the rolling non-presidential elections of 2008 thread

I'll wait til yer ready, prolly around Halloween: "We need 60 senators to stop President McCain!"

http://www.sewergator.com/images/simpgator.jpg

Is there a good central clearing-house type site for info on contested house/senate races?

I don't know one.

Que, Grandpa S is now too lazy a ref even for you

not with posts like your second one popping up all the time

"all the time"

There will be a fairly large number of Republicans retiring this year, compared to what is usual. Apparently, they don't have much of an appetite for being on the minority end of the stick. The biggest question of all is whether the Dems can put together a 60 seat majority (or working coalition) in the Senate. Too soon to tell much, yet.

Here in Oregon our lone republican senator, Gordon Smith, is somewhat vulnerable, depending on the spillover onto Smith of anger about Bush. Smith has tried to put a bit more distance between himself and Bush, but it may be too little, too late. Won't know much until the Dem primary and we see who's running against Smith.

Every single congressional representative in my state as well as Sen. Pryor is running unopposed this year.

So y'all enjoy voting for Congress for me.

42 Dem congressional candidates have signed a commitment "to back the 'Responsible Plan' movement to end the war in Iraq, guard against similarly wrongheaded wars, restore Constitutional principles and reform the media."

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=303650

http://www.responsibleplan.com/plan

old people

If it's not love
Then it's WWII veterans
That will bring us together

is 2008 the last ride for the VFW?

“There is an attitude that, ‘I better watch out for myself, because nobody else is going to do it,’” the member said. “There are all these different factions out there, everyone is sniping at each other, and we have no real plan. We have a lot of people fighting to be the captain of the lifeboat instead of everybody pulling together.”

...And in a closed-door session at the Capitol, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told members that the NRCC doesn’t have enough cash to “save them” in November if they don’t raise enough money or run strong campaigns themselves...

“The Republican loss in the special election for Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District last Saturday should be a sharp wake-up call for Republicans,” Gingrich wrote. “Either congressional Republicans are going to chart a bold course of real change or they are going to suffer decisive losses this November.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10138.html

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/193960.php

so who's gonna run for Vito's seat?

So yay Mississippi or something.

The NRCC pumped a shit ton of money into this big loss. Childers isn't what you'd call a liberal, but it's still a finger in the Repub eye.

I've heard $1.3M and even $2M as the Republican bill. Sounds like Childers campaign was mostly grassroots.

More on the money:

The $1.27 million that the NRCC spent in the heavily Republican district amounted to nearly 20 percent of the committee’s entire cash-on-hand. The committee has now spent more than $3 million to defend three conservative House seats, losing all three of them, and it is ill-equipped financially to compete fully in an ever-widening playing field for November.

20 percent! Good job, guys. Now if Fossella up and resigns...

Judging from the volume of direct-mail campaign crap and number of commercials I've seen for both sides, definitely. (xp) For every one piece of mail from the Childers campaign, there was one from the DNCC, one from the Davis campaign, and nine or ten attack pieces from the RNCC.

Interestingly, door-to-door canvassing doesn't happen in this town for state or national races. The only live campaigning to ever come to my doorstep has been for local candidates.

TPM: GOP's prospects for Congressional elections in November 2008

official email received today from the Dem running against Pat Robert here in Kansas:

In an effort to share the story of average Kansans, we need your testimonials on where Pat Roberts went wrong and how he let you and your family down. This is your chance to share your motivations. Getting our country back on the right track is going to take a lot of work and step number one here in Kansas is removing Pat Roberts from office.

Katie from Topeka tells us,
"Pat Roberts hasPat Roberts has done nothing to bring down the cost of presciption drugs"

John from Dodge City shared this,
"Pat Roberts...is an asshole"

and you wonder why Roberts is up +28

The 'fun with Vince Fossella's seat' race

Vito

Whoops, too true. Anyway.

were there any successful primary challenges to House incumbents?

Honestly, there are no opposed races where I live. We're not a solid red, but definitely pink. It's been no fun around here, democratically speaking.

Doesn't Ark. generally vote Dem at sub-presidential levels?

Yep - the Ark. delegation is 5-1 democrat, incl. 2 dem senators + a dem governor. the incumbent Dem senator is going uncontested, i believe.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/sneed/1172891,CST-NWS-SNEED19.article

kevin from the real world got beat

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/senate-polling-update-920.html

Although the Democrats have gained ground in a handful of key races, their chances of picking up a working, 60-seat majority in the 111th Congress have diminished.

Are there any sites for House race polling data? There's some zero-substance 20-something youth minister jerkwad running in this district who seems to be picking up speed and I'm wondering if maybe I should stay registered here after all.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/26/democrats_have_a_chance_at_60_senate_seats.html

This was predictable, I suppose, but it's remarkable to see how strong a relationship there is between today's failed vote on the bailout and the competitive nature of different House races.

Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211.

By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/swing-district-congressmen-doomed.html

Rasmussen's 9/30 poll has the Wicker-Musgrove Senate race (Miss.) narrowing to 2 pts, which is weird, because I haven't seen a single Musgrove ad this year, print or broadcast. Wicker is hammering away with almost 100% negative ads.

a lot of the contested races are trending Dem as people are paying more attention/due to the economy - 538 has raised the number of seats with greater than 50% chance of flipping to 7, and the chance of getting to 60 seats to 20% (doubled). and kos just got a poll showing Saxby up just 1 pt in GA.

Gay marriage = cocaine use. If you believe the one guy.

and the chance of getting to 60 seats to 20% (doubled).

Certainly more than my feeble mind could have imagined a year ago.

I wonder if Silver's status as the Bill James of politics will come sooner than James' status as the Bill James of baseball.

Speaking of which, Silver is on Colbert in a few minutes.

fox poll: who won the debate?

mccain 86%

obama 12%

undecided 1%

oh wrong thread

very good anti-Rossi feature from The Stranger for all the WA heads out there

http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/Content?oid=684699&c=hp

I'll wait til yer ready, prolly around Halloween: "We need 60 senators to stop President McCain!"

― Dr Morbius, Friday, March 21, 2008 1:50 PM (6 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

It's not Halloween yet, Kingfish. We still have time to panic.

wau this ad

The remarkable saga of Senator Norm Coleman's suits:

http://www.martinforsenate.com/features_jimfolks.jpg
hey guyz if anybody with a couple bucks who cares about good government wants to help us out down in georgia by getting rid of the max cleland-hating asshole saxby chambliss plz give $$$$ to jim martin who is currently polling 44-45 against

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/8/124643/431/442/624006

http://www.martinforsenate.com/home.html

This race still hasn't gotten national attention. Orange to Blue was designed for races just like this one, where a little money and buzz could go a long way toward helping a second-tier or third-tier campaign graduate to the big time. Saxby Chambliss has raised nearly $11 million, and still has over $4 million on hand. Jim Martin, as of the last report in July, had raised just a little over $1 million, and had just $56,237 on hand.

Guys, we can make a difference in this one. With little money, but with a lot of gumption, energy, and a truly progressive message, Jim Martin has closed to a dead-heat in this race. He is pro-choice, pro-gay rights (supports ENDA and LLEA), a consumer advocate, committed civil libertarian (with ACLU awards for his efforts), opposes FISA telecom immunity, opposes the war in Iraq, is a strong environmentalist, a strong labor guy, a strong supporter of affirmative action, and so on. He is also a Vietnam vet, so perhaps he's destined for a Chambliss Special, but we can get his back. This is the kind of Democrat we can't even get in some Blue states, yet running on an explicitly progressive agenda, has a chance to represent the great state of Georgia while ousting the odious Chambliss at the same time.

oregon, but pretty sure the dem will get that based on counties still coming in

is Alaska really 'undecided'? until clangy door slams on Ted?

margin is only 3-4000 with 40,000 absentee ballots to count

i thought ted had won pretty much

Merkley (D) takes Smith (R)'s seat in Oregon

ted had bigger early returns but, per usual, Anchorage was the last to weigh in. Now it's razor thin. Total toss up now

so the Arkansas measure that passed bans ALL UNMARRIEDS from adoption or foster parenting, not just sodomites. Take that, living-in-sinners.

Anchorage may be 40% of Alaska's population, but more than 60% of those absentee ballots would have to be pro-Begich in order for Begich to win, and that's highly unlikely for many reasons.

In the long run, a Stevens win may be "better" for Alaska Dems, since it will highly like throw Sarah "Throw Ted Under The Bus" Palin into that exciting political hockey rink up there in Juneau.

ARHGARHGARHGARHGARRRGHHG

volunteering at jim martin's office tomorrow

i have a couple friends going down to ga to help out

lol @ dude w women for obama sign

that's highly unlikely for many reasons

such as?

holy shit the voiceover in this ad

FUCK SAXBY CHAMBLISS WITH A GODDAMN BROOMSTICK

This channel must approve comments before posting. What a joke! This is indicative of a totalitarian society. If they don't believe in freedom of speech on You Tube why should you send any Republican to the Senate! P.S. I voted for Jim Martin last week and it felt so good!

lol pic at 0:15

fuck youuuuuu

aow8rueiojojiewkljfwegfwefqweafwqaef

lmao @ "qweaf"

Christian Bale as Batman is against Jim Martin!

Perriello beats Goode

http://images2.dailykos.com/images/user/1237/Cuckoo_clock.gif

nice gif

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=9_3T6q88QF4

last 10 seconds = "bad touch"

http://georgiaunfiltered.blogspot.com/2008/11/atlanta-rapper-ludacris-campaigning-for.html

go go jim martin

i voted jim martin today. he didnt have enough money to run as big of a smear campaign as saxby chambliss. but as far as dirty politics goes, this was dirtier than the presidential election.

that fucking son of a bitch. georgia, you suck at this

goddammit.

Worst human being in the Senate is really saying something, but I think he takes it.

FUSIYTF*&(EGTFGSD

jim martin isn't gone. i campaigned for this man. i met his wife. he will still have a role.

FUCK U SAXBY I AM NOT KIDDING

some douche on hannity & colmes just pronounced it "de-call-b"

fuck you hannity

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/12/jeb_bush_ponders_florida_senat.php

well fuck.

don't have any right to complain since i didn't help, but, sorry georgia.

but this does mean the recount up here is a little less pressing, in a way.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/12/chambliss_wins.html

^Martin loss may hurt Franken

Mel Martinez isn't seeking re-election.

i don't get that post at all. what difference does it make to the recount, except emotionally? the ballots are what they are regardless what happened in GA

58 or 59 is far better than I expected.

I'm really fucking pissed though mainly because Chambliss is a creepy horrible motherfucker.

(I said exactly the same on another thread, but it can't be said enough.)

things to watch
-chambliss grabbing his (grand?)daughter's chest
-the pure excitement when the family says 'happy thanksgiving'

do laws about equal time not apply in run-offs or something? i swear to god i saw 100 million more jim martin attack ads (as in, attacks on) up to today than vice versa.

58 or 59 is far better than I expected.

Yeah, me too.

I hope Saxby gets hit by a truck, though.

i thought this was the most odious, but it's hard to narrow it down

Or falls into a pit of grizzly bears at a zoo and is ripped apart. xp

I probably spend too much time on violent death scenarios for people I don't like. But still, hopefully the Candyman will get him.

meanwhile: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

OoOoOoOoOo...

When Franken wins the recount, we will have more proof that either
A) Republicans are so dumb they can't count
B) Republicans are lying cheats
C) Both A and B