Trimble's referendum

I think Trimble's idea is stupid and will soon be forgotten. everyone knows there is a pro-Union majority in Northern Ireland, there really is no point wasting everyone's time having a referendum about it.

I think that's Trimbles point - after all I don't thimnk everyone does know that the Unionists have a majority (a lot of people in England don't). Point is the peace process has appeared to be working towards a united Ireland, this is leaving the Unionists disillusioned and increasing th likelihood of Unionist violence.

Problem is what would be achieved by the referendum. And should it be a referendum of NI or the entire UK (entire UK I would imagine would probably vote for a United Ireland!).

Problem is what would be achieved by the referendum. And should it be a referendum of NI or the entire UK (entire UK I would imagine would probably vote for a United Ireland!).

you raise an interesting point - the Northern Unionists might have a right to stay out of a United Ireland, but do they have a right to be in a United Kingdom that doesn't want them?

don't get me wrong though, I'm from the Republic of Ireland and dead against a united Ireland.

Which of course is another interesting point. Obviously Eire should have a referendum to say if you want 'em or not. I can certainly envision a set of referendums saying at nobody wants Northern Ireland. Then somewhere like Iceland will come in and say we'll have them.

taking sides: god war vs cod war

what then happens if the UK decides they don't want them, then Eire does the same? Will the continental chainsaw be applied and N. Ireland go sailing off into the Atlantic?

Poor old Northern Ireland. DV nothwithstanding, a majority of Ireland would vote to have them back, would they not?

The thing about mainland Britain not wanting them is an interesting one. Up to the 80s, didn't a lot of Republicans not really realise that? I was watching that recent documentary about the history of the peace process and the NI secretary of the mid 80s said that making the IRA understand that the British government really weren't interested in NI as a 'colony' anymore and were desperate for a way to get out had been a serious turning point. Hmm.. I may be misremembering this.

Is the Catholic population of NI still forecast to overtake the Protestant one in about 20 years time?

I only said I don't want a united Ireland. most people here would like one.

what are your reasons for not wanting a united Ireland DV? The economy of Eire is doing pretty well at the moment, isn't it? I would imagine that Northern Ireland would have a detrimental effect on this if Ireland was unified.

NI might be poorer, but assuming there wasn't a continuation of the violence by Unionists [and retaliation from Republicans (rebranded as 'Loyalists'??)] then overall the peace dividend of security and international goodwill would surely make it an economic winner? Germany seemed to cope with reunification OK and there were two SERIOUSLY disparate economies.

In above, 'assuming' is prob. cloudcuckooland.

my reason is I am against Nationalism. also, I don't see the point of a united Ireland. Anyone in Ireland can go and live in any bit of Ireland and legally work and vote there, so what difference would it make if there was one government over the whole thing?

Also, whiny northerners annoy me.

Nick, why do you assume that political unification of the island would lead to a peace dividend? alternatively, why would a peace dividend be impossible without it?

> I only said I don't want a united Ireland. most people here would like one.

it's hard to say, but all but one of the Irish people *I* know don't want a united Ireland. i know i don't, partly for selfish economic reasons but mostly because it's no more a solution than NI belonging to the UK.

In answer to first question, I don't. Hence ny cloudcuckooland postscript. In answer to the second, you're right. But I somehow think that even if Northern Ireland, the rest of the world wouldn't be without a uinted Ireland. They would always simplify it into an 'oh, the Irish still haven't won' thing. But yeah, you're right, if there was long term peace without a united Ireland that would prob. be economically as good.

'if Northern Ireland' = 'if Northern Ireland was happy'

Oh and your definition of economically OK wrt Germany is I think a pretty bad example. East Germany was a sponge for West German money for well over ten years and they are still paying for it. Inequities not exactly the same vis a vis NI but certain changes (utilities ahoy!) will make a big difference.

I know Germany had its problems but when you consider the vastness of the enterprise and the speed with which it was done I still consider it an astonishing success.

there is one obvious difference between Ireland and Germany:

Ireland has a border running through it because a big chunk of people up north want no truck with a united Ireland.

Germany had a border running through it because other countries felt happier with their being two Germanies rather than one, and occupied the country to ensure this remained the case.

Yes yes. I wasn't trying to compare the two partitions' reasons.

DV, what interested me wasn't so much Trimble's proposal but Sinn fein's reaction which was quite warm to the idea.
I suppose it means one of two things. a. that they've wholeheartedly accepted the idea of a democratic vote being used to determine the future of the province. or b. They think they're going to win. I know that from the latest census the protestants are in the majority but does it mean anymore that they'll be guaranteed to be unionist. I suspect Trimble may be in for a surprise if it ever goes ahead.

I think Sinn Fein are being quite clever here. They know what the demographic situation in NI is at the moment, and recognise that nationalists probably won't win a referendum. But they are aware that there might well be a catholic majority in the North in 20-30 years and by accepting a vote now they gain a little moral high ground if any future vote goes against the unionists. If they didn't go along with it now they'd be in a stickier position calling for a referendum later and, hey, the worst thing that might happen from their point of view is the maintenance of the status quo.

An Irish friend of mine said that Sinn Fein accepted some time ago the right of the current NI population to determine its own fate, so this isn't really news, Billy. Of course, my friend could have been lying.

If you had to put up with the reaction to Trimbles comments you'd go mad.

Which reaction, Ronan?

Sorry I'm back at the computer now.

Basically over here people my age (and possibly everyone else I don't know) are going mad about the stuff Trimble said about Ireland being monoethnic or whatever and the general criticism he made of the republic. It's all "that bastard can't say that, I hate those unionist bastards".

And I mean the only reason he said it was because he knew it would sting a bit being based on what was true not too long ago. gah....maybe I should be going mad, but I'm not patriotic and I don't care what David Trimble or anyone else thinks of Ireland.

Completely unexpected AFIC. I visited NI last summer for the first time in ten years (once studied there) and despite the ceasefire and ‘peace process’ on the streets it seemed more polarised than ever. The Unionist community seemed especially twitchy with paramilitary/terrorist and loyalist flags far more evident.

I don’t see what Trimbles’ proposal would achieve, ‘bury the issue for a generation’? I don’t think so. The Unionists may still have the majority, the Nationalists the demographics on their side and they know it. Should the referendum actually be lost there is a real risk of civil war. Trimble would be better served trying to make the Belfast Agreement work and stick at it, rather than wasting energy on a polarising referendum that would resolve nothing.

Ronan, how likely are SF to hold the balance of power after the elections in the Republic?

Not too likely this time around. Fianna Fail look like being in government again and they should find someone else to jump into bed with rather than Sinn Fein who aren't quite accepted enough yet. Not by everyone. Their vote (SF) tends to be students actually, young people of my age in general, who are kind of taken with the idea of Sinn Fein being a socialist party, Sinn Fein play up to this with Che Guevara association after Che Guevara association.

Hell some of their voters are just Celtic fans. As you can imagine, with their "new" status, they're kind of trendy at the moment. Next election, 5 years time, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them in.

This time round, I guess there's a slim outside chance of FF caving and going in with SF, given a certain hung Dail type situation.

Should the referendum actually be lost there is a real risk of civil war

Stevo, unfortunately I think you're right. I fear that it's only the presecence of the Brits which is preventing a situation similar to that post break up of Yugoslavia.