KENTUCKY DERBY 2007

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tell me who is gonna win this thing

http://www.johnsnellphoto.com/Images/churchillh.jpg

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:47 (eighteen years ago)

Beetlebaum?

― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:48 (eighteen years ago)

Magic 8-Ball says...better not tell you now.

― Laurel, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:49 (eighteen years ago)

leaders by graded earnings
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007/stats/earnings.html

(is that a blur joke? xpost)

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:50 (eighteen years ago)

22 Imawildandcrazyguy $104,000 William Kaplan

― Mr. Que, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:51 (eighteen years ago)

current top 25 with odds and comments
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007/watch/derby_watch_042007.pdf

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:53 (eighteen years ago)

27 HORSES?!?! They're gonna need a bigger track.

― brownie, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:53 (eighteen years ago)

delicious mint julep
http://www.johnnyjet.com/images/PicsToUseKYMay2005LADYSELLINGMINTJ.JPG

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:54 (eighteen years ago)

xpost - nah only the top 20 get in if all 27 try to enter

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:54 (eighteen years ago)

lol at early times.

ladies tell us about the hat you intend to wear

― jergïns, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:55 (eighteen years ago)

ok, then. The Derby has my blessing.

xpost

― brownie, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:55 (eighteen years ago)

wow, it's been almost a year already? that was a great day last year, lots of gambling in the pool room of a neighborhood rock venue, went out with a girl to a truly original show at sub-t featuring tunnel of love, then went to an afterparty. starting with the bourbon for breakfast made for a pretty swirly day.

― chicago kevin, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:55 (eighteen years ago)

"Early Times" does describe when you're supposed to drink it, right?

― call all destroyer, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 19:56 (eighteen years ago)

(is that a blur joke? xpost)

No, Spike Jones!

― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 20:01 (eighteen years ago)

fyi, it's now possible to buy this pillow:

http://www.weblogsinc.com/common/images/3352683157281237.JPG?0.9162876902445937

― brownie, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 20:03 (eighteen years ago)

where is hstencil's derby party?

― ian, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 20:05 (eighteen years ago)

No, Spike Jones!

ha, went over my head

that song isnt even on parklife but it was my only guess

http://images-eu.amazon.com/images/P/B000002TQB.02.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 20:07 (eighteen years ago)

that pillow's kinda scary

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 20:08 (eighteen years ago)

Hooray celebrities are coming to town again.

― nickalicious, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 20:18 (eighteen years ago)

Celebrities AND Saudi royalty.

― nickalicious, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 20:18 (eighteen years ago)

a lot of the prep races are on youtube

here's Street Sense (last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner) and Any Given Saturday battling in the Tampa Bay Derby

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3866G0JYO9Q

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 20:21 (eighteen years ago)

possible favorite Curlin trouncing a weak field in the Arkansas Derby

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9jMfP8SAE0

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 20:30 (eighteen years ago)

here's Street Sense in his race after Tampa, getting caught at the wire by Dominican in the Blue Grass
bizarrely run race, super slow early followed by a blanket finish

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR66KjSXurk

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:39 (eighteen years ago)

Hard Spun winning the Lane's End
trainer decided to skip the Blue Grass and go straight to the Derby (ditto for Any Given Saturday)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7ntzaBr5yg

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:41 (eighteen years ago)

(I realize I am pretty much talking to myself here but I want to collect these links in 1 place)

Circular Quay winning the La. Derby

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuxjodeGr_k

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:45 (eighteen years ago)

Last year I watched with Morbs and his gal pals at Cwealth, and chainsmoked and ate flautas and didn't win anything. Shit it's been a year already. Already?!

― Laurel, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:46 (eighteen years ago)

this thread makes me want to never invite ilxors to another derby party ever.

― hstencil, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:48 (eighteen years ago)

aaaaaand Nobiz Like Shobiz wins the Wood Memorial for Barclay Tagg (same guy who trained Funny Cide)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBNKRH_UFWQ

[i[~~(ditto for Any Given Saturday)~~[/i]

oops I fucked that up. AGS was third in the Wood, it was Circular Quay who skipped.

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:52 (eighteen years ago)

wait is this on? or what? & on what channel? i usuually try to catch this one & that one after it if the same horse won

― deeznuts, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:53 (eighteen years ago)

it's always the first Saturday in May

(i.e. it's a week from this Saturday)

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:54 (eighteen years ago)

ok sry. whens the bellmont.

im hoping the bellmont is the first one so i dont embarrass myself further but if not you get what i mean

― deeznuts, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:55 (eighteen years ago)

it's called the belmont, and it's the last one, n00b.

― hstencil, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:56 (eighteen years ago)

do you know about the google?

xpost

― Mr. Que, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:57 (eighteen years ago)

i dont know what to google except for 'horse race'

― deeznuts, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:58 (eighteen years ago)

PREAKNESS

― deeznuts, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:58 (eighteen years ago)

it just came to me, eat shit motherfuckers

― deeznuts, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 21:59 (eighteen years ago)

preakness is the second one, dumbshit.

― hstencil, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 22:00 (eighteen years ago)

oh fuck it im outta here

― deeznuts, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 22:00 (eighteen years ago)

good. don't come back to a thread about horse racin' until you know something about it, or at least can be funny or entertaining.

― hstencil, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 22:03 (eighteen years ago)

and bring some juleps while you're at it.

― hstencil, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 22:06 (eighteen years ago)

where is that ascii art of the guy slapping his forehead in dismay

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 22:10 (eighteen years ago)

I'm gonna go drink some bourbon and meditate on my potential picks

― dmr, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 22:11 (eighteen years ago)

WHEN IS PARTY? SEND ME JORELP!

― JW, Tuesday, 24 April 2007 22:25 (eighteen years ago)

i'm not having a party this year, chump.

― hstencil, Wednesday, 25 April 2007 01:26 (eighteen years ago)

everybody come to Commonwealth! where you don't have to know anything and there's OTB across the street.

― Dr Morbius, Wednesday, 25 April 2007 13:36 (eighteen years ago)

Last year I watched with Morbs and his gal pals at Cwealth, and chainsmoked and ate flautas and didn't win anything. Shit it's been a year already. Already?!

i think that may have been the day i came home and sent you a series of drunk myspace messages. i'm trying to remember what other occasion would have had me that wasted that early and not still out at a bar.

― chicago kevin, Wednesday, 25 April 2007 13:39 (eighteen years ago)

where you don't have to know anything and there's OTB across the street.

that doesn't sound like a very good money management strategy

― dmr, Thursday, 26 April 2007 05:34 (eighteen years ago)

anyway I guess I like Street Sense

no one has won the BC Juvenile (top race for 2-year-olds) and come back the next year to win the derby but he was a pretty dominant BC winner and hasn't really taken a wrong step. won tough stretch duel in tampa and just barely lost the freaky paced Blue Grass (where his trainer prolly wanted to save something for the big day and not go all out). will probably end up 2nd choice in the betting behind Curlin but in today's 20-horse fields that could mean 7-1.

don't like Curlin much, too lightly raced imo and won't be ready for prime time. some people probably think he's the second coming of smarty jones but smarty had a lot more races in him.

― dmr, Thursday, 26 April 2007 05:45 (eighteen years ago)

I cleared about $30 last year with that strategery!

― Dr Morbius, Thursday, 26 April 2007 13:09 (eighteen years ago)

hunch bets don't count, sry

but hey before barbaro th last derby winner I picked was silver charm so wtf do I know

― dmr, Thursday, 26 April 2007 16:50 (eighteen years ago)

final derby watch top 25 update
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007/watch/derby_watch_042707.pdf

― dmr, Thursday, 26 April 2007 16:51 (eighteen years ago)

My "hunches" are (somewhat) informed ones.

― Dr Morbius, Friday, 4 May 2007 16:34 (eighteen years ago)

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/1986/user7561159247906cv0.jpg

― alkie cat, Friday, 4 May 2007 16:38 (eighteen years ago)

My "hunches" are (somewhat) informed ones.

nah that's cool. I was just messin with ya for the "you don't have to know anything" comment.

― dmr, Friday, 4 May 2007 17:03 (eighteen years ago)

A friend won separate win-place-show bets on the Derby 2 yrs ago... and neglected to play an exacta or trifecta.

― Dr Morbius, Friday, 4 May 2007 17:06 (eighteen years ago)

haha oops.

so it's looking like Street Sense is def. gonna be the favorite so I need to go another direction. I'll still use him but probably just in exactas with longer shots ... possibly Zanjero, third in the Blue Grass, he's Steve Asmussen's second stringer (Curlin is the other one). probably will be in the ballpark of 30-1.

― dmr, Friday, 4 May 2007 17:07 (eighteen years ago)

also the weather might be a factor. it's been raining in Louisville since thursday. track is sloppy today for the Oaks. probably will rain tomorrow.

otoh most of the main contenders have ok mud numbers so it may not matter. but in general I think slop favors front-runners, they don't get splattered by heavy dirt throughout the entire running ...

― dmr, Friday, 4 May 2007 17:08 (eighteen years ago)

haha Assmussen

I was looking at Zanjero too, in the money 7 of 8 starts

― Dr Morbius, Friday, 4 May 2007 17:09 (eighteen years ago)

here's the field and morning line odds

1 Sedgefield Darrin Miller Julien Leparoux 50-1
2 Curlin Steve Asmussen Robby Albarado 7-2
3 Zanjero Steve Asmussen Shaun Bridgmohan 30-1
4 Storm in May William Kaplan Juan Leyva 30-1
5 I' m a wild and crazy guy William Kaplan Mark Guidry 50-1
6 Cowtown Cat Todd Pletcher Fernando Jara 20-1
7 Street Sense Carl Nafzger Calvin Borel 4-1
8 Hard Spun J. Larry Jones Mario Pino 15-1
9 Liquidity Doug O'Neill David Flores 30-1
10 Teuflesberg Jamie Sanders Stewart Elliott 30-1
11 Bwana Bull Jerry Hollendorfer Javier Castellano 50-1
12 Nobiz Like Showbiz Barclay Tagg Cornelio Velasquez 8-1
13 Sam P. Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez 20-1
14 Scat Daddy Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 10-1
15 Tiago John Shirreffs Mike Smith 15-1
16 Circular Quay Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 8-1
17 Stormello William Currin Kent Desormeaux 30-1
18 Any Given Saturday Todd Pletcher Garrett Gomez 12-1
19 Dominican Darrin Miller Rafael Bejarano 20-1
20 Great Hunter Doug O'Neill Corey Nakatani 15-1

― dmr, Friday, 4 May 2007 17:16 (eighteen years ago)

(that's horse-trainer-jockey-odds)

and again, I think when the betting starts those numbers on Curlin and Street Sense will reverse. ppl are too nervous about Curlin only having 3 lifetime starts (and they're right to be nervous imo)

― dmr, Friday, 4 May 2007 17:18 (eighteen years ago)

dmr where you gonna watch?

― Dr Morbius, Friday, 4 May 2007 20:00 (eighteen years ago)

I'll be at work :((((

might try to find you guys later tho

― dmr, Saturday, 5 May 2007 01:44 (eighteen years ago)

btw I've totally changed my thinking on this race, the dog ridden by the cat is going in my trifecta box

― dmr, Saturday, 5 May 2007 01:47 (eighteen years ago)

so here's my top 4

CIRCULAR QUAY
STREET SENSE
ZANJERO
HARD SPUN

I'll play CQ to win and hook him up with the others in exactas. May use Any Given Saturday lightly but I'm not nuts about him. Good luck!

― dmr, Saturday, 5 May 2007 15:10 (eighteen years ago)

playing Zanjero & Sedgefield to show

― Dr Morbius, Saturday, 5 May 2007 16:50 (eighteen years ago)

No Biz to win.

― aimurchie, Saturday, 5 May 2007 19:38 (eighteen years ago)

hope the rain holds off today

track looks pretty dry right now

― dmr, Saturday, 5 May 2007 19:55 (eighteen years ago)

Great Hunter looks like a steeplechaser! That horse is huge, and would probably do well on a longer course.

I'm still with No Biz to win -
Sedgefield to show, out of some strange affection for a band.

― aimurchie, Saturday, 5 May 2007 20:05 (eighteen years ago)

If Great Hunter wasn't stranded out in post 20 or had a better jockey I think he'd be a good play at 24-1 or whatever he is now. but I think that'll be too much for him to overcome.

― dmr, Saturday, 5 May 2007 20:27 (eighteen years ago)

well I might as well tell whut happened

Street Sense ran a sick race, Borel was ultra confident and made an awesome move up the rail then tipped out coming into the turn and won pretty easy

Hard Spun ran his fuckin balls off, setting an early fraction of under 23 seconds and then being around at the end of a 1 1/4 mile race is pretty much unheard of. in comparison Street Sense was going much slower early and had a lot left in the tank, he was in 19th place going into the first turn.

I hit the exacta for 3 bucks but it was one of my smaller bets, I needed Circular Quay up in there to make some real money. but I did better than break even which is better than usual for me for the Derby so hey.

― dmr, Sunday, 6 May 2007 05:55 (eighteen years ago)

p.s. I hated Sedgefield before the race but he almost got a piece! 5th place, not bad.

― dmr, Sunday, 6 May 2007 05:56 (eighteen years ago)

damn great hunter was the one i randomly drew for my $2 pool :( ah well, only lost $2! also, those juleps were good!!!

― tehresa, Sunday, 6 May 2007 05:57 (eighteen years ago)

juleps are always good!!

― dmr, Sunday, 6 May 2007 06:01 (eighteen years ago)

http://images.wikia.com/memoryalpha/en/images/thumb/6/6c/MintJulep.JPG/180px-MintJulep.JPG

― dmr, Sunday, 6 May 2007 06:02 (eighteen years ago)

= McCoy wit a mint julep

― dmr, Sunday, 6 May 2007 06:02 (eighteen years ago)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sol/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/04/horse_racing_the_best_and_worst_in_horse_racing_2004/img/10.jpg

― zappi, Sunday, 6 May 2007 06:10 (eighteen years ago)

http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2007/more/05/05/bc.kentucky.derby.ap/t1_0505_street.sense_ap.jpg

― dmr, Sunday, 6 May 2007 06:13 (eighteen years ago)

net loss of $26 for me, won one lousy place bet on Street Sense. Had friggin' Sedgefield to show, he was 3rd comin into stretch. ie fuck gambling. I'm glad Tza, Laurel and V1c were around to keep me from despair (and awake).

― Dr Morbius, Monday, 7 May 2007 13:41 (eighteen years ago)

Watched this on a tiny tv on a covered porch during a storm, good times. I didn't bet a damned thing but was interested in Curlin, which one of my clients @ work foled & raised. Also me & my sister were all about A Storm In May because it was storming in May and also blind in one eye! That's crazy.

Good times. I made juleps for me & moms.

― nickalicious, Monday, 7 May 2007 13:47 (eighteen years ago)

i didn't even get to watch it this year. fuckin' sucks.

― hstencil, Monday, 7 May 2007 18:28 (eighteen years ago)

ouch

that happened to me last year, I was at a wedding

check the replay from about 1:30 on and you can see Street Sense come all the way up the rail

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SA1o4N1UI10

I usually hate that overhead shot that NBC does (can't tell who's who) but this time it worked out perfect

― dmr, Monday, 7 May 2007 18:36 (eighteen years ago)

Oh man was Borel stoked to win this thing, too. What a champ.

― nickalicious, Monday, 7 May 2007 18:40 (eighteen years ago)

yeah he is rad

he gets to have dinner tonight with President Bush and the Queen

LOL

― dmr, Monday, 7 May 2007 18:50 (eighteen years ago)

that's not a joke btw, apparently he is invited to the state dinner tonight

― dmr, Monday, 7 May 2007 18:51 (eighteen years ago)

the queen got to take Street Sense's feedbag for a new hat.

― Dr Morbius, Monday, 7 May 2007 19:11 (eighteen years ago)

PREAKNESS PICKS:

Circular Quay
Street Sense
King of the Roxy

I'm thinking the pace will be too fast for Hard Spun with Xchanger and Flying First Class gunning it early and King of the Roxy also pressing him. Curlin may run great but he has had several huge races in a short span and you gotta expect him to go backward at some point. Street Sense hasn't been nearly as good outside of Kentucky but I just think talent-wise he's still gonna be right there maybe dueling in the stretch with Circular Quay as the speed horses collapse.

― dmr, Saturday, 19 May 2007 15:44 (eighteen years ago)

noted! but no C P West?

― Dr Morbius, Saturday, 19 May 2007 16:35 (eighteen years ago)

the only race he has ever won is a maiden race and his speed figures seem pretty low

but I can't really blame anybody who bets on a longshot from one of the typical Triple Crown powerhouse trainers (ie C P West for Zito, Flying First Class for Lukas) .... sometimes they jump up and do a lot better than what they look like on paper

I didn't use em in my bets though

― dmr, Saturday, 19 May 2007 17:53 (eighteen years ago)

holy crap, fastest preakness ever.

― hstencil, Saturday, 19 May 2007 22:20 (eighteen years ago)

great stretch run

looks like Curlin is the real deal

― dmr, Saturday, 19 May 2007 22:42 (eighteen years ago)

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