Realpolitik 2007 -- Kosovo/Serbia/Russia/Georgia edition

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So here's one for you.

Earlier this week, Serbian nationalists took the largest portion of the election, though far from an outright victory. Coalition talks are continuing.

Meantime, Kosovo -- which the Serbian nationalists still very much want as their own -- is on the verge of getting formal support for independence from the US and Europe.

To complicate matters:

Some diplomats caution that achievement of consensus by the Western powers might not be the end of the tale: Serbia's leaders have persistently and heatedly campaigned against any forced separation of one of their country's provinces. Many Serbs now look toward Moscow to protect their interests with a veto when the matter is presented to the U.N. Security Council for a vote, likely this spring.

Moscow has privately hinted, however, that it is prepared to support the plan in exchange for U.S. and European acquiescence to the formal secession of two Russian-backed regions of Georgia. Washington and its allies oppose that Russian bid, and officials said this week they are uncertain how quickly this diplomatic dance will play out.

A friend of mine is going over to live in Belgrade for a couple of months -- she'll have a few things to say, I'm sure.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Friday, 26 January 2007 15:21 (eighteen years ago)

What is this, spring of 1914 all over again?

M. White (Miguelito), Friday, 26 January 2007 16:30 (eighteen years ago)

yeah, it's wierd and frightening how victorian international relations have become again

geoff (gcannon), Friday, 26 January 2007 16:33 (eighteen years ago)

Some damned foolish thing in the Balkans.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Friday, 26 January 2007 16:35 (eighteen years ago)

Same, I assume?

Regardless, there's no way in hell that Kosovo becomes anything other than independent. T'will never be a part of Serbia again.

g00blar (gooblar), Friday, 26 January 2007 16:37 (eighteen years ago)

It's a little unfortunate that the Serbian national myth is so attached to the place.

M. White (Miguelito), Friday, 26 January 2007 16:54 (eighteen years ago)

It's a little unfortunate, the Serbian national myth

fixed.

g00blar (gooblar), Friday, 26 January 2007 16:55 (eighteen years ago)

Ha ha! Oh, I don't know, they killed Nazis pretty effectively.

M. White (Miguelito), Friday, 26 January 2007 17:03 (eighteen years ago)

Compare these developments with the horrifying state of Putinized Russia (I wish I could link to Michael Specter's chilling New Yorker article) and you certainly have cause to fear.

Alfred, Lord Sotosyn (Alfred Soto), Friday, 26 January 2007 17:44 (eighteen years ago)

Something to keep an eye on (because I doubt our government is, much).

Ned Raggett (Ned), Friday, 26 January 2007 18:04 (eighteen years ago)

all that tom barnett "new core" stuff is really starting to sound like bullshit.

geoff (gcannon), Friday, 26 January 2007 18:13 (eighteen years ago)

i am really hoping, soon, that US and European political culture can take a real outward-looking turn and start pushing on rights and rule of law type stuff, consistently and constantly. I hope I'm not too naive to want the neocon paranoia about the ENGLIGHTENMENT UNDER ASSAULT OMG (justified well enough by stories like this) actually animated something other than, uh, what we're getting... and that leftist 'critique' produced something more than just giggling whenever hugo chavez votes himself into monarchy.

geoff (gcannon), Friday, 26 January 2007 18:15 (eighteen years ago)

They abdicated their moral authority to do that when they spazzed out after 9/11 and derided all those liberal concerns as being weak-hearted. No, fuckers, they're integral to our arsenal of arms in the 'war on terror'.

M. White (Miguelito), Friday, 26 January 2007 18:19 (eighteen years ago)

M. White OTM

The Specter piece is on the internet somewhere - I downloaded a PDF yesterday and circulated it to all my friends.

i'll mitya halfway (mitya), Saturday, 27 January 2007 17:33 (eighteen years ago)

seven months pass...

Serbia investigating whether US had secret deal with war crimes fugitive Karadzic:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/19/europe/EU-GEN-Serbia-US-Karadzic.php

StanM, Friday, 21 September 2007 20:41 (eighteen years ago)

two months pass...

Some kind of crunch is about to happen here. What happens next?

a. War. Serbia goes for the throat. Kosovo is too weak to defend itself. NATO doesn't step in, at least immediately, because there's no public support for action. Serbia retakes the province, and the focus is on keeping things humane.
b. Militiancy. Unofficial attacks by entities not-necessarily connected to the Serbian state. The new state is neither overwhelmed nor capable of striking back, and its authority leaches back to its own militias. NATO plays policeman as things get steadily worse.
c. Damp squib. Serbia doesn't recognise the new state, but otherwise little changes. The Serb areas become new Republika Srpskas, their status becoming something else for the back burner.
d. Other. But what?

Ismael Klata, Monday, 10 December 2007 14:43 (eighteen years ago)

a. War. Serbia goes for the throat. Kosovo is too weak to defend itself.

Serbia is too weak to attack it.

Tom D., Monday, 10 December 2007 14:45 (eighteen years ago)

I forgot:
e. Kosovo declares independence and makes a good fist of it. The Serb areas know a good thing when they see it and want to join in. The enlightened new state lets them. Serbia sees that there is little support for any intervention by it and bows out, other than maintaining a residual territorial claim that fades in time.

Ismael Klata, Monday, 10 December 2007 14:58 (eighteen years ago)

Oh, you fuckers:

European leaders are prepared to offer Serbia "accelerated" membership of the EU as a carrot for accepting the independence of Kosovo, it was reported today.

G00blar, Friday, 14 December 2007 12:05 (eighteen years ago)

two months pass...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7244333.stm

Really hope this blows over. I was in the Balkans last summer (fascinating, I'd recommend anyone to go*), and it would be heartbreaking to see a return to conflict. Hopefully more preventative measures are being taken this time.

*Though maybe not right now.

chap, Thursday, 14 February 2008 16:01 (seventeen years ago)

The friend I mentioned in the first post is still in Belgrade and she's not thrilled about any of this -- she's very glad the Serbian election went the way it did but this is something else.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 14 February 2008 16:04 (seventeen years ago)

Anyone think it's a good idea, Kosovo declaring independence?

Ismael Klata, Thursday, 14 February 2008 20:18 (seventeen years ago)

five months pass...

Well, Russia's invasion of Georgia has finally limped to the top of the BBC news, now that nothing has finished happening in Beijing

Ismael Klata, Friday, 8 August 2008 18:36 (seventeen years ago)

fourteen years pass...

damn, tough gig

BREAKING

The newly elected Vice-President of Serbian Parliament, Bozidar Delic, has died a few days into office.

Delic was a notorious war criminal, under whose command Serbia's genocidal forces massacred 2174 Kosovo Albanians, 459 of which were later found in mass graves. pic.twitter.com/5uxqiZqGpa

— Admirim (@admirim) August 23, 2022

nashwan, Tuesday, 23 August 2022 13:08 (three years ago)


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