Oscars 2008 Pre-game Shenanigans

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/film/2007/12/there_will_be_an_oscar_for_dan.html

Is it nuts to think No Country and There Will Be Blood will both end up as Picture noms? They seem safe enough (critically acclaimed, relatively mainstream (esp. NC)), but then academy doesn't like bleak.

Atonement is ripe for the picking.

pta will get nommo'd best director, but it doesn't feel very best pic.

Daniel Day has Actor handicapped.

he basically only does oscar films, which i think is lame but there we have it.

fuck this thread

don't get your peachpit head swelled, legendmeister.

Has anyone got the Golden Globes nominations list? The BBC just has a news story wanging on about the British votes.

I don't really care much about the Enrique-Morbius beef, but there really doesn't seem to be much need for this thread while the Detrius thread is active. We could move the conversation here when nominations are announced, though.

as noted above, Atonement will win best picture.

I'm gonna go with the crazy dark horse pick and say Depp for best actor, Page best actress.

all of these in ref. to the Oscars, mind you, not the GGs.

also I have just noticed that Into the Wild got completely snubbed except for...Vedder!!

I'm with jaymc in the sense that the Oscars have always gotten their own thread. This one got started way early, but so did the detrius thread.

And as I predicted on the other thread, PTA will almost surely end up the odd director out, if he even gets nominated (they do have Lumet to attend to over there). Best picture will for sure be:

Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd

And then the other two slots are a toss up between Michael Clayton, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Charlie Wilson's War and American Gangster. There Will Be Blood is apparently too divisive to break into this lineup.

And, yeah, if Blood gets no other support outside of Day-Lewis, it will be hard to imagine him actually winning. I doubt Depp would be stepping in ftw, but maybe McAvoy? The last time Day-Lewis surprisingly lost was to a hot young male ingenue.

When Day-Lewis beat Cruise, he was the hot young male ingenue, but he had the paralysis thing going for him.

Charlie Wilson's War being nominated would almost be worse than Crash winning. But I doubt very much it'll happen, after all folx expecting a "Best Comedy" see a Muslim warrior get up from prayer and fire a rocket launcher at the audience... in the opening shot. Still ,fuck the GGs for resurrecting it.

has CWW been screened yet?

It's been a trailer for EVERY MOVIE I've seen in the last month, and during the pre-show a handful of other times.

it opens on the 21st. Committed H'wood lefties may not like stories that it's been edited with a chainsaw to play down the fact that, uhhh, Afghanistan didn't turn out so good really.

Sounds right up their alley, really. But it will probably go the way of The American President, right?

That said, what a relief Rob Reiner's latest is turning out to be a non-entity. As bad as Oscar taste is, it could always get worse.

xp: oh, The Amer Prez was Sorkin too, right? I hate the guy's smarmy kowtowing to liberal fantasies, so I sure hope so.

Yeah, it was Sorkin before Sorkin was SORKIN. It was written in the Clinton years, hence its almost total lack of dramatic urgency.

we could also be referring to A Few Good Men.

xp

oh, that hasn't changed! CWW is 97 minutes long, and half that time is Hanks drinking, whoring and trying to escape drug charges. Balanced against, you know, a 10-year war w/ the USSR.

Yes, but the Reagan years were like that.

So naturally Hanks is the one NOT getting nominated? (xpost)

Hoffman is actually good in it. Hanks is certainly the first name I think of to play a 6'4" Texas hedonist.

morbz why the fuck do you care about this movie so much

To the extent I care, it distorts recent history.

So does Hairspray.

well, "recent" in relative terms

well I bet Hairspray doesn't have "Based on a true story" title upfront (even tho it is)

59 Best Song eligibles?

http://www.cinematical.com/2007/12/16/academy-announces-59-contenders-for-original-song-oscar/

CHUCK WORKMAN SOBS QUIETLY

The Writers Guild has notified the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and Dick Clark Productions that their requests for an agreement to allow writers to prepare material for the 65th Annual Golden Globe Awards show have been denied.

The Guild has also denied a request from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences for a waiver in connection with the use of clips from motion pictures and past Academy Awards shows for use during the annual Academy Awards presentation.

clips from motion pictures and past Academy Awards shows

Wait, how is this any different from showing reruns?

I look forward to the fat-free Oscars. How about...an hour?

xp: new context? u see, Chuck Workman CREATES.

Anyone who complains about the length of the Oscar telecast doesn't really love the Oscars. The fact that it's a bloated, self-congratulatory mess is part of the appeal.

I envision Jon Stewart doing his Reggie Van Gleason voice at least 6 times. "HOOOOOOO, no cuhlips!"

an oscars without the canned quips would be refreshing

Yeah, hearing Clooney & Co bait the FCC with improvised 'filth' wd be way more exciting.

I mean, I kinda get why people like the long telecast, but I don't want to stay up until 1am just to find out that, yes, Atonement won after all.

Haha, it would maybe be the first time the movie winning outdoes the actual show for phony pomp.

from the NYT:

"...though a request had not yet been made, the union’s directors had already decided they would not grant a waiver for writers, including the prospective host Jon Stewart, to work on the show. Mr. Stewart declined to comment in an e-mail message sent on Tuesday."

I am envisioning the Oscars becoming a 60-minute PBS special.

he basically only does oscar films, which i think is lame but there we have it.

Except for that Terry Gilliam movie that no one saw.

And what is the deal with these Oscar-bait roles knocking me on my ass this year? First Amy Ryan, then Hal Holbrook. Now Vanessa Redgrave. I am turning into Rex Reed.

Eric, when are you coming out for Julie Christie?

have Atonement and Sweeney Todd both lost their Oscar glow, as far as getting 6-8 nominations goes?

Yes they have. I'm sort of wondering if Atonement will get anything outside of maybe one acting nod and costume design.

Middlebrow meaning lack of aspirations to be anything other than tasteful.

I know it's easier to bash films people are talking about than it is to give a shit one way or the other about movies no one cares about these days, but Morbs, have you tried to actually watch Out of Africa lately? What a nothing film that one is. I'd rather was Michael Clayton 10 times in a row.

well, of course I haven't. I wouldn't even try to watch Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon today.

... and y'know, as Isak Dinesen films go, Babette's Feast > Out of Africa. At least then.

How exactly did Cate Blanchett get restored to favorite in Supp Actress? I assumed her chances tanked with (the entirely foreseeable)mainstream rejection of I'm Not there, but most everyone's picking her ro "repeat." Is she the new Dianne Wiest/Jason Robards?

she'll play Paul Muni in an upcoming biopic.

Chris Orr's picks.

Who ought to win: Joel and Ethan Coen. (If not for the disastrous finale of There Will Be Blood, I might go the other way on this.)

Amy Ryan is on The Wire?

Weird, I thought a lot more people thought the finale to No Country was disastrous than Blood's.

Of course, if we were going strictly by the last minutes of every film, then give the award to Atonement.

Hey, Holbrook fans: didjda read this EW interview? It's cute.

I don't see Blood winning both cinematog & a.d. (or maybe either), but otherwise I think tehse match mine:

http://www.thefilmexperience.net/Awards/2007/tally.html

Yeah, Amy Ryan is in season 2 and back in a few season 4 eps, for sure (can't remember if she showed up in between).

(I'm not watching season 5 yet but it seems like she'd have a pretty big role?)

For the record, I'm still seeing supporting actress as a Dee/Ryan showdown, but grudgingly admit that Clayton prolly has to win something and Swinton's category is the softest.

most yielding

I see Ed is going Swinton... haha, I'm Not There is "possibly more obnoxious than American Gangster," that guy is getting a talking-to when I finally meet him...

I'm pretty sure I remember him saying that movie would've been on his list of "worsts" if they would have done them this year.

YES. Mr. 29 Palms!

I hated that one too.

anyone read EW's usual interviews with anonymous insider voters? Not a single one of the four voted for Christie or Blanchett.

Yeah, and all six voted for Bardem too, so :( for Holbrook.

i'm taking holbrook (mostly because i don't want bardem to win, i haven't even seen into the wild), and blanchett for similarly rah-rah reasons.

well, are these individuals reliable bellwethers? Like, the Baldwin brothers?

Holbrook's nomination is honor enough; before this role he'd become to me exactly what he was when I was 7 years old: Mark Twain (not even Deep Throat).

Can't see the Academy going Cotillard/Cate; do they want bio-melodramas or freewheeling meditations?

I really don't see lack-of-Dylan-fandom being the explanation for ppl who dislike/hate INT; I mostly liked Velvet Goldmine and never really got (retrospectively) the faggy glam thing...

Gad, I'd no idea Holbrook was in "Evening Shade."

(I'm not watching season 5 yet but it seems like she'd have a pretty big role?)

not really, she's just in the background. underutilized (i love her), but the wire has so many good people that everybody ends up underutilized.

help me fill out my pool ballot. sound editing/mixing? should i just assume these are going to no country?

consensus seems to be that Bourne may well win one of those.

(also see Slant & FilmExperience links above)

foreign language? i haven't seen any of these. counterfeiters has some buzz i guess.

don't bet vs Nazis

i guess it helps that it's austrian, so they don't have to give it to two german films in a row.

ok i went ahead and put bardem. sigh. (will be kicking myself if hh pulls it out.) sticking with cate, though, on general principles.

shitload of "best oscars ever" guff in UK press today. will be so glad for it all to be over. wonder if 'semi pro' and 'vantage point' will get a look-in next year. guess not.

A friend insists Cotillard will win, and maybe in another year she might since the role is pure Oscar bait (playing a real person, she cries, screams, lunges across the room).

(It will be Dee and not Swinton I mark on my personal pool ballot, btw.)

Not on uk tv?

apparently not! i think it might be on sky?

I can only seem to find "red carpet coverage" on E, which we don't get.

weird

it is really. guess the beeb was priced out, and to be fair no-one watches it anyway -- snug in that popular 2am on monday morning slot.

You'd think someone would at least pick it up to show Monday night, like itv(?) did w the grammys. I'd watch it.

i searched radiotimes.com for 'oscar' and 'academy' and got jack.

it's on sky premier pay-for-view and sky one tomorrow night. really looking forward to the clips on the jonathan ross show*

isn't it on Sky Movies? It was last year.

uh, xpost.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/02/23/movies/20080223_REVENUE_GRAPHIC.html

mmm chocolate swirl!

Since (soon)this is no longer pre-game, shouldn't there be a show/postmortem thread?

OSCARTOPSY 2008

It's on Sky Movies right now.

OK, I laughed like a fool over Jon Stewart's Olympia Dukakis gag.

Badolf Titler. Hilarious, Jon. Really. Who's writing these jokes, Nelson Muntz?

I hope that entire room gets somehow blown to smithereens and only Javier Bardem is somehow spared

Rolling CHALLENGING OPINIONS thread 2008

I can't bring myself to start a new thread in October, but it has begun:

http://weblogs.variety.com/thompsononhollywood/2008/10/oscar-watch-wal.html