2007 State of the Union Predictions Quiz

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Dear friends, pundits, bloggers, Jack Bauer-wannabes, American Idol contestants, 2008 Presidential candidates, and all TIME People of the Year (Yes, that's You),

The 5th Annual State of the Union Predictions Quiz is here.

http://www.danahork.com/quiz.html

Either read for fun, or enter the SOTU Chief Political Pundit Contest by submitting the quiz online no later than Tuesday, January 23rd at 6pm EST. The SOTU speech begins at 9pm EST Tuesday evening. I will score the quizzes, and the pundit with the highest score will choose from a list of prizes.

Best of luck, and May the Best Pundit Win!

Dana
January 2007


(hit 'refresh' when visiting the website if you have trouble loading the page)

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 19 January 2007 15:08 (nineteen years ago)

I predict that "success" will be substituted for "victory" repeatedly, but i'm not the first one who's pointed this out.

Oh yeah, and that "freedom" and "liberty" of a certain kind will be continually hammered on.

kingfish prætor (kingfish 2.0), Friday, 19 January 2007 15:27 (nineteen years ago)

I can predict with almost perfect certainty that I will get drunk while I watch it.

M. White (Miguelito), Friday, 19 January 2007 15:31 (nineteen years ago)

do you know that Ford once said "The state of the Union is not good"!?! What a different world.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 19 January 2007 15:43 (nineteen years ago)

Colloid. Maybe Bose-Einstein condensate. Either way, it's gonna give me gas.

Fleischhutliebe! like a warm, furry meatloaf (Fluffy Bear Hearts Rainbows), Friday, 19 January 2007 20:54 (nineteen years ago)

play, or cry.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 22 January 2007 21:17 (nineteen years ago)

Ooo! ooo! What random batshit WTF thing will he talk about this year to get around talking about the occupation? We've had Mars, HIV/AIDS help to Africa, steroids in pro- and high school athletes, and human-animal hybrids.

What this year?

kingfish prætor (kingfish 2.0), Monday, 22 January 2007 21:50 (nineteen years ago)

Seriously, universal health-care by 3153? banning Girls Gone Wild adverts? Sacrificing your children for either public service or Moloch?

kingfish prætor (kingfish 2.0), Monday, 22 January 2007 21:51 (nineteen years ago)

Nothing will ever top the human-animal hybrid thing. Unless Bush has been watching even worse science fiction shows than "Manimal."

Sara R-C (Sara R-C), Monday, 22 January 2007 21:53 (nineteen years ago)

I dunno. I thought high school steroids was fun.

kingfish prætor (kingfish 2.0), Monday, 22 January 2007 21:55 (nineteen years ago)

mars, bitches

dar1a g (daria g), Monday, 22 January 2007 21:56 (nineteen years ago)

mumblings about some Global Warming content in the thing, which if he actually admits, might be shocking enough.

Or else this is just a headfake.

kingfish prætor (kingfish 2.0), Monday, 22 January 2007 22:07 (nineteen years ago)

Paul Krugman writing about the health care bits of the President's radio address, topics which will probably show up tonight.

kingfish moose tracks (kingfish 2.0), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 18:05 (nineteen years ago)

I predict a 6-peat on the pledge to end America's addiction to foreign oil.

Mike Dixn (Mike Dixon), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 18:51 (nineteen years ago)

Will Bush revive his penchant for saying Iraq requires "hard work"? Will that phrase pass his lips tonight?

Aimless (Aimless), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 18:55 (nineteen years ago)

More details.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 19:10 (nineteen years ago)

what should the president say, frank gaffney jr?

...Fortunately, if the President issues such a necessary warning, his will no longer be a voice in the wilderness. Indeed, the public is increasingly being treated to televised information about the true, and growing, threat of Islamofascist terror in the West. It takes the form of fictionalized accounts (such as Fox’s wildly popular drama, “24”) and factual documentaries (like programs aired this weekend on Fox News and CNN about, respectively, the operations of the terrorist organization Hezbollah in America and the virulent hatred towards the West being incubated by Islamists in places like the United Kingdom)....

kingfish moose tracks (kingfish 2.0), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 19:56 (nineteen years ago)

boy, that tax deduc for health insurance is bizarre shit.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 20:04 (nineteen years ago)

http://adweek.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/monopoly_guy.jpg

Fleischhutliebe! like a warm, furry meatloaf (Fluffy Bear Hearts Rainbows), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 20:12 (nineteen years ago)

gas consumption thing is great for what it is (too little too late but still...). Gotta admit no one would've predicted an oil-rich bozo like him taking stuch a stand 7 years ago.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 20:15 (nineteen years ago)

"The president's 10-year plan to cut gasoline use includes tightening fuel economy standards on automakers and producing 35 billion gallons of renewable fuel such as ethanol by 2017, according to sources briefed on the speech."

A very easy but short term fix on the one hand and a pork barrel giveaway on the other. About what anyone should expect.

"One official said the moves would be equivalent to taking 26 million vehicles off U.S. roads."

Because we'd never want to try to remove 26 million physical cars off the roads!

wostyntje (wostyntje), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 22:22 (nineteen years ago)

calling ethanol "renewable" is totally fucking misleading

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 22:23 (nineteen years ago)

(also OTM about it being total pork barrel handout)

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 22:24 (nineteen years ago)

Some waffle

Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 22:35 (nineteen years ago)

The American people expect their elected leaders from both parties to work together on the important issues facing the Nation. Tonight the President will lay out an ambitious agenda, driven by bold and innovative concepts. He will discuss the importance of forging common ground with the new Congress and explain that to keep America safe, we must prevail in the war on terror.

“Some in this Chamber are new to the House and Senate – and I congratulate the Democratic majority. Congress has changed, but our responsibilities have not…We are not the first to come here with government divided and uncertainty in the air. Like many before us, we can work through our differences, and achieve big things for the American people.”

“Our citizens don’t much care which side of the aisle we sit on – as long as we are willing to cross that aisle when there is work to be done. Our job is to make life better for our fellow Americans, and help them to build a future of hope and opportunity – and this is the business before us tonight.”

On our growing economy:

“A future of hope and opportunity begins with a growing economy – and that is what we have…Unemployment is low, inflation is low, and wages are rising. This economy is on the move – and our job is to keep it that way, not with more government but with more enterprise.”

On the importance of strengthening and re-authorizing No Child Left Behind this year:

“Five years ago, we rose above partisan differences to pass the No Child Left Behind Act…And because we acted, students are performing better in reading and math, and minority students are closing the achievement gap.”

“Now the task is to build on this success, without watering down standards ... without taking control from local communities ... and without backsliding and calling it reform…And we can make sure our children are prepared for the jobs of the future, and our country is more competitive, by strengthening math and science skills.”

On the President’s new health care initiatives:

“[I]n all we do, we must remember that the best healthcare decisions are made not by government and insurance companies, but by patients and their doctors.”

On comprehensive immigration reform:

“Extending hope and opportunity in our country requires an immigration system worthy of America – with laws that are fair and borders that are secure. When laws and borders are routinely violated, this harms the interests of our country… Yet…we cannot fully secure the border unless we take pressure off the border – and that requires a temporary worker program.”

On strengthening America’s energy security:

“Extending hope and opportunity depends on a stable supply of energy that keeps America’s economy running and America’s environment clean. For too long our Nation has been dependent on foreign oil. And this dependence leaves us more vulnerable to hostile regimes, and to terrorists – who could cause huge disruptions of oil shipments ... raise the price of oil ... and do great harm to our economy. It is in our vital interest to diversify America’s energy supply – and the way forward is through technology.”

On the war on terror:

“For all of us in this room, there is no higher responsibility than to protect the people of this country from danger…[T]o win the war on terror we must take the fight to the enemy. From the start, America and our allies have protected our people by staying on the offense. The enemy knows that the days of comfortable sanctuary, easy movement, steady financing, and free flowing communications are long over. For the terrorists, life since Nine-Eleven has never been the same.”

“[O]ur military commanders and I have carefully weighed the options. We discussed every possible approach. In the end, I chose this course of action because it provides the best chance of success. Many in this chamber understand that America must not fail in Iraq – because you understand that the consequences of failure would be grievous and far reaching.”

“The war on terror we fight today is a generational struggle that will continue long after you and I have turned our duties over to others. That is why it is important to work together so our Nation can see this great effort through.”

“Both parties and both branches should work in close consultation. And this is why I propose to establish a special advisory council on the war on terror, made up of leaders in Congress from both political parties. We will share ideas for how to position America to meet every challenge that confronts us. And we will show our enemies abroad that we are united in the goal of victory.”

On American foreign policy:

“American foreign policy is more than a matter of war and diplomacy. Our work in the world is also based on a timeless truth: To whom much is given, much is required. We hear the call to take on the challenges of hunger, poverty, and disease – and that is precisely what America is doing. We must continue to fight HIV/AIDS, especially on the continent of Africa.”

Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 23 January 2007 22:35 (nineteen years ago)

Damn, I know it's too late, but I did the quiz anyway (before I read Ned's post, to boot!)

I will also probably get drunk while I watch.

Zachary S (Zach S), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 00:46 (nineteen years ago)

Zachary, that's how I felt about Nixon, too.

Aimless (Aimless), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 01:10 (nineteen years ago)

He's flying through this like he's late for something.

do i have to draw you a diaphragm (Rock Hardy), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 02:32 (nineteen years ago)

It's past his bedtime.

Marmot (marmotwolof), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 02:33 (nineteen years ago)

Cheney's making a bunch of weird faces, and I'm pretty sure I've seen him pop at least two o' them pacemaker pills.

indian rope trick (bean), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 02:35 (nineteen years ago)

If he keels over and dies HELLO YOUTUBE

Marmot (marmotwolof), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 02:39 (nineteen years ago)

Condi looks like she's trying to see one of those 3-D pictures.

Marmot (marmotwolof), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 02:42 (nineteen years ago)

Several people appear to be nodding off.

Marmot (marmotwolof), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 02:43 (nineteen years ago)

i'm watching this in spanish right now. way more enjoyable, and probably just as enlightening.

feed latebloomer (latebloomer), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 02:48 (nineteen years ago)

congress in line for autographs afterwards

Dominique (dleone), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 03:13 (nineteen years ago)

ethanol is a scam, and basically a sop for Big Ag. Plus, you think those huge commercial farms are going to run their combines on E95 (or whatever)?? lolz.


i fucking hate this guy more than ever.

xp DUDE, I KNOW! MINDBLOWING.

mothers against celibacy (skowly), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 03:15 (nineteen years ago)

how can a person take their gov't seriously when the fucking lawmakers are lining up for autographs from a guy who is essentially one of their coworkers?

mothers against celibacy (skowly), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 03:17 (nineteen years ago)

also, that shit with the dkembe and the rich lady and the subway guy and the veteran was nice and all, but, UH, this isn't a halftime show, boss.

mothers against celibacy (skowly), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 03:18 (nineteen years ago)

I bet he's signed Condi's boobs.

do i have to draw you a diaphragm (Rock Hardy), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 03:19 (nineteen years ago)

A perfect chance image from the Washington Post main page:

http://a185.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/5/l_2def1df8826385f90fd9e77ffc8f26d8.gif

Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 03:21 (nineteen years ago)

I will defend one aspect of Bush's healthcare proposal though - anyone who pays for his/her own insurance should be able to deduct what they spend. Everyone else (who is insured) already has their insurance costs automatically deducted, so the fact that people who don't have employer insurance can't is just an inexplicable and needless unfairness in the system. Usually these people (this included myself until recently) are already spending way more than everyone else because they're paying full-price for individual/family plans instead of getting them at a group rate and/or with some employer contribution. These are not necessarily wealthy people - in fact I'd guess it's more likely to be middle-income people who make just enough to afford health insurance.

A-ron Hubbard (Hurting), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 03:25 (nineteen years ago)

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/01/24/us/24bush.5119.jpg

"You don't expect me to shake that, do you?"

g00blar (gooblar), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 11:07 (nineteen years ago)

"wood chips"

kingfish moose tracks (kingfish 2.0), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 15:28 (nineteen years ago)

did he mention No Child Left Behind?

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 15:30 (nineteen years ago)

ya morbs

he also perpetuated the mutumbo myth

jhoshea (scoopsnoodle), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 15:45 (nineteen years ago)

various reactions, including George Lakoff, Andy Stern(head of SEIU), and Christine Todd Whitman.

kingfish moose tracks (kingfish 2.0), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 17:10 (nineteen years ago)

huzzah I missed this entirely and just watched the pundits bicker about it instead

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 17:14 (nineteen years ago)

I was surprised by how much the FOX Legion of Doom liked Webb's rebuttal, but then again he was their golden boy once .

Alfred, Lord Sotosyn (Alfred Soto), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 17:55 (nineteen years ago)

webb's rebuttal was very good

dar1a g (daria g), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 17:57 (nineteen years ago)

I listened to Webb's speech on the radio, where it played very well. Simple. Direct. Easy to understand and follow. Sincere-sounding. He did not come off as a weasel, which is so rare among politicos these days as to be refreshing - even astonishing. Apparently he wrote it himself rather than handing the job off to some speechwriter-apparatchik type.

Well done, sir! Well done!

Aimless (Aimless), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:05 (nineteen years ago)

Dude's a novelist, after all.


(even had a story credit for a Tommy Lee Jones/Samuel L. Jackson flick)

kingfish moose tracks (kingfish 2.0), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:22 (nineteen years ago)

Even amid NRO grousing Goldberg posted this:

From a reader:

Jonah -

I understand that to you and many other Cornerites, Webb bombed last
night and sounded bitter. But let me tell you something: he was a huge
hit in my extended lower-middle-class Los Angeles-based family. We
ignore the Jacksonians at our peril. They have turned against the war
something fierce.

A lot of people think the American people turned against the Vietnam War
due to all the student movement and the protests. Nope, not even close.
They—ordinary, middle-class Americans—turned against it when it was
clear that overwhelming force would not be used purely for political
reasons. Not seeing any will to win the only way a war can be won, they
wanted out. Same deal here, same result.

Webb's threat is very real. Forget the "surge". It may happen, but it's
happening in a political vacuum. If the President doesn't get us out of
Iraq by year's end, the electorate will go searching for whoever will.

Which strikes me as a solid enough read.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:28 (nineteen years ago)

is Webb's rebuttal in print on-line anywhere...? I didn't catch it

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:33 (nineteen years ago)

Go nuts.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:35 (nineteen years ago)

Kickass.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:40 (nineteen years ago)

(but did he really call FDR a Republican?! LOLZ)

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:40 (nineteen years ago)

I don't torture myself w/ NRO, but JACKSONIANS? Is that Scoop or Andrew?

What's behind W not mentioning Ford? Too non-interventionist?

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:41 (nineteen years ago)

I must presume Scoop.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:42 (nineteen years ago)

Looking at the transcript makes me appreciate how well Webb understands pace and delivery. In print it comes over as much flatter and less engaging. It may also be that on television, with facial expressions added, it would have played yet differently. On radio it was very good.

Aimless (Aimless), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:43 (nineteen years ago)

xpost

It's Andrew Jackson. Webb mentioned him in his speech last night.

Mr. Que (Mr.Que), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 18:43 (nineteen years ago)

(but did he really call FDR a Republican?! LOLZ)

Teddy Roosevelt.

Tim Ellison = NUMBER ONE ADVOCATE OF YOU-KNOW-WHAT ON NU-ILX!!! (Tim Ellison), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 19:44 (nineteen years ago)

ah. DUH

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 19:47 (nineteen years ago)

i posted this on the other thread, and it fits here too, this nice collection of actual fact-checking

kingfish moose tracks (kingfish 2.0), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 21:24 (nineteen years ago)

ROFLZ

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/24/cheney/index.html

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Wednesday, 24 January 2007 22:26 (nineteen years ago)

Hey, I tied for 24th place, out of 1100 or something!

Just sayin'.

Zachary S (Zach S), Thursday, 25 January 2007 04:42 (nineteen years ago)

why can't webb be the newcomer-everyone-creams-about-being-President instead of obama?!? guy has a better resume, actual government EXPERIENCE, he isn't afraid to fight the GOP -- and he's written books too (if that's what turns some folks on).

Eisbär (llamasfur), Thursday, 25 January 2007 05:07 (nineteen years ago)

Uh, could you elaborate? (On your first two points, specifically.)

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 25 January 2007 07:31 (nineteen years ago)

Uh, could you elaborate? (On your first two points, specifically.)

check out his wikipedia entry.

Eisbär (llamasfur), Thursday, 25 January 2007 09:37 (nineteen years ago)

Not everybody was impressed with Jim Webb for some reason.

Sen. Webb's response, by contrast, sounded like that of a divorced woman complaining about her ex-husband's penchant for leaving up the toilet seat. Webb spent a full 400 words, or well over 25 percent of his speech, whining about the genesis of the war in Iraq.

[...]

What, then, makes Webb a "muscular liberal"? His absolute loathing for President Bush. Democrats believe that it takes more courage to obstruct President Bush and Republicans than to fight Islamism. Webb offered nothing but vitriol, and Democrats lapped it up...

and so on and so one for several hundred words.

http://media2.salemwebnetwork.com/Townhall//ColPics/columnistsShapiro.gif

kingfish moose tracks (kingfish 2.0), Thursday, 25 January 2007 17:52 (nineteen years ago)

A "liberal," hoho... Webb merely stated the obvious, which some Chicago newspaper shitwad on the NewsHour also found "harsh" and "not centerist." This nation truly deserves our pols.

Note that Webb described the Iraq war as "mismanaged." Not criminal, not corrupt, not imperial, but "mismanaged." What if the invasion and occupation had been successful? Of course, that would necessitate bloodletting on a massive scale, and even then "success" would not be guaranteed. But let's suppose that Bush gambled correctly, wiped out all forms of resistance and put a lethal stranglehold on the Iraqis while Halliburton peacefully set up shop and US control over Iraq's oil reserves was secure. Think Webb would object to that? Judging from his speech, I seriously doubt that he would, especially if Bush's poll numbers were in the 70s or higher. Webb is simply articulating what many in the US elite already know and feel -- the Iraq war was a tactical, imperial error which is undermining US power in the region. Or to use Webb's terminology, it has been "mismanaged," and so it must be corrected, if that's even possible at this stage.

... When the cluster bombs begin falling on Iran, don't expect Webb, Pelosi, Hillary, Obama, or any senior Dem, to oppose it -- that is, unless the murder of Iranians is somehow bungled or "mismanaged."

http://redstateson.blogspot.com/2007/01/sticky-webb.html

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 25 January 2007 18:00 (nineteen years ago)

and he's written books too (if that's what turns some folks on)

Is the turn-on part of this meant to be a joke?

nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 25 January 2007 18:04 (nineteen years ago)

except that Obama opposed the initial invasion months before it happened, but why let actual history get in the way of anything.

kingfish moose tracks (kingfish 2.0), Thursday, 25 January 2007 18:17 (nineteen years ago)

Obama opposed an invasion; whether he would('ve) opposed air strikes on Ira(q/n), I doubt very much.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 25 January 2007 18:33 (nineteen years ago)

I was going to remark that Dems love airstrikes, until I remembered Reagan's strike force killing Gaddafi's daughter.

Alfred, Lord Sotosyn (Alfred Soto), Thursday, 25 January 2007 19:09 (nineteen years ago)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/1/24/142325/846

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 25 January 2007 19:14 (nineteen years ago)

that's pretty disgraceful from Hagel. I expect nothing less from Biden, who needs to fall into a vat of goo at a DuPont plant.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 25 January 2007 19:21 (nineteen years ago)

the escalation is already happening - bush can send the troops if he wants to send the troops. dodd's bill got voted down because it tried to claim it could do something it hasn't got the power to do.

dar1a g (daria g), Thursday, 25 January 2007 19:36 (nineteen years ago)

yeah I'm not sure legally how that bill would be enforcable. Congress doesn't have power over military deployments, just the budgets.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 25 January 2007 19:40 (nineteen years ago)

nothing relevant in the War Powers Act?

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 25 January 2007 19:41 (nineteen years ago)

oh its definitely relevant, but the application of the War Powers Act seems pretty hotly contested legally. I take it for granted that anything Congress does Dubya would just consider non-binding anyway. End result = troops go no matter what.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 25 January 2007 19:47 (nineteen years ago)

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rl32267.htm#_1_34

ugh - at this point, reading the actual resolution to use force against Iraq is truly sickening and depressing. all of its assumptions, refs to "continuing threat of Iraq" = *vomit*

Anyway upshot is Dubya considers the War Powers Act unconstitutional and expressly said so when signing the resolution. Quel surprise.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 25 January 2007 19:54 (nineteen years ago)

Paul Krugman on the ethanol proposals currently floating around, and the major problem w/ them b/c they rely on getting the stuff from corn(which is costly & inefficient to produce) as opposed to soy beans(FAR cheaper) or sugar cane(like what Brazil does).

kingfish moose tracks (kingfish 2.0), Tuesday, 30 January 2007 23:07 (nineteen years ago)

"There had been hints and hopes that the speech would be a Nixon-goes-to-China moment, with President Bush turning conservationist. But it ended up being more of a Nixon-bombs-Cambodia moment."

ROFLZ

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, 30 January 2007 23:16 (nineteen years ago)


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