ILX OSCAR POLL 2010: Who is gonna win the Oscar?

i def think it's gonna be one of the first three, no question

District 9 director guy might as well just stay home

i think avatar or precious.

district 9 is pretty much a lock at this point haha xxp

the bigs will get best director i reckon.

notorious B.I.G.E.L.O.W.

it between Hurt Locker and Avatar no question, and whichever doesn't get Best Picture will win Best Director. I'm guessing Avatar for pic, Bigelow for Director.

I mean
Avatar = Lord Of The Rings/Titanic/Braveheart/Dances With Wolves
Precious = Forrest Gump/Schindler's List/Driving Miss Daisy
Hurt Locker = Crash/Silence Of The Lambs/Platoon

Avatar is such a shitty movie how the fuck

best guess is that Avatar/Bigelow split, but ya never know... I am still half-expecting a cable-news debate about whether THL is Left or Right.

Whiney, on what basis do you think Precious has a better shot than Up in the Air? (Not that either really do at this point, but.)

more like Precious = Crash

(not winning tho)

why does precious = crash?

it has black people in it

reduces social ills to broad, risible stereotypes

Whiney, on what basis do you think Precious has a better shot than Up in the Air?

i just figure it's one of those movies where the message and sentiment outweighs whether its an actual good movie.

why does precious = crash?

I can imagine Jack Nicholson gleefully mispronouncing PRESH-SEE-IOUS as he opens the Best Picture envelope.

how do you mispronounce "crash"? or am i missing something?

He also said CA-POH-TAY.

as if he were thinking of "Anne Hathaway's tittays"

weren't we all, though?

Sandra Bullock practices the dark arts, Blind Side will win.

will Baldwin or Martin make a blue state/blue people joke?

i just figure it's one of those movies where the message and sentiment outweighs whether its an actual good movie.

Yeah, OK, I just don't think it was ever expected it to be a serious contender, whereas Up in the Air was at one point (though its momentum has since faded).

During the year of Brokeback I was thinking of Jake's johnson.

Results 1 - 10 of about 237,000 for anne hathaway's tittays

Doesn't anyone else think that Inglorious has at least the sliiiiiightest chance of pulling this? I can totally see a lot of academy members rankling at the thought of voting for Avatar and splitting the vote in any number of fractuous directions. Like, aside from Avatar, wasn't IB the most popular of the legit contenders?

i wish

hurt locker has multiple things going for it, among them being that james cameron is lobbying for bigelow to win best director (which could lead to a best picture win) and apparently kathryn bigelow is really, really well-liked. also: the hurt locker is a film that doesn't have any bright blue aliens.

but i think it's a close call, probably one of those two w/bigelow winning for director.

Doesn't anyone else think that Inglorious has at least the sliiiiiightest chance of pulling this?

It did win SAG Ensemble, and the actors are the biggest voting bloc in the Academy, so it's not totally dead in the water. But the momentum would have to swing in its favor pretty quickly at this point.

It is totally dead in the water.

Well, I wanted to be diplomatic.

Doesn't anyone else think that Inglorious has at least the sliiiiiightest chance of pulling this? - I could see def see QT with a director statue waaaay before IB taking BP.

Avatar will (undeservedly but justifiably) win best picture, but Pixar's UP was last year's best, most daring, most original etc.

Bigelow best director b/c she's a woman (among several other non-artistic criteria). Tarantino did a much better job.

Jeff Bridges will get best actor, but the protagonists from Distric 9 and A Serious Man deserved at the very least a nomination.

Christoph Waltz has no competition whatsoever.

Un Prophete is one of the best movies of all time, but White Ribbon will probably win.

The thing is, lots of great movies last year, but the Academy voting process still sucks, too much cronyism (Clooney again??? Why?) and technophobia.

Pixar's UP was last year's best, most daring, most original etc.

My GOD, what were you watching?

Everything. See, I consider UP an almost subversive movie: it starts w/ preteen romance quickly followed by the death of a loved one. Then it presents us an "ethnic" orphan, an embittered old guy bent on suicide and a talking dog. It talks about family losses and frustrated hero worship. At the same time, it looks beautiful and makes an excellent, in-depth use of 3D. If you kill Hitler and his minions one million times inside a locked movie theater in France, you still can't possibly top UP's narrative and thematic boldness, variety of mood and complexity beneath the glossy surface. It's a movie that aims to tell you what's the meaning of life after life has seemingly passed you by.

If only the rest of the movie lived up to the first ten minutes. Most of the dialogue between Old Guy, the orphan, and the dog is right out of the Disney playbook circa 1959.

Watching the opening montage in Up with my family this past November was one of the most beautiful/heartbreaking experiences I've had recently, or perhaps ever, but that was for mainly personal reasons (which perhaps you know about & have been discussed elsewhere on ILX). Still though, I did see it last summer as well & so I can still look at it objectively & I really think it is Pixar's masterstroke (thusfar). The rest of the film was a pleasant romp & so the whole thing doesn't quite attain Wall-E status or anything, but still, great fucking opening.

yeah, everybody loves the marriage montage. There's 90 other minutes in the film.

it's subversive as in that you don't expect the brilliant talking dogs + Doug + cone after that magical marriage montage. The bird and the boy I can forget.

If more nominations means more general chance for a BP win (which it mostly does), then Basterds is in the top three contenders, not Precious.

And it is. And I hope it wins.

WALL-E's first 20 minutes >>>>>>>> Up's first seven minutes

avatah

i think inglorious basterds will win

Christoph Waltz has no competition whatsoever.

Is there anyone anywhere who's disputing this? Like, I'm seriously curious. This is as much of a gimme as this year's special effects statue.

I think Hurt Locker will take it. Up in the Air seems to have lost its momentum as said above, though Avatar still has a shot. Bigelow seems a shoo-in for Director regardless.

I'd like to but can't really see her taking both, thinking Avatar but really hoping I'm jinxing it

director / picture splits are pretty rare, no?

hurt locker has multiple things going for it, among them being that james cameron is lobbying for bigelow to win best director (which could lead to a best picture win) and apparently kathryn bigelow is really, really well-liked. also: the hurt locker is a film that doesn't have any bright blue aliens.

― ('_') (omar little), Tuesday, February 2, 2010 3:06 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

i think this is good logic

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2010/poll/oscarpoll-results

I think Bigelow is a lock for director. No woman has ever won best director. The academy loves that sort of story. - true, tho it also likes the oscar-as-belated-lifetime-achievement narrative (ala Scorsese), making QT a dark horse for BD.

QT has no lifetime achievement. Wait til he makes his The Departed, starring the corpse of John Wayne in the Nicholson role.

yeah, QT has a way to go

Let's look at the last 10 director awards:

Boyle - not career achievement
Coen - career achievement
Scorsese - career achievement
Lee - arguably career achievement (given they liked Crash better)
Eastwood - career achievement staving off "not ready yet for Scorsese"
Jackson - not career achievement
Polanski - career achievement
Howard - career achievemenet
Mendes - not career achievement
Spielberg - not career achievement

Tarantino isn't exactly outside the realm of possibility here.

Just because it's a "career achievement" award doesn't necessarily mean the career has been much of an achievement.

It would help if whoever presented the trophy said this aloud.

xp: no, but there has got to be a decent percentage of the voting contingent who feel he is owed a consolation prize for Pulp Fiction.

How is Eastwood a career achievement award? He had already won for Unforgiven. I would also question the Coen and Howard wins. They are too young for needing a "career achievement".

It's all speculation, obv, but there's very little doubt that Ron Howard's buzz centered around the notion that "he's a nice guy and has been turning in a lot of solid, respectable work." As the Mark Harris article said, it was his time.

direction is kind of annoying in Hurt Locker tbh

― NAGLfar (Whiney G. Weingarten), Tuesday, February 16, 2010 12:23 AM (10 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

explain yrself

I think Bigelow is a lock for director. No woman has ever won best director. The academy loves that sort of story.

if the academy loves that sort of story, wouldn't a woman have won best director by now?

Well, Jane Campion and Lina Wermuller were ugly and not once married to James Cameron.

She's only the 4th to even be nominated. Add Sofia Coppola to that list above, but she didn't have a hope up against Peter Jackson.

right, but wouldn't more women be nominated?

the times they are a changin'

the movie the Coens won for was generally believed to be one of their best, and they're under 60. That's no career achievement.

ya that one doesnt work.

Maybe not. I was going to call it more like an "it's convenient to award them this year and then we don't ever have to award them again," but then again they did get nominated again this year.

(Add applicable asterisk.)

They'll win more screenwriting awards.

Yeah, and so will Tarantino. (Actually, could see him never actually winning for direction but ending up with at least three screenplay awards.)

but he doesn't put out films annually like they do.

(needs time to rescreen his "inspirations")

He'll have two under his belt this time next month. That gives him plenty of time to get one last valiant effort in.

NEIN

are you actually slamming QT for watching classic films?

for making me wish I was watching them instead

when really u shld b living them

Fell asleep watching The Blind Side last night. Seriously, got about five minutes in and I'm not convinced I should make a go at the remaining minutes.

I will probably watch Anvil: The Story of Anvil tnite instead

direction is kind of annoying in Hurt Locker tbh

― NAGLfar (Whiney G. Weingarten), Tuesday, February 16, 2010 12:23 AM (10 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

explain yrself

― amuse-douche (s1ocki), Tuesday, February 16, 2010 10:28 AM (1 week ago) Bookmark

it means whiney has the hots for kathryn bigelow

Anvil is more sad than funny. Not as balanced as American Movie, which it constantly reminded me of.

If Cameron wins, he will do part of his speech in Na'Vi

W/ a moment of silence for the fallen Na'Vi.

Didn't Cameron and Tarantino say they're voting for Bigelow?

I'm resigned to whatever's gonna happen as long as Basterds loses original screenplay.

I was assuming all along that THL would win this, but after seeing Avatar last night I'm thinking it's too much of a steamroller not to win

I'm too tired to cite, but some of the prognosticators have noted IB making some last-minute headway.

It is the dark horse of this race, but I don't think it's going to win

is there any possibility reitman loses adapted screenplay? would love to watch that sulk

part of me thinks they don't want a Precious shutout, but nah, don't see it happening.

more Hurt Locker 'authenticity' scraps (ballots are due today btw):

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/01/new-twists-in-hurt-locker-brouhaha/

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

hurt locker has multiple things going for it

Esp a producer trying to win votes. Srsly I really hope she wins but I doubt it. :-(

*Oscar baits furiously*

I don't have anything to contribute other than that.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

wrong as usual

does ilx do a poll to predict the oscars every year?

who would bother to remember?

http://www.scpr.org/programs/airtalk/2010/03/05/filmweek-academy-awards-preview/

i like their weekly discussions, and this oscar discussion, but hardly seen any of this movies personally

then what's "wrong as usual" mean? just that this board is always wrong about everything?