My Friends, Your 2008 United States Presidential (General) Election Thread

AP breaks down the battlegrounds...

Dem Pickup Opportunities - Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia
GOP Pickup Opportunities - Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Obama Wild-Cards - Georgia, North Carolina
Clinton Wild-Cards - Arkansas, West Virginia
GOP Wild-Cards - Washington, Maine, New Jersey, Delaware
Obama Longshots - Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana
Clinton Longshot - Kentucky
McCain Longshot - California

My friends, my friends, my friends, my friends.

shouldn't we have appended (part one)?

btw my predict: Hil race to the convention fucks up the party, O gets the nom, spends a couple months reuniting the party and in the process gets the country on his side, GE looks mad close but in the end O makes it happen

for reference: http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/

this year will get even uglier

def

for a second i thought that the starting of this thread meant hills had thrown in the towel. british obama lover does not like to be deceived like this.

Obama's going to walk it 'cause he's the best looking.

And tall, too.

i rather sleep with obama than hillary. smoother skin is wot duz it.

Nice suits, good haircut, slim, great smile. What a dish! Vs Hilary with the awful pant-suits and McCain with the gay jumpers. Well... he's a shoe-in, obvs.

2 months til gabbnerd starts 2012 speculation thread

we know you and Jon Tasini have got that shit locked, doc

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/191563.php

Thank you, Howard Dean

My Friends, is Texas maybe in play?

my prediction is that McCain wins whether Clinton concedes tomorrow or at the convention, and everybody is all bummed and wonders what happened when we all felt so good back in May

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=689AukWhqdk

God bless you Ian

http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/71473364.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF193875DCB1DD8387ABB70A8DA7CE01D52AAA40A659CEC4C8CB6

Will McCain restart shit with Russia?

my prediction is that McCain wins whether Clinton concedes tomorrow or at the convention, and everybody is all bummed and wonders what happened when we all felt so good back in May

Yup. No way to bring back Mitt Romney at this point, I suppose.

J0hn otm prob

FWIW, tho, HRC had no chance against McCain. Obama has a chance.

There is no way McCain will win, just looking at it electorally. You handwringers need to just quit it, this a Democrat year.

Wait what's the reason an aging racist warmonger who clings to the disastrous policies of an unpopular president and alienates half of his own party is going to take in it a walk again? I hate to sound naive, and I realize that the aging racist warmonger demographic is rather large in America, but Obama (even Clinton for that matter, really) gives me a little... uh, hope.

xp

TIME FOR WORK:

http://blogplatoon.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/05/clooney_obama.jpg

for reference - http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm

obama gonna take down that elephant thing hardcore damn!

yes, Obama can win without Ohio and Florida, if he gets Virginia, but he's gotta hold all the Kerry states (i.e. not lose anywhere in New England), and take IA or NM back

not lose anywhere in New England

or the mid-Atlantic

o plz obamas gonna pwn that weird old man so hard

responding to Hatch on the other thread

is Webb the guy if he helps in VA and appeal in the Alabama part of PA? we don't have to worry about losing the Senate.

oh wait, we've got another thread for that

Your 2008 Vice Presidential Candidate Speculation Thread

start a Cabinet speculation thread, Christ

or a deck-chairs-on-Titanic

sorry that the primaries are over, morbs

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/07/mccain.conservatives/index.html

McCain promises to fight "evil"

How will age affect the race? FWIW, I looked up age cohorts by state, and found the following (2000 data). Against national percentages of 39.8 and 12.4 for the 18-44 and over-64 demographics (diff of 27.4), these are the states at the age extremes:

Youngest States
Alaska - 41.6, 5.7 (35.9 diff)
Utah - 42.3, 8.5 (33.8 diff)
Georgia - 42.6, 9.6 (33 diff)
Colorado - 42.6, 9.7 (32.9 diff)
Texas - 41.6, 9.9 (31.7 diff)
Virginia - 41.2, 11.2 (30 diff)
Nevada - 40.5, 11 (29.5 diff)
North Carolina - 41.1, 12 (29.1 diff)
Washington - 40.3, 11.2 (29.1 diff)

Note how the list has both major states the Obama campaign talks about swinging (Colorado, Virginia), what seems to be a solid blue state that has given Clinton trouble (Washington), and Obama reach states out of Clinton's grasp (North Carolina, Georgia).

Oldest States
Florida - 36.9, 17.6 (19.3 diff)
West Virginia - 37.2, 15.3 (21.9 diff)
Pennsylvania - 37.5, 15.6 (21.9 diff)
Maine - 37.2, 14.4 (22.8 diff)
Iowa - 37.8, 14.9 (22.9 diff)
South Dakota - 37.6, 14.3 (23.3 diff)
Arkansas - 37.9, 14 (23.9 diff)
North Dakota - 38.6, 14.7 (23.9 diff)

Note how the list contains notable states the Clinton campaign would try to swing (Florida, Arkansas), what seems to be a solid blue state that has given Obama trouble (Pennsylvania), and a Clinton reach state out of Obama's grasp (West Virginia).

Not to be determinist or anything.

James Pinkerton surprisingly confident about McCain's chances against Obama in the General Election. He says:

• Obama will be perceived as a “Skinny Al Sharpton”
• Obama is an affiliate of Bill Ayers, a member of the violent Weather Underground
• Obama’s affiliation with Rev. Wright won’t go away and will greatly damage him
• “The left basically can’t conceive that people would vote on their moral, political, patriotic assumptions, at the expense of their economic conditions or . . . [at the expense] of what might happen to the polar bears and penguins. And so their top ranks are endlessly mystified and infuriated as to how this happens. And they conclude that religion and culture and tradition and Rush Limbaugh have bamboozled people into voting against their proper class interests. And the Obama campaign epitomizes that analysis and it will lead to a comeuppance in November.”

Based on this, and the issues (mentioned elsewhere in the segment) about Obama’s personal affiliations – that will, according to Pinkerton, be on the voter’s minds, even if they aren’t on Democrats’ minds – will sink Obama. In all, as you might expect (given his party affiliation), Pinkerton believes that Obama will lose 40 states, and the GE.

I don’t think he’s right. But there’s something to his analysis, especially the last bullet point, for some over-confident Democrats to carefully consider.

I think it's all bullshit, Republican policy is pretty far from 'proper class interests.'

Near the top of this thread is a list of "GOP pickup opportunities" that includes Oregon. I'd say that is one very highly remote opportunity. Oregon will not swing to McCain in 2008.

Oregon voted for Kerry over Bush in 2004 by a comfortable margin and in 2008 new Democratic registrations have been soaring while Republican registrations have been noticably declining. No easy pickings for McCain here.

Near the top of this thread is a list of "GOP pickup opportunities" that includes Oregon. I'd say that is one very highly remote opportunity. Oregon will not swing to McCain in 2008.

polls consistently show Obama beating McCain there, but many have suggested Hillary could lose it

http://www.pollster.com/08-OR-Pres-GE-MvC.php

o plz obamas gonna pwn that weird old man so hard

it's when people talk like this that I feel most certain we'll be enjoying President McCain come '09

OTM. It reminds me of how confident some Democrats were in 2004, right up to election day. Come that night, there was shock and disbelief, and posts like this (from liberal blogger and a v. smart Law Prof. who calls himself Publius):

I'm going to bed. Maybe I'll be surprised. Maybe these magical provisional ballots will win Ohio. I don't know. Here's what I do know. Bush is up 130K in Ohio with 80% of precincts reporting. I suspect the networks will call it soon. Bush will win.

I have little to say. The things I want to say are things that I will inevitably regret saying. So I won't say them. Obviously, this is devastating. And no, I don't take much solace in the fact that Iraq and our economy will be so screwed up that the Dems will really win big time in 2008.

I'm not sure when I'll post again. I need time to gather my thoughts. Again, anything I say right now I will certainly come to regret. I will say this - I'm not so much angry as I am sad. I'm sad for the world. I'm sad for our environment that is about to be raped for four more years. I'm sad about the implications that rewarding such political behavior will have on the future of American politics. I'm sad about everything. I'm also just stunned. It's hard to be a political commentator when you can't even comprehend 52% of your countrymen. I honestly don't understand them. I don't understand why people support this man, this administration, and this record. It seems so foreign to me. I suppose this guy was more right than I realized (from the Suskind article):

___________________________________________

And for those who don't get it? That was explained to me in late 2002 by Mark McKinnon, a longtime senior media adviser to Bush, who now runs his own consulting firm and helps the president. He started by challenging me. ''You think he's an idiot, don't you?'' I said, no, I didn't. ''No, you do, all of you do, up and down the West Coast, the East Coast, a few blocks in southern Manhattan called Wall Street. Let me clue you in. We don't care. You see, you're outnumbered 2 to 1 by folks in the big, wide middle of America, busy working people who don't read The New York Times or Washington Post or The L.A. Times. And you know what they like? They like the way he walks and the way he points, the way he exudes confidence. They have faith in him. And when you attack him for his malaprops, his jumbled syntax, it's good for us. Because you know what those folks don't like? They don't like you!'' In this instance, the final ''you,'' of course, meant the entire reality-based community.

Let's hope his prediction -- that "Iraq and our economy will be so screwed up that the Dems will really win big time in 2008" -- is right (he was certainly right on the facts; Iraq/economy are screwed-up).

it's cool guys, jhøshea isn't running Obama's campaign.

One of the criticisms in George F. Will's otherwise mostly favorable review of Perlstein's Nixonland is that Perlstein doesn't take conservative ideas seriously:

"Having cast the Nixon story as a psychodrama, Perlstein has no need to engage the ideas that were crucial to conservatism's remarkably idea-driven ascendancy, ideas like the perils of identity politics and the justice of market allocations of wealth and opportunity."

"Perlstein says Nixon's legacy is the 'notion that there are two kinds of Americans.' On one side of the barricades are 'values voters' and other conservatives who are infuriated by the disdain of amoral elites conservatives consider (in the brilliantly ironic phrase that Perlstein appropriated from Kevin Phillips) a 'toryhood of change' determined to supervise their lives. On the other side are Hofstadterian liberals who feel threatened by these nincompoops who have been made paranoid by their status anxieties."

On the front page of the Times today, there was an article about how Obama courted many different interest groups to create the appearance of unity and to gain a foothold in Chicago politics. The article suggests that he's basically a pragmatist and that it's hard to pin him down to any substantive policy position. People who have known him in politics say that it is hard to say what his core beliefs are.

Maybe it's disingenuous or pointless to ask a politician to profess his true beliefs. It's sort of like asking someone if he loves you when the answer to the question has consequences.

Identity politics recognizes that different groups have different interests, but I don't think it necessarily implies a lack of social cohesion if the groups share fundamental values and have at least some common interests and if there is a well-established infrastructure for social, political, and civic engagement so that groups do not splinter off endlessly but can engage which each other and form alliances.

I'm wondering if the differences in Clinton's and Obama's health care proposals can be attributed to Obama's tendency to leave more things to the market. My hunch is that Obama is closer to Bill Clinton on economic policy, although he also seems to support broader social programs than Hillary Clinton.

god this is horrible i get sick i can't even think about this they are going to fucking win i can feel it in my gut this feels like a minnesota vikings game where we're ahead on the 4th but then you feel something slipping...like the air changes and fuck it's like you know you are done, then they fumble and the other team recovers and all of a sudden the momentum is totally shifted and seriously people are going to elect this corrupt old fool and that vacant chick and it's like the way the media spins this shit there's no amount of awesome stuff obama can even say because the whole dialogue is rigged anyway fuck man...like and if we can't even win THIS election like what are the chances that we'll EVER win a fucking election ever again, being totally serious....and then what, like it's not even easy to move to another country and i don't really want to and i usually don't even post in these threads but i saw the cover of the new newsweek this morning, i hadn't read it yet but it was called "palintology" and that dumb ass was on the cover with a fucking COCKED SHOTGUN for fuck's sake.....seriously? that's what we're gonna show the world too.....and everyone knows i'm a fucking USAUSAUSA a-hole on the board anyway but this is FUCKED....i'm from a small town...seriously small town politicians are the WORST like 100 times worse than washington assholes. cuz they are small minded and dumb to boot and the only reason they aren't as corrupt and vain is that they have no real power but give it to them an SEE WHAT HAPPENS, i swear to fuckin' god.

Matt, Newsweek is going. to. town. on Palin, read what's behind the inflammatory cover.

From my OCD-style refreshment of various stuff in the Down Times I can tell that O&Co unleash the batz after commemorative 9/11 shenanigans day.

Yeah, also re small town despots a la Boss Hogg it's hard to explain to normal suburban types (possibly even more so than a ward resident in an urban area) that maaaaybe in Wasilla nobody calls out the Governor because she's vindictive and knows where they all live. My mom found the idea in-con-ceiv-a-ble.

yeah my impression is that Obama now has a chance to strike and change the game. We will see if he does it. It will have to be funnier and easier to understand than whatever bullshit McCain is throwing that day. This is doable. Will Obama do it? If not, then yeah, this is at best going to be a nail-biter, and Obama won't be the politician we hoped he'd be (I still think he'd be a great president, but campaigning ≠ governing).

M@tt DON'T PANIC

Anyone who lived in Hastings under the Reign of Stoffel will know that Suzy is OTM re: small-town politicians having enormous capability for asshatdom.

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1840388,00.html?imw=Y

remember how Obama jus had a major policy speech on education? No? I do remember that he said something about a pig and sarah palin

Deej, you're suffering from False Memory Syndrome. Obama always discusses policy over personalities.

They're going to go with 'dishonour' as a meme and really ram it home.

Also I read this morn that Cindy's appetite for Flintstones Chewables is coming back for another round of play because of FDA-linked coverups.

Klein drives me up a wall sometimes, but that column is good.

remember how Obama jus had a major policy speech on education? No? I do remember that he said something about a pig and sarah palin

So stop talking about the pig in lipstick comment and start talking about his policy speech ffs

IT'S NOT THAT HARD

xpost same here rocky

I think it's much more likely she called Obama "Sambo" than it is that she covered up her daughter's secret pregnancy.

in a vacuum, so do i (tho is 'sambo' really a recognized term in Alaska?), but i think the evidence for the latter is much stronger than that for the former

lol at the new thread having such an untouchably awful title

and if we can't even win THIS election like what are the chances that we'll EVER win a fucking election ever again, being totally serious....and then what, like it's not even easy to move to another country

Not this again.

(sorry Ed)

umadnebb, ladies and gents

go back to britishes

lol at the new thread having such an untouchably awful title

Ladies and genitalmen, I have actually found common ground with Dr. Morbius.

I think it's much more likely she called Obama "Sambo" than it is that she covered up her daughter's secret pregnancy.

also, supplies

Suzy is always optimistic about politics. I seem to remember her suggesting, in late 2004, that Kerry was secretly working to have the result overturned.

His story of a boy whose father came from Kenya and mother from Kansas takes place in an America not yet mythologized, a country that is struggling to be born — a multiracial country whose greatest cultural and economic strength is its diversity.

this is complete, unmitigated, totally ahistorical BULLSHIT

America has ALWAYS been a miscegenated, diverse country

tho is 'sambo' really a recognized term in Alaska

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

MISCGNATED? YO PROPS one of the most horrible uses of Latin to make a word in English, ever.

I must have been stoned at the time, PF.

The child was borne by Mooseolini. Whether or not she wanted a live birth is a different matter; people with difficult or specialist pregnancies tend to stay grounded in the last trimester for the sake of the baby. Besides, the children were not told before the birth that the baby would be born with Down's.

see, so angry at the word could not spell it.

suzy I was ref'ing the columnists use of the term, if that wasn't clear.

Barack Obama could not exist in the small-town America that Reagan fantasized. He's the product of what used to be called miscegenation

guy refs Jefferson and then implies that miscegenation was not possible pre-Reagan wtf ever

So stop talking about the pig in lipstick comment and start talking about his policy speech ffs

IT'S NOT THAT HARD

― lol (HI DERE), Thursday, September 11, 2008 10:26 AM (9 minutes ago) Bookmark Permalink

lol next time they use me as a panelist on msnbc ill try to remember this

calling palin "mooseolini" is pretty lmao actually

sarah mooseolini the book burner

Is Palin big in Blue Earth, M@tt?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v134/tracerhand/igotthis.jpg

I think identity politics has probably attracted/repelled most of those it's going to (for both sides), so it's better now to leave it behind. Obama (and those arguing for his presidency) should ignore this and nail a few simple criticisms of McCain into the media, on the economy and on McCain's recklessness. I hope that face-to-face with Bill a few days ago helped with this.

don't mean to derail the thread or anything but the casual ceding of history to conservative narratives ("oh yes the country really WAS totally white and built by gun-toting, right-wing fundamentalist Christian capitalists once upon a time") REALLY REALLY pisses me off. Not just because it is demonstrably false but because it helps to validate present-day right-wing nutjobs POVs.

x-post

who thinks O got that the band was playing "Yes We Can Can" on Letterman?

have you been to Alaska, Que? tell me more of this exotic, foreign land, its strange pastimes, its antiquated hairstyles

I have yet to see Letterman but I expect my weekly media wrap-up from Mommie Dearest. If she criticizes Letterman I know Obama did OK. Her universe may have imploded with O v Billo.

who thinks O got that the band was playing "Yes We Can Can" on Letterman?

the Lee Dorsey song?!? that is teh awesome

Is Palin big in Blue Earth, M@tt?

― Hubie Brown, Thursday, September 11, 2008 3:38 PM (13 minutes ago) Bookmark Permalink

don't know haven't been home in a couple of months but southern MN generally went through an old farm/dfl labor to solid republican swing in the 90s like everywhere did....

...my gut says she plays big there but who knows?

another thing about small town politicians is that usually a lot of smart ppl don't want the job cuz it's a huge hassle and pays like shit, like a "part time" job in the budget but it's huge big clusterfuck irl

Indeed most awesome, should be a campaign song.

Zpost

yah totally

and the band went out with Chocolate City

lolz - Shaeffer's always been a P-Funk nut

America has ALWAYS been a miscegenated, diverse country

Yeah, but I think the point of the article is that we were in pretty deep denial about that reality for the first 200 years or so, whereas now a lot of that sort of stuff is more out in the open thanks to TV, the civil rights movement, etc.

shakes i think he was just saying that "diverse" america is an america that remains unmythologized by a majority of the population

yeah whose fault is that I wonder

somebody lock this thread

2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1