's wanting all home owners to be able to have electro stun guns to protect from burglars.

His house has a ~~sofisti~~ very good burglar alarm system, which was switched off as he had visitors. The burglars never disturbed anyone. So, his stun gun would have been useless. In fact, it may well have got nicked as well.

― mark grout (mark grout), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:39 (nineteen years ago)

He's wanting all home owners to be able to have electro stun guns to protect from burglars.

I imagine some burglars own homes too

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:46 (nineteen years ago)

"I'm not saying every home owner should have one. I'm saying every home owner should have the access to one"

This was the runner up in the cons. leadership election, right?

― mark grout (mark grout), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:48 (nineteen years ago)

Fiona wiped the floor with him..

F (parting comment) "Get a dog then"
DD: "I don't want a dog. (sniffy). I want a stun gun"

― mark grout (mark grout), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:49 (nineteen years ago)

awesome crime prevention strategy there.

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 10:49 (nineteen years ago)

ooh uppity socialist Fiona Phillips!

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 11:01 (nineteen years ago)

that is amazing from Davies! will he throw the stun gun out of the pram if they don't win the next election?

― Konal Doddz (blueski), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 11:11 (nineteen years ago)

*wonders whether how to point that this is a different David Davies (MP for Monmouth) without embarrassing grouty*

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 11:19 (nineteen years ago)

I don't care. They all look the same to me.

Tory, right?

― mark grout (mark grout), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 11:19 (nineteen years ago)

Tory yes and Right yes

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 11:20 (nineteen years ago)

Neil Kinnock managed to get ratings like this all the time whilst Thatcher was PM but he never got anywhere near No 10.

Whilst I've heard a groundswell of people saying that they are Conservative again, rather than keeping quiet or being vague, I haven't heard anybody talk really positively about David Cameron so far.

I think that so far the Conservatives are just biding their time for now, it's not like people are generally unhappy with government policy so much as feel that it's gone stale. As other people have said, it's not like the Conservatives would have done any of it differently. There is a theory that the opposition don't win elections, governments lose them - and i'd have said that was mainly what Cameron et al are banking on.

― T B (T B), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 11:35 (nineteen years ago)

well in hindsight isn't that how Labour won in '97?

― Konal Doddz (blueski), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 11:38 (nineteen years ago)

Whilst I've heard a groundswell of people saying that they are Conservative again, rather than keeping quiet or being vague

Or voting New Labour, I think you mean

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 11:41 (nineteen years ago)

Looking absently at the title, I had a brief hallucination that this was an old Big Brother thread...

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 11:53 (nineteen years ago)

"It would be a tremendous personal challenge. Participating in ~~Big Brother~~ Government is something I want to do for me, despite friends discouraging me from applying. I think I would do it even if it
wasn't on TV or had prize money."

― Onimo (GerryNemo), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 12:17 (nineteen years ago)

Does that mean Steph would get Prescott's job?

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 12:20 (nineteen years ago)

'the observer was saying 'alan johnson'...but no-one knows who he is.'

I don't think it really matters who it is, Cameron didn't have any previous with the public, no-one outside politicos knew who the fck he was until he won the leadership, they just need someone who is not so closely linked with Blair/Brown, moderately good looking and not closely linked with Blair/Brown. Just as long as they are not closely linked with Blair/Brown.

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 12:28 (nineteen years ago)

And NOT SCOTTISH: Quentin Letts writes

― Marcello Carlin (nostudium), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 12:34 (nineteen years ago)

Alan Johnson is an ex-postman and a former leading Union official. The British media will love that.

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 12:39 (nineteen years ago)

What I found was for a long while people who were tradionally Conservative voters were very quiet on the matter. I knew some life-long Conservatives who just didn't vote at all for a while. These being the rank and file that would always vote Conservative rather than the small number of people (in comparison) who change their vote from election to election that actually make the difference to the result. Something similar happened in the early 80s with Labour voters, they didn't go away, they just couldn't bring themselves to vote.

With relation to the point I made previously about governments losing elections, yes, that's very true of '97 but equally true of 1964 and 1979, and can be applied to others. I also think that if an opposition is publically unpalatable like Neil Kinnock or Michael Foot, or Michael Howard that helps an otherwise unpopular government keep in power.

― T B (T B), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 14:52 (nineteen years ago)

Something similar happened in the early 80s with Labour voters, they didn't go away, they just couldn't bring themselves to vote.

So what's new?

― Who Are You... The Nerve... I Wanna Get Out, I Wanna Get Out (Dada), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 14:54 (nineteen years ago)

'Alan Johnson is an ex-postman and a former leading Union official. The British media will love that'

No-one the LP pick is going to be beloved of the British media.

― Ned T.Rifle (nedtrifle), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 20:34 (nineteen years ago)

That graphic upthread with the results that says:

What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Race Relations / Immigration 41%
NHS / Hospitals 38%
Crime / Law & Order 36%
Defence / Foreign Affairs 27%
etc, etc, etc.

...well it adds up to 209%, which is obviously impossible, so they can't have asked people what is the most important issue, they must have said something like "What issues do you think are important?" In other words people had multiple votes. 41% still seems ridiculously high, though.

― Teh HoBBercraft (the pirate king), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 20:49 (nineteen years ago)

Something similar happened in the early 80s with Labour voters, they didn't go away, they just couldn't bring themselves to vote.

That's not true, they switched to the SDP. In 1979 Labour got 11.5 million votes, in 1983 they got just 8.5 million (compared to the Tories who got over 13 million both times round). Meanwhile in 1979 the Liberals got 5.3 million votes, but in 1983 the SDP-Liberal alliance got 7.8 million. So of the the 3 million 'missing' Labour voters, there's a good chance that 2.5 million of them switched to the SDP.

The SDP-Libs in 1983 got a far higher number of votes and a far higher share of the votes than the Lib Dems did in 2005, but ended up with far fewer seats, mainly because the Tories were so much stronger then.

― Teh HoBBercraft (the pirate king), Tuesday, 6 June 2006 21:01 (nineteen years ago)

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