2008 Kentucky Derby handicapping and bourbon thread

Top 3-year-olds by graded earnings as of 4/1:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/images/Derby134earnings4_01_08.jpg

War Pass -- 2yo champ won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in the slop last year but he shit the bed and finished last in the Tampa Derby last month as the 1-20 favorite. Needs to rebound big time in the Wood Memorial this weekend at Aqueduct (a race I'm going to for the first time this year).

http://www.courier-journal.com/blogs/trackside/uploaded_images/IMG_0724-704055.JPG

This time I think I'm going with Willett 6-year.

*we are going to this, we have good seats i guess? for our friend's big 50 b-day

* i've never bet on a horse race, i will need this thread

* my wife wants me to wear a seersucker suit to the derby, WTF

Big Brown -- jumped from a nobody to the likely Derby favorite after he ran huge last weekend in the Florida Derby: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnomqXMqBmY

Ky Derby will only be his fourth career start and horses that inexperienced can't usually get the job done in Louisville (Curlin came close last year). But he's the only 3yo so far to win a two-turn distance race with the type of triple-digit speed figure (106) that you usually need to win the big one. My take is he may be more like Bellamy Road, who won the Wood with a huge 121 speed figure a couple years ago but finished nowhere as the favorite at Churchill.

seersucker for the Derby is totally stylin' but you'll never have anywhere else to wear it

* my wife wants me to wear a seersucker suit to the derby, WTF

http://fotolog.miarroba.com/f/5/2/9/4231529/25.jpg

yeah i've been trying to tell her that it's a crazy idea, i will dress up though

where are your seats? I haven't been since 2003 (Funny Cide). I miss it ....

Pyro -- looked great going last to first in the Risen Star (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-Hp-hwLb00) and winning the Louisiana Derby (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TK52p8xww-o) but in retrospect he kinda beat a bunch of scrubs and his top Beyer as a 3yo is only a 95. His last race before the Derby will be in the Blue Grass next weekend at Keeneland.

seersucker for the Derby is totally stylin' but you'll never have anywhere else to wear it

Not true if you ever go to a wedding in the south.

not sure where our seats our exactly, our friend was visiting a few weeks ago and pointed on the map and i was like, woah holy shit. close to the finish line, sort of? LOL, i know nothing about horse racing.

sweet. yeah close to the finish line is good. 100 level seats are closest ot the track but it's hard to tell what's going on ... higher up like the 200 and 300 level you can see the backstretch and actually watch the race unfold. although if it's your first time watching a race you'll still probably be like "what the hell just happened" when it's over.

Mr. Que there are all kinds of places you can wear a seersucker suit!

I have actually been meaning to get one and I'm not even going to the Derby.

yeah i've watched plenty of races on tv and stuff--my wife is way into it--but i'm sure it's going to be different in the flesh. . .i'm pretty excited! i think we're pretty high up, maybe 300 or 400 is there is a 400. i will try and take pictures if i'm able to get my camera in my seersucker suit.

xpost yeah. . .i dunno, i'm just not feeling the seersucker, maybe i will at least try one on, i've got enough gray hair to pull it off i guess

Denis of Cork -- undefeated and has a good pedigree to run long but he's another one who doesn't have many career races, and his connections keep changing their plans (usually a bad sign). Didn't get in a prep race all last month, have to see what he does in the Illinois Derby this weekend.

wow dude 400 is some millionaire's row type shit. I sat in the 300s once, it was awesome.

Q, is she getting/wearing a hat for the occasion?

also MrQ you should start doing bourbon research now. Let me know if you need help.

yeah Laurel, totally, i think she has a hat that is suitable but this occassion may call for a new hat (and possible new suit). and yeah, our friend told us flat out that she was springing for this for her b-day and we were going and no questions asked. we're gonna have to get her something super nice in return, i have no idea what that will be.

bourbon

get her a bottle of the Willett 23-year rye, Velvet Glove bottling

http://www.andrewacomb.com/images/pappy_van_winkle_20_year.jpg

nectar of the gods

i guess we can get her bourbon but bourbon and something else would be a good idea, i'm sure these tickets were sick expensive.

If she's getting a new outfit/hat, you need to succumb to the seersucker. Take pics!

are you going to the track on Friday too (Kentucky Oaks)? or just Derby Day. Oaks draws a big crowd too but it's a little more chill.

i'm not sure? i will post more as i find out. or my wife will show up. .and post she may know. we're also going to the Louisville Slugger museum i think? and eating a lot.

Don't have much more to add on the 'capping for now. I don't know too much about the California horses this year, Georgie Boy was considered the best but he's hurt now. Gayego is either going in the Arkansas Derby or the Santa Anita Derby where Colonel John will probably be the favorite.

On the whole this doesn't seem to be a very deep year as far as talent. (Especially compared to last year when all three legs of the Triple Crown were won by three different top notch horses - Street Sense, Curlin, Rags to Riches.) Once you get past the top three or four this year there's not many who look great to me. But someone could bust out in the prep races the next couple of weekends.

i love an excuse for mint juleps!

Derby Watch top 25 for 4/4
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/watch/derbywatch_040408.pdf

comes out every week, probably the easiest way to keep up to speed all in one place

This quote from Thoroughbred Times makes me like Denis of Cork more. At least they are contending that there's a plan and didn't just skip the Rebel because he was hurt or something. Quick explanation of what they're talking about is that after a big race a horse will often "bounce" or run bad in his next race because of expending so much effort. But if you take more time between races you can try to "skip the bounce" and get on a better pattern to run a peak race in the Derby. Downside for betting is that it can be hard to separate a good-spacing, just-coming-into-peak-form type of horse from an ouchy, treating-with-kid-gloves type of horse because so many horses nowadays come into the Derby so lightly raced.

(And yeah I know no one probably gives a shit about this stuff but I like to talk abt it anyway why because I think it's intersting and it helps me figure out who I wanna bet on.)

Denis of Cork originally was slated for the Rebel, but his connections opted to wait for the 1 1/8-mile Illinois Derby.
Mark Reid, the racing manager for owner William and Suzanne Warren, consulted with Len Friedman, a partner with Ragozin Thoroughbred Data, in arriving at the decision to skip the Rebel with an eye toward the Kentucky Derby."
"He's put together a great, forward-moving pattern racing every six or so weeks, and so rather than squeeze an extra race in there and have him come back on short rest for the Derby, our thoughts were that he might do better staying closer to the pattern that is working so well right now," Reid said. "We've just found over the years that with too much they're barely there for the Derby, and then they're soon looking for exits. We're trying to be at our peak for the Derby while also having something left for the rest of the year."

Another one I'm interested in watching is Adriano -- seems like he will like the distance since his sire is A.P. Indy (1992 Belmont and Breeders' Cup Classic winner) and his dam is a daughter of Mr. Prospector. But he may not go to the Derby because his trainer thinks a dirt track isn't his best surface .... he's won on turf and on a synthetic track (Lane's End Stakes at Turfway) but flopped in his only dirt start in the Fountain of Youth in Florida. And his next start is slated for synthetic so I doubt they will change their minds. Still, if I was them I'd take the shot, there doesn't seem to be a whole lotta competition this year .....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_bdnr8SUdk

I need a new hat!!! My current hat is just a straw number that I wear to the races at the Spa (Saratoga Springs) every August; Derby will require a whole other level of hat. Not sure where I am going to procure said hat??? DC not exactly a millinery mecca. I am sure there are places in NYC and I would consider a Chinatown bus up there for just this purpose.

For those of you who have not met Mr. Que in person, let me assure you that he is one of the few people south of 70 that I think can actually look genuinely fantastic in seesucker. He's tall and thin with bushy eyebrows and patchy grey hair and a patrician manner. I will positively swoon if he dons seersucker!

http://bet-grand-national.com/images/eric-williams-kentucky-derby.jpg

whole other level of hat

srsly though there's a place in nyc a bunch of my friends have shopped at, can't remember what it's called, I'll post it if I find out. there really is no place in D.C.?? surprising.

And yeah I know no one probably gives a shit about this stuff but I like to talk abt it anyway why because I think it's intersting and it helps me figure out who I wanna bet on

nonsense--also,dmr what other places on the web should i read to get ready

The only places I can think of are in Georgetown and are too Georgetowny. I'd like something. . . whimsical. Asymmetric. With some sort of netting that gets in my face and interferes with my view.

But more importantly I need to start thinking seriously about who I'm throwing my support and my betting $$$ behind.

Oh and for the birthday girl, let's get her awesome bourbon and some gorgeous antique mint julep cups! And she and I did always joke that we were going to buy ourselves actual silk silks and wear them as pajamas.

what other places on the web should i read to get ready

http://www.drf.com/
derby watch (linked above), st3ve cr1st's blog, general news, clocker reports (week or so before the race)

http://www.bloodhorse.com/
haskin's derby dozen

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/sports/index/horseracing/
andrew beyer's column

oh yeah d@n 1llman's blog on DRF is pretty good too. the blogs are pretty hardcore inside baseball though. just reading the general news and derby watch on DRF is probably enough to get up to speed. (full disclosure - I work there)

also it's cool now that almost every recent race is on YouTube!

HOLY SHIT YOU WORK FOR DRF NO WAI!

ya rly! (on the news desk though, I'm not in the handicapping dept. or snything like that)

the irony is that I used to go to the Derby almost every year and now I always have to work :/ I think we're bailing on going to the Wood Memorial, even ... nyc weather for Saturday looks kinda nasty. probably just go to one of the restaurant otb's

if it really rains for the Wood it might make a War Pass victory more likely since he's proven on the slop ...

Do you ever go to the meet at Saratoga? I luvs it so much!

Hahah. dmr is the most Damon Runyon ILXor.

One of these years I will make it to the Kentucky Derby.

:-(

This thread makes me nostalgic for Louisville.

those who aren't working that day, I will be gambling & julepping at the PkSlope KY bar as usual (while the OTB across the street is still open).

Do you ever go to the meet at Saratoga? I luvs it so much!

went for the first time this past summer, lotta fun .... very different from Louisville during Derby Week though (crazy rush of energy vs. mellow summer Spa vibes)

usually make it out to Belmont two or three times a year

here's denis of cork's last race

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NBEccCeDiY

interested to see how he does tomorrow

thoughts:

Denis of Cork, ugh, fifth. mayyyyybe a longshot to get a piece in the Derby. disappointing.

War Pass got second, hope he runs in the Derby so I can bet against him. really doesn't want to go that far. And Tale of Ekati barely beat him, not nuts about him either.

Of all the winners today Colonel John out West looked most legit .... but if anything these races made me think Pyro might be winning the Derby ... pending what he does next week in the Blue Grass ...

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/watch/derbywatch_041108.pdf

Adriano will work out this weekend at Churchill to determine whether he'll go to the Derby or the Lexington Stakes .... interesting player in the Derby if he goes

quick update

War Pass - injured, not going
Pyro - flopped in the Blue Grass, maybe because it's run on a synthetic surface, who knows. but he has never really run a fast figure as a 3-year-old. not sure what to think of him, I need to watch the race (was on vacation).
Adriano - looks like he's going, I like him as a longshot possibility

it's looking like Big Brown will be a big favorite, probably followed by Colonel John. out of those two I like the Colonel ....

IT'S ON

1. Cool Coal Man, J.Leparoux, 20-1

2. Tale of Ekati, E.Coa, 15-1

3. Anak Nakal, R.Bejarano, 30-1

4. Court Vision, G.Gomez, 20-1

5. Eight Belles, G.Saez, 15-1

6. Z Fortune, R.Albarado, 15-1

7. Big Truck, J.Castellano, 50-1

8. Visionaire, J.Lezcano, 20-1

9. Pyro, S.Bridgmohan, 6-1

10. Colonel John, C. Nakatani, 4-1

11. Z Humor, R.Douglas, 30-1

12. Smooth Air, M.Cruz, 20-1

13. Bob Black Jack, R.Migliore, 20-1

14. Monba, R.Dominguez, 15-1

15. Adriano, E.Prado, 30-1

16. Denis of Cork, C.Borel, 20-1

17. Cowboy Cal, J.Velazquez, 20-1

18. Recapturetheglory, E.T.Baird, 20-1

19. Gayego, M.Smith, 15-1

20. Big Brown, K.Desormeaux, 3-1

lol @ post 20 for brownie, heckuva job

1, 2, 18, 19, & 20 were all available when they picked .... taking 20 is craziness imo

big brown's trainer has been talking a lotta smack, I kinda want to see him go down

"Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race," Dutrow said in a typical recent interview. "I'm training this horse for a horse race; I don't care what the name of it is. I feel he's the best horse in the race - I feel he's going to win the race. Anything else is going to be extremely disappointing to me.
"I know there's no one going into this race as good as he is right now. If he breaks clean, it's a mismatch to me on paper."

lol hubris

BB has run just 3 times?

reminder to Brooklynites, I shd be here 3:30 or so on:

http://brooklyn.citysearch.com/profile/41544222/brooklyn_ny/commonwealth.html

yeah this will be his fourth career race, same as Curlin last year -- who eventually turned out to be a monster but his inexperience caught up w/ him in the Derby ....

I'd say these are roughly my picks in order of preference:

DENIS OF CORK
ADRIANO
MONBA
Z HUMOR

all somewhat bombers and long prices ... I'll probably try to hook them up with some of the favorites (Col. John and to a lesser extent Big Brown, as a saver) in exactas and tris.

I've come back around on Denis since his Ill. Derby flop. I think that race just didn't set up for him and he ran pretty well, all in all, finishing fifth (unlike Pyro, who was 10th in the Blue Grass). I think Saturday might be the day the D.O.C. is gonna explode with a big race and I don't want to be off the bandwagon too early.

problem with Colonel John is he may end up being the outright favorite if people are scared off by BB's inexperience and post 20, and CJ has never run a race on dirt (only synthetics out in California) although he has trained well on it at Churchill

DRF handicapper consensus picked CJ by a pretty good margin over BB

I sort of liked Gayego for a while but his pedigree is not great for distance and I think post 19 might be too much for him

thanks dave! but you get no commission if I win. ;)

i'm in charge of bourbon acquisition for office juleps. what should i get? doesn't have to be great bourbon, obviously, just a reasonably-priced mixer.

I'm clueless on that ... but dmr, what of Pyro?

could go with Early Times, that's what they use at the track .... if you wanna go for authenticity (note: not very good bourbon)

Maker's would probably be fine, or Woodford or Jefferson Reserve if you wanna go a little better quality

what of Pyro?

I was all over him before the Blue Grass, his last prep, where he ran 10th. Before that he looked extremely impressive sweeping from far back to win his two Louisiana races but his speed figures were never very fast (strangely, nobody has very fast figures this year, except Big Brown and one or two others). The complicating factor is that the Blue Grass is now run on an artificial dirt surface called Polytrack and it was Pyro's first try on Poly, so that could account for his lackluster run. (Handicapping the Derby was hard enough when all the prep races were on dirt .... now, with synthetic surfaces in the mix, which some horses love much more than dirt and others can't handle, it's even more confusing).

Anyway if Pyro had been a little closer up I might like him better. He had an okay-not-great workout at Churchill this week. If you like him, just ignore the Blue Grass and bet him based on the other performances .... sometimes it pays to just think "hey he had an off day" ....

early times might be a little too authentic. (especially since i'll be drinking whatever's left after derby day, without the sugar syrup.) maker's it is.

I don't think you can go wrong with that pick

what time does the race run

officially 6:04, probably more like 6:15

Rainy out there today, Proud Spell just won the Kentucky Oaks by five lengths on a sloppy track

I think it's supposed to be dry by tomorrow afternoon though

these odds will change but here is the early betting #s on the Derby field

1. Cool Coal Man, 36-1

2. Tale of Ekati, 46-1

3. Anak Nakal, 57-1

4. Court Vision, 14-1

5. Eight Belles, 8-1

6. Z Fortune, 17-1

7. Big Truck, 20-1

8. Visionaire, 22-1

9. Pyro, 5-1

10. Colonel John, 4-1

11. Z Humor, 67-1

12. Smooth Air, 40-1

13. Bob Black Jack, 26-1

14. Monba, 29-1

15. Adriano, 23-1

16. Denis of Cork, 27-1

17. Cowboy Cal, 42-1

18. Recapturetheglory, 48-1

19. Gayego, 21-1

20. Big Brown, 7-2

It just dawned on me why I haven't really looked at this thread this year. First year my dad not driving me nuts with Derby opinions.

all right, my bets are down. go big Denis. the D.O.C. I also took Z Humor across the board since the price was so high.

cool

also picked up some Hudson Baby Bourbon for post-work imbibing (somewhat heretical --- it's not from Kentucky)

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/02/05/dining/20070205_asimov_190.jpg

KD in HD = +++

A horse called Gay Ego???

OK, Yum Brands + Kentucky Derby == abs. proof of mafia.

well I hit the first and third place horses in my tri

unfortunately they don't pay you for that

Big Brown looked impressive

"Eight Belles, the lone filly in the field, was euthanized after breaking both front ankles."
oh, that is sad

yeah it's fucked up :/

she ran great. finished 2nd.

RIP Eight Belles. Had her to show. :/

0 for $63

I think I'm done betting.

was this one of the worst years for horse names ever? i missed 'cool coal man' when they were introducing them but jesus they were awful

also rip eight belles that was a total fucking bummer

I'm sort of turned off of horse racing now. That horse ran until she broke her ankles?
It makes me queasy.
And, believe me, my grandfather trained horses, and my father took me to the track in America (Aqeduct and Belmont) and Scotland (Ayr) - I grew up around race tracks.
I have always loved it - but watching that horse die has changed my mind.

didn't they put up a sheet before they put her down?

luckily, we couldn't see anything to do with the filly from where we were. really fun but i don't know if i'd do it again. so many people. . .at first the races were every half an hour but as it got closer to race #10, they were once an hour. i brought a book and got sunburn on my hands.

i didn't collect but i bet less than 20 bucks. my wife made four bucks! still can't believe big brown won, but that horse can cook.

http://tinyurl.com/63gzbq

Aw, Mr. & Mrs. Que - I'm still glad you got to have Derby Day!

(And I didn't actually see her put down.) (NBC wisely chose to NOT show it.)But there were enough pictures...

"handicapping"