Rolling UK Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

good idea, nice to have a thread to use for the next few years. here's a link to the discussion on that old thread: This the thread about the post-Thatcher British economy

we are in a larger mess than the US

Speak for yourself.

the uk, collectively is in a more precarious position. You are correct in some respects about me, as I expect to be made redundant sometime in the next 18-24 months

Though as i do not work in finance, property or retail i would expect a certain time lag before job losses filter through. but filter through they will

what do you work in, laxalt?

Computers

Might be good (haven't heard yet):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/factual/pip/i2uff/

I can't work out whether I hate the heads buried in the sand or the self-fulfilling prophecy style doom-mongering more at the moment. If you can keep your job and keep your debt down to a manageable level you'll be fine.

Formal complaint by Radiohead: recession and debt worries cause low sales of limited edition £40 In Rainbows discbox. "Don't people WANT the future? What's so cool about food?" quipped Thom Yorke at a press conference, adding, "Gordon Brown is a safe pair of hands. I've got all his records at home - sorry, who is it we're talking about again?"

self-fulfilling prophecy style doom-mongering

"we're in danger of talking ourselves into a recession"???

I can't work out whether I hate the heads buried in the sand or the self-fulfilling prophecy style doom-mongering more at the moment. If you can keep your job and keep your debt down to a manageable level you'll be fine.

-- Matt DC, Tuesday, January 22, 2008 1:37 PM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

i think the heads-buried thing just about steals this, because it's been going on for SUCH A LONG TIME.

Hey guys with some positive thinking perhaps we can talk ourselves into another boom

No I was saying that hysterical media coverage tends to exacerbate pre-existing problems, same as anything.

true. the headline of daily mail is asking for the same panic measures bernanke just dished out in the US.

though to be fair..i think the media has downplayed the economic situation over the last 6 months (its amazing its taken this long for the stock market to do this!)

Who the hell was gambling on the stock market between august and today?

Kate McCann?

she was too busy shaving

the BBC market data system (the back end that provides live updates of financial markets) has had so many requests today that it has fallen over

http://www.dkimages.com/discover/previews/746/52320.JPG

basically

self-fulfilling prophecy style doom-mongering more at the moment.

actually this really doesn't make any sense.

1. it wasn't really until this month that the press bothered with any of this beyond house prices (and even then they were spinning 'a year of stagnation') and northern rock (often treated as some kind of weird one off). Lower house prices in themselves are not 'doom-mongering' at all anyway, as they (theoretically) make it easier for first time buyers (though in practice it doesn't work out this way)

I haven't seen much 'recession coverage' anywhere other than the independent, until the last few days, and the redtops still haven't even touched it at all!

2. I just can't buy it being a self-prophecy coming true. I don't think ANY of the coverage has been doom-mongering for the simple fact that i think the facts are much worse than have been reported and it is precisely this which means every event is somehow a 'shock, when it was obvious for a long time

cf. the date this thread was started

Well we did tag along on that thatcher thread for a while, but yes the thread should have been started last summer really

haha woops i thought this was the "will the housing bubble be worse than the dotcom bubble" thread, which was started about two years ago

which, as a pre-emptive thread was probably a couple years too late even then

1. Not true - I've seen this covered at length in the Guardian, Times, Telegraph, FT (pretty much every day obviously), and to a lesser extent the Mail. As far as I can remember most of these has taken the 'may tip the global economy into recession' line which seems a sensible one to take.

2. I'm not saying there isn't going to be a recession (its likely there will be, there may just be a significant slowdown). In what way are the events of the last couple of days a shock to anyone who has taken even a passing interest over the last couple of weeks? The Indy a few weeks ago hd a front of enormous stormclouds gathering over Britain with 'THE PERFECT STORM' written on it, that's pretty doom-mongering isn't it, regardless of whether or not they were right?

Okay lets get the basics down before we go any further:

- When politicans keep saying "the economic fundamentals are sound" are we to assume they're just bullshitting?

- What was it that enabled Britain to ride out the recession in the early 00s? Presumably the conditions are so different this time around that this couldn't happen again?

- Assuming an ILX thread four years ago could have prevented this, what could people have done to prevent this in the early 00s?

1. 'may tip' is hardly excessive

2. they were a shock to those people who hadn't got themselves out of shares

The Independents headlines are always like that about everything, but I don't think that perfect storm headline was doom-mongering at all. 'perfect storm' refers to a series of events that were already well underway

if the fundamentals of the uk economy are strong, as we are told, then they will not be shaken by newspaper headlines as people would take advantage of the uncertainty. but the fundamentals of the uk economy are not strong in the slightest
(relying on unemployment data is downright dishonest)

I would still suggest that this is merely a difficult year, next year worse, but 2010 probably the big one. I still think that the press has glossed over how bad this is, even now

but 2010 probably the big one

Oh well then, fuck it, we've got to two more years to party

-When politicans keep saying "the economic fundamentals are sound" are we to assume they're just bullshitting?

yes, its called positive spin. they rely on two things

1) inflation. believe that?
2) unemployment. always the last domino to fall, because jobs get cut because outlook is bad, not the other way round

- What was it that enabled Britain to ride out the recession in the early 00s? Presumably the conditions are so different this time around that this couldn't happen again?

because there was a huge shift of debt from industry/govt to consumers, the british public basically took on the debt, ie we spent our way out of it. or, rather more to the point, we BORROWED our way out of it, and got very heavily in debt. the proposed solution appears to borrow and spend some more

- Assuming an ILX thread four years ago could have prevented this, what could people have done to prevent this in the early 00s?

thats a much longer question, but nipping speculative bubbles in the bud is a good start, and perhaps actually taking that recession then, rather than this bigger one now. also, engaging in productive activities, rather than speculation

basically, you cant put off recessions, they've been happening for 300+ years! if you put them off you store them up for later. banks lend lend lend, contraction occurs, people get caught high and dry

Oh well then, fuck it, we've got to two more years to party

comparatively, i think this year will be very bad, but it will get worse after that before it improves

- Assuming an ILX thread four years ago could have prevented this, what could people have done to prevent this in the early 00s?

- given frank the success they deserved
- adopted 'hen fap' meme
- film threads

- rockism
- geezaesthetics

I mean, i'd love to hear an economic fundamental other than 2% inflation (your loaf of bread, train ticket, gas bill, petrol go up by 2% this year?) and low unemployment, but that seems to be it! perhaps its our industries of finance (um), housing (er), buying with our credit cards (weelll...)?

- realized why 1974 is crucial here

- marcello carlin 'character'

perhaps its our industries of finance (um), housing (er), buying with our credit cards (weelll...)?

This is the problem really, the economy of this country is over-reliant on the City, we don't make anything* we just shunt money around. This would never have happened under Becky Lucas.

*Not much good either if export markets slump as well.

So, really, that 'economic fundamentals are sound' looks exactly like bullshit

GORDON BROWN: It's all the more remarkable that inflation generally is low, when you have, as everybody acknowledges, rising food prices round the world and rising oil and commodity prices.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/politics_show/7202283.stm

It's all the more remarkable that black is generally white

TWO in every five employers plan redundancies over the next three months, according to an influential survey to be published tomorrow. It comes as two leading business groups warn of weak business confidence and a sharp slowdown in growth.

Retailers had been very downbeat about prospects for January following a poor December, with like-for-like sales rising only 0.3%. This week’s figures will come as a relief, but the BRC is likely to warn that any strength is likely to be temporary.

This will be the big fear if the warning of many redundancies from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development comes true. Its winter labour market outlook, also in conjunction with KPMG, is set to show that 38% of the more than 1,500 employers surveyed plan redundancies over the next three months, with a quarter intending to let go at least 10 employees.

Although it is normal for a proportion of employers to be planning redundancies, the latest figure is sharply up on the 17% number three months ago.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3340863.ece

and to think i took public service job last year 'just until something better comes along'.

"Everything is OK because unemployment is low" can never be a good barometer of anything. Things aren't OK because unemployment is low! Its the other way round. Unemployment is low when things are OK. More accurately - unemployment is low when future outlook suggests more people will be needed to do/make things/services. Obviously the future outlook for the economy is very poor - therefore people will be let go

Unless of course people go on long term incapacity benefit - in which case unemployment can carry on being as low for as long as you like

Recession claims first casualty

Unless of course people go on long term incapacity benefit - in which case unemployment can carry on being as low for as long as you like

-- laxalt, Monday, February 11, 2008 3:58 PM (3 days ago) Bookmark Link

^^^ this. unemployment isn't low. people claiming JSA is comparatively low. depends how you slice and dice the figures innit.

How nice that the Times should include a detailed definition of the term "bankruptcy" in that Statto piece for the benefit of all those thrusting Thatcherkids who haven't got time to learn English. Still I suppose many thrusting Thatcherkids will know what the word means soon enough.

http://www.phill.co.uk/comedy/dadsarmy/da78.jpg

Saudi is manipulating the price to fuck up everyone else and try to get long term competitor projects canned. It's going to be an economic disaster for Nigeria, Russia, Venezuela, Brazil, etc and potentially the US in the long run. Also makes it less attractive to invest in green energy. Oh no! does not seem far off the mark.

you saying the reason oil is low is because Saudi Arabia is initiating a price war? i don't know much about OPEC

i was under the impression the problem is the underlying weak demand for oil (which sounds good for green energy?), in which case a falling price is good, that's just the new equilibrium price. you hear pundits get this wrong all the time, say shit like "low cost of oil is hurting the global economy"--no, weak global demand created a low cost of oil. cheap inputs are good for the global economy

There was a big OPEC showdown last year where Saudi refused to raise the prices, damaging the economy of the other nations. At the time (and I'm not sure how true this is), it was said they were trying to price fracking companies out of the market (they're only financially viable at around $70 a barrel), but I'm not sure how true this is. I assume it's partly that, plus some falling demand and an attempt to gain market share in China (who tended to buy a lot from Russia).

Demand has fallen in China but Saudi is pumping like crazy to keep the price below ROI rates for marginal ventures. iirc lots of offshore projects need $80+ oil to break even.

tbh, I don't know that much about it either.

xp

A low oil price is a good thing for industries that are bulk buyers of oil, but there are others that are being shafted, in Scotland particularly there are jobs going right across the oil industry, which has a knock on effect on the wider economy.

Is there anything worth reading on what the Saudi endgame is here (and specifically how long they can keep this up for without building up massive deficits?)

the new 'competitive' price is low, other OPEC countries want saudis to sacrifice market share for a high or above-market-share price, letting non-OPEC countries increase their share. saudis aren't really driving the price down so much as not raising it above market value. if they can wait it out and demand goes back up, they've held onto their share

The price has more to do with supply than demand, doesn't it? Demand hasn't absolutely tanked - there's a glut with shale. When shale gets shut down as unsustainable, and supplies are used, the price will go up again irrespective of what happens with supply.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/rbs-forecast-doom-global-economy-2016

Follow-up. Consensus seems to be: not as gloomy as RBS. Just bad, sorta flat.

China seems to be tanking: "2% GDP Growth". There always seems to be a lot of fiddling from their end - and maybe most countries do it which is why sentiment and emotion mean something.

Economics = crazy magick.

Economics = people born into enough money to go to school to become professional economists in thrall to / justifying the pronouncements and whims of people born into enough money not to have to work at all

Well, there are economists and there are economists, that's a pretty weird blanket pronouncement to make.

Brexit issues are surely a bigger drag on the economy than anything else right now? By the time the referendum finally happens there will have been four years at least of profound uncertainty about the short-term make-up of the country, taking Scotland into account as well.

Economics = people born into enough money to go to school to become professional economists in thrall to / justifying the pronouncements and whims of people born into enough money not to have to work at all

― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, January 13, 2016 6:10 AM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this may have been sort of true in like, the 80s. not the case anymore

also it doesn't study more to major in economics?

i find it weird that the worst thing happening in the global economy right now is a negative second derivative. like, get back to me when something is actually decreasing

and specifically how long they can keep this up for without building up massive deficits?

on Newsnight the other night I believe they said the Sauds have approx 6-8 more months of cash reserves

also it doesn't study more to major in economics?

i find it weird that the worst thing happening in the global economy right now is a negative second derivative. like, get back to me when something is actually decreasing

― flopson, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

The number of jobs that pay a decent wage?

boom

on Newsnight the other night I believe they said the Sauds have approx 6-8 more months of cash reserves

That is... a considerably shorter period of time than I'd been expecting.

on Newsnight the other night I believe they said the Sauds have approx 6-8 more months of cash reserves

iirc it is thought to be five years at $50 a barrel so you could extrapolate from that. Their break-even point is higher than almost everyone else, i think.

They are raising money through different routes, though - hence the mooted Aramco IPO.

The number of jobs that pay a decent wage?

― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, January 13, 2016 12:06 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is certainly not the case globally. anyways the rich world has had low median wage growth for decades for mostly well-understood reasons, why would that suddenty cause a global crisis now?

Obviously that was a joke - but your post shows a lack of awareness of what might be happening to people. Talk of a 2nd derivative sounds delusional.

Whatever that is (yes I know I can google)

i find it weird that the worst thing happening in the global economy right now is a negative second derivative. like, get back to me when something is actually decreasing

― flopson, Wednesday, January 13, 2016 10:31 AM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Stocks-plunge-S-P-500-is-down-10-percent-from-6757200.php

"I find it weird that the worst thing happening is markets down ten percent. get back to me when you're wearing a burlap sack."

i guess that's for the u.s. thread, so here's the 3mo ftse too

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/chart?chart_primary_ticker=LSE:UKX&chart_time_period=3_month&canvas_colour=000000&primary_chart_colour=CC0000&use_transparency=0&plot_colour=ffffff&cp_line_colour=1F4F82&margin_left=35&margin_bottom=20&margin_right=20&time_24hr=1&tiny_chart=1&tiny_month_view=1&logo_strength=light&y_axis_left=1&x_axis_plain=1&cp_line=1&cp_line_style=dotline&charting_freq=1_minute&co_dimension%5Ewidth=203&co_dimension%5Eheight=152&small_chart_x_label_format=1&date_label_spacing=30

Bump

http://dvdmedia.ign.com/media/reviews/image/apes_damnyou.jpg

UBS is predicting £350bn wiped off the value of the FTSE today. Anything under £200bn would probably be a success.

but we've £351M a week we don't have to pay to brussels. we could pay that off in, er, 1000 weeks.

The FTSE dropped 531 points (8.something per cent) in the time it took me to walk 200 metres from Charing Cross to my office.

11.4%
https://twitter.com/FT/status/746243856165933056/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

i need to book a trip

FAP?

well sure

mi casa et su casa

in casa emergency break ice

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XK9doTm8CH8

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/866946/brexit-latest-updates-ons-data-wipes-490-billion-uk-wealth

Can someone please have a look at this post and thoroughly debunk it (or otherwise)? Pretty please. Yours, an economics idiot

http://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/comment/2994686/#Comment_2994686

Just looking at Wikipedia, the China-Australia deal took a decade, not 13 months, so that guy’s nuts

And the Walloons held firm against the EU-Canada agreement for a whole... two weeks, just looking at the google news headlines.

The old “throwing out easily disprovable ‘facts’ in a barrage because there’s no referee so just try and prove me wrong” school

guess the old 'we can be like singapore' line is p raving mad too

i dunno, a lot of Tories are into corporal punishment

I feel that in a normal year this type of thing might be bigger news.

BBC News - Interserve rescue plan prompts share collapse
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46505688

No mention of the half a million+ they paid their CEO in April. But at least the million shares they also gave her are now worth less so that's something?

shit-bin-manufacturing-relocating-to-eire

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/18/we-face-a-global-economic-crisis-and-no-one-knows-what-to-do-about-it

We know that an increase in the cost of borrowing in the UK, the eurozone and the US, which is what we are now witnessing, will do nothing to bring down prices.

Inflation is an affliction caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and to a lesser but important extent by China’s difficulties with Covid after its vaccine development failures, which have caused repeated lockdowns and holdups at ports. In the UK, Brexit adds a further big twist because it has damaged trade and cut the number of available workers.

The justification for higher interest rates, then, must lie elsewhere, and central banks, to justify their spasm of action, argue they must go ahead to avert a wages spiral – one where pay exceeds inflation.

In Britain, this argument presumes that the average worker, to prevent a fall in personal living standards, will be able to negotiate a pay deal that beats the Bank of England’s latest forecast for peak inflation later this year of 11%.

When the government is expected to limit public sector pay rises to between 0% and 3% this year, that means private sector increases would have to be even higher – about 12% or 13% on average. These levels of pay rise are a fiction.

Oof

I literally did not believe this when it was first explained to me, but the UK effectively puts housing prices in the CPI for student loan interest, so anyone with a student loan is levered synthetic short housing as well needing to rent. It's shocking their TFR isn't 0. https://t.co/Z6tkux9mQA

— Quantian (@quantian1) August 3, 2022

this thread is key reading imo:

The Bank of England’s going to increase interest rates today. It may be by 0.25%. It could be by 0.5%. But the question is, why are they choosing to increase the price of money when we already have an inflation problem? A thread to explain…..

— Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) August 4, 2022

it’s almost as if “cooling” (sunak) vs “stimulating” the economy (truss) is too simplistic a way to think about this quite grim challenge of profiteering, war and chronic underinvestment

Bump

negative growth in last 3 months blamed on... the extra bank holiday and not the fuckwittery of the truss government.

Christmas and a world cup in the next quarter though.

food inflation now running at 19%. not a typo.