Jean-Marie Le Pen in Runoff for French Presidency

How likely is Le Pen to win then?

There's your voter apathy for you. Hm. What does it say for united Europe?

Voter apathy, eh? Turn-out was 72% of the eligible population...very low for France, yet a good sight better than it's been in this country for decades.

It'll be interesting to see what Bush does with this, if anything at all.

Interesting! The impression I had gotten from the BBC reports was that apathy was the rule, so clearly they have much different perceptions of said apathy than we do there. Bless their hearts.

I think apathy is no longer the right word. I think what we're seeing all over the world is total indifference to politics on the part of the majority -- perhaps because politics is seen as ineffective or just the executive wing of business -- combined with passive (and/or active) aggression on the part of extreme groups. This is a deadly cocktail. What's more, the left is divided (Nader loses the US election for Gore, the revolutionary socialists -- with 14% to his 16% -- lose it for Jospin), whereas the right, and the extra-political 'politicians' like Bin Laden, are not.

This French election was seen as stultifyingly boring until Le Pen stormed in. Now it gets feverish coverage, ILE topic headers, etc. This too, and our consideration of it as something worth discussing only when it goes horribly wrong, is symptomatic of our disenchantment with the democratic process. Our attention spans just aren't made for the appreciation of long, slow progress, like the achievements of the Jospin government over the last five years. We need September 11ths and Reichstag fires before we pay any attention whatsoever.

And meanwhile the agenda is set by Osama, by Le Pen, by the man who gunned down town hall officials in the Paris suburbs a couple of weeks ago, by the man who flew his plane (deliberately?) into the Piedmontese government offices last week.... We deserve, and will certainly get, more of these atrocities, because it's clear that our latent passive aggression is much stronger than our belief in anything as dull as rationality and progress.

There has been a nostalgia for facism in italy of lately, in holland the facist wins seats, in france he makes it 50 years , is the human mindsets view of history only 50 years ?

I think you're mistaking one potential part of the equation, Momus, namely that local politics can be seen as more important than national -- this at least has been the case here in OC, due to a variety of city and county issues. I'm not saying those issues are resolved in a way I'd like to see, frankly, but they do engage more attention from people here in many ways than larger government debates and considerations.

Momus, what has Jospin's government accomplished? I vaguely remember him winning 5 years ago, after Chirac called a quick surprise election, and supposedly the French were expecting big things from him (like reducing unemployment). I'm really curious as to how he could do so poorly in this election.

Don't forget crime, which I seem to remember exploding at fantastic rates lately.

LO is more an SPD than a KPD -- even if it stays left & call for no vote in the 2nd round its voters (largely anti-J protest a la Nader anti-demo protest) will vote Chirac anyway. Howevah -- it DOES point to highly important left-right polarization in france.

I want to see people try and explain this result without citing a) Europe's crapness and b) the 'justifiable anger of the sidelined post- industrial working class' etc. Sometimes I can understand the Julie Burchill view, i.e. the 'working classes' are tired of being told what's good for them and misled and dismissed 'for the right reasons', but then, they're stuck in dying, corrupt, parochial, insular, backward-looking, territorial, resentful and confused Europe so they're going to pick stupider solutions obviously. Can somebody PLEASE tell me why the EU is a good idea? Flame if you must, I'm here to learn

By 'Europe's crapness' I mean...oh fuck it, if you're going to flame go for it sensitive souls

Ned, you may be right about local politics becoming more important. According to the Guardian, 'a poll this weekend showed nearly 60% of French voters think that the parliamentary elections on June 9 and 16 are far more important than the presidential polls.' The article goes on to say 'If voters pick Mr Chirac and then - for security - give him a leftwing parliament in June, France could soon find itself in constitutional crisis. "We'd really be forced, at that stage, to ask whether we want a sixth republic," Mr Perrineau said.'

Okay, so the presidency may be pretty symbolic these days. But even as a symbol, a fascist at the gates of the Elysee Palace is a pretty scary one.

Ned, what's OC?

I don't know anybody who deserves any atrocities.

Orange County

I>I think apathy is no longer the right word. I think what we're seeing all over the world is total indifference to politics on the part of the majority -- perhaps because politics is seen as ineffective or just the executive wing of business -- combined with passive (and/or active) aggression on the part of extreme groups. This is a deadly cocktail.

‘Deadly’ is the right word. Young people in particular seem increasingly disconnected with politics. Few bother to vote. The most successful politician to attract younger voters here in the Netherlands is a charismatic (and dangerous) far-right populist who knows how to play the media game and play the race card.

I want to see people try and explain this result without citing a) Europe's crapness and b) the 'justifiable anger of the sidelined post- industrial working class' etc

Le Pen taps into an authoritarian neo-fascist vein that runs deep in right-wing France (c/w Action Françoise, Charles Maurass etc) that attracted significant support in the ‘30s only Le Pen doesn’t campaign for dictatorial Catholic monarchism but rather plays into fears over crime, immigration, France losing its identity within the EU etc. His Dutch equivalent attracts support largely from young people and disaffected right-wing middle-classes rather than the ‘post-industrial working class’, who are more likely not to vote, or vote for the far-left.

Well at least politicians who can live up to the preconceptions of the majority of people are finally being elected. Things have been being painted black and white for so long, perhaps now they're becoming a little more like that.

All in all, I am unsurprised. There had been plenty of warning in the last week or so that voters were deserting the main parties in droves, and that a fair proportion of these were planning to go for fringe candidates in the first round instead of abstaining/spoiling their ballot.

Stevo is OTM; the additional factor in France this time round was that the two main candidates (a) took the voters for granted - Jospin in particular, and (b) both tried to act more nationalist (or at least no less nationalist) and tough on crime than the other.

When I was in Tuscany we went into a petrol station and the man had pictures of Mussolini behind the counter. That was a bit rubb. Also, the village café has wine bottles with him on. Italians are nut

It's also another fuck-up for market research, whose inability to get ppl in electoral situations to tell the truth (and, you know, why should they - it's a secret ballot, a private compact between your conscience and your hoped-for future government) added to the "god what a boring election" coverage which, if it was as prevalent inside France as well as outside, undoubtedly contributed to Le Pen's protest vote - if you're constantly being told, by polls and editorially, that the election is sewn up, you're more likely to either not bother or to give your vote to an extremist candidate to 'send a message'.

I'm not that convinced by that line of argument Tom (though its pretty much one I used form My GCSE oral communication unit). If people have been lying to the researchers then that is good enough for there to be a Le Pen swing because most likely that is who they are going to lie about not voting for. "Boring election spurs people into voting" is not a headline which I think I'll see in my lifetime.

Yeah it's more that it would have caused ppl to not vote more than it would have caused ppl to switch, agreed, but I still think it would have caused a few switchers.

The Times on Saturday had predictions along these lines (based on exit polls). Chirac 20% Jospin 17% Le Pen 15% A Marxist 10%. That's close enough.

Also please to note that Le Pen more = Buchannan than Hitler. Key difference = lack or presence of organized brownshirts.

Sterling, Le Pen did have brownshirts, a personal elite of bodyguards who sparked a legal controversy a few years back when they assaulted a leftwing female politician.

By the way, am I the only one who sees parallels between Le Pen's slogans about 'France for the French' and Billy Bragg's campaign to 'reclaim' English patriotism from the right?

Le Pen reinvents Joan of Arc, Bragg reclaims St. George. Le Pen protects the metalworkers, Bragg glorifies footballers. Le Pen has camembert, Bragg has Marmite. Le Pen wants to repatriate immigrants, Bragg wants to integrate them.

There are differences of emphasis, but they're speaking, it seems to me, the same language. In contrast, can we imagine anything more unlikely than a US politician campaigning on the slogan 'America for Americans' or even 'Let's redefine what it means to be an American'?

Le Pen wants to repatriate immigrants, Bragg wants to integrate them.

Momus these two things are rather different.

Of course, Tom. But I'm saying that the ethnic and nationalist obsessions of European 'politicians' like Bragg and Le Pen shade into each other when compared to the political rhetoric of the States.

Or is 'unilateralism' in current US politics the same as what we refer to in Europe as 'Fortress Europe'? And why is Europe now seeing this splintering into smaller and smaller identities (Little Frenchers, Little Englanders) as a response to globalism, whereas the US feels no need to redefine itself? Is it because globalism is Little Americanism writ large? In other words, global processes give everyone an identity crisis except the Americans, because the US is the archetypal global society already, and inscribes globalist values in all its symbols (the statue of Liberty, etc).

(The first person who reminds me that the Statue of Liberty was made in France gets a private interview with Le Pen's goon squad.)

"Give me your poor, your tired, your huddled masses yearning to be free, send these to me, your tempest tossed, I lift my lamp before the golden door"

Le Pen's version: '...I'll slam the golden door in their face'.

well yeah but cf also wild panic ovah permeability of mexican border (or threat of spanish as main language)

over the last 24 hours i have heard a dozen (UK and French) politicians of extremely different (and mutually incompatible) politics saying, in response to Le Pen, "See! I was right all along!!"

Does BB really want to group English identity round Marmite and footballers => if so, the danger of a cultural monolith developing is slim indeed. Marmite explicitly sells itself in the UK on the strength of its hata faction being as real as its fan-realm.

Not quite irrelevant question: does anyone put up threads on J'aime Tous which announce "Merde, mais j'haïs le Camembert?" [french grammar under advisement]

Times like this I'm glad to be a Canadian, everybody who even mentions anything to do with 'identity' and 'national culture' etc. (for good OR ill, same difference) just seems to be twittering gibberish to me, as I don't actually KNOW what those things are. Grow up world!

Quebec?

You overlook the heated Newfie separatist debate, Pete.

sufferin jesus, maybe Ned was kidding but Newfoundland was hactually the last province to enter confederation (in 1949!) and there has always been a strong sense of seperateness from the mainland both geographic (obv.) and culturally - and even some real (though larfable) east coast seperatist movements over the years. Dave Q's just from out west where they got no hidentity. (wink.)

Well, at least I didn't buy one of those 'Republic of Western Canada' baseball caps - are those still selling like subsidised timber?

The BNP have chosen to celebrate St George’s day by raising dozens of English flags across Oldham in the knowledge the Lib-Dem controlled council will take them down, allowing themselves to portray the local authority as ‘anti-English’ in the run-up to the local elections.

On the first trip back to England last week I couldn’t help but notice the amount of young people wearing English flags and slogans (much of it football related, but not all).

I’ve always been wary of Bragg and his reclaim the English identity for the left (viewing nationalism as pestilence) but given the potency and appeal of national symbolism and identity, and the loosening of relations within the ‘British’ Isles I think he’s got a point. Why should the right have a monopoly on Englishness?

Where I struggle with Momus’s views on European identity fragmenting in response to ‘globalism’ is that

a) The far right are gaining support based on hostility to (predominantly Islamic immigrants) rather than wariness of the US- dominated mondialism

b) IMHO globalism isn’t Little Americanism writ large, but a far more subtle network of power relationships: "a decentred and deterritorialising apparatus of rule that progressively incorporates the entire global realm within its open, expanding frontiers" Hardt + Negri in ‘Empire’.

maybe Ned was kidding

I would *never* kid. But I am amused that my half-remembered knowledge of Newfoundland ignoring the rest of Canada has a semi-continuing impact.

Do they still have a separate time slot for all Newfoundland transmissions on CBC? That used to rankle the islanders more than I ever believed possible.

I like it when Dave asks questions about Canada - it's like a kid writing home from summer camp. Hello Muddah Hello Faddah, here I am in Socialist Britannia. But as you should know, Q, the answer to any question about Canada beginning with "Is there still..." is "Yes." Nothing changes.

Well, it's SOME kind of camp, that's for sure. Like the kind of 'camps' they have in Macedonia or Chechnya!

Why are Nationalists always described as 'rightwing'?

I joined the BNP last year but have always regarded myself as being on the 'left' of the political spectrum.

Just curious..

Bugger. Bloody trolls.

I joined the BNP last year but have always regarded myself as being on the 'left' of the political spectrum.

That was Mussolini's viewpoint. And Quisling too...

Well that's a thorny one. Hitler called himself a national Socialist and was socialist in much the same way as Stalin was, (i.e. he wasn't). One of the basic tenets of socialism is the equality of all human beings and a goal of socialism is the dissolution of nation states, being tools of divide and rule oppression of a political and economic oligarchy. Nationalism would seem to be diametrically opposed to this.

"Merde, mais j'haïs le Camembert?" -- mark where did this come from?