Cricket Winter 2006/07 THE ASHES

"Mate, it's gonna be 5-0...uh, we winning of course..."

Perhaps the current rain in Sydney will spare them further humiliation on this tour. At least until the First Test starts.

So, urgent and key questions :

1) 4 or 5 bowlers? It's v. important that we don't lose the first test, but 4 bowlers is too negative. But it's a hell of a tail if we play say Mahmood, Hoggard, Harmy and Monty at 8-11.

2) Reduce the tail by Playing Giles? I don't like this, but I think it might happen. Giles has not batted in a test for ages and is less likely to skittle top-order batsmen than Panesar. Both will play in Sydney and possibly Adelaide?

3) Which batsman to leave out. Looks like it's going to be Collingwood, which means a top 5 of Strauss, Tres, Cook, Bell and KP. I'd leave out Tres - he's surely not ready mentally or in form. I'd open with Cook and Strauss, then Bell, KP and Collingwood. Bell at 3 does worry me a bit though.

4) If 4 pacemen, who is the 4th? Mahmood is probably the best suited to hard wickets, but will his poor 1-day form affect his game? Plunkett I think is lucky to be on this tour and I can't see him contributing. So, I'd go for Anderson IF we play 4 seamers. Hopefully his action is more grooved-in than when last seen (economy figures v NSW suggest that it is), but that worry apart I like his ability to move the ball both ways off the seam and get a bit of swing too.

5) Wicketkeeper. It's going to be Jones, but I'd go for Read. I don't feel too strongly about it though.

We'll see whether it all gets too much for Flintoff..

How do we think the Aussies are doing? Hussey looking like he'll be a key player already. Have the Aussies hung on to too many of the old guard. Shane Watson?

james anderson or paul collingwood = i'd go collingwood, fletcher will go anderson. or giles. argh.

shane watson will have a pretty decent series with the bat

hussey will do ok, but not spectacularly.

gilchrist will play at least one match-defining innings

trescothick should be batting at 4, between bell and kp

england tend to live and die as a team. what we really need is for someone (ie KP/Harmison) to buck the trend if all is going pear-shaped and play an innings for the ages/bowl an inspired spell

Harmison will do better than most of us are predicting. I'm not even sure I'd pick him on form atm.

As for Giles vs Panesar, Monty is absolutely the only choice. Giles *might* add 20 runs to the total, but the opportunity cost is the chance that Panesar could skittle players early on before they reach their centuries - and none of the mnatches are going to be as close as 20 runs, I'll wager.

Giles is a backup. If Monty falls apart then fine, bring him in. But to start with the reserve? That would be just pointless.

Also, Chris Read is wildly out of form. Jones has experience against Australia. Seems an obvious one to me.

and c'mon, it was pretty harsh, the way it was done.

I don't think Eng are weak, we simply DO possess the players now that can turn a game on its head - so Harmison may not come good, but it wouldn't surprise me if he produced a spell that could define the series, a spell that really could shake up a lot of the Aussie batsmen.

And the Aussies players must be very wound up, too. We'll see what the home advantage does to their game, and whether they have hung on to a few of their old guard, not least John Buchanan, who is doing the job till the world cup.

Tres at 4? Interesting idea, but no. Tres shouldn't be touring.

he has hit two fifties in about 20 Test + ODI innings against them, Read has only faced them once (and admittedly gotten a second-ball duck), but that argument doesn't explain the handling of the situation.

In the Ashes series he averaged 25 with an 85, a 40, a 30 and a 27 n.o.

He'll need to do better this time, but at least he has an idea of what's required. The management clearly believe that Read is vulnerable with the bat against the v.best.

I think five bowlers is a viable strategy but dropping Collingwood would be counterproductive, he's the only middle order player you can see grinding out an innings a la Thorpey. As suggested by Dr C I'd prefer Cook / Strauss to open, followed by the usual middle order. Bell will do fine, he's a totally different batsman now.

I suspect Hussey's going to have a monstrous series, this worries me, but all told I don't think it's as doom and gloomy as all that. Warne aside the Aus attack doesn't really look that worrying any more, Bracken, Watson et al look useful but nothing more.

indeed, he's gone home.

(but sadly not Ramps) :-(

I really hope they don't try and rush Vaughan into the team.

Bell was much happier batting at 5, but cant really have collingwood batting higher than that, so I guess it is going to be
Strauss, Cook, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Flintoff, Jones, Giles, Hoggard, Harmison and... I wouldn't be surprised if they go with 2 spinners in Monty. I am not convinced by Mahmood at all. Though Fletcher probably is.

Our batsmen should be scoring the runs, besides.

ANYWAY, here's some light relief...

http://img488.imageshack.us/img488/9739/kpee7.jpg

You can however be out "time travel bubble ignites wicket" it's Pietersons most common method of dismissal.

www.tntmagazine.com/ashes/tomvconal/

Sadly, that commerical always seems to be followed by that wacky Advanced Hair Studio commercial with Warne, Gooch and a text message.

PROS

and then it cuts to warney and it says

& CONS...

oh good grief...

GLENN McGrath is about to make another impact in the world of batting by wielding a willow the likes of which hasn't been seen for decades.

When he next strides to the wicket in his customary No.11 spot, McGrath will carry with him a bat weighing a whopping three pounds two ounces - 1.42 kilograms - making it the heaviest in world cricket, heavier even than the monsters used by Indian champion Sachin Tendulkar and South African big-hitter Lance Klusener.

If I select "Ashes Mode Off" all the sports headlines are about The Ashes yet if I select "Ashes Mode On" all the sports headlines are about football (albeit with an Ashes link up the top)
:-/

australia 290-7 at close, i predict.

Right, bed. When I wake up I expect...300-0, unfortunately.

I really should go to bed, but I'd like to see a wicket. Not sure I can afford to stay up *all* night though

A mere 2/141 so far. I say 4/400 at stumps!

I fear for England when Warne gets bowling on this wicket. And unless we can scuttle a few in the morning I can see the follow on being a major problem

Any chance of rain?!?

Brisbane 30° Fine

Also - 9 overs from Pietersen? What are the odds on us playing both spinners for the rest of the series?

Yes. And guess what......it'll turn as well when Warne bowls.

I think the Pietersen overs were a symptom of effectively being a bowler short, not any comment on the pitch. Anderson's figures don't look great either.

I was offered a bet last night that Ian Bell will go for less than 10. Din't take it, because I don't think he'll make double figures either.

If the batters get in then they'll be fine, Bell's improved enormously since last summer, Strauss and Pietersen are hardly rubbish and Cook looks a good player, I worry about him against Warne but his technique against seam is excellent, plus he has carted the Australians for a double hundred before now. Everyone always forgets Collingwood, which I suspect may be a good thing, he is too little praised and that's ideal. Jorries me, but then he always does. Fletcher seems to be of the opinion that he's suited to australian pitches because he's primarily a back-foot player, but then again, so's Read. We shall see.

We had a shit day, we've had them before, we'll have them again. This is not a bad side, unfortunately they bowled like the Somerset second XI this morning, I do not anticipate a repeat performance.

(TOO OBVIOUS?!?)

Pressure is really on Harmison today. Freddie can't carry the team the whole winter. If he gets injured we're fucked.
Last night I woke up and turned tv on only to see Pietersen get injured sliding for the ball. Just like simon jones did 4 years ago. Thankfully he's ok.