ROLAND GARROS 2009

Because the qualifying draws are out - men's, women's, I'll have intermittent internet access until the weekend and there's already plenty to talk about.

- COQUET! Richard Gasquet has done a Hingis and been busted for coke. In Miami. Somehow, given who it is, this isn't at all surprising. And guess whos' rushed to his defence? Anyway, he won't be at RG, which at least saves him having to find yet another way to wuss out of the home pressure.
- The TRIVALRY has continued to bring the goods in the clay season - Djokovic played an amazing match against Nadal in Madrid last week, really one of the best I've seen, and held match points against him, but couldn't close him out; but Federer beat Nadal in the final for the first time in the last 5 goes. It felt almost like a tag-team effort - I remember when the Williamses and Davenport seemed to do that to Hingis. She'd be able to beat one, but it would take so much out of her that she'd lose to the next. Maybe that's how Nadal will finally lose at RG?
- Serena/Safina catfight! Well, not as bitchy as some of the ones we've known in the past, but when Safina ascended to No 1 a few weeks ago, Serena immediately ran her mouth about how she's the best, everyone knows who the real No 1 is. Which is true, but she doesn't really have an excuse to whine about it given that her refusal to play a proper schedule is the only reason Safina got there in the first place. Anyway, it inevitably came back to bite her: Safina immediately won the two big back-to-back clay warm-ups, while Serena lost three opening rounds in a row and hasn't won so much as a match since March. Right now, Serena holds two Slams but no other titles, while Safina holds five big tournaments - a Slamless No 1 is never ideal, but it's not all that clear-cut.

Also, who saw the Graf/Clijsters exo at Wimbledon on Sunday? Really enjoyed it - a women's match with ACTUAL DECENT SLICES OMG - it was better than most WTA matches this year. I miss Stefanie, she obviously couldn't hack week-in-week-out tournament play but I'm pretty sure she could still beat over half the top 100 on grass. I don't miss Kim at all but she's coming back this summer anyway, and will probably promptly win the US Open, sigh.

Serena lost three opening rounds in a row

Supposedly because she's injured and she's being "forced" to play these events though unfit to avoid $75k in fines? Which is actually a complete (deliberate?) misinterpretation of the WTA rules, as far as I can make out, which require her to turn up to events to which she has committed (do a bit of press, etc) but not actually play if she's unable to. Very odd.

Delighted to see Fed beat Nadal on clay (though, as you say, there's no recovering from a four-hour semi inside 24 hours so I hardly think we'll see a repeat on June 8th); I have this little dream that we're about to see some kind of 20-match streak from Roger that overturns his 4,000-pt deficit, restores him to #1 and beats Sampras's record. Even if it only lasts until Murray takes his US Open title, it would be nice.

Yeah, the WTA's supposedly strict new rules actually have a number of loopholes which make their "mandatory" tournaments far from mandatory. Given that these loopholes were instituted to help the Williamses get out of Indian Wells, I'm sure Serena understands them! Ivanovic, Zvonareva and Sharapova also skipped Madrid, so I don't know why Serena thought she was being "forced" to do anything.

Oh yeah, Sharapova's back this week, in Warsaw. Nearly made a hash of her first singles match since last Aug - nearly blew a 6-1, 4-0 lead and 8 match points over Garbin, but pulled through in the end as Garbin responded in choking kind.

what's the UK TV coverage of this gonna be?

Safin-Supports-Gasquet is like my dream url right there, love the shit out of both of those guys. was thinking about starting an all-purpose tennis 09 thread after the gasquet incident (do we have one?) but never got around to it. of course being potentially banned this long for (alleged) recreational drug use is retarded but hey

watched most of the fed-nadal match last sunday, and while as a nadal hater the result pleased me quite a bit, i have a hard time seeing him do it again. federer was able to get a lot of cheap points on his serve and work nadal's backhand pretty well, which are two things he can rarely do to rafa on clay. of course, nadal playing a tough match with djokovic the day before probably didnt do him any favors. nadal only had 12 winners!!

The "trivalry" is really a quadrivalry at RG, because Verdasco is a beast now.

Qualifying done, draws out (men's, women's), it starts tomorrow! Quick predictions for the 4R and on...

Men's -

4R: Rafa, Fit Dave, King Kolya, Naked Fernando, Mopey, Sexxxpanek, Gorila, Youzhny, Del Pony, Principality, Boredo, Nole, Anita, Crivoi, Chardy, Fed
QF: Rafa, Naked Fernando, Mopey, Gorila, Del Pony, Nole, Anita, Fed
SF: Rafa, Mopey, Nole, Fed
F: Rafa, Nole
Champ: Rafa

Women's -

4R: Safina, Caravane, CSN, BAG, Vesnina, ALG, Shriek, Li, Jankovic, WozDen, AMG, Demented, Sweta, Batty, Flavia Flav, Silliams
QF: Safina, BAG, Vesnina, Shriek, WozDen, Demented, Sweta, Silliams
SF: Safina, Shriek, WozDen, Sweta
F: Safina, Sweta
Champ: Sweta

oh, those were c/ped from the tennis board I frequent, so there may be some unfamiliar nicknames in there

Somewhat surprised that Radek Stepanek is twelve days older than first-round opponent Gastón Gaudio!

vague analysis -

HORRID draw for the Williamses. Venus gets Lisicki (who beat her in Charleston) or Safarova (who took a set off her in Rome) in 2R, then Szavay (who took a set off her in Acapulco) or Vesnina (who has really improved dramatically this year) in 3R. Suspect she'll lose to Lisicki again, but Lisicki will lose to the more consistent Vesnina. Silliams, on the other hand, gets Zakopalova in 1R - they played 1R in Marbella a few weeks ago and Zakopalova won, setting off Silliams' current losing streak! Can't see it happening again though, and Vaidisova in 2R is more of a name than a threat right now. But Silliams is in bad enough form that SURELY even Sweta can't fuck it up in the QF - historically a good round to take Silliams out in.

Really soft draw for Sharapova to make her return - Petrova in the 2R should beat her, but we know what Nadia is like with matches she should win easily. And then poor Bepa 3 has pulled out, leaving that section of the draw really open...

Horribly easy draw for Roddick. Even with his clay ineptitude I can't see any real threats in his section.

Federer got Nole in his half = cementing the Rafa win.

Women's tournament is Safina's to lose, and she will probably oblige us in that regard.

The current big story in women's tennis won't be at RG. Alexandra Dulgheru, a Romanian teenager ranked 201, came through the qualifying to win her first ever WTA tournament in Warsaw this week - a huge achievement. She missed RG qualies because of it, but she should be at Wimbledon...

Actually, it's also a really good draw for Mauresmo...which of course means she'll play passive loopy crap which will get blown away by ALG in the 1st round.

"Federer got Nole in his half = cementing the Rafa win."

But Nadal got Verdasco in his quarter. Verdasco's chances of beating Nadal on clay are probably higher than Fed's (yes yes, Fed finally beat him on clay last week, I know).

hmm, Rafa's beaten Verdasco twice this clay season already and didn't drop a set either time...the amazing AO match seems more like Verdasco zoning, in retrospect, rather than something likely to happen again. if anything clay will help Rafa more, b/c Verdasco can't just blow him away with the FH.

i forgot it started today - early winners are A-Pav and Li.

first couple of epic chokes in the bag - Karlovic loses from two sets up against Lleyt the Llout (insert a MILLION rolleyes in here), while Mathilde Johansson blows EIGHT match points - four with double faults LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL women's tennis - against Slam debutante Vitalia Diatchenko to lose 8-10 in the third. It's all good though, I was supporting VITA! VITA! VITA! anyway

Apparently Tatiana Golovin is commentating on French TV...there goes that promising career :(

hmm, Rafa's beaten Verdasco twice this clay season already and didn't drop a set either time...the amazing AO match seems more like Verdasco zoning, in retrospect, rather than something likely to happen again. if anything clay will help Rafa more, b/c Verdasco can't just blow him away with the FH.

Verdasco was up 4-0 in the second in madrid, and he was up 30-0 on Nadal's serve at 4-4 in the first.

It was not an easy match for Nadal at all.

Good call on Mome v ALG, lex! (Didn't see it, so I dunno if it was passive loopy crap though.)

Karlovic loses from two sets up against Lleyt the Llout

Revenge for '03? Doesn't get him the #1 ranking though. It's not a ladder system.

New aces record in the process, by the way. 55 I think it was.

Keothavong (or something) on her way to "eating" a double bagel against Marat's sis. strange, i was fairly sure i saw some pretty good results from her lately.

Jeez, talk about coming down to earth with a bump. Yeah, Keothavong is inside the top 50 and became the first British woman since Jo Durie in 1983 to make a clay-court semi in Warsaw last week (I think Durie's semi probably WAS the French - losing to Jausovec). That's just embarrassing.

Rafa and Rog both through in 3. Starchy benefits from a retirement.

still haven't seen a point of this yet, boo...no eurosport any more so i guess i'll be hunting for live streams.

Couple of WTF upsets - Flavia Flav losing ONE AND ONE to Alexa Glatch - surely down to some sort of injury! Kirilenko losing to the Australian WC Olivia Rogowska is perplexing, too. The Chak Attack lost to Duque Marino, too - technically also an upset, sadly less surprising.

On the men's side, Berdman lost to Bolelli. Pretty much every other seed of note went through, even Safin.

i hate bartoli so much

i can watch a lot of matches on the tennis channel but i woke up at noon today (EDT) and i missed most of the matches i'd have been interested in, apparently. fuck if i care about radwanska-de los rios

hahaha i was just thinking that i was never going to see any first week matches because coverage stops @ 12:00 edt

i just checked and tomorrow espn2 will run coverage from 1230-6pm, dunno why they're not doing that today

oh also bartoli is gross and lame and i predict that venus will save like eight match points in the first three rounds and then crush whichever "promising" "talent" she plays next like 1, 2.

that "practice serve" shit she does makes me want to punch her. shes so awkward and boring :(

I love Bartoli, mental service action and all, step off. I would've totally watched Bartoli/Parmentier.

Batty out to K-Bond, hurrah - and what is this, Wozniacki a set and a break down to Dushevina?!

I still kind of love Bartoli too. I'm even charmed by her silly short interview on the roland garros site, where she mentions how she loves spider solitaire.

Looking forward to seeing some good matches.

Vaidisova can't even beat semi-retired doubles specialists any more: gone in straight sets to VRP. Hanturexia follows, losing to La Razz; WozDen, who recovered from a set and a break down yesterday, wraps up Dushevina with no problems today.

I was hopeful that we'd see a rare triple bagel for Schittler as he lost the first 13 games (at least) to Gicquel, but the third set ended up as a boring 6-4. AUS teenage hope Tomic gets killed by Kohlschreiber.

Big story right now: Silliams has blown a 6-3, 5-3 lead and multiple match points against Zakopalova, and we're in a third! NB: Zakopalova beat her a few weeks ago in Marbella, kickstarting her current slump...

I wonder how much of a horror show Dokic/Sprem is.

serena is looking really, really bad right now. she's down a break in the third set, but i havent seen her play this...nonchalantly in a while. not moving her feet, netting easy balls, going for too much way too early in points

aaaand just like that we're on serve silliams up 3-2

Silliams with the break now.

Zakopalova saves another three MPS when serving at *2-5!!!

And then breaks Serena to 15!!!

Zakopalova zoning...why does Serena persist in feeding her BH?

2 match pts for serena

Zakopalova missed a couple of easy shots, started pouting, and it was over - Silliams through on her ninth MP.

So far today, Murray dropped a set to Potito Starace but won anyways, Sharapova beat Petrova 6-2 in the first set, and Ivanovic is rolling over Tammy.

Nadia Petrova is actually the most useless tennis player ever, right?

Maybe Hanturexia, though.

Was also surprised to see Szlumping Szavay thrash Vesnina so comprehensively.

I really hope Zheng can come back against Larcher de Screamo...

Petrova is the worst, that is true. Has anybody been able to watch the match to see if Sharapova has been looking sharp or if it's typical Petrova choke? Sad thing about French Open and Wimbledon is that I can't actually watch any of the matches except over the weekend.

The BBC player is so tantalising but I have work to do...

Well, it's Petrova and Shriekapova, so not THAT tantalising. I'll tune in if it gets close.

anyone know a good place to stream matches online? the ones on chann3lsurfing.n3t either keep stalling or won't load at all. i'm not in the UK/US so official streams won't work for me. :(

Petrova is now up 5-1 and on the serve in the second set, but the "exciting" thing about her game is that she could still easily lose the set.

She got that set and took it to 6-6 in the third. Had a BP on Shriek at that point, missed it, and in the next game double faulted to give Shriek a match point and then smacked a stupid FH into the tramlines to seal what we all knew was inevitable. Useless!

Let's just pause to remember that time Petrova lost to Silliams at the AO 07 from 6-1, 5-2 up, when Silliams was fat and ranked like 80-something.

And that time when, having somehow got herself in the position of being a favourite to win RG (LOL, as if), she went out 2 and 2 to Mpaperfolding in round one.

Useless!

Oh yeah, and that time last year when Demented tried her best to essay an epic choke against her at Wimbledon, but Petrova just wouldn't let her lose!

The No.1 is surely a minor side-issue, right? Fed is not the player he was. I'll be surprised if ever has another year of any kind of dominance, and if he wins today +1 more Wimbledon (or not) I can see a retirement from the game.

yeah, that would be good. just retire on the spot with the Wimbledon trophy in your hand. He's going to be a dad, what else can he win etc. otherwise he might play for 3 year more years, struggle to a couple of slam semi's maybe a final or two.. but it isn't worth the trouble, i'd say.

as for today, Fed in 4 sets, Sod is going to take one set in a tie-break.

I really wish I knew why it was the case but I have so much less problem with Federer's run as a dominant player than I had with Sampras's. And I don't hate Sampras!

It's because Sampras was a huge cock.

Fed comfy on his way to a fast 6-0 first set here.

if this will be a 6-0 6-2 6-1 thing it'll be just like Ferrero - Verkerk, where Verkerk had played super throughout the tournament and then fail hopelessly in the end.

steamroll ahead

Federer is playing so well right now.

holy shit wtf is going on?

some clown ran on court waving a flag and got shockingly close to federer - looked like he was trying to put the flag over his head?? that dude needs shooting. luckily fed doesn't seem affected by it.

that was scary yo. fed looked a little unnerved there but recovered quickly enough.

oh man i hope this drizzle doesn't get any heavier.

Come on Fed!

Missed the first hour but returned in time to see a ridiculously well-executed tie-break. 6-2 3rd set, I reckon.

(Fatherhood changes everything - I had no idea it was due during Wimbledon fortnight, jeez that's bad planning - but I figured he'd stick around and have a go at one more Olympics, seeing as it's SW19 and all. But perhaps not with a kid around. 15 Slams and the #1 ranking plus a baby - you wouldn't fancy the North American hardcourt season much, would you?)

i read that the baby was due in the post-wimbledon downtime...

come on fed, close this quickly. i need to leave the house in 45 minutes and tbh i care more about seeing his reaction than any more tennis.

what... i thought his baby was due in August? xp

Fed to serve for the match, and to be the Undisputed GOAT...

OMG chokey drive volley to give Soderling BP.

Didn't need to hit so huge on those two points but Sod lets him off... Back to deuce. MATCH POINT.

Get in!!!

WIN! And tears before he even gets to the net.

YAY!

Uh-oh - getting legend ex-champ to present trophy = probable floods from Rog.

oh he's totally gonna bawl

The No.1 is surely a minor side-issue, right? Fed is not the player he was. I'll be surprised if ever has another year of any kind of dominance, and if he wins today +1 more Wimbledon (or not) I can see a retirement from the game.

He's made something like 18 grand slam semis in a row, and has won 5 US Opens in a row. With Nadal seemingly on the decline, I don't see why a handful of slam titles aren't in Federer's future.

how is Nadal on the decline?? one surprise early exit, which had to happen someday...he's still won more tournaments than anyone else this year. it's federer who isn't just on the decline, he HAS declined and he now needs some real breaks to win any tournament. which may well happen at 1-2 more slams.

he's taking off queen's club because of "knee problems" and is "hopeful" that he can play Wimbledon. This after the aforementioned early exit and losing to Fed in Madrid.

Looking ominous.

i don't see federer retiring too early. he loves the game too much and i imagine he'll keep playing as long as he stays fit. another couple of years at least. and while i don't think he was ready to let go of his no. 1 ranking last year, now that he's won the french and tied sampras' record, going back to no. 1 prob isn't as important anymore.

as for rafa, we don't know how serious that knee injury is - it's too early to call it any kind of decline anyway. he could take two weeks off to rest and come back fitter than ever or it could set him back the rest of the year. we'll see.

I really wish I knew why it was the case but I have so much less problem with Federer's run as a dominant player than I had with Sampras's. And I don't hate Sampras!

maybe there were many more alternate players you liked in the Sampras era?

Mm possibly but few names stand out beyond Agassi. Because I sure as hell couldn't give a care about Jim Courier, say.

as a serve-and-volleyer myself i look up to sampras like crazy, hate it when ppl hate on him

He's made something like 18 grand slam semis in a row

20 to be exact.

Always half-suspected that Nadal would burn out fairly early on - these teenage prodigies doesn't necessarily just keep on winning. Becker had four Slams by the age of 21 and was apparently ready to dominate the '90s but it took him the rest of his career to win another two and he only ever spent 12 weeks as #1. Nadal has obviously already surpassed that but I do wonder whether he can sustain this.

Really, I just want to see them both near the top of their game for another couple of years.

It's way premature to start talking about decline and burn-out over a knee injury which "may" take, what, a month to heal? A few weeks out ≠ a major injury. Of course, it could well be more serious - we don't know the details - but people have been predicting that Nadal's body won't hold up with his style of play for years now, and yet he's barely suffered more than a few minor niggles over the years.

I seriously can't remember who my favourite Sampras-era player was. Possibly that grumpy money-loving contrarian Kafelnikov. Loved Guga, too.

Roll of honour!

Men's singles: Roger Federer
Women's singles: Svetlana Kuznetsova
Men's doubles: Lukas Dlouhy & Leander Paes
Women's doubles: Anabel Medina Garrigues & Virginia Ruano Pascual
Mixed doubles: Bob Bryan & Liezel Huber
Boys' singles: Daniel Berta
Girls' singles: Kristina Mladenovic
Boys' doubles: Marin Draganja & Dino Marcan
Girls' doubles: Elena Bogdan & Noppawan Lertcheewakarn

*home winner in the girls' singles! Mladenovic was wildcarded into both the AO and RG senior main draws, too, and took a set off Schnyder at the AO and Rybarikova here. Looks like she has a good future ahead of her.

but people have been predicting that Nadal's body won't hold up with his style of play for years now, and yet he's barely suffered more than a few minor niggles over the years[

also Nadal seems talented enough to adopt some other game-plan and still do well. as for his injury, if it is any serious (and I was Nadal) i'd consider focusing on the hardcourt season and win the US Open, that would make 2 players complete the quartet in a year.

New rankings -

1. Dinara Safina (1)
2. Serena Williams (2)
3. Venus Williams (3)
4. Elena Dementieva (4)
5. Svetlana Kuznetsova (7)
6. Jelena Jankovic (5)
7. Vera Zvonareva (6)
8. Victoria Azarenka (9)
9. Caroline Wozniacki (10)
10. Nadia Petrova (11)
11. Agnieszka Radwanska (12)
12. Marion Bartoli (13)
13. Ana Ivanovic (8)
14. Dominika Cibulkova (19)
15. Flavia Pennetta (14)
16. Jie Zheng (15)
17. Amélie Mauresmo (16)
18. Samantha Stosur (32)
19. Anabel Medina Garrigues (20)
20. Na Li (25)
21. Patty Schnyder (17)
22. Alizé Cornet (21)
23. Aleksandra Wozniak (24)
24. Kaia Kanepi (18)
25. Virginie Razzano (36)
26. Alisa Kleybanova (23)
27. Sorana Cirstea (41)
28. Sybille Bammer (29)
29. Agnes Szavay (31)
30. Alona Bondarenko (28)
...
73. Maria Sharapova (102)
...
90. Michelle Larcher de Brito (132)

men's -

1. Rafael Nadal (1)
2. Roger Federer (2)
3. Andy Murray (3)
4. Novak Djokovic (4)
5. Juan Martin Del Potro (5)
6. Andy Roddick (6)
7. Gilles Simon (7)
8. Fernando Verdasco (8)
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
10. Fernando González (12)
11. Nikolay Davydenko (11)
12. Robin Soderling (25)
13. Marin Cilic (13)
14. Gaël Monfils (10)
15. Tommy Robredo (17)
16. James Blake (16)
17. David Nalbandian (15)
18. David Ferrer (14)
19. Stanislas Wawrinka (18)
20. Richard Gasquet (21)
21. Tomas Berdych (20)
22. Radek Stepanek (19)
23. Marat Safin (22)
24. Philipp Kohlschreiber (31)
25. Mardy Fish (24)
26. Igor Andreev (27)
27. Dmitry Tursunov (23)
28. Jürgen Melzer (26)
29. Ivo Karlovic (28)
30. Feliciano López (30)

My favorite Sampras-era player was Agassi; also Michael Chang if he counts as the same era.

I want Fed to just go on and on. The persistent criticism of his achievements (usually from Sampras fans) is that he's won the lion's share of his Slams against fairly weak opposition (Baggy, Scud, Gonzo, a 35-y-o Agassi, etc).

The argument is usually along the lines that Sampras's immediate contemporaries (Agassi/Courier/Chang/Rafter) were of a much higher calibre than Fed's (Hewitt/Roddick/Safin...) and the half-generation preceding (Edberg/Wilander/Becker/etc) were much better than the crop of players born in the mid-'70s than were in the ascendant when Rog turned pro (er, Henman/Rios/Moya/Kafelnikov?). The counter to that is that the half-generation after Roger are very, very good indeed (Murray/Djokovic/Nadal) and Sampras didn't have such young whippersnappers wrecking his title campaigns in his late 20s.

I don't think this line of thinking holds much water but, just to be sure, I'd be glad to see Roger regain #1 for a spell and win at least 3-4 more Slams right in the heart of the Rafa/Nole/Andy era. Just to really rub it in.

That pro-Sampras argument can be hoist on its own petard...because the bulk of Sampras's Slams came at Wimbledon in an era when there were, frankly, no champion-quality grass courters on the tour. The mid to late 90s, after Edberg had retired and Becker was elderly/retired, and Sampras racked up like 9580503 Wimbledons. I mean, who was there? Agassi was dropping in and out of the game back then, and wasn't a grass expert anyway. Rafter only came into his own right at the end of his career, and I'd hardly call him a potentially dominant champion. Ivanisevic was a one-dimensional flake. The other men of Slam-winning calibre - Kuerten, Moya, Kafelnikov - were non-factors on grass. Who else was there? Henman, Martin, Pioline? LOL. Yeah, Sampras's era was SO much better than Fed's!!!

Plus, it's a natural corollary of anyone being as dominant as Fed that their contemporaries' resumés will suffer, because there are just fewer Slam titles to go round. If one man is winning so many, then the others...will be winning less. I don't see Hewitt/Roddick/Safin as any less talented than Courier/Chang/Kafelnikov (and tbh their accomplishments are pretty equal anyway).

Really, the only possible argument against Fed being the GOAT is the "how can he be GOAT when he isn't even the greatest of his own era" re: Nadal, and that will only hold water if Nadal goes on to win 14+ Slams...their h2h isn't nearly as lopsided as it's made out to be, and Nadal's lead is very much to due to over half their matches being played on clay.

also due to the fact that federer is much older than rafa!! nadal started his ascent just as federer began to plateau

Lex: Dead right. I've seen the pro-Sampras argument chase its own tail a few times on tennis boards..."LOL, Fed struggled to beat an ancient Agassi...but Sampras had to contend with legends like Lendl and McEnroe early in his career." And they were 23 or something, were they?

also due to the fact that federer is much older than rafa!

Well, it's only five years' difference and if you're the GOAT then you should be able to hold your own for a bit in your middle years rather than just capitulate as soon as the new guard appear. It didn't look good when he lost five in a row to RN (and started losing more often than not to Murray and Djokovic too) but he may be in for a better spell against the kids of '86-'87. Who is in the next wave?

not all of them are from 86-87 but i guess now there's del potro, monfils, tsonga, cilic and simon. plus gulbis ('88), who is quite possibly the most naturally talented player i've seen in ages but bit of a mental weakling. might get better once he gets older tho.

really i think fed's more than held his own so far - 20 slam semis in a row, and 15 out of 16 consecutive finals is pretty fucking unimaginable to me. i don't see Nadal (or anyone else) repeating this particular feat at all anytime soon, even if Fed retires right now.

yeah Gulbis is so talented - word is that he's not as motivated though, he comes from a v wealthy family. I definitely consider Del Potro and Tsonga as being on the brink of the elite, just a level beneath the Big Four.

the 15/16 finals is incredible - for all that Djokovic and Murray have been beating Fed more and more in tour events...they're not even close to bringing that sort of form to the Slams yet.

Before the final I wrote elsewhere - if Rog does win this...what will he be like afterwards! Still feeling the pressure of trying to beat, rather than just tie, the record? (Even though with the Full House there'd be no doubt that he's the GOAT.) Re-imbued with his old JesusFed confidence? Relaxes too much at finally fulfilling his destiny and starts losing earlier and earlier (Dad mode rather than God mode)?

Now...I think the first option is least likely. This title was the hump, he's over it now, everything from here on in is icing. I'd guess that he has a spell of God mode as afterglow, maybe even coasts to Wimbledon with Rafa out/injured, but give it another year and things might start slipping. Doubt he'll consider retiring until after the 2012 Olympics though.

Arguably the 'goal' if he still has one to drive for would be 20, I guess.

yeah, i was jut thinking that the only question worth contemplating is not whether he's GOAT, but just how many slam titles he'll have when he retires. i'd say 16 as a minimum, maybe 20 as a max? (if he stays healthy etc.)

I say...17! Wimbledon this year to make 15, picks one up next year, then enters a drought as he declines properly and Djokovic/Murray improve even more, then picks one up at the end of his career like Sampras did. the question for me is, does he get the Olympic singles gold medal? It'll be played at Wimbledon in 2012...

I don't think Djokovic/Murray are gonna be the guys who do it.

I would think he would be pushed now to try to reach Sampras' 7 wimbledon titles.

Djokovic said his goal for this year was to "maintain his ranking, maybe pass Andy." That says a lot about Novak.

have to say that fed still seems scarily fit as hell. his serve failing him + less accuracy in general seem to be his biggest problems these days but his usual power, speed and stamina are all there. I mean he played so many four/five set matches in this French Open yet didn't seem tired at all after any of them whereas someone like novak esp. seems really susceptible to fatigue.

i dont think novak will really challenge for the #1 - hes not mentally there and yah he seems to tire easily. hes a threat but imo he just doesnt have what it takes to really fuck w/ fed or nadal long term

a cop out but i think that predicting fed's total # of slams is impossible simply because its seems impossible to predict how he plays in any given tournament. physically he still has an amazing game and tactically i dont think anyone can outplay him but i still remember him just breaking down in miami this year - total wtf. and both of his wins this year are on clay so he still has it in him to be really dominant again, i think, he beat nadal in spain! but really i dont see it mentally.