Number of people on earth

Russian 'sex day' to boost births
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6990802.stm

I read about that in morning paper. I was just wondering, if the governor really thinks people will take his advice, isn't he afraid that all the hospitals in the area will be flooded in mid-June 2008?

I always think of that Fugazi song, "FIVE BILLION PEOPLE, SO DEFINED"...

But, uh, that was 1990, I guess.

Hit refresh and you'll find the number keeps going up!

So people are still having sex.

actually at a rise of just 77 million people per year, that only puts population growth at 1.17 per year, which means the worlds population won't actually double for another 60 years

^^ 1.17%, i mean

that's not how it works

the worlds population won't actually double for another 60 years

This constitutes a fallacy, albeit, a prefectly normal and natural fallacy we all commit frequently. It's just good to notice our false assumptions from time to time.

The fallscy is to presume that a given trend will continue in the same direction and at the same rate for the indefinite future, when there is nothing about the trend which requires it to maintain a steady rate or direction. You can predict the path of a planet, or a bowling ball, but
predicting complex behaviors with thousands of variables is tough.

All animal populations oscillate, with two exceptions: those unfortunate populations that are becoming extinct, or a species entering a ecosystem it has not populated before. In the second case, the species can experience a rapid spread and population growth, but after a time, it must always reach its natural limit and fall back into the usual pattern of oscillation. Humans, in learning to exploit ever larger portions of the earth's resources, resemble the second case. That will end some day. No one knows when.

Not only do people falsely assume unlimited continued population growth in this way, but our entire economic model in the Western world assumes limitless economic growth for all time, which only a bit of thought will tell you is impossible.

OTM

Yes, but I just read FC's comment as implying that if it stays like this it won't double for 60 years. Would that be right?

if it was to grow by 1.17% every year then it would take just under 60 years to double

i don't, however have any assumptions that population growth will be exactly 1.17% a year, for the next 60 years. even a cursory reading of my post should tell you i hardly think the world is a petri dish.

or

but our entire economic model in the Western world assumes limitless economic growth for all time, which only a bit of thought will tell you is impossible

ding ding ding sherlock, i think we all know this by now!!

This is why math tests often ask you to show how you worked out your answer. I'm not even sure about the correctness of the "77 million per year" figure, or where it came from. It sounds too low, but that's just me shooting in the dark.

The U.N. has a whole office that just works on population projections, so I would look to their numbers for a better idea of what the experts project. At least they will have a model with some complex variables included.

our entire economic model in the Western world assumes limitless economic growth for all time

This isn't true at all! Our economic model only assumes growth for about as long ahead as anyone cares to think about. After that there's just a lot of shrugging and faith in the problem-solving skills of future-people.

If you ask me, the problem solving skills of contemporary people seem a bit overrated in that model.

I remember in third grade learning there were 3 billion people on earth. I feel bad for whoever this lady is who has had to crank out 3.6 billion babies in that time (see: Children of Men 2: This Time The Plural Is Appropriate).

(See also The Brood)

Yes, at schol in the 70's I recall a figure of 3 billiion too.

The population count is really kind of arbitrary, 6 billion? 10 billion? 100 billion? The meaning is pretty relative based on the fluctuating idea and fact of what the world can bear.

I mean, it's nice to know and there's always the whoa factor, but at the end it's only mind boggling and little else.

my "whoa factor" has been replaced by the "at least too high by half if that's true where's the plague" factor