What examples of risk analysis/decision theory akin to Pascal's Wager have you seen or participated in?

To refresh your memory Pascal's Wager said you better believe in god because the consequences of not believing in god are terrible.

What other similar examples have you seen?
For example this one on why you should take action against global warming:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF_anaVcCXg

Also, e-mailing random chicks on internet dating sites sort of falls within the premises of Pascal's Wager. The worst that can happen is that random e-mail recipient blocks you (and for some dumb reason you recall what happened to fellow ILXors and they tell you that you are a creepy weirdo). The best that can happen is that you hook up with a chick who may actually end up being the one you marry.

Basically we have:
guilt of coming off as creepy to a stranger you will probably never see VERSUS possibly meeting the guy/gal of your dreams

This is kind of like when Boomhower teaches Bobby how to pick up chicks by hitting on every single lady at the discount show sale :p
If you have no shame then you got more game and if you do meet that person of your dreams than I suppose it was worth it to try internet dating sites. Of course there are alternative ways to meeting people but internet dating is basically a winning scenario if you can handle a whole lot of rejections from people you'll probably never meet. Take it from Boomhower

Captain, is this your way of trying to get everyone to endorse your e-mailing of random chicks on internet dating sites?

somehow i don't think that's what pascal had in mind

I liked how on this show Hank Hill is all:
"Jesus + Rock doesn't make Christianity better; it just makes Rock bad."

I'm not sure how this refutes Pascal's Wager. Maybe he didn't consider the possible rise of Creed as a pitfall of Christianity.

i thought this said Pascal's Wagner and I was all

http://thesucculentwife.com/wp-content/uploads/short-inc-viking-hat.jpg

141. Men spend their time in following a ball or a hare; it is the pleasure even of kings.

someone should do a pensee poll

Also, e-mailing random chicks on internet dating sites sort of falls within the premises of Pascal's Wager.

please learn from other's mistakes and don't revive and relive past humiliations ...

uh back to pascal's wager or kill thread

I don't want to revive past humiliations or have people endorse me for e-mailing random chicks. I just want examples of things that fall in the premises of pascal's wager.

Wasn't the thrust of Pascal's Wager that it assumes no downside, plenty upside, which is rarely true since there are always opportunity costs, so email spam is probably as close to fulfilling those conditions as you could get. Does the global warming thing count? Stopping greenhouse emissions is a pretty costly undertaking.

It is not certain that everything is uncertain.

I get what you are saying. Perhaps we should focus on wages where the pros definitely outweigh the cons. Like algae as a biofuel or growing algae in the oceans to eat up carbon emissions for example.

starting this thread is a good example of pascal's wager, because if you didn't start it, we would all still be judging you for stalking that chick, but since you did start it, you convinced ilx that you were right after all.

Also, e-mailing random chicks on internet dating sites sort of falls within the premises of Pascal's Wager.

let

it

go

Someone sad about thread getting locked.

I was sad that thread got locked ... I was waiting for the next plot turn in what promised to be an epic clusterfuck ...

Some people argue that there is a downside to Pascal's Wager. So even that supposedly has a downside. But what other wagers have minimal downsides?

you better believe Captain Lorax is a sock, because the consequences of him being real are just too much to handle

http://www.objectiveministries.org/gametheory/

arg Im going to go cut my wrists now. I WAS NOT TRYING TO REVIVE THAT THREAD.

Enough baiting. Applying for cool, if unlikely jobs - probably won't get it, but if you don't apply then you definitely won't.

<3 Objective Ministries

""Diamond" Jack Holgroth is a Game Theoretician who currently teaches a course in Advanced Game Theory for Theologians at Fellowship University. He served our country during the Cold War as a Game Theory Tactician for the Department of Defense and single-handedly developed an elegant solution to the "Fisherman's Quandary", a game theory problem that was crucial to the winning of the arms race and that was famously intractable - until Diamond Jack came along. Jack also enjoys vexillology and can signal Bible passages from memory in fluent semaphore."

"Greetings, I'm Captain Lorax."

http://www.objectiveministries.org/members/diamondjack.jpg

Lotto tickets.

that picture is so great

Captain Lorax, you clean up real good

Wasn't the thrust of Pascal's Wager that it assumes no downside, plenty upside, which is rarely true since there are always opportunity costs, so email spam is probably as close to fulfilling those conditions as you could get. Does the global warming thing count? Stopping greenhouse emissions is a pretty costly undertaking.

If you're going to be bring in opportunity costs, there's a big downside to Pascal's Wager because if you spend your whole life worshiping a non-existing god, you wasted hundreds of hours in church(if you went to church) and reading the bible (assuming you ever read it). I don't think Pascal's Wager hinges so much on a no downside vs plenty of upside situation as much as a comparison between two options where one vastly outweighs the other.

I've heard the Pascal's Wager argument made for GHG emissions, and I'm definitely sympathetic to the idea, but I'd prefer to avoid using it as an argument because:

1) Unlike the existence of God, or as I call it, Catbeast, climate change is grounded in science and can be proved or disproved
2) There are many, many convincing FACT-BASED arguments to be made for mitigating climate change on the grounds of food security, national security, economics, and so on.

http://www.objectiveministries.org/gametheory/militantatheists.html

http://www.objectiveministries.org/mallmission/darthmaul.jpg

"Darth Maul": Commercialized symbol of evil whose name sounds like "mall". Coincidence?
http://www.objectiveministries.org/mallmission/

http://www.objectiveministries.org/mallmission/secularbeards.gif

The forces of Secularism just keep trying. It would be comical if it weren't so dastardly.

haaa i was just gonna post that beard gif

the juxt. of kathy griffin & patty hearst makes me think this is an onion pranksite.

http://www.objectiveministries.org/gametheory/godlyflag.html

http://www.objectiveministries.org/gametheory/usflagmed.gif

The current Flag of the United States of America (for the benefit of non-Americans and poorly educated Public School graduates). While beautiful, an ignorant foreigner might mistakenly suspect we were Astrologists or some sort of Stripe Fetishists instead of proper Christians.

http://www.objectiveministries.org/gametheory/godlyusflag.gif

Our proposed new version of the U.S. Flag. This design makes it visually clear that we are a Godly nation.

omg abbott's link!

http://i25.tinypic.com/200wxw5.jpg

typical behavior = drinking and reading? lol

I guess I'd definitely qualify

http://www.objectiveministries.org/gametheory/conquest_planet_apes.jpg
Fig. 10 — Dramatized Atheist uprising

Objective Ministries is a parody site done by some people who were so thorough about blurring the lines that the included a section on shutting down the Landover Baptist parody website. Objective Ministries is amazing.

Don't give us the silent treatment, Cap'n.

http://www.objectiveministries.org/babyj/

k that makes a lot more sense

really well done imo

I was gonna guess that it was a real church that happened to hire an ironic webpage design company

xp goole: Planet of the Apes 4 was really awesome ... it definitely ran counter to the received wisdom that sequels get progressively worse.

I'm going to continue thinking that site is for real. I like the world better that way!

http://www.objectiveministries.org/shutdown/the_internet.jpg
The Internet: An American invention built on Faith.

suckered! >_<

http://www.objectiveministries.org/kidz/

I love how adorably Hopsiah says, "Shalom!"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Triclavianism

hilarious, i love shit like this

If climate change is truly that destructive, I can just recant on my deathbed.

Hey, Habu...
How many gods do you have?

Habu says: 'I don't know... I lost count!'

Wouldn't you rather have just one God who loves you a bunch than a bunch of gods that don't love you at all?

Jesus loves everybody, even the unsaved like Habu! Remember to pray for Habu and others like him that they may find Jesus and accept Him into their hearts!

I'm now a little concerned actual born-agains will successfully convert people using materials from these sites.

at least they'll learn shit about game theory

http://www.objectiveministries.org/zounds/gaming.html

Here's a thought to pass on to any unsaved gamerz you know:

“U save ur game b4 u die... shouldn't u let Jesus save ur soul b4 u die IRL?”

Pascal's Wager scores another point versus the "Anti-Pascal's Wager". You don't have to convert to Christianity until right before you are about to die.

I am a vegetarian because of Pascal's wager!