WE ALL KNOW ITS COMING, the Guardian Says so, the 2007 General Election throwdown

Also, what are the odds as william Hague as next Tory Leader?

Low. He's favourite. He said yesterday, pretty categorically, that he wouldn't run.

There should've been a 'but' in there. Scans as a bit of a non-sequiter as it stands.

Q11 Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
Base: 988 British adults 18+

Crime and anti-social behaviour 56
Health care 47
Asylum and immigration 46
Education 39
Pensions 27
Iraq 26
Managing the economy 24
Taxation 23
Housing 22
Protecting the natural environment 20
Unemployment 20
Defence 16
Public transport 14
Europe 11
Animal welfare 7
Constitution / Devolution 6

Also, I've just moved. Does anyone know if I can get on the electoral roll in time for Nov 1st? Luckily, I doubt there's a safer Labour seat than this one, but I'd still feel like a bad citizen if I didn't vote.

xpost. I bet when it comes down to it, the economy matters *way* more then people say in those surveys.

The Liberals are a joke

So, very different to the other parties then.

As long as you get your name in 11 days before the election you can vote according to the man on the radio this morning (who was also predicting electoral chaos)

Cool, ta.

The Liberals are a joke from the point of view of getting elected or even retaining any seats.

Better?

CURRENT SPREAD BET SEAT PREDICTIONS:

Labour: 333
Conservative: 236
Lib Dem: 48

i'm not on the electoral thingy. could give a fuck.

Joke or no, they'll be massively squeezed this time out. Bad luck Minger.

Agreed on the economy. pocket-book voting isn't sexy but it weighs far heavier on people's satisfaction (or lack thereof) with the government than they/we think it does.

xxxxpost

Yeah but not entirely accurate I suspect. There are still plenty of disaffected Labour voters and dead-eyed tactical Tory voters out there to suck up. I don't think they're going to have a disaster.

The same MORI poll shows that the one thing the public trust Labour with above all else is the economy. Europe comes last.

Of course, whether anything short of gaining 20 odd seats is seen as a disaster in the more idealistic sections of the party is another question.

In spite of myself the more I see and hear from Cameron the more I like him. Still would never vote for the cutn though.

Correction: the more I see and hear from Cameron the more less I dislike him

I'm not even going to begin trying to understand the above two posts. I think the spread betting figures for the Lib Dems are about what I'd expect. Maybe a bit lower than 48, but not much.

let's all vote BNP, it's time for a change.

ban ^

I understand yr irony there. (xpost)

Of course the big unanswered question is: Will the Daily Express find any room for any election coverage in between the ongoing Madeleine McCann investigation and the diana Inquest?

i've never voted. i probably would have voted for blair in '97 if i was old enough. not voting this time, anyway.

Thanks for that.

I don't want an election right now. I really don't know who to vote for. I'd feel bad abt not voting but, really, I don't think much of any of them. This is the first General Election that I've been elegible to vote where I've felt this way.

Part of the problem is that I don't only feel dienfranchised coz I don't much like any of the parties but I feel alienated from the opinions of most of the electorate too.

BRING BACK HANGING

AND THE BIRCH

NEVER DID ME ANY HARM

AND THE BIRCH

I really must pay more attention. I thought it was the elm which had gone.

You forgot AND NATIONAL SERVICE.

AND ROUTEMASTER BUSES

AND MIXMASTER MORRIS

AND ROUTEMASTER BUSES

Boris Johnson actually wants to do this!

Fish Dances for new Tory them tune.

YOU COULD LEAVE YOUR FRONT DOOR OPEN

BECAUSE YOU DIDN'T OWN ANYTHING WORTH STEALING

Once the Lib-Dems do get wiped out can they please please PLEASE replace Ming with Lembit Opik?? Because that would be the best fun ever.

Probably voting lab. I really don't want Cameron in power. It's pretty bad when you find yourself voting against the most objectionable candidate rather than voting for someone who you want in power, but it's been like that since nu-lab got in in the first place. I'm depressed by this election.

aren't you in a pretty safe labour seat, pash? NE stronghold and all that.

"I'm depressed by this election."

when was the last election you felt optimistic about?

It's pretty bad when you find yourself voting against the most objectionable candidate rather than voting for someone who you want in power, but it's been like that since nu-lab got in in the first placethe early 1950s.

Fixed.

The one where the rights of the general public were up for grabs, should they want it. The one just after the war when Churchill was voted out. They don't talk much about THAT one thesedays though.

(Although, strictly speaking, I was not alive for that one)

The Liberals are a joke and will surely loose seats

why is this exactly? Is it primarily coz they made the mistake of making an old codger their leader or are there other reasons why they have seemed to have disappeared off the map? Has Lembit Opik swapping a Weather Girl for a Cheeky Girl made any discernible difference to their fortunes? There does seem to be a bias against them in the media in terms of ignoring them rather than any outright hostility.

Can we be so sure that it hasn't *always* been the case that ppl have had to vote against the most objectionable candidate rather than voting for someone ppl want in power, since the introduction of universal suffrage? Dom cites the 1950s, but maybe this is only coz this is the earliest period he knows about.

aren't you in a pretty safe labour seat, pash? NE stronghold and all that.

Yeah, the labour party could run a horse as a candidate and they'd still win, the next village along is still known among older locals as "little moscow". I used to vote for the green candidate just so they wouldn't lose their deposit, but I quit doing that after their candidate groped my wife on the bus (true!)

It wasn't depressing when nu-lab first got into power. Admittedly it got depressing pretty quickly when blair started sucking rothermere and murdoch's cocks, but for a very short while, it was pretty great.

The fortunes of the Green Party in my ward will be pretty interesting - 22% of the vote in the last election.

Brighton?

I'm glad - it would have been immoral. Whoever would have won would have done so on the lowest turnout in history, which would be appalling for democracy. Pity the whole tenor of politics is about who's hardest, who's a wimp, etc.

but to think "looks like it's possible we might not win so no election" is immoral too

it isn't like labour or brown couldn't have squashed the question of it as soon as it arose instead of going "ooooh we don't know" or "oooh not gonna say" until they found out they don't "have" a good/clear margin according to whomever

Fucked off Labour MPs are blaming Brown's young campaign team for pumping him up with testosterone and then flaking.

Diane Abbott meanwhile is not-quite-but-almost saying "thank fuck for that, bit cold and wet to be campaigning in November isn't it?"

xpost-I don't think it's immoral in the sense that every election sincer forever has been called by the incumbents on the basis of a chance of winning/length of term remaining trade off. I think Ming is right about fixed terms.

if brown were anywhere near his spinned out "no spin" character, he could have fixed it in a way that didn't make him look like a conniving wimp or a fanny effectively saying "yeah I know I'm a conniving wimp but this is how it's been sincer forever"

Presumably the Tory elements who keep prattling on about him not having a mandate were disgusted when John Major failed to call an election on taking over from Thatcher and instead sat in power right to the end of their term in the hope that his fortunes would improve at some point. And presumably the Tory elements prattling on about cowardice think that Thatcher should have called a snap election while Britain was falling to pieces in 1981 instead of waiting for the Falklands bounce.

Of course it's not immoral. It's politics as it is done under this system. Cameron can bitch about it as much as he likes but he would have done the same thing. Is he calling for fixed terms? Of course not, the tories know how to play this game better than anyone.

And of course Cammy'll go on and on and on and on about it but eventually it'll look stale and Brown can and should play the "actually I'm too busy running the country to get into these silly little games" which is all the tories can do.

ooops xp

Does anyone else really hate the way that Nick Robinson slimes his way around as if he's absolutely nothing to do with all the "speculation" he's sneering about. Christ he's irritating.

I mean, I have no memory of politics before the 80s, but from what I can remember the first Thatcher government was massively unpopular and at one stage behind not just Foot's Labour but also the SDP. But they waited until they went ahead in the polls following the Falklands and then called and won an early (i.e. with a year spare) election. The second Thatcher government was very unpopular and well behind Kinnock's Labour for quite a while, but once they managed to get ahead in the polls they called and won another early election. The third Thatcher government rapidly became massively unpopular to the extent that they had to ditch Thatcher to survive, but Major found himself bang in the middle of recession of his own making and so likely to lose an election. So he didn't call one until the last minute when he had no choice and even then everyone expected him to lose (but somehow he didn't). The next Major government soon became ludicrously unpopular and stayed that way, so he just sat there until his five years were up and then called an election because he had no choice and everyone expected him to lose (which he did in spectacular style). Then Blair took over and was safely ahead in every poll apart from about one week of fuel protest wobbles, so he called an election when he felt like it and won easily. Then he had a war and lost a lot of his support but still stayed ahead and so called another election when he felt like and won (though less easily).

Basically, for as long as I know, the government has called an election when it thinks it will win and hasn't called one when it thinks it might not unless it hasn't had any choice. I don't really see why all of a sudden there should be pressure on Brown to give the Tories a sporting chance, and the only people who are going to be whinging about it are people that would never have voted for Labour in the first place.

Amen. I think we can put that one to rest, at least here. For everyone else it's a different matter.

I don't really see why all of a sudden there should be pressure on Brown to give the Tories a sporting chance, and the only people who are going to be whinging about it are people that would never have voted for Labour in the first place.

pretty obviously it's because for the past three weeks or more brown has been hinting at calling an election. it isn't pressure to give the tories a sporting chance, just pressure to not be a dithering dick who lacks the faith in his party to call an election even with a huge majority and -- until a week ago -- good lead in the polls. i've never though he needed to call an election once in office, but he has brought the current (i am guessing, haven't even seen the nes) crowing on himself, utterly. labour really dropped the ball with this one.

if it's immoral either way i don't know. probably not as immoral as being complicit in the deaths of tens of thousands of iraqis, which they all are, but you knew that. if brown is all about 'change' as he frequently iterates, then it's hard to say holding an election is immoral.

...just pressure to not be a dithering dick who lacks the faith in his party to call an election even with a huge majority and -- until a week ago -- good lead in the polls...

Having a 'huge' majority (which isn't actually that huge) has fuck all to do with how you'll do in an election. The only thing that matters is the votes in the election - you don't get extra points for holding the seats at the start of the day. And, as you said, a week ago (immediately after the Labour conference) he had a transient boost in the polls. Sensibly he decided to wait until after the Tory conference, and whaddyaknow, the Tories have got a transient boost and that lead has evaporated. He's only been dithering in that he had to wait until after conference season to find out what the chances were of winning. As it stands they're not high enough for him to feel justified in potentially throwing away half a term for no good reason.

in that case he shouldn't have gone public re the prospect of a "snap election", shouldn't have done the iraq stunt, shouldn't have brought forward the pre-budget report.

the labour majority is pretty huge and incumbency does have its benefits. time will tell but this really looks like a big blunder because he had a chance to kill off the cameron generation and he's given them a respite.

Haha, can't believe some of the nonsense people are spouting about the non-calling of an imaginary election

i never once actually heard or read a statement from Brown about an election, only heard/read indirect speculation.

haha. yerse. it was being leaked like crazy by his team and was publicly signalled by the iraq trip, the bringing forward of the pre-budget report, etc. it was a definite project which he abandoned.

A reminder of the political minds of tory activists: Dressing up as bottles of beer outside westminster..

Didn't Callaghan spurn a chance to call an election in the autumn of '78 (though I'm not sure of the course of events; obv he could've gone to the country at any time of his choosing, perhaps it was just a storm of media speculation like this one) - I remember the phrase "cut and run" entering my 10-y-o brane for the first time - but hung on until the end of Labour term by which time we'd had the worst winter since '62/'63 and a mass of industrial action. Cue Thatch.

that rings a bell, yup.

labour's lowest point was in 1977 and it looked like they'd recovered a bit by mid-1978. and... then...

Apparently (i.e. according to the Andrew Marr book) everyone was expecting Callaghan to announce an election at the Labour conference. Rather bizarrely he decided to sing "There was I, waiting at the church, waiting at the church, waiting at the church, when I found he'd left me in the lurch, Lor, how it did upset me!" instead. Perhaps Brown can win back some respect by calling a press conference so that he can sing "Knees up Mother Brown" to the nation. (Or, perhaps, to his mother now that I think of it).

So now we know. Gordon Brown never thought a snap election was a good idea but, apparently, he was almost talked into it by Labour MPs in marginal seats who said he would win it for them.

Then, when push came to shove and after deliberately letting the issue dominate the party conference season, he considered it and "came back to my first instinct".

Of course, he took account of opinion polls and the views of those MPs, but decided it was right to give voters the chance to consider his vision for the future of the country and see some delivery of that vision.

It was never about the opinion polls and chances of victory or an attempt to wrong foot the opposition parties.

However, after a weekend he happily admitted had not been his best, he took full responsibility for the decision and was not swinging the axe at the heads of any of his advisers.

That, at least, is the explanation the prime minister gave for the first blunder of his premiership which brought his political honeymoon to a crashing end.

right way to explain it i guess

lil bit of sour grapes at the end there from media pov ("thanks a bunch G what are we going to do now with the election off and Maddie out of the headlines??")

put Maddie back in the headlines, obviously - they've managed to fill about a hundred front pages already with absolutley no story "Missing child: still missing!"

where's that absolute crock of shit -- "after deliberately letting the issue dominate the party conference season" -- from?

meanwhile The jury hearing the inquest into the deaths of Princess Diana and Dodi Al Fayed is spending the day in Paris retracing the couple's final movements.

\o_O/

deliberate as in not trying to conceal the fact that he was mulling it over (for too long) if this was actually doable?

So, probably right to not call it now then?

because of the double-sports-defeat weekend blues?

Con 37 (-3), Lab 33 (+1), Lib Dem 19 (+3)

Cameron leads Brown 44-40 on "Who would make the best PM?". Brown leads Cameron 44-39 on "Who is the strongest leader?"

Ha ha, Tories, you're gonna lose AGAIN

"Hey lads, I've had a brilliant new idea! How about we force the unemployed into jobs, and stop their benefits if they won't go?"

I have _no_ idea who the fuck Cameron is trying to win over at the moment.

http://users.ox.ac.uk/~peter/workhouse/lit/StandingAtTheWorkhouseGateCover.gif

Bring back Callaghan

http://www.movieactors.com/photos-2003/eastwood-dirtyharry.jpeg

Obama and Cameron would look _really_ weird standing next to each other.

http://www.rankinbass.com/images2/ispy.jpg

I have _no_ idea who the fuck Cameron is trying to win over at the moment.

-- Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 8 January 2008 11:14 (7 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

Other conservatives.

Also, it seems too often when the Democrats get in, the tories get in over here, and when the repubs get in it's labour over here.

Nick Clegg may actually save the Labour party, considering his strategy for the Lib Dems appears to be focussed on taking votes from the Tories rather than Labour.

i would only vote for this sanction if it was imposed on junkies on incapacity benefit , they still commit crime on methadone and benefit so theres no loss there.
as for foreigners id give no benefits at all , enforce sterilisation on them that do gain entry. give no council housing to them also.
make life so difficult for these parasites that they wont want to come to britain.
god save the queen.

That's pretty much Nick Clegg's manifesto for the next election, actually.

Nick Clegg may actually save the Labour party, considering his strategy for the Lib Dems appears to be focussed on taking votes from the Tories rather than Labour.

OTM. Or, strangely, the more right-wing the LibDems get, the more effort Brown is going to put in to courting them.

Lib Dems should be concentrating on taking votes from the Tories, they've got a far better chance of winning more seats that way

http://www.sarednabworldprops.com/img/bttf/009.jpg

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pPYCX-TwMrI/R7fyQxqdN-I/AAAAAAAAAkM/P6t4w_yiwHU/s400/Woulda_Coulda_Shoulda.jpg

LAST WORDS OF A FOOL

Q11 Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
Base: 988 British adults 18+

Crime and anti-social behaviour 56
Health care 47
Asylum and immigration 46
Education 39
Pensions 27
Iraq 26
Managing the economy 24
Taxation 23
Housing 22
Protecting the natural environment 20
Unemployment 20
Defence 16
Public transport 14
Europe 11
Animal welfare 7
Constitution / Devolution 6

Ah, happy more carefree times.