Ségolène Royal: C/D?

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She easily won the socialist primaries, so I guess I'll have to get behind her, but I can't get very excited...

― is anyone anticipating the new Baaderonixx? (baaderonixx), Friday, 17 November 2006 08:13 (nineteen years ago)

A Royal President would be pretty classic, but other than that: no idea.

― StanM (StanM), Friday, 17 November 2006 08:15 (nineteen years ago)

classic right now! i suspect/fear that she is too much of a pragmatist (ie admires blair too much) for the general warm fuzzy feeling about her to last if she does become president - but for now, classic!

― The Lex (The Lex), Friday, 17 November 2006 09:13 (nineteen years ago)

I can't imagine her beating Sarkozy. He's a consummate professional, one of the few top French politicians who has never put a foot wrong. She's already put her foot in her mouth on a few occasions; she's bound to make some enormous gaffe at some point. Imagewise, she comes across as a bit of a cold fish, compared with Sarkozy's populist "man of the people" act. Also, the fact that she's a woman probably shaves one or two percentage points off her vote, which could matter in a close election. Despite her current popularity in the polls, I think Strauss-Khan would have actually stood a better chance at beating Sarkozy.

― Revivalist (Revivalist), Friday, 17 November 2006 09:19 (nineteen years ago)

i kind of like the idea of her and angela merkel as the avatars of old europe.

http://www.yanous.com/news/editorial/img/Royal.jpg http://www.bmfsfj.de/RedaktionBMFSFJ/Internetredaktion/Inhalte-statisch/Bilder/Ministerium-Geschichte-Merkel,property=bild,width=176,height=237.jpg

― gypsy mothra (gypsy mothra), Friday, 17 November 2006 09:19 (nineteen years ago)

Revivalist do u hate womynzz??? Or just logic?

How is Sarkozy a "consummate professional" unless you think he meant to call poor people 'scum' in which case he is just a poor judge of how to get the french vote.

And about popularity in polls not equating to being able to win in a popular vote, plz to explain???

― richardk (Richard K), Friday, 17 November 2006 09:51 (nineteen years ago)

I don't hate women, I'm just being realist. I think it would be good to see a female president in France. But there will be a very small number of people who may not vote for Royal because she's a woman. In a close election, that may matter. I think the same was true for Merkel; she probably lost a percentage point or two on account of her being a woman.

Calling people 'scum' (actually not a great translation of 'racaille', scum is a bit stronger) is definitely the act of a 'consummate professional' trying to stoke up racist fears for political gain. I dislike Sarkozy intensely, despair of the fact that he'll probably win, but that doesn't change the fact that he's an extraordinarily savvy politician, far savvier than Royal.

As for poll popularity not translating into a vote win, in France, the early leader often loses. It was the case in 1995 with Balladur, who didn't even make the final run-off.

― Revivalist (Revivalist), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:02 (nineteen years ago)

I agree with Revivalist. My family live in Le Pen country and his influence is definitely spreading throughout the rural South and East which means that all the people who agree with him but don't want to be seen supporting an out and out racist will vote for Sarkozy. He puts a much more acceptable face on views that I personally find repugnant.

― Kv_nol (Kv_nol), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:13 (nineteen years ago)

But there will be a very small number of people who may not vote for Royal because she's a woman. In a close election, that may matter.

True. But on the other hand, there will definitely be a percentage of women who will vote for her simply because of her gender, so ultimately I think the effect will be relatively neutral.

― is anyone anticipating the new Baaderonixx? (baaderonixx), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:19 (nineteen years ago)

Yeah, you may be right. It's not because she's a woman that I think she's going to lose. It's because Sarkozy is a way better political operator who has managed to come through years in office unscathed, and, as Kv_nol says, he'll pick up all the Le Pen votes.

― Revivalist (Revivalist), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:22 (nineteen years ago)

Fair enough, sorry for the silly ad hominem. However I see a Sarkozy win as possible, but not probable. I don't think people who vote for Le Pen will be ashamed of it, they certainly weren't last time, and it's not like anyone sees who anyone else votes for or even talks about it except on rare occasions. So I think it more likely that Le Pen and others will take vote's away from the more 'moderate' right and it seems like everyone not-right will rally around Royal and no one else. Unless there's some drastic shift before the elections in that set-up...I just think whatever "1 or 2 %" of people refuse to vote for women are vastly outnumbered by the kneejerk vote for a woman. It's not even really hypothetical at this point...the numbers even within her own Party were big in her favor, which to me means women who don't usually care went out and voted for a woman.

oops xpost

― richardk (Richard K), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:25 (nineteen years ago)

There's also an element of "incumbency" in Sarkozy's candidacy, which goes against the general mood of wanting to change parties every couple of terms, no? This is just guessing on my part I have no idea.

― richardk (Richard K), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:28 (nineteen years ago)

btw Lex OTM upthread!

― richardk (Richard K), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:28 (nineteen years ago)

Well, all the Le Pen supporters will certainly vote Le Pen in the first round. Then, unless there's another surprise like the last time (when Le Pen made the run-off), the second round will pit Royal against Sarkozy. At that point, the Le Pen voters can either stay at home, or they can vote Sarkozy. In the past, they tended to stay at home, such is Le Pen's hatred for Chirac. This time, they'll vote Sarkozy. And Le Pen gets 15% of the vote so that's a lot of people.

I think Sarkozy's managed to avoid the 'incumbency' issue, by being a kind of 5th column in the government, clearly to the right of de Villepin and Chirac and not afraid to criticise them.

Mind you, I sincerely hope I'm wrong about all this...

― Revivalist (Revivalist), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:37 (nineteen years ago)

not like anyone sees who anyone else votes for or even talks about it except on rare occasions

This is really not my experience with the French. They will be very open about it.

I believe that the middle classes who traditionally would have been more center right will be drawn towards Sarkozy. I think the entire country has shifted towards the right on the whole, not in a whole "Let's kick out the foreigners" sort of way but in a whole "Who are these people and why do they disgrace France?" (I'm sorry, that's not clear at all) manner. He won't get all the Le Pen votes. Those that voted for him before will do so again but those (the middle class and ex-centrists shocked by the riots from which they were saved by Sarkozy [copyright his PR people]) who traditionally voted for the center right will probably vote more conservatively.

Also Royal doesn't seem wildly popular within her own party. A leader who can't rely on the full support of her party is a leader who will be let down at the eleventh hour or changed for a compromise candidate, though that might not be possible anymore!

― Kv_nol (Kv_nol), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:40 (nineteen years ago)

Yeah, I think the point about Royal not being popular in the party is probably important too. Sure, she got the vote among the party members, but the éléphants, the party elite, don't really like her and there will the temptation to stab her in the back or at least not fight so hard for her.

― Revivalist (Revivalist), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:47 (nineteen years ago)

For a long time, I thought the hype element of having a woman candidate with a chance of winning would boost Segolene and allow her to grab votes from centrists and people who usually don't bother to vote. However, I think you guys are right. Sarkozy, unless he clearly fucks up, will vacuum all those indignated middle-class voters.

― is anyone anticipating the new Baaderonixx? (baaderonixx), Friday, 17 November 2006 10:54 (nineteen years ago)

The scenario is certainly possible, but it means something would have to change between now and then..right now the polls have Royal winning easily.

Sarkozy may be a savvy but he just doesn't seem likeable enough to win a presidency. Even Le Pen is more likeable and congenial on TV, hence his popularity probably. I mean Chirac, as hated as he is by some, is just a charismatic sympathique guy and no one can really mount an attack on him because of it. This seems to apply to older French presidents though I don't know much about that beyond Mitterand and De Gaulle both also fitting this type. The director of the recent Chirac docu said something interesting about watching audience reactions; that even the scenes with Sarkozy as a youth intended to provoke laughter failed because as soon as he's on screen everyone shuts up and doesn't laugh, whereas even Chirac saying absurd things got laffs.

― richardk (Richard K), Friday, 17 November 2006 12:50 (nineteen years ago)

Le Pen was on national television lastnight, and everyone is talking about it today. It's funny to see someone speak eloquently about how the plans to build a wall between the US and Mexico are admirable.

― richardk (Richard K), Friday, 17 November 2006 12:56 (nineteen years ago)

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